Seravalli: Blues pursuing Timo Meier

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think we need to draft carlson 2nd or 3rd over all.

If you are talking the big Swede winger, then aren’t you concerned about his skating? He seems like a really “elite” player otherwise. However being a below average skater is kind of scary. How will that play with the big boys when they can all skate and defend his skills otherwise? That’s the million dollar question. if he becomes a blue, then I hope he overcomes them.

 

[BlueTacos]

If you are talking the big Swede winger, then aren’t you concerned about his skating? He seems like a really “elite” player otherwise. However being a below average skater is kind of scary. How will that play with the big boys when they can all skate and defend his skills otherwise? That’s the million dollar question. if he becomes a blue, then I hope he overcomes them.

At 18 he is playing in the sweedish elite league. Skating can be worked on. He has all the other tools. We need a power forward center type. Thomas skates for days but doesn't shoot. I think having big carlson slot in on second line in a year or so would be amazing. Also he looks to be more nhl ready than fantilli. Also we have big swede leo loof coming to blues soon so that may make the kids transition quicker

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

At 18 he is playing in the sweedish elite league. Skating can be worked on. He has all the other tools. We need a power forward center type. Thomas skates for days but doesn't shoot. I think having big carlson slot in on second line in a year or so would be amazing. Also he looks to be more nhl ready than fantilli. Also we have big swede leo loof coming to blues soon so that may make the kids transition quicker

Hopefully we can move that far up in the draft. We shall see….

 

[SJinNewJersey]

As if it matters

 

[BrokenFace]

Because it's irrelevant if fans want it. If it's reported that the actual team has interest then it's worth discussing. The Blues' fans in this thread that have a God awful take on Meier don't get to make the call on whether the team has interest or not.

It's an HF trade thread. There's been terrible takes on both sides. Including the draft picks the Blues would trade for Meier being called magic beans, even though picks are exactly what SJ is looking to get in return for Meier. Not sure how picks are overrated for one franchise but fair value for someone as good as Meier to the other franchise.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

It's an HF trade thread. There's been terrible takes on both sides. Including the draft picks the Blues would trade for Meier being called magic beans, even though picks are exactly what SJ is looking to get in return for Meier. Not sure how picks are overrated for one franchise but fair value for someone as good as Meier to the other franchise.

Because draft picks, especially 1st rounders, are one of the most overrated assets in the sport. Teams always demand 1st rounders for players, and others argue they aren't worth it. Happens every year, with almost every coveted player. In reality, the first 15 1st rounders have decent shots at becoming anything significant in the league, and it's a crap shoot after that. I'm not saying either side in this thread is right or wrong, because I simply don't know what Grier wants/St Louis would offer, but that is why there are takes on both sides.

 

[BrokenFace]

Because draft picks, especially 1st rounders, are one of the most overrated assets in the sport. Teams always demand 1st rounders for players, and others argue they aren't worth it. Happens every year, with almost every coveted player. In reality, the first 15 1st rounders have decent shots at becoming anything significant in the league, and it's a crap shoot after that. I'm not saying either side in this thread is right or wrong, because I simply don't know what Grier wants/St Louis would offer, but that is why there are takes on both sides.

It wasn't a shot at you by any means, and I agree 1sts don't have the value people think, but they can't be called worthless compared to a known asset like Meier when we all know 1sts are what teams trading a player like Meier are looking for. They do have value. The two most valuable players in the Blues organization were drafted in the late first and early second rounds. The Blues also aren't a Timo Meier away from contending. The magic beans are just as valuable to us as they are to another rebuilding/retooling team in the Sharks. I don't see any Shark fans saying they should just resign Meier to accelerate their own rebuild, which is what the sales pitch is for the Blues to acquire him.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

It wasn't a shot at you by any means, and I agree 1sts don't have the value people think, but they can't be called worthless compared to a known asset like Meier when we all know 1sts are what teams trading a player like Meier are looking for. They do have value. The two most valuable players in the Blues organization were drafted in the late first and early second rounds. The Blues also aren't a Timo Meier away from contending. The magic beans are just as valuable to us as they are to another rebuilding/retooling team in the Sharks. I don't see any Shark fans saying they should just resign Meier to accelerate their own rebuild, which is what the sales pitch is for the Blues to acquire him.

