Confirmed with Link: Blues Sign Jori Lehtera (No, not again. It was just the one time. Deep breaths.)

[MortiestOfMortys]

Marian Gaborik is 35 and his first season was 2000-2001. He's played 16 NHL seasons, has had 7 30 goal seasons, 3 40 goal seasons and has almost 800 points, 400 goals and 1000 games.

This season he has 21 points in 56 games, one less point than Lehtera in 8 less games. The last two seasons he's had a low shot% (career average is around 12, he shot around 8). He's simply aging and was given a stupid contract because he was part of a championship team. But he is still outproducing Lehtera. Why was Lehtera given a stupid contract? I don't know, because I don't know what Armstrong was thinking.

Also, what form is Lehtera regaining? Are you claiming that a 23 game sample size is more credible than a 195 game sample size?

Nooooooooo. No that's not at all what I'm doing. But pretending like a 44 point season and a 34 point season are worthless is just as ridiculous. And DESPITE the fact that he has been as bad as he's been this year, he's STILL managed to post 22 points. Is that what you want out of a player you were hoping to be a 1C? Of course not. But expectations are a helluva drug. Set them aside, it's not that bad.

This theory that Hitch may have ruined him could have merit, but have you noticed a dramatic change in the way he plays? He simply scored at a unsustainable rate and as one should've expected, dropped off a cliff. His game is the same.

If teams figured out how to shutdown Lehtera, why is the book on Tarasenko so hard? 21 points in 23 games is an incredible scoring rate. If a player is truly elite, he can sustain scoring at this rate because he is too good to stop. It's why Ovechkin has been such a lethal scorer over his career despite everyone knowing about his one timer.

Go ask any other of the 100's of players that have come into the league, lit it on fire for a short time, and then got shut down never to be heard from again. Also, why are you trying to say that I'm saying Lehtera is elite? Why are you comparing him to Alex freaking Ovechkin? That's an awfully unfair comparison, in pretty much any way you slice it.

There's an off chance Vegas takes him simply to help cap. But even of they need to reach the floor, there will be options. They can simply overpay for players in UFA to fill the roster holes on short term deals. With the expansion draft, they should look for youngish players who have some type of untapped potential. I think it'd make more sense to take one of Lindbohm or Jaskin because these guys are cheap, young and there is something there. And I know everyone rips on Jaskin, but he isn't that bad, he just isn't very productive on offense, but he's still a better player than Lehtera IMO, especially when you factor in contract.

Re: your last paragraph, eh maybe, but the fact remains that Lehtera has shown much more than Jaskin ever has. You complain about Jori's slowness and then bring up Jaskin as the better alternative, give me a break. At this point, it's absolutely crazy to think that Jaskin is in any way better than Lehtera. That said, no, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaskin taken instead. Lindbohm? There are going to be a million better alternatives than him out there. It's just insanely ironic to suggest that Jaskin is the better one to take, given everything you're saying about Lehtera. Not to mention that Lehtera is a center (aren't going to be many of them left unprotected), while Jaskin is a winger. You keep neglecting that Vegas will need to hit the cap floor. If you look at the contracts that 'Zona and Toronto have carried the last few years, you can start to appreciate how difficult and/or unappetizing that could be, especially if you're trying to build a young team. Would you rather carry Datsyuk, Pronger, and/or Horton, or carry Lehtera, who will at the very least play out his contract? It's an easy, easy answer to that question, and if you aren't answering "Lehtera," you aren't thinking like a GM.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Woah. No way.

I'd much rather part with draft picks or prospects who are not close to NHL ready. Sanford is far too valuable because of the tempo of the Blues' window.

But if it comes down to the scenario you outlined, I think they'd just buy him out. Retained salary would also add value to Lehtera and be preferable from the Blues point of view.

Agreed. I'd much rather buy Lehtera out then pay a young prospect who's starting to look like he'll be an NHL asset to dump him.

