Green = Significant advantage in this category
Blue = Nearly even in this category
Red = Significant disadvantage in this category
| GF | GA | PP% | PK% | | | | | |
| Blues | 3rd | 11th | 2nd | 5th | 14th | +6 | +51 | +17 | 8th |
| Avalanche | 4th | 9th | 7th | 15th | 28th | +27 | +22 | +26 | 21st |
First off, I'd like to apologize for a stat I got wrong in the Wild series post of mine. I'm not sure how I got both wrong, but the Blues were 8th in minor PIMS and the Wild were 29th (for some reason I had 4th and 25th respectively).
Anyways, on to the Avalanche.
If the Blues win the Cup, I think we'll look back and say this was arguably the toughest series. The same can be said for our Cup run in 2019. Every game against Dallas was close and they took us all the way to double overtime in game 7. Bishop made it scary close and it came down to literal inches to decide the series winner. The outcome wasn't clear until the second that it was. But with the Stars, it was kind of unexpected that that series would turn out to be the toughest. Barring a meltdown from the Avs, I think we all sort of expect this to be the toughest round, and for good reason. This is a great team we're up against. At first glance, they have very scary top end talent at forward and defense. MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Kadri. These are far and away their best players. The Avalanche have the best center, winger, and defenseman on paper. The way the Blues win this series is if they toss that piece of paper in the trash and they have the best center, winger, and defenseman during the games.
Now for the stats.
GF and GA...nearly identical. However, what's interesting about this is that all season long we've heard about how the Avalanche are so good at scoring goals, and that they have one of the best offenses in the league. The Blues had 1 more goal than them, lol. And we hear about how the Blues have had sub-par defense this year, yet we only let in 7 more goals than the Avalanche. The Avs certainly have better star power on the back end, and they're likely stronger there overall, but I question their team defense and goaltending. I think if I've got a 1 goal lead with 3 minutes left in the game, I'd rather have the Blues roster than the Avs. Binnington, Faulk, Parayko, O'Reilly, Buchnevich, Schenn, Perron, etc. I like that group much more than anything the Avs can ice in the same scenario.
As for special teams, nobody is surprised that we have the advantage here. You might think that there can't be that big of a gap between the 2nd and 7th best powerplays, but there really is. There are a few teams that are a notch above the rest of the league, and the Blues are one of them. The Avalanche's PP% is actually closer to 17th in the league (10 teams back) than it is to 2nd in the league (5 teams forward) because the gaps between the teams in the top 5 are so large. The only teams that I wouldn't consider having a significantly worse powerplay when compared to the Blues would be the Leafs, Oilers, and Rangers who are all within 2.1% of each other. The gap between the Blues and Avs powerplays isn't huge by any means and it's not as big a gap as in the Wild series, but it's still significant enough that it could be a factor if there's a good amount of penalties being called. As for the PK, we're clearly better there and it's a larger gap. So again, as it was in the Wild series, I don't mind lots of penalties, and the Avs are another team that can take a lot of penalties (12th most). The Avalanche can have a scary powerplay, but ours is scarier, and their PK is clearly worse. And I think the Avs top players are all good candidates to get under the skin of. Kadri obviously will take stupid penalties, but guys like Rantanen and Landeskog are also guys that can get easily frustrated. Even MacKinnon can be annoyed. You start getting rough with these guys and stifle their offense and they're going to get them on edge and us on the powerplay.
To the dot. We're simply better here. By no means are we tops in the league, but the Avalanche are just bad. Landeskog and Compher are the only regular faceoff guys that are above 50%. Besides Kadri, O'Reilly had more faceoff wins this season than any Avalanche player had faceoffs taken (won or lost). Having O'Reilly for faceoffs is so valuable, and when you're playing a team that is poor at best on the dot, it's magnified. Key faceoffs on powerplays, penalty kills, and in late-game situations can be extremely important for possession/killing time/whatever it may be, and with such a significant gap between these teams in that category, it could be a huge factor over the course of a series. I do not mind slowing the game down and getting whistles.
Goals by period? The Avalanche's differential is pretty consistent through each period. However, they score more goals the later it gets into games but they also give up more goals. So we could see some situations where we're trading goals with them late in games, as they're more dangerous offensively but weaker defensively. The Blues on the other hand have very different differentials. Our 2nd period is
easily our best, and our 3rd period is solid, but our 1st leaves much to be desired. This all has translated over to the playoffs for the Blues. We were outscored in the 1st period by 3, but we outscored the Wild by 6 in the 2nd and by 3 in the 3rd. If the Blues can do a better job of weathering the 1st period, they're in good shape heading into the 2nd where they do most of their damage. If you're going into the 2nd period down a goal or 2 against the Blues, you're in trouble.