I agree St Louis should have no business trading for Meier, but the fact discussions were apparently had, and your team has 3 first round picks ,which apparently our team wants a lot of, is why we are here on page 17.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'd push back on people calling draft pick magic beans or crapshoots. If you are an organization that is good at scouting and development, and it's also going to depend on the draft year. Teams know when there is a deep draft and when there isn't. It's one of the reasons a lot of Blues fans here would prefer to keep the picks because we draft so well in those areas.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'd push back on people calling draft pick magic beans or crapshoots. If you are an organization that is good at scouting and development, and it's also going to depend on the draft year. Teams know when there is a deep draft and when there isn't

San Jose was considered to be pretty good with the draft going into 2003. The Sharks had 2 1st-round picks in the 2003 draft, one of the deeper drafts in recent history. They took Milan Michalek at 6, then traded up from 21 to 16 and took Steve Bernier.

Michalek had a decent but not spectacular career. Was OK in San Jose - a 60-point season, couple of 50-point seasons, 3 20-goal seasons - but nothing spectacular. The only saving grace with him is that he was dealt to Ottawa for Dany Heatley, who put up 2 solid years with the Sharks before being dealt for the aging corpse of Martin Havlat. The Sharks passed up on Ryan Suter, Dion Phaneuf, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Brent Seabrook, all of whom had clearly better careers.

Bernier was even less spectacular. He ended up traded in 2008 to Buffalo for Brian Campbell, who left that offseason for Chicago. Bernier's bigger claim to fame is being given an offer sheet by the Blues in retaliation for the Canucks giving an offer sheet to David Backes. The Sharks passed up on Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry - and if you want to look down into the 2nd round, Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber, who even their drafting teams passed on at least once.

The point here: even organizations good at scouting and development screw up high picks, even in deep drafts. So yes, even in a deep draft 1st-round picks can still be crapshoots.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's an HF trade thread. There's been terrible takes on both sides. Including the draft picks the Blues would trade for Meier being called magic beans, even though picks are exactly what SJ is looking to get in return for Meier. Not sure how picks are overrated for one franchise but fair value for someone as good as Meier to the other franchise.

There's no sense in both-sidesing this. The awful Meier takes of some Blues fans in this thread takes the cake among the terrible takes in this thread. If you're talking about two late 1st round picks, it's not at all a terrible take to call that magic beans. Even if the Sharks are looking for picks and the Blues maybe aren't doing so for their own reasons doesn't mean that late first rounders aren't magic beans. They kind of are based on the odds. Now if it's the early pick then you have a different conversation but I don't think that's what is being discussed when that term gets thrown into the mix.

Late 1st round picks are overrated because a lot of people on HF don't put any context into what that is. They can still be quite useful of course. They're not worthless but for a player like Meier, those picks aren't at all likely to produce a player on Meier's level if it even produces an NHL player.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'd push back on people calling draft pick magic beans or crapshoots. If you are an organization that is good at scouting and development, and it's also going to depend on the draft year. Teams know when there is a deep draft and when there isn't. It's one of the reasons a lot of Blues fans here would prefer to keep the picks because we draft so well in those areas.

No matter how good you are at drafting and scouting, even the better guys miss on their projections. Calling them magic beans or crapshoots is not an accurate way to describe it though.

This is a deep draft but that's more like the top 10 or top 15. May extend to top 20. It's not the entire 1st round and there will be busts/disappointments. Even in the top 10.

 

[bleedblue1223]

San Jose was considered to be pretty good with the draft going into 2003. The Sharks had 2 1st-round picks in the 2003 draft, one of the deeper drafts in recent history. They took Milan Michalek at 6, then traded up from 21 to 16 and took Steve Bernier.

