Blues Salary Cap Going Foward (2020-2022)

[67Blues]

I posted this over on the trade board in response to @Bluesnatic27 but I thought I'd copy it over here for discussion. This was talking about dumping Allen and Bozak to make room. I'm open to any corrections or comments on how the Blues go forward over the next two seasons.

It could work (dumping Allen and Bozak at $9m), but a log of things have to fall in place for the next two years to work out.

Right now, for 2020, the Blues have $51,377,499 tied up in 14 forwards with Brouwer as a UFA and DLR as an RFA. On defense, they have $18,400,000 tied up in 5 players with Petro a UFA and Dunn an RFA. Both goalies are locked in at $8,750,000. Total committed salary for 21 players is $78,527,499 or $$2,972,501 cap space.

If you can move Allen and Bozak for $9m, you drop down to roughly $11,972,501 free space. You will have to replace Allen with either Husso or an outside goalie, and I'll assume Husso at $750K hit, so you now have $11,222,501 free. Petro will eat up probably $8.5-9.0m, but I'll split the difference at $8.75m. Now you have $2,472,501 to sign Dunn and keep DLR or use an ELC to replace him. I don't think you'll get Dunn that cheap, let alone afford DLR as he will take a modest increase, from $900k to probably $1.5m. He probably becomes a casualty in all of this and isn't offered a contract, but that isn't a big loss. He can be replaced by Stevens at $700K.

Then things get really tricky because 2021-2022 looms large. For that season, they have 7 forwards under contract at $30,650,00 and (if we include Dunn and Petro at a total of $12m) 7 defensemen (assuming Mikola $787,500 is here) at a cost of $29,287,500. Husso is the only signed goalie at $750,000. So our committed cap at this point is $60,687,500 with $20,812,500 free.

Schwartz will be a UFA and will probably command salary similar to Schenn's $6,500,000. Our RFAs include Sanford (currently at $1,500,000), Barbashev (currently at $1,4750,000), Thomas (a big raise coming), and Kyrou (maybe not so big unless he breaks out this season). Also looming large is Binnington (currently at $4,400,000) as a UFA and I don't know if he has much loyalty to the organization to not dip his toe into the UFA pool and I would assume that he'll want to be paid like a top 5 goalie in the league if he continues his play level next year.

It will take some creative moves from Army to keep the team together going forward. The entire apple cart could be upset if Petro decides he's worth $9.5+m/year in free agent bidding, Dunn gets and offer sheet for $4+m/year, or we have to retain on an Allen or Bozak traded contract. Hopefully Army has a Plan C because Plan A will always fail and Plan B will have some unforeseen circumstances.

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[Davimir Tarablad]

The big lynch pin of how to navigate the cap will be who will be headed to Seattle. Assuming Petro stays, we'd pretty much need Faulk to be going to Seattle in order to have adequate breathing room.

Also, if Perunovich establishes himself, Dunn could very well be moved for a good return and likely provide a good ELC forward that can contribute.

 

[Blueston]

This is why they need to explore dealing Schwartz and Dunn. They can get by this coming year without but no way to keep everyone going forward so deal guys you can afford to and keep talent pipeline flowing.

 

[Stealth JD]

Retain $1M a year on Faulk and you could probably find a taker. Then you'd just need to move one of the other prime candidates for a trade. I'm not convinced Army won't find a way out of that mistake somehow. There are ways to get Scwartz, Dunn & Petro locked up, while still maintaining some semblance of competent NHL depth. Steen needs to be Orpik'd though, and I don't know why he'd object if he ultimately found himself back where he wanted to be albeit with a lower cap hit.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I think the Dunn offersheet is not a real threat. Other teams don’t have money to throw around like that, and he’s not arbitration eligible, so he really doesn’t have much negotiating power except threatening to hold out. More likely they’ll agree to a bridge deal at a lower number and shorter term. But if Perunovich is ready to play, the Blues May view Dunn as trade currency. His salary number isn’t creating room by itself, but he himself has value. That could help obtain assets to sweeten deals for other teams to take Bozak, Steen or Allen.

I think Allen won’t require any sweetener. There are multiple teams who would be glad to get him for next to nothing for that one-year term. Pittsburgh and Detroit are a couple.

I don’t think Steen will be able to be traded because of his NMC. I’m not sure it’s in the plans to even try, but if so it will require sweetener. Bozak’ s value is less clear to me. Maybe he will require some incentive.

