Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part VI

[Dbrownss]

The question wasn't about whether there was a locker room issue, Maroon had plenty of room to ignore it and be fine. Instead he went out of his way to say that it wasn't true.

Fair point. I still dont think it's made up, but most likely overblown.

 

[The Note]

Kinda OT but it’s a Blues-centric episode of Spittin Chiclets today with Bortz and Jon Hamm as the interviews. They make reference to it on the pod but Bortuzzo says “ya know” about every 2.5 seconds.

 

[Majorityof1]

Saying nothing implies there is something. Damned if you do, damned if dont.

What Thallis said. This was the question: "What was it like earlier in the year hearing that the 2018-19 season was essentially over, and the team would not make the playoffs?". He easily could have avoided the locker room issue. Neither of the other two mentioned it. It was also the first question, and Maroon steered his response directly there, so I think he has some beef with that story line.

 

[BlueDream]

What Thallis said. This was the question: "What was it like earlier in the year hearing that the 2018-19 season was essentially over, and the team would not make the playoffs?". He easily could have avoided the locker room issue. Neither of the other two mentioned it. It was also the first question, and Maroon steered his response directly there, so I think he has some beef with that story line.

Well if I recall, there were rumors swirling earlier in the year about him. Not from anyone credible, but just random fans on Twitter and the Asylum that were claiming that he was unhappy here and didn't like the locker room, etc etc. so I do understand if he takes that to heart, especially being an STL guy and all. Not to mention the start of the year was rough for him on the ice, so that probably didn't help having to hear about all that and people potentially assuming that he, as one of the new guys, was one of the problems in there.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If Maroon is brought back, I think at least part of the reason would be his attitude. The dude is always smiling and upbeat. If he brings that tone to practice and the locker room, it can rub off on other players. I think the chances may be greater than not that they find a slot for him to re-sign.

 

[Dbrownss]

If Maroon is brought back, I think at least part of the reason would be his attitude. The dude is always smiling and upbeat. If he brings that tone to practice and the locker room, it can rub off on other players. I think the chances may be greater than not that they find a slot for him to re-sign.

We can start a cheerleader core and he can head it.

 

[MissouriMook]

I would be fine with Maroon back in the right role and at the right salary and term. But when I look at the roster I’m not sure there is really room. I’m less positive than many that Kyrou will be ready, but I’d still like to see them upgrade that position. But right now, I’m liking Maroon’s ability to win board battles and be strong on the puck. He lacks finish, but he’s been part of an effective cycle for several weeks now. I wouldn’t be disappointed if he were back, but I’d want to see what the lineup was.

Bringing Maroon back would feel like settling at a time when we should be pushing to be better. Maybe he finds another gear and becomes the player we all hoped he would be in the playoffs. Still, what we have seen from him even in his positive stretches is all of the things you described, but I feel like even an average 3rd liner does those things and more.

He's become good on board battles, he's become good at cycling the puck and he adds some toughness. I just feel like you can find plenty of guys for $2M (give or take) that can do those things and actually have average to above average speed and can put up 30-40 points.

 

[Brian39]

Bringing Maroon back would feel like settling at a time when we should be pushing to be better. Maybe he finds another gear and becomes the player we all hoped he would be in the playoffs. Still, what we have seen from him even in his positive stretches is all of the things you described, but I feel like even an average 3rd liner does those things and more.

He's become good on board battles, he's become good at cycling the puck and he adds some toughness. I just feel like you can find plenty of guys for $2M (give or take) that can do those things and actually have average to above average speed and can put up 30-40 points.

I think that is a pretty unrealistic expectation. I do this type of post a lot, but I think it is worth repeatedly emphasizing what exactly is a reasonable expectation for offensive production.

There are currently 224 forwards with 27 points or more. With just a week left in the season, that makes it incredibly unlikely that we see 225 30 point forwards in a year where scoring is up. There are 151 forwards with 37 or more points, making it pretty unlikely that we see 150 40 point forwards this year. With 31 NHL teams, that means that there are essentially 279 'top 9' forward spots in the NHL. 30-40 point production puts a guy into low end 2nd line or top end 3rd line production. Combine that with 100+ hits, a decent 2 way game and the ability to control possession down low and you suddenly don't have a whole lot of guys available in UFA.

Riley Nash got 41 points last year at least partially because he got the dream-role of filling in for Bergeron on Boston's top line for a decent stretch. He got a 3 year, $2.75 mil AAV contract with Columbus and has managed a whopping 11 points this year.