Michalek had a decent but not spectacular career. Was OK in San Jose - a 60-point season, couple of 50-point seasons, 3 20-goal seasons - but nothing spectacular. The only saving grace with him is that he was dealt to Ottawa for Dany Heatley, who put up 2 solid years with the Sharks before being dealt for the aging corpse of Martin Havlat. The Sharks passed up on Ryan Suter, Dion Phaneuf, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Brent Seabrook, all of whom had clearly better careers.

Bernier was even less spectacular. He ended up traded in 2008 to Buffalo for Brian Campbell, who left that offseason for Chicago. Bernier's bigger claim to fame is being given an offer sheet by the Blues in retaliation for the Canucks giving an offer sheet to David Backes. The Sharks passed up on Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry - and if you want to look down into the 2nd round, Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber, who even their drafting teams passed on at least once.

The point here: even organizations good at scouting and development screw up high picks, even in deep drafts. So yes, even in a deep draft 1st-round picks can still be crapshoots.

Look at San Jose's 1st round picks before an after 2003. Goc was probably a successful pick at 20 in 2001, Sturm at 21 in 96 was a good pick. Stuart and Marleau were top 3 picks. Then, it was a bunch of crap in the 1st until Couture. They have some good mid/late picks over the years with guys like Vlasic, Labanc, Braun, Bonino, etc., but I wouldn't call them a team that generally drafts well in the 1st.

Compare that to the Blues going back to 2005, have gotten a lot of game and players out of the mid/late 1st. Guys like Oshie, Cole, Perron, Berglund, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Fabbri (injuries), Thompson, Thomas, and then we'll see how guys like Snuggerud, Bolduc, and Neighbours develop.

I agree generally that we can apply percentages for draft positions for the liklihood of a pick becoming a NHL player or impact player, but I also agree you can adjust those percentages based on the teams/scouts making those decisions. Some teams, I wouldn't bother touching their prospects in trades.

 

[BrokenFace]

There's no sense in both-sidesing this. The awful Meier takes of some Blues fans in this thread takes the cake among the terrible takes in this thread. If you're talking about two late 1st round picks, it's not at all a terrible take to call that magic beans. Even if the Sharks are looking for picks and the Blues maybe aren't doing so for their own reasons doesn't mean that late first rounders aren't magic beans. They kind of are based on the odds. Now if it's the early pick then you have a different conversation but I don't think that's what is being discussed when that term gets thrown into the mix.

Late 1st round picks are overrated because a lot of people on HF don't put any context into what that is. They can still be quite useful of course. They're not worthless but for a player like Meier, those picks aren't at all likely to produce a player on Meier's level if it even produces an NHL player.

I'm not gonna defend the dumb Meier takes. I read them too and had the same reaction you did and I'm not even a Sharks fan. I usually avoid posting in trade threads because posts like that are common but, with the Blues actually making big retooling decisions this year, I couldn't hold back. I also strongly believe the Blues shouldn't trade for Meier because he doesn't get them even close to contending for the next few years.

My only point is, if late first rounders are overrated lotto tickets that won't return a Meier quality player, then what do Shark fans want for Meier? It seems like late 1sts, the type of picks a team trading for Meier would offer, would be the expected main asset going back to SJ. If Meier is so much better than late 1sts, then would Shark fans be in favor extending Meier themselves rather than trading him?

My opinion: 1st rounders hold different value to different teams. So do good players like Meier. Because STL and SJ are both in down years, late first round picks would be more valuable to either team than an extended Meier. A team that expects to contend the next few years, however, would/should value an extended Meier more than a couple late 1sts.

 

[bleedblue1223]

No matter how good you are at drafting and scouting, even the better guys miss on their projections. Calling them magic beans or crapshoots is not an accurate way to describe it though.

This is a deep draft but that's more like the top 10 or top 15. May extend to top 20. It's not the entire 1st round and there will be busts/disappointments. Even in the top 10.

I'm not saying teams that are good at drafting and scouting make it a guarantee that they are always going to draft a NHL player in the late 1st, they will just do it at a higher rate than other teams around the league, and that's why 1sts for those teams will be more valuable to them.