 

[tfriede2]

Lehtera has some value, sure. But he's being sat for Paajarvi and Sanford. If Lehtera is worth $2-3 mil, why is he being benched for players that we believe are worth $1-2 mil (I think this is what most of us would deem is reasonable worth for Paajarvi and Sanford)? I suppose the RFA status of Paajarvi (and especially Sanford) account for some of that value decrease. But either way we slice it, it is pretty damning that Lehtera is being sat for those two players.

 

[Evocable Manager]

Re: your last paragraph, eh maybe, but the fact remains that Lehtera has shown much more than Jaskin ever has. You complain about Jori's slowness and then bring up Jaskin as the better alternative, give me a break. At this point, it's absolutely crazy to think that Jaskin is in any way better than Lehtera. That said, no, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaskin taken instead. Lindbohm? There are going to be a million better alternatives than him out there. It's just insanely ironic to suggest that Jaskin is the better one to take, given everything you're saying about Lehtera. Not to mention that Lehtera is a center (aren't going to be many of them left unprotected), while Jaskin is a winger. You keep neglecting that Vegas will need to hit the cap floor. If you look at the contracts that 'Zona and Toronto have carried the last few years, you can start to appreciate how difficult and/or unappetizing that could be, especially if you're trying to build a young team. Would you rather carry Datsyuk, Pronger, and/or Horton, or carry Lehtera, who will at the very least play out his contract? It's an easy, easy answer to that question, and if you aren't answering "Lehtera," you aren't thinking like a GM.

I never said his production is worthless. I'm just saying he is grossly overpaid for the contributions he's made/can make. But 44 and 34 point seasons are nothing incredible and certainly not worth 4.7M on the cap hit. In theory, a top 90 center is good enough for the top 9 and he hasn't been in that top 90.

You said he could 'regain' form, correct? The reason I brought up elite players is because the first 20 games are the only real point in his career where he produced at a significant rate. In that span, he has elite level production. So I'm asking if you want him to regain that form? What form are you speaking of? He's been crap from day 1, there is nothing to regain unless there is something I'm missing.

I'm not comparing him to Ovi. But you said that after his 20 games he had a book on him and therefore was shutdown. But that isn't true, he scored at an unsustainable rate. He simply didn't generate enough scoring chances/dangerous shots to maintain such production. As for the other 100's of players who have been through similar, they aren't any different. They get some lucky bounces and don't generate enough chances to maintain their scoring rates. The Ovechkin point was just to ask how one can say there's a book on Lehtera as for why he was shutdown and stopped producing but every player and fan in the NHL knows Ovechkin will be standing atop the left circle waiting for a pass but he isn't shutdown?

As for the Jaskin point, he's a very strong possession player and very good defensively by every metric. I never mentioned Lehtera's skating in either of my posts so I'm not sure where that came from. But Lehtera is not as good as Jaskin, Jaskin doesn't produce any offense but he does a very good job at keeping possession and is strong in his own end, which has value. Lehtera is better offensively but that's about where it ends and he isn't so much better, he doesn't generate much on his own.

I said "There's an off chance Vegas takes him simply to help cap." I didn't neglect the value of reaching the floor, I directly acknowledged it. But that doesn't make it a guarantee they take him, every team has players with bad contracts. But they will also have a bare minimum prospect pool and need players to fill spots throughout the entire organization. Lindbohm is still young and he comes without baggage, whereas Lehtera does.

Arizona got to move up a few spots in the draft and a few other little gifts for taking Datsyuk.
Toronto didn't have Horton to reach the floor, they got lucky Columbus is a budget team and couldn't afford to pay a player when he wasn't playing.
Bickell forced the Hawks to pawn off Teravainen to dump him (well his contract did, not him personally).
Arizona took Lawson Crouse from Florida to have Bolland dumped on them.

But Vegas will just take Lehtera for free? Maybe, but I'm not counting on it. Your point about Lehtera being able to play doesn't really make sense because he isn't close to being worth what Vegas would be paying.

I don't see why Vegas would willingly take a bad contract off our hands and help us out. They will be in a tough spot but other teams will probably be offering young pieces to them to take bad contracts, so Vegas may not need to take Lehtera for free.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I agree with Morty on this issue and on Lehtera holding more value for an expansion team than what many give credit for, even though its a bad contract. But if he ends up being a healthy scratch the rest of the playoffs, that argument gets harder to make.