Grabner's 36 points netted him a 3 year, $3.35 mil AAV deal last summer (with a modified NTC).

Derek Ryan's 38 point year got him a 3 year, $3.125 mil deal from Calgary. At the time he signed that, he was a 31 year old with 153 career NHL games and just the one 30+ point season on his resume since he didn't break into the league full time until he was 30.

Komarov came off a 19 point year after 3 years of being a 25-35 point guy and was given a 4 year, $3 mil AAV contract (with a modified NTC).

Vanek got a 1 year, $3 mil deal with a full NTC.

Filppula's 33 points got a 1 year, $2.75 mil deal with a full NMC.

Riley Sheahan is the closest thing to what you describe who got around $2 mil. He got a 1 year, $2.1 mil deal last summer after posting 32 points. However, he has been a possession nightmare most his career and isn't nearly as physical as Maroon. In other words, at $2 mil, you might get the low end of that 30-40 point production, but you aren't getting it from a guy who can also do all the tings Maroon does well.

I'm not married to Maroon. I'll be fine if the Blues move on from him, but people need to temper their expectations about his replacement. If we're talking about spending less than $2.5 mil on his replacement in UFA, we are almost certainly not upgrading the roster spot. Spending less than $3 mil on UFA forwards buys you a pretty damn flawed player. Again, I'm not saying that we have to re-sign Maroon, but that reality needs to be taken into consideration when you make that decision. Unless there is a clear plan to upgrade, I think it makes sense to test the waters on another discount contract for Maroon. For all of his flaws, Maroon has absolutely been worth his contract this year.

 

[Dbrownss]

I think that is a pretty unrealistic expectation. I do this type of post a lot, but I think it is worth repeatedly emphasizing what exactly is a reasonable expectation for offensive production.

There are currently 224 forwards with 27 points or more. With just a week left in the season, that makes it incredibly unlikely that we see 225 30 point forwards in a year where scoring is up. There are 151 forwards with 37 or more points, making it pretty unlikely that we see 150 40 point forwards this year. With 31 NHL teams, that means that there are essentially 279 'top 9' forward spots in the NHL. 30-40 point production puts a guy into low end 2nd line or top end 3rd line production. Combine that with 100+ hits, a decent 2 way game and the ability to control possession down low and you suddenly don't have a whole lot of guys available in UFA.

Riley Nash got 41 points last year at least partially because he got the dream-role of filling in for Bergeron on Boston's top line for a decent stretch. He got a 3 year, $2.75 mil AAV contract with Columbus and has managed a whopping 11 points this year.

Grabner's 36 points netted him a 3 year, $3.35 mil AAV deal last summer (with a modified NTC).

Derek Ryan's 38 point year got him a 3 year, $3.125 mil deal from Calgary. At the time he signed that, he was a 31 year old with 153 career NHL games and just the one 30+ point season on his resume since he didn't break into the league full time until he was 30.

Komarov came off a 19 point year after 3 years of being a 25-35 point guy and was given a 4 year, $3 mil AAV contract (with a modified NTC).

Vanek got a 1 year, $3 mil deal with a full NTC.

Filppula's 33 points got a 1 year, $2.75 mil deal with a full NMC.

Riley Sheahan is the closest thing to what you describe who got around $2 mil. He got a 1 year, $2.1 mil deal last summer after posting 32 points. However, he has been a possession nightmare most his career and isn't nearly as physical as Maroon. In other words, at $2 mil, you might get the low end of that 30-40 point production, but you aren't getting it from a guy who can also do all the tings Maroon does well.

I'm not married to Maroon. I'll be fine if the Blues move on from him, but people need to temper their expectations about his replacement. If we're talking about spending less than $2.5 mil on his replacement in UFA, we are almost certainly not upgrading the roster spot. Spending less than $3 mil on UFA forwards buys you a pretty damn flawed player. Again, I'm not saying that we have to re-sign Maroon, but that reality needs to be taken into consideration when you make that decision. Unless there is a clear plan to upgrade, I think it makes sense to test the waters on another discount contract for Maroon. For all of his flaws, Maroon has absolutely been worth his contract this year.

He's absolutely worth the contract he got but I'd wager he won't be worth what he wants. He's gifted a PP he doesnt excel at. Doesn't play PK and largely seems to have only gotten better because of Thomas...at least the eye test. I dont want to weigh down Thomas with Maroon moving forward. I'd be far more interested in what we can bring up from San Antonio(Nolan/Poganski) then bringing Maroon back with any term. It's a shame Foley has concussion issues...he'd be the ideal guy for that role.