We also had some takes of Sharks fans saying Meier would be BY FAR our best player. He'd be right in the tier of Thomas/Buchnevich/Kyrou. There are always silly takes in HF trade threads, no point in making a big deal about it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm not gonna defend the dumb Meier takes. I read them too and had the same reaction you did and I'm not even a Sharks fan. I usually avoid posting in trade threads because posts like that are common but, with the Blues actually making big retooling decisions this year, I couldn't hold back. I also strongly believe the Blues shouldn't trade for Meier because he doesn't get them even close to contending for the next few years.

My only point is, if late first rounders are overrated lotto tickets that won't return a Meier quality player, then what do Shark fans want for Meier? It seems like late 1sts, the type of picks a team trading for Meier would offer, would be the expected main asset going back to SJ. If Meier is so much better than late 1sts, then would Shark fans be in favor extending Meier themselves rather than trading him?

My opinion: 1st rounders hold different value to different teams. So do good players like Meier. Because STL and SJ are both in down years, late first round picks would be more valuable to either team than an extended Meier. A team that expects to contend the next few years, however, would/should value an extended Meier more than a couple late 1sts.

I think it's completely fair for Blues fans to not be interested in acquiring Timo Meier if they don't think he's enough to get them back to contending. I don't have a problem with that take. Personally, I'd be more interested in making a deal happen around the early 1st or Snuggerud. Failing that for potentially understandable reasons, the two late 1sts just don't have that sort of pull for me. I'd rather do Holtz and a 1st than that. The reason why they may want those picks is because they may not have much of a choice in the matter. If the team is talking about trading Meier, it doesn't bode well that they'd be about re-signing him. That could be for many reasons that have nothing to do with fan preference. Some fans would prefer to extend Timo. But even a lot of those fans know when there's smoke around a player as it relates to getting traded, it tends to end with the player being traded.

1st rounders do hold different value to different teams but not all 1st rounders are valued the same either clearly otherwise people would be making that early pick available too.

 

[BrokenFace]

I think it's completely fair for Blues fans to not be interested in acquiring Timo Meier if they don't think he's enough to get them back to contending. I don't have a problem with that take. Personally, I'd be more interested in making a deal happen around the early 1st or Snuggerud. Failing that for potentially understandable reasons, the two late 1sts just don't have that sort of pull for me. I'd rather do Holtz and a 1st than that. The reason why they may want those picks is because they may not have much of a choice in the matter. If the team is talking about trading Meier, it doesn't bode well that they'd be about re-signing him. That could be for many reasons that have nothing to do with fan preference. Some fans would prefer to extend Timo. But even a lot of those fans know when there's smoke around a player as it relates to getting traded, it tends to end with the player being traded.

1st rounders do hold different value to different teams but not all 1st rounders are valued the same either clearly otherwise people would be making that early pick available too.

Agreed on all points. Like I said, I don't want the Blues giving up any futures for Meier because I don't think he gets us beyond, at best, mediocrity over the next few years. Our defense is a mess looking forward. If I'm NJ, I'd give up a 1st + Holtz easily even if Meier isn't extended. They could still qualify him next year and get 2 playoff runs out of him.

Of course, our GM may feel differently and try to make this a quicker retool than I think it should be. If that happens, I'll definitely be posting in that thread about not liking the trade unless Meier is somehow extended at a stupid low cap hit.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not saying teams that are good at drafting and scouting make it a guarantee that they are always going to draft a NHL player in the late 1st, they will just do it at a higher rate than other teams around the league, and that's why 1sts for those teams will be more valuable to them.

We also had some takes of Sharks fans saying Meier would be BY FAR our best player. He'd be right in the tier of Thomas/Buchnevich/Kyrou. There are always silly takes in HF trade threads, no point in making a big deal about it.

Blues are close to mid pack range at drafting talent from my assessment. One year you draft Thomas and the next you take Bokk. The 1st rounders are valued by all teams bud and all teams are open to busts/disappointments. I think you are pumping up your drafting ability a bit too much. Blues are not horrible at it and I agree on that part but they are not a top 5 or top 10 drafting team undisputedly.