Armstrong's other signings suggest to me that he has a plan for Lehtera, and that he won't be on the Blues. Whether that's a deal in place to trade him, or a gentleman's agreement with Vegas, or a green light to buy him out of necessary, some combo of the above. I don't know...but I think its already decided, and I think that it could happen as late as training camp (if its a buy-out).

 

[MissouriMook]

I agree with Morty on this issue and on Lehtera holding more value for an expansion team than what many give credit for, even though its a bad contract. But if he ends up being a healthy scratch the rest of the playoffs, that argument gets harder to make.

Armstrong's other signings suggest to me that he has a plan for Lehtera, and that he won't be on the Blues. Whether that's a deal in place to trade him, or a gentleman's agreement with Vegas, or a green light to buy him out of necessary, some combo of the above. I don't know...but I think its already decided, and I think that it could happen as late as training camp (if its a buy-out).

There is a very limited window now as to when you can buy out contracts. Per CapFriendly, the buy-out period runs from the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the end of Stanley Cup Finals, until June 30 at 5:00 PM EDT. If we don't have a deal in place for VGK to select him in the ED, I expect that he will be bought out shortly after the draft. I can't see anyone willing to trade anything of value for him, and certainly not without the maximum 50% retained.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Could we please make another Lehtera thread? I keep having a heart attack looking at the title when it pops up...

 

[Spicy Panger]

Could we please make another Lehtera thread? I keep having a heart attack looking at the title when it pops up...

You and me both.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Sure Lehtera may hold some value to Vegas, but let me ask this: Everyone knows we're going to have to dump somebody, preferably Lehtera. Why would they take him without first putting pressure on us to pony up something extra?

 

[542365]

Sure Lehtera may hold some value to Vegas, but let me ask this: Everyone knows we're going to have to dump somebody, preferably Lehtera. Why would they take him without first putting pressure on us to pony up something extra?

That's exactly my question. Every team's board I visit they have some overpriced player that they hope Vegas will take because "they need to hit the cap floor". That cap floor is not going to be an issue at all. If we want Vegas to take Lehtera, it's through a trade because they'll have plenty of cap space. They aren't taking him for free because they think he's a useful player, even if he can play center. LV scouts have eyeballs too. They can see how bad the guy is. If we're starting guys like Sanford, Barbashev, and Paajarvi over him in the playoffs(and we absolutely should because they are all better players), what does that say about him? He's terrible. It's not a secret. Everyone has discovered that he's terrible. We're going to have to pony up some assets(whether that's pick(s) or prospect(s)) to get Vegas to take him. I'd be perfectly fine with giving Vegas Lehtera and our earlier first for their second. They get to move up about 5-10 spots in the draft for taking on Lehtera's deal. That's about what it took for Arizona to take Datsyuk IIRC.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Sure Lehtera may hold some value to Vegas, but let me ask this: Everyone knows we're going to have to dump somebody, preferably Lehtera. Why would they take him without first putting pressure on us to pony up something extra?

Why are you assuming they have that kind of leverage? Besides the fact that Lehtera is probably the best option among forwards on our team (you can make the argument for Jaskin, but I think the difference between the two is negligible and Lehtera - again - has played top-line minutes), I just don't think Vegas is going to be as aggressive as some are assuming.

But nevertheless, let's take a look at what history has shown us, with the understanding that the rules have changed substantially since the last expansion draft. All via wikipedia.

2000 ED: Wild and Blue Jackets

In return for agreeing not to select certain unprotected players, the Blue Jackets and Wild were granted concessions by other franchises. The trades not involving Blue Jacket or Wild draft picks were booked as being for "future considerations":

Columbus

San Jose traded Jan Caloun, a ninth-round pick (Martin Paroulek) in the 2000 NHL Entry Draft, and a conditional pick in the 2001 NHL Entry Draft to Columbus on June 11, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Evgeni Nabokov.
Buffalo traded Jean-Luc Grand-Pierre, Matt Davidson, and two fifth-round draft picks, one each in the 2000 (Tyler Kolarik) and 2001 (Andreas Jämtin) Entry Drafts, to Columbus on June 23, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Dominik Hasek or Martin Biron.