 

[LGB]

He's absolutely worth the contract he got but I'd wager he won't be worth what he wants. He's gifted a PP he doesnt excel at. Doesn't play PK and largely seems to have only gotten better because of Thomas...at least the eye test. I dont want to weigh down Thomas with Maroon moving forward. I'd be far more interested in what we can bring up from San Antonio(Nolan/Poganski) then bringing Maroon back with any term. It's a shame Foley has concussion issues...he'd be the ideal guy for that role.

Maroon has produced pretty well on the PP actually. He's 5th on the team in PP P/60, and the team actually scores at the highest rate when he is on the ice along with having no SH GA.

Just to add something more tangible to it. The PP produces equivalent to a 29% PP percentage with him on the ice which is #1. The team has the lowest conversion rate with Schwartz on the ice about equivalent to 16%.

 

[MissouriMook]

...

I'm not married to Maroon. I'll be fine if the Blues move on from him, but people need to temper their expectations about his replacement. If we're talking about spending less than $2.5 mil on his replacement in UFA, we are almost certainly not upgrading the roster spot. Spending less than $3 mil on UFA forwards buys you a pretty damn flawed player. Again, I'm not saying that we have to re-sign Maroon, but that reality needs to be taken into consideration when you make that decision. Unless there is a clear plan to upgrade, I think it makes sense to test the waters on another discount contract for Maroon. For all of his flaws, Maroon has absolutely been worth his contract this year.

I guess I just look at a guy like Sundqvist and feel like he could have easily put up those kind of points given Maroon's assignments this season. Sure, he came out of nowhere this season with his production, but he's still likely going to give us 30+ points while being better than Maroon at everything except fighting. What happens if we re-sign Maroon and add another Top 9 forward? Probably relegating Sunny back to a 4th line role. Bottom line: I'd much rather have a 3rd line full of Sundqvists than to make the mistake of bringing back Maroon.

 

[Majorityof1]

He's absolutely worth the contract he got but I'd wager he won't be worth what he wants. He's gifted a PP he doesnt excel at. Doesn't play PK and largely seems to have only gotten better because of Thomas...at least the eye test. I dont want to weigh down Thomas with Maroon moving forward. I'd be far more interested in what we can bring up from San Antonio(Nolan/Poganski) then bringing Maroon back with any term. It's a shame Foley has concussion issues...he'd be the ideal guy for that role.

Based on the advanced stats, Maroon isn't really dragging Thomas down. Thomas' points scored with Maroon vs without Maroon ratio is virtually identical to the TOI with Maroon/ without Maroon ratio. His GF%, CF%, FF%, SF% and SCF% are all a bit higher with Maroon than without. Maroon is a decent complimentary player to skilled players when you have no other skilled options. He played well with Getzlaf and McDavid. He didn't bring them down. He isn't going to drive the play but he can do things to help those players get space or get them the puck in space..

If we don't want to move Thomas up to play with Tarasenko, Schwartz or other skilled players, then having a cheap guy who can play with really good players isn't a bad option. I just don't want to pay a ton for it, nor give Maroon term in case he starts to slow down even more. For 2x $2.5M, I'd consider it. But you are right, not for what he probably wants. There are other guys I'd rather have, and be willing to go higher on. There is no guarantee they'd come here or would be affordable. Its a bit of a wait and see for me.

 

[Brian39]

He's absolutely worth the contract he got but I'd wager he won't be worth what he wants. He's gifted a PP he doesnt excel at. Doesn't play PK and largely seems to have only gotten better because of Thomas...at least the eye test. I dont want to weigh down Thomas with Maroon moving forward. I'd be far more interested in what we can bring up from San Antonio(Nolan/Poganski) then bringing Maroon back with any term. It's a shame Foley has concussion issues...he'd be the ideal guy for that role.

I'm totally fine walking away from Maroon if he is asking for market value. I'd prefer to walk away in that scenario.

But if he wants to stay in St. Louis, be around his son and try to win a Cup here, then I think the Blues should explore how little they can pay him to accomplish those goals. Unlike the first 25 games or so of the season, I do not think he is a detriment to this team and I think the odds of us upgrading him as the 9th forward for less than $2.5 mil AAV are slim to none. I'm vehemently opposed to walking away from a good-contract-Maroon if the contingency plan is to bring up a guy like Nolan/Poganski. Maroon's skill is absolutely limited, but he is skilled enough to compliment the 3rd line while also bringing a physical presence and dictating possession.