If you had Meier and were trying to trade him, you would pump him up too. The guy has size and can score goals. Certainly not a soft winger. He would be your best player if you trade for him but by far? NO. Slightly better than Thomas, Buch, Kyrou.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Agreed on all points. Like I said, I don't want the Blues giving up any futures for Meier because I don't think he gets us beyond, at best, mediocrity over the next few years. Our defense is a mess looking forward. If I'm NJ, I'd give up a 1st + Holtz easily even if Meier isn't extended. They could still qualify him next year and get 2 playoff runs out of him.

Of course, our GM may feel differently and try to make this a quicker retool than I think it should be. If that happens, I'll definitely be posting in that thread about not liking the trade unless Meier is somehow extended at a stupid low cap hit.

What do you think your owner decides? GM's don't decide to rebuild on their own. They need approval from the owners.

If I was a Blues fan, I would reflect what you think as well. Go with the futures and see where it takes you.

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Why ? They are in the same position if not worse than SJ. I just don’t see it nor buy this rumor.

 

[BrokenFace]

What do you think your owner decides? GM's don't decide to rebuild on their own. They need approval from the owners.

If I was a Blues fan, I would reflect what you think as well. Go with the futures and see where it takes you.

Owners shouldn't pretend rebuilds are never the right option. They'll just end up in a worse position for longer. I think tear it down rebuilds are actually rarely the answer, but 2-3 year retools often are.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Blues are close to mid pack range at drafting talent from my assessment. One year you draft Thomas and the next you take Bokk. The 1st rounders are valued by all teams bud and all teams are open to busts/disappointments. I think you are pumping up your drafting ability a bit too much. Blues are not horrible at it and I agree on that part but they are not a top 5 or top 10 drafting team undisputedly.

If you had Meier and were trying to trade him, you would pump him up too. The guy has size and can score goals. Certainly not a soft winger.

Not sure if you have a subscription, but Blues are one of the best drafting teams in the league. And again, I'm not saying good drafting teams always hit, they just hit more often than other teams. This is from 2005-2016. Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

Ok, I never said Meier wasn't good, he's very good and would be right with Thomas/Buchnevich/Kyrou. I never said he was soft. All I said was it's silly to say he'd be by far our best player, that's a silly take.

I don't know why you are inserting so many words that I never said, kind of annoying.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

The more I think about it the more it doesn't make sense. I'm all for a retool. But unless Army has some grand 7 step way to fix the bottom 6 and defense, sending two 1sts for a player (a very good player, don't get me wrong) doesn't turn us from a bottom 12 team into a contender.

 

[PocketNines]

Blues are close to mid pack range at drafting talent from my assessment. One year you draft Thomas and the next you take Bokk. The 1st rounders are valued by all teams bud and all teams are open to busts/disappointments. I think you are pumping up your drafting ability a bit too much. Blues are not horrible at it and I agree on that part but they are not a top 5 or top 10 drafting team undisputedly.

This is staggeringly wrong.

Blues have been INCREDIBLE from a range that's supposed to be magic beans. That's why the last two head scouts are now GMs for other franchises.

Here are ALL our beans in the cap era:

2022 – (23) Snuggerud ... huge home run
2020 – (26) Neighbours is 20 and in the NHL looks like a third liner who will have a real career
2018 – (25) Bokk 0 games – packaged with Edmundson for Faulk one year after draft
2017 – (20) Thomas 295 games and counting
2017 – (31) Kostin 84 games and counting
2016 – (26) Thompson 278 games and counting
2016 – (35) Kyrou 227 games and counting
2014 – (21) Fabbri 322 games and counting
2014 – (33) Barbashev 408 games and counting
2012 – (25) Schmaltz 42 games ... but thankfully Parayko in round 3
2011 – (32) Rattie 99 games
2008 – (33) McRae 15 games
2008 – (34) Allen 385 games and counting (goalie)
2007 – (26) Perron 1029 games and counting
2006 – (25) Berglund 717 games
2006 – (31) Kana 6 games
2005 – (24) Oshie 941 games and counting

Last decade:
Snuggerud, Neighbors, Thomas, Thompson, Kyrou, Fabbri, Barbashev
vs
Bokk and Kostin (who's gonna get 100 games btw)

... and you cherry picked Bokk of course ... whose value we recognized after one development year needed to be salvaged and that happened ...

