Seravalli: Blues pursuing Timo Meier

[Dickie Dunn]

Then why wouldn't the Sharks simply extend him? They're fishing for magic beans too. Would you rather have your team trade Meier for some magic beans or extend him for 6+ years at 9 million/season?

By the way, Meier himself was a 9th overall pick. Magic beans is how you get cost controlled players.

Below pick 3, your odds of landing an impact player are about 20% and drop off again after pick 10. So yes, the odds are heavily in favor of Meier being better than the magic beans. Especially with tread left on the tire.

 

[Grinner]

If the coaches and players don't want a rebuild, they're free to win more. We're in this situation because of on-ice results.

Owners can be naive if they want, but rebuilds are necessary at times. The reality of owning a team is that there will be good years and bad over time. Good teams keep the bad years short and use them to fuel the contending years as much as possible. Adding Meier doesn't make this team a contender within the next few years and, if we don't retool/rebuild, our defense will be well past their prime after that. Every team who won a cup since Boston went through an ugly rebuild to get there. An owner can buy a team and say we're NEVER going to rebuild, but ask Philly fans how that works.

This is all stuff everyone on HF knows. We are just debating the details of how far the Blues should retool or should they add a very good player like Meier now. My opinion, and the opinion of many Blues fans, is that Meier doesn't make this team good enough to contend for the foreseeable future. So why give up valuable futures for him?

Ask them. It seems they're the one's pursuing Meier

Nobody on this board also has any real skin in the game.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

People seem to be confusing cost controlled with bargain. Meier on a reasonable extension accelerates the Blues ability to get better faster as he will still be plenty young enough and good enough to help them compete when they are ready. It's not like the Blues are starting from scratch.

So again, I agree that Meier on a reasonable extension would be great for the Blues. But there's no cost control here, this situation is the polar opposite of control.

He's not under contract next year - no control
He has the unilateral right to not play for less than a 1 year 10M QO - no control

Sure, perhaps a team could work things out with Meier, but that's a very different thing.

 

[BleedBlue14]

So again, I agree that Meier on a reasonable extension would be great for the Blues. But there's no cost control here, this situation is the polar opposite of control.

He's not under contract next year - no control
He has the unilateral right to not play for less than a 1 year 10M QO - no control

Sure, perhaps a team could work things out with Meier, but that's a very different thing.

Agreed, I think there’s an odd dynamic to Meier here because realistically he’s a rental, that’s on a good deal for this season. He’s a bit more than a rental though given that you can guarantee one more season at a pretty high cap hit. This is pretty much why I don’t think there’s much of a chance the Blues conceivably outbid someone like Carolina or New Jersey. I still find it hard to believe someone offers a truly top end piece here (Hughes, Nemec, Holtz, Snuggerud, Blues 1st this season non top 12 protected) but I could certainly see a B+ prospect and a late first and potentially an add on top of that for a contending team, something more in line with Horvat but slightly more at this trade deadline to go on a run and have that assurance that assuming cap can work out you have two playoff runs with him if not more. That’s certainly not cost control, and it’s probably unfair to qualify him as a rental.

 

[BrokenFace]

Below pick 3, your odds of landing an impact player are about 20% and drop off again after pick 10. So yes, the odds are heavily in favor of Meier being better than the magic beans. Especially with tread left on the tires

But what good does having Meier and a few other good players on an otherwise crappy team do for the Blues over the next 5+ years? Why are the Sharks trying to trade Meier if draft picks are so crappy?

Kyrou and Thomas, the two players some posters in this thread suggest justify a Meier trade due to their age, were not drafted in the top 20. Draft picks are, unsurprisingly, valuable to a rebuilding or retooling team. That's why teams trade effective players for picks, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to do with Meier.

 

[EastVillageBlues]

Below pick 3, your odds of landing an impact player are about 20% and drop off again after pick 10. So yes, the odds are heavily in favor of Meier being better than the magic beans. Especially with tread left on the tire.

Meier is a second line player at best, is having a career year because of contract status. Not much else is there. He basically has a great shot, but nothing else to his game to write home about.

I don't think we would offer anything more than the lowest 1st rounder + B prospect for him.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Meier is a second line player at best, is having a career year because of contract status. Not much else is there. He basically has a great shot, but nothing else to his game to write home about.