I strongly suspect Armstrong already has tentative deals in place for Allen. If you assume Allen is moved with no retention or salary coming back, and Husso takes the spot (or approximate league minimum vet) you’ve made a huge dent in the shortfall to get to Pietro’s number.

 

[MissouriMook]

I feel like Allen at $3M-$3.5M has enough value that you can get something back. With Bozak, I feel like that number is in the $3.5M-$4M range where you can get something worthwhile back, let alone not have to add a sweetener. Ultimately, I trust Army to do the right thing with regards to whether or not (and how much) to retain on players when dealing for cap space to accomplish his plans within the cap space we will eventually have available.

 

[stl76]

Why does nobody ever talk about buyouts when we discuss our cap situation?

If we trade one of Allen/Bozak with no retention then buy out Steen and the remaining of Allen/Bozak, we save around ~$10 mill in cap space next season.

 

[Mike Liut]

We are going to have to move/buyout Allen, Bozak, Steen and Faulk to be able to sign Petro and eventually Schwartz and Parayko.

I think that’s do-able

 

[Blueston]

Why does nobody ever talk about buyouts when we discuss our cap situation?

If we trade one of Allen/Bozak with no retention then buy out Steen and the remaining of Allen/Bozak, we save around ~$10 mill in cap space next season.

Because trading guy clears full salary and buyout doesn’t. And since these guys are on last year and are good players they should be movable.

 

[mk80]

Remember we will be losing someone to Seattle as well, and depending on who that is could dramatically shift these predictions one way or the other.

Husso is the only signed goalie at $750,000. So our committed cap at this point is $60,687,500 with $20,812,500 free.

Joel Hofer would most likely be in the picture at this point in the AHL.

 

[Blueston]

Remember we will be losing someone to Seattle as well, and depending on who that is could dramatically shift these predictions one way or the other. Also it's not much but we still have the ELC of Erik Foley on the books at $950k that expires after this coming season.



Joel Hofer would most likely be in the picture at this point in the AHL.

Foley doesn’t really count since he is LTIR.

 

[mk80]

Foley doesn’t really count since he is LTIR.

Right. I completely forgot about that. That's what 4+ months off does to my thoughts on the cap I guess.

 

[67Blues]

Remember we will be losing someone to Seattle as well, and depending on who that is could dramatically shift these predictions one way or the other.



Joel Hofer would most likely be in the picture at this point in the AHL.

While I like the trajectory that Hofer could offer, I don't believe he will be ready by next year.

 

[mk80]

While I like the trajectory that Hofer could offer, I don't believe he will be ready by next year.

I guess so, he'd only be in year 2 of being a pro at that point, and I assume if he's in the AHL this coming season he's likely backing up Husso.

 

[stl76]

Because trading guy clears full salary and buyout doesn’t. And since these guys are on last year and are good players they should be movable.

Allen and Bozak, we might be able to move without retaining. Steen has that pesky full NTC tho. Not impossible to trade, but at this point I think it's much more likely that Steen ends up getting bought out than traded.

I'm just saying, buyout(s) should be part of the conversation given the flat cap. Ideally, we move Allen and Bozak at full salary and find a way to keep Steen + Pietrangelo + Dunn + ect. But if worst comes to worst, we only have to find a taker for 1 of Bozak/Allen at full salary and we can still clear nearly $10 mill in cap.

 

[Blueston]

Allen and Bozak, we might be able to move without retaining. Steen has that pesky full NTC tho. Not impossible to trade, but at this point I think it's much more likely that Steen ends up getting bought out than traded.

I'm just saying, buyout(s) should be part of the conversation given the flat cap. Ideally, we move Allen and Bozak at full salary and find a way to keep Steen + Pietrangelo + Dunn + ect. But if worst comes to worst, we only have to find a taker for 1 of Bozak/Allen at full salary and we can still clear nearly $10 mill in cap.

You only save $2.33M next year buying out Steen. But you need to replace him so savings aren’t only about $1.5M next year. And you take $1.17M the following year. If that is difference between keeping Petro, fine, but seems like other options to save more $.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Why does nobody ever talk about buyouts when we discuss our cap situation?

If we trade one of Allen/Bozak with no retention then buy out Steen and the remaining of Allen/Bozak, we save around ~$10 mill in cap space next season.