Again, if he wants to cash in on his next contract, then we should walk away. But contracts aside, I don't think we accomplish 'addition by subtraction' by simply removing him from the organization.

 

[Majorityof1]

I guess I just look at a guy like Sundqvist and feel like he could have easily put up those kind of points given Maroon's assignments this season. Sure, he came out of nowhere this season with his production, but he's still likely going to give us 30+ points while being better than Maroon at everything except fighting. What happens if we re-sign Maroon and add another Top 9 forward? Probably relegating Sunny back to a 4th line role. Bottom line: I'd much rather have a 3rd line full of Sundqvists than to make the mistake of bringing back Maroon.

If we are looking to add another top 9 forward, we move out Steen or don't bring Maroon back. But that's a risk-reward. If we don't land our Top 9 UFA, we are stuck with nothing.

Sunqvist coming from nowhere to do what he did is rare enough you can't count on it. Would we like a 3rd line full of 15g, 30p defensively responsible players who rock on the PK and make $1M? Of course, thats a no-brainer. But more likely we get a 3rd line of Sanford's. Inconsistent players who put up a few points when playing with our skilled lines but can't generate much on their own and are fairly weak on possession and defense.

 

[Brian39]

I guess I just look at a guy like Sundqvist and feel like he could have easily put up those kind of points given Maroon's assignments this season. Sure, he came out of nowhere this season with his production, but he's still likely going to give us 30+ points while being better than Maroon at everything except fighting. What happens if we re-sign Maroon and add another Top 9 forward? Probably relegating Sunny back to a 4th line role. Bottom line: I'd much rather have a 3rd line full of Sundqvists than to make the mistake of bringing back Maroon.

It's a pretty limited sample size, but Maroon has been outproducing Sunny since Sunny was put on the 2nd line and Maroon has been on the 3rd line. Success as a bottom six guy often doesn't translate to success when given extra offensive responsibility.

Additionally, Maroon hits about 30% more than Sunny, has an expected +/- of 12 (compared to Sunny's expected +2), and has pretty noticeably better possession numbers than Sunny. You are lost in your own narrative if you are claiming that Sunny does everything better than Maroon except fighting. I don't think this is a fluke from Sunny and I absolutely think he has more offensive skills than Marron does. But Maroon is absolutely a better player off the puck than Sunny is.

 

[Dbrownss]

Maroon has produced pretty well on the PP actually. He's 5th on the team in PP P/60, and the team actually scores at the highest rate when he is on the ice along with having no SH GA.

Just to add something more tangible to it. The PP produces equivalent to a 29% PP percentage with him on the ice which is #1. The team has the lowest conversion rate with Schwartz on the ice about equivalent to 16%.

Iirc his numbers were inflated in the first part of the season from dumb luck. Now the eye test says he's not a integral part of the PP.

Based on the advanced stats, Maroon isn't really dragging Thomas down. Thomas' points scored with Maroon vs without Maroon ratio is virtually identical to the TOI with Maroon/ without Maroon ratio. His GF%, CF%, FF%, SF% and SCF% are all a bit higher with Maroon than without. Maroon is a decent complimentary player to skilled players when you have no other skilled options. He played well with Getzlaf and McDavid. He didn't bring them down. He isn't going to drive the play but he can do things to help those players get space or get them the puck in space..

If we don't want to move Thomas up to play with Tarasenko, Schwartz or other skilled players, then having a cheap guy who can play with really good players isn't a bad option. I just don't want to pay a ton for it, nor give Maroon term in case he starts to slow down even more. For 2x $2.5M, I'd consider it. But you are right, not for what he probably wants. There are other guys I'd rather have, and be willing to go higher on. There is no guarantee they'd come here or would be affordable. Its a bit of a wait and see for me.

I was meaning moving forward. I'd look to plant him between Schwartz and Perron. Sunny has done well but you can see he's starting to fall behind with those assignments. He's seems to be half a step behind.

I'm totally fine walking away from Maroon if he is asking for market value. I'd prefer to walk away in that scenario.