I don't think we would offer anything more than the lowest 1st rounder + B prospect for him.

That’s pretty disingenuous. Would you have called Tarasenko a 2nd line player at the age range? Meier is essentially a more physical version.

With that being said, depending on your assessment of a B prospect I don’t think we’re serious contenders for this one either.

 

[Eggtimer]

I get that the Blues have the pieces to get Meier. What I dont get is that the Blues are out of the playoffs this year so why would they spend the assets to get what could very well be a rental? So the Blues would 100% have to get him extended. So… if Meier doesn’t want to extend , are the Blues going to keep him at 10 mil and hope he signs with them before he is a UFA the next year ?
Seems like a lot to figure out before you pony up 2x 1sts plus a prospect.
Id say Chychrun is the better option. At least he has term . His age fits with their core , addresses a,bigger need.

 

[Meatwagon]

That’s pretty disingenuous. Would you have called Tarasenko a 2nd line player at the age range? Meier is essentially a more physical version.

With that being said, depending on your assessment of a B prospect I don’t think we’re serious contenders for this one either.

Timo is a really good player, but I don’t want the Blues to spend the capital it would take to land him, unless they are taking Krug/Parayko back to even out some of the salary he will command.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I don't see why the QO is such a big deal when it's basically agreed that an extension would be $9M. Any team acquiring him would be fine with the QO at a minimum, and if he doesn't extend, you can flip him at the next deadline. If he was due for more of a $7M extension, then the QO would be more of an issue, but it's just about a $1M premium, that's not that big of a deal.

 

[Satan]

Meier is a second line player at best, is having a career year because of contract status. Not much else is there. He basically has a great shot, but nothing else to his game to write home about.

I don't think we would offer anything more than the lowest 1st rounder + B prospect for him.

A lot of Sharks fans aren't going to be happy with your post - but it's bang on. As someone who has travelled to the Bay Area often for work, staying at the AC Hotel and walking across the Gaudalupe River to see the Sharks at the SAP Center, I've seen Meier with my own eyes from section 128 behind the home bench- he's a great secondary player in the regular season but doesn't bring enough to the table to be successful in playoff hockey. There's a reason why many more teams were courting Tomas Hertl last year before he signed a contract extension.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I get that the Blues have the pieces to get Meier. What I dont get is that the Blues are out of the playoffs this year so why would they spend the assets to get what could very well be a rental? So the Blues would 100% have to get him extended. So… if Meier doesn’t want to extend , are the Blues going to keep him at 10 mil and hope he signs with them before he is a UFA the next year ?
Seems like a lot to figure out before you pony up 2x 1sts plus a prospect.
Id say Chychrun is the better option. At least he has term . His age fits with their core , addresses a,bigger need.

Why spend the assets? Because Armstrong is apparently hell-bent on trying to pry the Cup window back open ASAP.

The Blues trading for him now is a huge risk at this point, with all kinds of potential to backfire and IMO limited upside. Meier could play '23-24 with the Blues with the intention to walk no matter what. If the Blues aren't headed for a playoff spot next year, can they really flip him for the same return if not more? He could play '23-24 and refuse to do a contract until July 1. 2024 when the cap jumps significantly and now his asking price is $12-13M instead of $10M per, knowing if the Blues won't pay it someone else will. Is Armstrong going to be willing to write that check? He could say "I'll take your 'hometown' discount but only if I'm getting a full NMC for the length of the contract, no exceptions. Oh, and I want signing bonus money too." Those two things are things Armstrong is adamant about not giving; is he suddenly going to cave in with a guy he went out and traded for, when he wouldn't do that with anyone else he traded for or anyone else who came up through the Blues system? And how does that resonate in the locker room?

I don't think Chychrun fixes the defense - arguably he's a better version of Torey Krug, but if you want that just wait for Perunovich to get healthy and throw him in that role for less money and longer control - but I'd agree that he's still an upgrade. Again, I don't think the cost is worth it for the Blues given where the franchise is at right now.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

But what good does having Meier and a few other good players on an otherwise crappy team do for the Blues over the next 5+ years? Why are the Sharks trying to trade Meier if draft picks are so crappy?