Cause Armstrong has never bought out a player?

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Cause Armstrong has never bought out a player?

Exactly. The Blues might have more money in the coffers than they ever have, but then again they are now dealing with the pandemic. This franchise does not throw money around like that.

 

[Alklha]

Exactly. The Blues might have more money in the coffers than they ever have, but then again they are now dealing with the pandemic. This franchise does not throw money around like that.

There aren't really any financial arguments against buying out players.

If we buy out a player, we're still going to have a chunk of cap space taken up by that player... so we can't just go out and bring in another player at a similar salary. Operating costs don't really change for ownership with a buy out, we're just reducing the amount of dollars/cap we can spend on our 23 man roster.

If we're a cap team, it should be up to Armstrong to how best spend the cap.

With the current cap situation, I don't think that it makes sense to be talking about buy outs. If we make a couple of trades? That could change.

 

[stl76]

You only save $2.33M next year buying out Steen. But you need to replace him so savings aren’t only about $1.5M next year. And you take $1.17M the following year. If that is difference between keeping Petro, fine, but seems like other options to save more $.

Most other options are going to cost assets.

If we buy out Steen and Bozak, we save $5.16M. Even factoring in replacements, that could save us well over $3M in cap space...$3M could realistically be the difference between keeping or losing Dunn or having to attach a valuable 1st or 2nd round pick to dump salary.

I'm not saying buyouts should be plan A or that we shouldn't try to trade Allen/Bozak without retention. But we have been discussing our cap situation and re-signing Pietro a lot lately, and it just seems really strange to me that buyouts have largely not even been part of the conversation.

Cause Armstrong has never bought out a player?

Armstrong has also never GM'd through a global epidemic and such an unforeseen change in cap expectation (steadily rising year after year and predictions for next season going from rising another 3+ mill to suddenly staying suddenly flat the next 3 seasons).

 

[Blueston]

Most other options are going to cost assets.

If we buy out Steen and Bozak, we save $5.16M. Even factoring in replacements, that could save us well over $3M in cap space...$3M could realistically be the difference between keeping or losing Dunn or having to attach a valuable 1st or 2nd round pick to dump salary.

I'm not saying buyouts should be plan A or that we shouldn't try to trade Allen/Bozak without retention. But we have been discussing our cap situation and re-signing Pietro a lot lately, and it just seems really strange to me that buyouts have largely not even been part of the conversation.


Armstrong has also never GM'd through a global epidemic and such an unforeseen change in cap expectation (steadily rising year after year and predictions for next season going from rising another 3+ mill to suddenly staying suddenly flat the next 3 seasons).

Hasn’t been much talk about buyouts bc there are better options. That won’t require us to deal high pick.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Hasn’t been much talk about buyouts bc there are better options. That won’t require us to deal high pick.

I think as a general approach, owners aren’t going to be enthused about buyouts as a way to deal with a flat cap and lower than anticipated revenue. There was an early suggestion of adding compliance buyouts, but that was shut down pretty quickly for the same reasons.

 

[Spektre]

None of us know how this will all shake out but I'm not going to be shocked by anything. If they wind up signing Pietrangelo, and keep the D in tact, it will make the Faulk acquisition a giant blunder. Faulk isn't good nor does he belong on the left side and paying a 3rd pairing D 6.5 million per year is atrocious cap and roster management.

 

[67Blues]

None of us know how this will all shake out but I'm not going to be shocked by anything. If they wind up signing Pietrangelo, and keep the D in tact, it will make the Faulk acquisition a giant blunder. Faulk isn't good nor does he belong on the left side and paying a 3rd pairing D 6.5 million per year is atrocious cap and roster management.

I wonder if it would just be prudent to retain $2m and trade him at this point? $2m could be a small price to pay against an ELC contract and put the $4.5m towards the roster. I believe you could find a taker for him at $4.5m

 

[Brockon]

I wonder if it would just be prudent to retain $2m and trade him at this point? $2m could be a small price to pay against an ELC contract and put the $4.5m towards the roster. I believe you could find a taker for him at $4.5m

Retaining 2m for 7 years? I don't expect management to pull the trigger on that...

I think we're going to lose someone we'd rather not as a sweetener to move Allen & Bozak (or a high pick) and see Petro re-sign, then pay ANOTHER sweetner to ship Faulk off to Seattle if Pietrangelo stays with us for a new deal.