But if he wants to stay in St. Louis, be around his son and try to win a Cup here, then I think the Blues should explore how little they can pay him to accomplish those goals. Unlike the first 25 games or so of the season, I do not think he is a detriment to this team and I think the odds of us upgrading him as the 9th forward for less than $2.5 mil AAV are slim to none. I'm vehemently opposed to walking away from a good-contract-Maroon if the contingency plan is to bring up a guy like Nolan/Poganski. Maroon's skill is absolutely limited, but he is skilled enough to compliment the 3rd line while also bringing a physical presence and dictating possession.

Again, if he wants to cash in on his next contract, then we should walk away. But contracts aside, I don't think we accomplish 'addition by subtraction' by simply removing him from the organization.

I think Thomas will be moving up the lineup and I'm not enthused about a line with Maroon without an highly skilled guy.

I'm just ready to move on from him. When he's good, he's average. When he's average....he's bad

 

[LGB]

Iirc his numbers were inflated in the first part of the season from dumb luck. Now the eye test says he's not a integral part of the PP.

He's definitely not the most integral part of our PP, but if he can just hold possession when we need him to and park his fat ass in front of the net the rest of the time that's good enough lol. Maybe there is some luck involved, but the sample size is pretty good and his xG rate is only a bit lower (equivalent to a 25.5% conversion rate).

 

[Dbrownss]

He's definitely not the most integral part of our PP, but if he can just hold possession when we need him to and park his fat ass in front of the net the rest of the time that's good enough lol. Maybe there is some luck involved, but the sample size is pretty good and his xG rate is only a bit lower (equivalent to a 25.5% conversion rate).

That's fair but a pretty low bar. His holding possession is, keep the puck until Thomas can come and get the puck. More times then not, the play will die on his stick. I just dont see him as that hard to replace

 

[LGB]

That's fair but a pretty low bar. His holding possession is, keep the puck until Thomas can come and get the puck. More times then not, the play will die on his stick. I just dont see him as that hard to replace

You can definitely find another guy to fill that role, but I think Maroon is actually pretty good at those specific things. Anyway, I was just interjecting about the PP point as far as whether or not to bring him back next year I'm not sure. I'm not really good at estimating contract value and how much guys will sign for.

 

[BlueDream]

Definitely depends on the price. If Maroon is smart, he will try to get more money that he won't get here. I understand the draw to STL but he does have to try to earn as much while he still can. He probably only has a few years left in the league.

For the Blues, if they have to pursue another bottom 6 forward, looks like these would be their UFA options based on capfriendly:

Colin Wilson
Jamie McGinn
Richard Panik
Brian Boyle
Riley Sheahan
Brett Connolly
Micheal Ferland
Brandon Tanev
Jordan Weal
Marcus Kruger

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

If we bring Maroon back next year, I’d enjoy seeing a top 9 of

Schenn-O’Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Thomas-Perron
Maroon-Bozak-Kyrou

The question at that point is, where does Fabbri fit in? I personally see him getting moved in a package with Eddy for a LHD upgrade if that’s the case.

 

[yogintheaveragebears]

Hasn’t maroon excelled with skilled players his entire career? He’s def giving Thomas more confidence being on his line then without. I also don’t mind maroon looking out for the smallish rookie while he continues to adapt to the nhl. Not at all what army had in mind when he signed him but it ended up working out in my opinion.

 

[Dbrownss]

Hasn’t maroon excelled with skilled players his entire career? He’s def giving Thomas more confidence being on his line then without. I also don’t mind maroon looking out for the smallish rookie while he continues to adapt to the nhl. Not at all what army had in mind when he signed him but it ended up working out in my opinion.

Yes..Generational talent. When I watch games, I just dont see him doing anything that I'd attribute to being unique to him.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

No pressure if we want the division title, folks. We just have to win tomorrow night, then hope Winnipeg doesn't win both games and we go at least a point better than them. Oh, and we also need Nashville to not do a point better than us.

At Chicago, then back home for Philadelphia. Do you start Allen at all? If so, which game?

 

[Dbrownss]

No pressure if we want the division title, folks. We just have to win tomorrow night, then hope Winnipeg doesn't win both games and we go at least a point better than them. Oh, and we also need Nashville to not do a point better than us.

At Chicago, then back home for Philadelphia. Do you start Allen at all? If so, which game?

Doubt they beat Chicago. They'll be in full f*** defense, spoiler mode.

Honestly dont care who the Blues play. This idea that the Jets will go beast mode in the playoffs is misguided....they genuinely dont look good. They arent sitting around waiting for "the real season to begin".