And now for player matchups. The Avs have the advantage of star power, but the Blues have the advantage of depth. MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar are especially scary. When they're rolling in the offensive zone, I'm fully clenched. How do you defend against them? Keep them in their own zone. Yeah, it's easier said than done. But it's possible to an extent. Faceoff wins to gain possession and our cycle game will have to be big when these guys are on the ice. And if you can consistently keep them away from the puck and waste their shifts, they're going to start getting frustrated. And at all costs you have to avoid blue line/neutral zone turnovers. Their speed will absolutely burn you with odd man rushes. And it's within our best interest to crunch Makar any time he touches the puck in his own zone. Him and Girard aren't very big. O'Reilly will almost certainly be matched up against MacKinnon, and Parayko/Faulk are going to have to be stellar. Faulk especially I think will be important for shutting down offensive rushes through the neutral zone. Force them to dump it in and work for the puck in the corners and along the boards. When the Avs get moving through the middle we're in trouble. Whichever line the Avs consider to be their shutdown line, I'm not sure who they plan on focusing on, if anyone. Tarasenko, Perron, and O'Reilly are the clear threats, with Kyrou looming. Then there's Thomas and Buchnevich who are due to get going. I'll be interested to see which lines get matched up with which, because I really have no idea other than ROR/MacKinnon.
As far as goaltending, if Binnington keeps it up, I like him over Kuemper for sure. As far as I know, this is the first time Kuemper has played past the 1st round, and we've yet to see how he and the Avs respond after a loss because they swept the Preds. And with the Avs only trailing for about 5 minutes in the 1st round, we haven't seen how he plays when a goal against would mean a 2 goal deficit, he's had the comfort of a lead for nearly the entire playoffs so far. Not to mention he was up against Ingram. If Binnington turns into 2019 mode and keeps coming up with huge saves at important moments, watch out, he could steal a game or 2. And we all know how that version of him responds after a loss. But yeah, goaltending could be a huge factor in this series, much more so than against the Wild. Kuemper will need to be big for them.
Keys to the series for each team:
Blues: Keep up the special teams domination. Frustrate the Avs top players into getting penalties, especially guys like Kadri and Rantanen. We need the top 3 lines all rolling. We could afford to have a line not playing so hot against the Wild, we cannot do that against the Avs. Thomas and Buchnevich especially need to get going. I thought Buch was one of our best players in game 6, he needs to continue that and start producing, Thomas will follow. Some goals from our defense would also be great. Leddy has the only goal so far. I know Krug being out is a big hit for our offensive production from the back end, but Faulk is still there, and who knows, maybe Perunovich becomes a secret weapon. He's got 3 points in 3 games. Hit, hit, hit the Avs defense, especially guys like Toews, Makar, and Girard. I'm looking for guys like Schenn and Barbashev to crunch those guys any time they have the puck in their own end. Make them pay for their passes/breakouts, they're bound to start making mistakes when they're afraid of a huge hit coming. Control faceoffs, and limit puck possession from guys like Makar and MacKinnon. Their offense starts with them. Force their top players to defend. Weather the 1st period and continue your 2nd period dominance. Do not let the Avalanche get off to a hot start in 1st periods, they will run it up and you'll be chasing for the rest of the game. Take advantage of the Avs extended break and force them to face adversity early. Depending on when game 1 is, the Avs will not have played a game for about a week, and they're coming off 4 games against probably the weakest team in the playoffs. The Blues on the other hand just played 6 games against a very strong Wild team that had home ice advantage, and they'll have just 3-4 days off since winning the 1st round. On top of that, they're straight down to business being that they're on the road for game 1. The Avs have had the comfort of their home town for nearly a week. Take a game in Colorado and things get interesting. We don't know how this Avs team reacts to a playoff loss, take game 1 and you might get them on their heels/already desperate heading into game 2. Chase Kuemper early, if the Avs start having doubts about their goaltending, it's the beginning of the end. All the pressure is on the Avs to get out of the 2nd round, and nearly everyone has the Avs making it to the finals. Take that pressure and amplify it.
Key players: O'Reilly, Binnington, Faulk
Players to watch: Buchnevich, Thomas, Parayko
Avalanche: Keep it 5 on 5, avoid taking penalties. Your top guys need to produce. Rantanen needs to get going offensively. Kadri needs to avoid stupid penalties/suspension. Kuemper needs to be big in this series, this will be his first big test of the playoffs, and maybe his career. Be able to lose like a winner. Don't let a loss get to you, overcome the adversity and bounce back after losses. Do not underestimate this Blues team and don't let them get you in a hole in the series, especially heading to STL for games 3-4. Take advantage of the Blues' defense and beat them with speed. Get an early lead and build on it. Weather the 2nd period and finish strong in the 3rd. The Blues are scary in the 2nd period, so if you can get past it with little damage done, you're in good shape. Break up the Blues' passing. Their offense comes from their passing skill, so if you can stop passes from going through the middle of your zone, you'll stifle much of their offense. Force the Blues to take low-danger shots from the outside and hope for rebounds. The Blues benefited from Fleury in R1 who would give up tons of rebounds. This was an alternative way for them to produce offense, so if you can stop the passing and the rebounds, you're doing well. Don't let players like Schenn, Perron and company get under your skin, keep your arms down and skate away. Win the matchup battle. Use that home ice to your advantage. Berube is known for making great adjustments period to period and game to game. React quickly and shut down any kind of momentum the Blues hope to gain from these mixups.
Key players: Kuemper, Makar, MacKinnon
Players to watch: Rantanen, Nichushkin, Landeskog
My series prediction: Blues in 7.