Kyrou and Thomas, the two players some posters in this thread suggest justify a Meier trade due to their age, were not drafted in the top 20. Draft picks are, unsurprisingly, valuable to a rebuilding or retooling team. That's why teams trade effective players for picks, which is exactly what the Sharks are trying to do with Meier.

Because a) not all situations are equal and b) the Sharks haven't traded him yet. Maybe they will extend him? Or maybe a young player gets stale in the same situation for too long and both sides need to move on. But this has nothing to do with a bad decision that the Sharks might make but a potentially good decision that the Blues have an opportunity to make.

So again, I agree that Meier on a reasonable extension would be great for the Blues. But there's no cost control here, this situation is the polar opposite of control.

He's not under contract next year - no control
He has the unilateral right to not play for less than a 1 year 10M QO - no control

Sure, perhaps a team could work things out with Meier, but that's a very different thing.

I'm not sure what you are arguing about here. Obviously, the higher the package of assets, the more likely an extension is in place. Any team adding him for one year at $10M isn't going to have to spend much to get him. Didn't think I would need to connect those dots but there you go.

 

[EastVillageBlues]

That’s pretty disingenuous. Would you have called Tarasenko a 2nd line player at the age range? Meier is essentially a more physical version.

With that being said, depending on your assessment of a B prospect I don’t think we’re serious contenders for this one either.

Nah, Tarasenko had a very long track record. And he has also rounded out his game, especially his passing / puck handling skills over the years.

Meier is a one trick pony. And wildly inconsistent over his career as well. Some years he would put up 70+ points, some years only about 30. You never know what you are going to get from him in any given season.

Paying 10M per year for him is basically suicide for any team wishing to contend.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I'm not sure what you are arguing about here. Obviously, the higher the package of assets, the more likely an extension is in place. Any team adding him for one year at $10M isn't going to have to spend much to get him. Didn't think I would need to connect those dots but there you go.

The characterization of Meier being 'cost controlled' seems at direct odds with any prior usage of the phrase. That's what I was pushing back on.

 

[Linds]

I'm not taking salary cap advice from a Wild fan. You do realize teams are allowed to have more than one good forward on the roster, right?































Just because Colorado's retool took almost a decade doesn't mean ours would.







Not enough good pieces in place for it to be a quick re tool that whole d core is old

 

[Hinterland]

Nah, Tarasenko had a very long track record. And he has also rounded out his game, especially his passing / puck handling skills over the years.

Meier is a one trick pony. And wildly inconsistent over his career as well. Some years he would put up 70+ points, some years only about 30. You never know what you are going to get from him in any given season.

Paying 10M per year for him is basically suicide for any team wishing to contend.

Dumb post. Meier is very consistent. Except for his first two seasons when his TOI was down due to him dealing with mono, he has been incredibly consistent. He's at almost PPG pace for the 2nd season in a row...and with proper PP-time he'd have had similar point totals in all seasons he was healthy. If you look at his scoring over the years, the biggest difference is actually the PP. He didn't get regular PP-time until last season. Also keep in mind that he did all of this on a bad team.

Also, Meier has value way beyond scoring. He's as strong on the puck as anybody and he's one of the league's most efficient hitters as well. He's a difference maker.

 

[HBK27]

I don't see why the QO is such a big deal when it's basically agreed that an extension would be $9M. Any team acquiring him would be fine with the QO at a minimum, and if he doesn't extend, you can flip him at the next deadline. If he was due for more of a $7M extension, then the QO would be more of an issue, but it's just about a $1M premium, that's not that big of a deal.

I don't think it's agreed upon that an extension would be $9M, but I get what you're saying - not a huge difference between the cost of an extension versus his QO. I'm just not sure how many teams (even if they're Cup contenders) would be comfortable going into the season with a pending UFA Meier at $10M. There's also a chance that he's only willing to extend with a very limited number of teams, which would reduce the return on any offseason deal.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dumb post. Meier is very consistent. Except for his first two seasons when his TOI was down due to him dealing with mono, he has been incredibly consistent. He's at almost PPG pace for the 2nd season in a row...and with proper PP-time he'd have had similar point totals in all seasons he was healthy. If you look at his scoring over the years, the biggest difference is actually the PP. He didn't get regular PP-time until last season.