Show me any other team with that track record from that range please ...

The Blues higher magic beans have been:

2006 – (1) Erik Johnson, Cup champion and still playing, 908 games
2007 – (13) Lars Eller, Cup champion and still playing, 927 games
2007 – (18) Ian Cole, Cup champion and still playing, 723 games
2008 – (4) Alex Pietrangelo, Cup champion and still playing, 927 games
2009 – (17) David Rundblad (traded for the Tarasenko pick and played 113 games)
2010 – (14) Jaden Schwartz, Cup champion and still playing, 645 games
2010 – (16) Vladimir Tarasenko, Cup champion and still playing, 650 games
2021 – (17) Zach Bolduc (one of Wheeler's current top 50)

This is not a close argument, it doesn't matter whether you're impressed or not, the Blues' complete excellence with their magic beans proceeds with or without your hot take.

Now if San Jose wants to call these "magic beans" then they're either terrible at drafting themselves or they are not living in the real world but in the real world every pick in the 2023 1st round has significant value in the hands of legitimate scouting departments.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is staggeringly wrong.

Blues have been INCREDIBLE from a range that's supposed to be magic beans. That's why the last two head scouts are now GMs for other franchises.

Here are ALL our beans in the cap era:

2022 – (23) Snuggerud ... huge home run
2020 – (26) Neighbours is 20 and in the NHL looks like a third liner who will have a real career
2018 – (25) Bokk 0 games – packaged with Edmundson for Faulk one year after draft
2017 – (20) Thomas 295 games and counting
2017 – (31) Kostin 84 games and counting
2016 – (26) Thompson 278 games and counting
2016 – (35) Kyrou 227 games and counting
2014 – (21) Fabbri 322 games and counting
2014 – (33) Barbashev 408 games and counting
2012 – (25) Schmaltz 42 games ... but thankfully Parayko in round 3
2011 – (32) Rattie 99 games
2008 – (33) McRae 15 games
2008 – (34) Allen 385 games and counting (goalie)
2007 – (26) Perron 1029 games and counting
2006 – (25) Berglund 717 games
2006 – (31) Kana 6 games
2005 – (24) Oshie 941 games and counting

Last decade:
Snuggerud, Neighbors, Thomas, Thompson, Kyrou, Fabbri, Barbashev
vs
Bokk and Kostin (who's gonna get 100 games btw)

... and you cherry picked Bokk of course ... whose value we recognized after one development year needed to be salvaged and that happened ...

Show me any other team with that track record from that range please ...

The Blues higher magic beans have been:

2006 – (1) Erik Johnson, Cup champion and still playing, 908 games
2007 – (13) Lars Eller, Cup champion and still playing, 927 games
2007 – (18) Ian Cole, Cup champion and still playing, 723 games
2008 – (4) Alex Pietrangelo, Cup champion and still playing, 927 games
2009 – (17) David Rundblad (traded for the Tarasenko pick and played 113 games)
2010 – (14) Jaden Schwartz, Cup champion and still playing, 645 games
2010 – (16) Vladimir Tarasenko, Cup champion and still playing, 650 games
2021 – (17) Zach Bolduc (one of Wheeler's current top 50)

This is not a close argument, it doesn't matter whether you're impressed or not, the Blues' complete excellence with their magic beans proceeds with or without your hot take.

Now if San Jose wants to call these "magic beans" then they're either terrible at drafting themselves or they are not living in the real world but in the real world every pick in the 2023 1st round has significant value in the hands of legitimate scouting departments.

Don't hold much value unless you do this with each and every team under the same timeframe and without bias. Blues are good at drafting but your trying to present this into something it's not. Incredible in all caps eh? Sounds like exaggeration to me.

If your last two scouts were that good and are GM's for other teams now, do you have a good scouting team to find top scouts too?