Blue Bullet Report(Updated Apr 22: Expected Draft Value of a Forward Selected Top 90)

[Blue Bullet]

Part III is now available

That is the last of my analysis of the CHL forwards. There are 45 players (15 WHL, 13 OHL, 17QMJHL) that stand out statistically in the 2015 draft that warrant consideration as top 100 picks. While in many years the majority would make it in my top 100 list, with such a deep draft year, players that are generally a 3rd round pick may not go till the 5th.

 

[Blue Bullet]

Analyzing the 2015 NHL Draft: WHL D-Men

In my latest post I look at WHL D-Men to see which ones meet my criteria on what constitutes a good top 100 pick based on height and scoring. In the end there are 10 WHL d-men who make the grade.

https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/05/26/analyzing-the-2015-nhl-draft-whl-d-men/

 

[OilTastic]

haha, I know what you mean. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Buuuut! it maybe that things are looking up with the new GM. Perhaps we can now see better choices being made?

^this is what i'm hoping for, whether or not Stu and the boys are let go after this draft, i want to see the Oilers make better choices at the draft.

 

[dustrock]

In my latest post I look at WHL D-Men to see which ones meet my criteria on what constitutes a good top 100 pick based on height and scoring. In the end there are 10 WHL d-men who make the grade.

https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/05/26/analyzing-the-2015-nhl-draft-whl-d-men/

Interesting. Seems so hard to figure where to rate d-men in a draft.

 

[Blue Bullet]

Interesting. Seems so hard to figure where to rate d-men in a draft.

It really really is. It is why I keep preaching that draft guides are more important for evaluating d-men than forwards. When the stats tell you limited info you need to turn to the scouts.

 

[Blue Bullet]

In my latest post I look at OHL D-Men to see which ones meet my criteria on what constitutes a good top 100 pick based on height and scoring. In the end there are 11 OHL d-men who make the grade.

https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/05/28/analyzing-the-2015-nhl-draft-ohl-d-men/

 

[Blue Bullet]

In my latest post I look at QMJHL D-Men to see which ones meet my criteria on what constitutes a good top 100 pick based on height and scoring. In the end there are 10 d-men who make the grade and one exception.

https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/05/31/analyzing-the-2015-nhl-draft-qmjhl-d-men/

 

[Blue Bullet]

Rethinking How to Draft Goalies

In my latest post I look at goalies drafted between 1998-2006 and look at their success rate of playing 50 NHL games. From there I come up with some rules on drafting goalies and where the best value is in the draft. Also I look at some diamonds in the rough from Europe plus the 4 top goalies in the draft.

https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/

 

[Blue Bullet]

The Americans are coming

In my lastest post I look at the US developmental leagues.

 

[Blue Bullet]

Which Draft Guide was the Best?

In my latest post I review various draft guides for their accuracy in selections in the top 100. Find out which guide(s) were at the top of the class.

 

[Jephman]

Really great stuff!

 

[Blue Bullet]

Hello Nurse: CHL Statistical Comparables and Expectations

In my latest post I try to find CHL players drafted between 1998 and 2009 who posted similar numbers to Darnell Nurse (with and without powerplay points included). I also look into how those comparable players performed in their third season after their draft year.

 

[Aerrol]

In my latest post I try to find CHL players drafted between 1998 and 2009 who posted similar numbers to Darnell Nurse (with and without powerplay points included). I also look into how those comparable players performed in their third season after their draft year.

I really liked this breakdown. Gives a lot more weight to the hype behind nurse. That said, I'd like to see your reports go into the actual skillsets possessed (if you are able to do that). For instance, you mention the importance of moving the puck up - but other things such as offensive awareness, shot, gap control, etc, would be nice to hear about. I understand that's much harder to analyze, requiring video watching etc, but it'd be very interesting to see.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

In my latest post I review various draft guides for their accuracy in selections in the top 100. Find out which guide(s) were at the top of the class.

This is really cool. I wonder if doing ratings based upon how far off their picks ended up being (e.g. sum the deltas) might be better because the tiers could be a bit unlucky (as your 5 picks just outside a tier showed).

 

[Blue Bullet]

Griffin Reinhart Part Deux

In my latest post I look further into the statistical comparable players for Griffin Reinhart.

 

[Aerrol]

In my latest post I look further into the statistical comparable players for Griffin Reinhart.

I've seen a lot of posters say they see some Coburn in Griffin, so it's nice to see the numbers back that up. Hopefully he continues on that trend!

 

[Kerricthebig]

Another good read, as always BB.

 

[Bangers]

Reinhart won't be another Teubert. I have no idea how Teubert was drafted so high, because his decision-making in junior was absolutely horrible.

If Reinhart doesn't turn out, it will likely be due to injuries or his skating (Cowan is a much better compareable for his downside).

 

[Spawn]

Thanks for the work! The comparables do not fill me with a tonne of hope for the player

Hopefully he is on the higher end and we get a top 4 player out of the deal.

 

[Blue Bullet]

Update on the Blue Bullet Report:

With the summer over and hockey season upon us there will be a return to more frequent posting. Later this month I will be focusing in on whether % of team scoring is a good predictor of future success for first year CHL draft eligible forwards.

My next couple posts will take a slight change as I make my predictions for the 2015-2016 Oilers roster. These are how I see the goalies working out.

 

[Blue Bullet]

In my latest post I look at whether percentage of team scoring in a CHL forwards first draft eligible season is a good predictor of their career NHL season. Basically how much does carrying the load matter.

 

[Blue Bullet]

NHL Point Prediction Model for CHL Forwards

My latest post centres around updating the NHLP formula, used for predicting NHL potential in first year draft eligible forwards from the CHL. This summer I did research into percentage contribution to team scoring and have added that into the model. While last year's model focused on points-per-game, by adding % of team scoring, the updated model factors in the strength of the team as players point totals can be elevated by playing on a good team or dragged down when playing on a poor team. If you take anything from my research is that junior scoring is an important tool when evaluating draft eligible CHL forwards. In the coming weeks I will be showcasing the NHLP scores for every 1st round pick from the CHL since 1998.

 

[Blue Bullet]

Applying the NHLP Formula: Top 3 Overall Picks

In today's post I have applied the NHLP formula to every top 3 overall pick since 1998. See how current Oilers McDavid, Hall, Draisaitl, RNH and Yakupov compare to other top 3 picks.

 

[KenLinsemanFanClub]

In today's post I have applied the NHLP formula to every top 3 overall pick since 1998. See how current Oilers McDavid, Hall, Draisaitl, RNH and Yakupov compare to other top 3 picks.

Link's not working. I received a "page not found" notice when I tried to read it. Hopefully not just me.

 

[Kerricthebig]

Link's not working. I received a "page not found" notice when I tried to read it. Hopefully not just me.

BB made a mistake in the date in the link.

Link is : http://bluebulletreport.com/2015/09/26/applying-the-nhlp-formula-top-3-overall-picks/

Should be : http://bluebulletreport.com/2015/09/30/applying-the-nhlp-formula-top-3-overall-picks/