Of his PP goals, where does he primarily score them from? Is he a shooter on the half-boards or more of a guy that scores around the net on the PP.

I don't think it's agreed upon that an extension would be $9M, but I get what you're saying - not a huge difference between the cost of an extension versus his QO. I'm just not sure how many teams (even if they're Cup contenders) would be comfortable going into the season with a pending UFA Meier at $10M. There's also a chance that he's only willing to extend with a very limited number of teams, which would reduce the return on any offseason deal.

At a bare minimum, it would be 8.5. I agree though, it'll be tough for teams against the cap or if Meier is really focused on certain teams. Meier isn't your typical RFA, where he comes with years of control, it's 1 high cap season at 10M, and then UFA.

 

[EastVillageBlues]

Dumb post. Meier is very consistent. Except for his first two seasons when his TOI was down due to him dealing with mono, he has been incredibly consistent. He's at almost PPG pace for the 2nd season in a row...and with proper PP-time he'd have had similar point totals in all seasons he was healthy. If you look at his scoring over the years, the biggest difference is actually the PP. He didn't get regular PP-time until last season. Also keep in mind that he did all of this on a bad team.

Also, Meier has value way beyond scoring. He's as strong on the puck as anybody and he's one of the league's most efficient hitters as well. He's a difference maker.

He only has had two 60 point seasons so far. That's a couple steps above Ho-Sang in terms of consistency, with some 30s and 40s point seasons that actually is the majority of his career.

You guys basically gambled and lost. His QO right now far outstrips his actual value. If no deal is made in the next 10 days, he will likely walk scott free.

 

[Hinterland]

Of his PP goals, where does he primarily score them from? Is he a shooter on the half-boards or more of a guy that scores around the net on the PP.


At a bare minimum, it would be 8.5. I agree though, it'll be tough for teams against the cap or if Meier is really focused on certain teams. Meier isn't your typical RFA, where he comes with years of control, it's 1 high cap season at 10M, and then UFA.

Well, in theory he does mostly play the half wall now (which wasn't always the case prior to him getting put on the Sharks top unit) but I'd say it's still about 50/50. Despite playing the half wall, he scores many of his PP goals by either getting rebounds/deflections in the slot or by just firing bombs through defenders from center ice.

 

[WTFetus]

He only has had two 60 point seasons so far. That's a couple steps above Ho-Sang in terms of consistency, with some 30s and 40s point seasons that actually is the majority of his career.

You guys basically gambled and lost. His QO right now far outstrips his actual value. If no deal is made in the next 10 days, he will likely walk scott free.

You realize his 31 point season was during the COVID-shortened season where he only played 54 games right?
But yeah, 0.8 ppg over the last 5 seasons is just a "couple steps" above Ho-Sang.

 

[Hinterland]

He only has had two 60 point seasons so far. That's a couple steps above Ho-Sang in terms of consistency, with some 30s and 40s point seasons that actually is the majority of his career.

You guys basically gambled and lost. His QO right now far outstrips his actual value. If no deal is made in the next 10 days, he will likely walk scott free.

Again, look at his PP-time and numbers. They're most if not all of the difference in all but the first two years. If you don't understand that, I may feel sorry for you but it's not my fault.
Also, I don't gamble. At least not with my hard earned money. So I'm not sure what you're trying to tell me.

You realize his 31 point season was during the COVID-shortened season where he only played 54 games right?
But yeah, 0.8 ppg over the last 5 seasons is just a "couple steps" above Ho-Sang.

This.
And again, if Meier gets primary PP-time over all five seasons and not just this current and the last one he'd be very close to PPG. Also, if he doesn't start his NHL career fighting mono he likely scores much more in his first two seasons as well.

 

[themelkman]

He only has had two 60 point seasons so far. That's a couple steps above Ho-Sang in terms of consistency, with some 30s and 40s point seasons that actually is the majority of his career.

You guys basically gambled and lost. His QO right now far outstrips his actual value. If no deal is made in the next 10 days, he will likely walk scott free.

One of the least educated, least thought out posts I have seen recently.

Thats saying something considering im active in the timo meier main board discussions

 

[BlueTacos]

Seems blues fans have spoken. We are just not interested in timo. Prob should close thread