Minnesota

San Jose traded Andy Sutton, a seventh-round pick (Peter Bartoš) in the 2000 Entry Draft and a third-round pick (later traded to Columbus - (Aaron Johnson)) in the 2001 Entry Draft to Minnesota on June 11, 2000, for an eighth-round pick in the 2000 Entry Draft after the Wild agreed not to select Evgeni Nabokov.

1999 ED: Atlanta Thrashers

In return for agreeing not to select certain unprotected players, the Thrashers were granted concessions by other franchises. The trades were officially booked as being for "future considerations":

Ottawa traded Damian Rhodes to Atlanta on June 18, 1999
Buffalo traded Dean Sylvester to Atlanta on June 25, 1999
Calgary traded Andreas Karlsson to Atlanta on June 25, 1999
Detroit traded Ulf Samuelsson to Atlanta on June 25, 1999
New Jersey traded Sergei Vyshedkevich to Atlanta on June 25, 1999
Phoenix traded Scott Langkow to Atlanta on June 25, 1999

1998 ED: Nashville Perderdatators

In return for agreeing not to select certain unprotected players, the Predators were granted concessions by other franchises. The trades not involving Nashville draft picks all officially were booked as being for "future considerations":

Calgary traded Jim Dowd to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select a goaltender from the Flames.
Chicago traded Sergei Krivokrasov to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Chris Terreri.
Los Angeles traded Kimmo Timonen and Jan Vopat to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Garry Galley.
Montreal traded Sebastien Bordeleau to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Peter Popovic.
Philadelphia traded Dominic Roussel and Jeff Staples to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Paul Coffey (Nashville also sent the Flyers a seventh-round pick (Cam Ondrik) in the 1998 NHL Entry Draft).
San Jose traded Ville Peltonen to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Tony Granato (Nashville also sent the Sharks a fifth-round pick (Josh Blackburn) in the 1998 NHL Entry Draft).
St. Louis traded Darren Turcotte to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Jamie McLennan.

So, yes, trades will happen to keep players from getting drafted. But, to me, the most remarkable trades there are made by teams trying to protect their goalie (Nabokov by both teams in 2000). "Bribing" a team to take a player that at least has the potential to be one of the better offensive players on their team doesn't seem likely to me. In general, if history is any indication, Lehtera will just get selected straight up if left available.

In general, there are just so many more possibilities than having to trade a high-value pick or prospect to get rid of Lehtera, and those possibilities deserve equal consideration imo.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Why am I assuming they have that leverage? Because they do. Particularly if we don't buy him out. We have to move him. We have no choice. And very few teams are going to have the cap space to take on a 4.7 million cap hit, ignoring the fact that he's just not any good.

That's just basic negotiation. Don't take something for free, when you have the chance to have someone pay you for it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Every team has a "Lehtera", so Vegas has the ability to pick and choose the best options for themselves. If you don't make it worth it for them, then they won't take your cap dump. Now, maybe they genuinely like some dumps for their team, but I doubt that is the case for Lehtera. Lehtera is being bench in the playoffs for Sanford, just let that sink in. We are willing to pay Lehtera all that money to sit on the bench when it matters the most.

When you look at other forwards that will be left unprotected, there will be better options.

 

[Oberyn]

Blues are in the playoffs missing their first line center and we still scratched Lehtera who also plays center. I'm sure Vegas will be taking note of that.

I'm hopeful that Vegas takes Lehtera but it's not something i'm willing to bet on.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

For example, this Barry Trotz quote from 1997 when he and Dave Poile were going after his first roster in Nashville:

"There is always the hope someone who hasn’t had the kind of success they’ve hoped for or hasn’t met expectations can find something here,†Trotz said. “We’re realistic, though, we know the skill level may not be there right away, nobody’s going to expose scorers for us to take.â€

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/a...on-predators-were-building-their-first-roster

Just wanted to re-post this from a page ago. This is a critical, critical component to this conversation, and people aren't giving it enough credit. The Knights have to know, have to recognize that they aren't going to be contenders next year. Likely not the year after that either. Or the year after that. How long did it take Lumbus, Nashville, and Atlanta to make an impact in the league? The Wild made the conference finals in their 3rd year, and that's what Vegas ought to be shooting for.

The ironic thing is that so many posters here are clamoring for the "high-risk high-reward" draft picks, but refuse to believe that the same thing might apply to vets. The Knights need to hit it big with one or two "off the board" picks.

Characterizing Lehtera as purely garbage, purely a cap-dump, as bad as the Datsyuk, Pronger, Bickell, Bolland, or Clarkson contracts, is flat out ridiculous. Lehtera can play, those other guys, for the most part, cannot. You're over-exaggerating and reaching for a false-equivalency if you think Lehtera is a dead contract. He's not. He's not great for us, but he has had a long career being productive in Europe, and a few seasons of 30+ point production in the NHL (and probably would have hit it this year too if we hadn't been horrible for a very significant chunk of the season). He can play in the NHL, you don't have to bury his contract in the AHL if he's on your team. He isn't a cap dump, that just straight up isn't the definition of a cap dump. I feel like some people are seeing that stuff happen around the league, running their finger down our roster, coming to Lehtera and saying "Oh yeah same thing," but that isn't the case. Being the odd man out on our team doesn't mean he can't be better elsewhere, especially if you're ok with paying the contract (and Vegas will be).

Again, I'm not saying Lehtera has been good for us, but some of the things being said and suggested around here are just crazy.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Lehtera is definitely the definition of a cap dump, he just isn't as big of a cap dump as the others. Lehtera just isn't the odd man out, we'd rather bench him for Sanford in the playoffs. If he was the odd man out in the expansion draft, he'd be playing right now.

 

[542365]

Yeah I think Lehtera has negative value, which to me is a cap dump. Cap space is the most valuable commodity in the league. Would you rather have that player at his current salary or not have the player at all? If you answer "not have the player at all", he's a cap dump. Ask the same question for another overpaid player on the team. Paul Stastny. Would you rather have Paul Stastny or 7M in cap space? I'd rather have Stastny. JBo. Would you rather have JBo or 5.4M in cap space? This one is closer, but I'd still rather have Bo. Lehtera and Yakupov are the only two guys on the team that I'd rather have their cap space than the actual player. To me those are cap dumps. He's not completely worthless, and I think if we retained salary he could be of interest to many teams, but I'm not sure how much interest the Blues have in retaining since we're already a bit snug on the cap as it is.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah I think Lehtera has negative value, which to me is a cap dump. Cap space is the most valuable commodity in the league. Would you rather have that player at his current salary or not have the player at all? If you answer "not have the player at all", he's a cap dump. Ask the same question for another overpaid player on the team. Paul Stastny. Would you rather have Paul Stastny or 7M in cap space? I'd rather have Stastny. JBo. Would you rather have JBo or 5.4M in cap space? This one is closer, but I'd still rather have Bo. Lehtera and Yakupov are the only two guys on the team that I'd rather have their cap space than the actual player. To me those are cap dumps. He's not completely worthless, and I think if we retained salary he could be of interest to many teams, but I'm not sure how much interest the Blues have in retaining since we're already a bit snug on the cap as it is.

Right, Stastny should be paid around 5 million, so in theory his 7 million space is very valuable, but only to the extent that you can find someone to match his production at 5 million or less, otherwise it's not worth it. Bouwmeester is closer, and Gunnarsson is even closer. Lehtera and Yakupov are already on that level.

 

[JustOneB4IDie]

Blues are in the playoffs missing their first line center and we still scratched Lehtera who also plays center. I'm sure Vegas will be taking note of that.

I'm hopeful that Vegas takes Lehtera but it's not something i'm willing to bet on.

http://memeshappen.com/meme/thatd-be-great/that-39-d-be-great-37824

 

[GoldenSeal]

Two Step Solution to the Jori Lehtera debacle:

1. Buyout Jori Lehtera
2. Celebrate said buyout