Blue Bullet Report(Updated Apr 22: Expected Draft Value of a Forward Selected Top 90)

Blue Bullet · Apr 27, 2015

Supermassive · Apr 27, 2015

Yeah baby.
Mods should sticky this.

Master Lok · Apr 28, 2015

If you've have never followed Blue Bullet, I would highly recommend this for anyone interested in the draft. I've read Blue Bullet draft series leading up to the draft every year for years and it helps me gain insight into each player in the draft.

CornKicker · Apr 28, 2015

i tend to avoid BB's draft write ups because the more i know the madder i get when the oilers take musil instead of Jenner or Saad

Master Lok · Apr 28, 2015

CornKicker said:
i tend to avoid BB's draft write ups because the more i know the madder i get when the oilers take musil instead of Jenner or Saad

haha, I know what you mean. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Buuuut! it maybe that things are looking up with the new GM. Perhaps we can now see better choices being made?

dustrock · Apr 28, 2015

Always a great read, Blue Bullet, thanks.

Alex87 · Apr 28, 2015

I've always enjoyed your writing. Great to hear you've started a blog. *bookmarks*

Blue Bullet · Apr 30, 2015

Thanks for all the kind words and support. The latest post is up. This one looks at using player projections and height to determine what makes a good top 100 pick.

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/30/nhl-projections-what-makes-a-good-top-100-pick/

Jumptheshark · Apr 30, 2015

Blue Bullet said:
I have started a new hockey blog this month called the Blue Bullet Report. The blog is about anything and everything to do with the NHL entry draft and prospects. I have done 8 posts this month, with the main focus being the analysis of past drafts from a statistical point of view and researching how well we can project offensive potential in junior players from the CHL. If you read the Cult of Hockey section, from the Edmonton Journal, you may have come across my Crosby vs McDavid post which was quoted by Jonathan Willis.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...david-to-match-sidney-crosbys-rookie-scoring/

So, if you have been reading along already, than I thank you for the support. And if you are not and a fan of the entry draft than come aboard the train. Every Monday and Thursday morning there will be a new post which you can find at:

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/

Previous posts include:
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/02/welcome-to-the-blue-bullet-report/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/06/predicting-the-future/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/drafting-defenseman-is-hard/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/13/age-matters-sort-of/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/16/the-q-is-not-inferior/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/20/nhl-projections-crosby-vs-mcdavid/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.c...ons-not-all-top-five-picks-are-created-equal/
http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/27/analyzing-d-men-top-10-picks-1998-2014/
https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/04/30/nhl-projections-what-makes-a-good-top-100-pick/

For the month of May the posts will be related to narrowing down the 2015 draft eligible players to focus our attention on.

my problem is how BB dislocates his shoulder patting himself on the back so quickly with what I viewed a sideways views of what he calls getting this correct--guessing who goes in the first round from 1 to 25 is pretty easy in almost every draft--but guessing which team grabs who is where the numbers change for all parties involved

dem · Apr 30, 2015

Is this eventually going to end with a predraft ranking based on your metrics?

Have you done an analytics based ranking of prospects in other years?

thadd · Apr 30, 2015

Amazing piece. Thanks.

Blue Bullet · May 4, 2015

New post is available where I look at the 2015 WHL forwards and their point projections and statistical comparables. This post is Part 1 of 3 for the WHL.

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.c...atistical-projections-and-comparables-part-1/

Blue Bullet · May 4, 2015

dem said:
Is this eventually going to end with a predraft ranking based on your metrics?

Have you done an analytics based ranking of prospects in other years?

If you read my latest post I start to apply the metrics to the 2015 WHL forward class and looking at past comparables.

I have always used analytics in the past for determining rankings but but this is by far the most I used and I never had all this data to fall back on.

Blue Bullet · May 6, 2015

Blue Bullet said:
New post is available where I look at the 2015 WHL forwards and their point projections and statistical comparables. This post is Part 1 of 3 for the WHL.

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.c...atistical-projections-and-comparables-part-1/

Part 2 of 3 is now up.

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.c...atistical-projections-and-comparables-part-2/[/QUOTE]

Blue Bullet · May 7, 2015

Part 3 of 3 is now available.

http://bluebulletreport.wordpress.c...atistical-projections-and-comparables-part-3/

Blue Bullet · May 7, 2015

In the end, based on stats and comparables, there are 15 forwards from the WHL that stand out. The players sorted in order of how they project based on my NHLP formula is:

NAME HT WT G A P
MATHEW BARZAL 5.11 175 17.09 48.41 65.50
NICK MERKLEY 5.11 191 13.70 50.19 63.90
JANSEN HARKINS 6.01 180 15.00 44.30 59.30
JAKE DEBRUSK 6.00 174 28.54 25.37 53.92
PAUL BITTNER 6.04 204 23.18 28.93 52.11
TYLER SOY 6.00 172 21.98 28.28 50.26
RYAN GROPP 6.02 187 24.28 23.64 47.92
GIORGIO ESTEPHAN 6.00 188 20.86 26.52 47.38
BRAD MORRISON 6.00 154 20.95 25.48 46.43
GLENN GAWDIN 6.01 191 13.73 32.69 46.42
JESSE GABRIELLE 5.11 205 22.75 22.49 45.23
AUSTIN WAGNER 6.01 178 19.65 24.64 44.29
PAVEL KARNAUKHOV 6.03 194 19.13 22.98 42.11
KEEGAN KOLESAR 6.01 217 20.60 21.21 41.81
ADAM MUSIL 6.03 202 15.49 26.08 41.57

Blue Bullet · May 11, 2015

In my latest post I analyze the 2015 first year draft eligible forwards from the OHL.

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL playerâ€™s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part I, we will look at the OHL forwards that project to have 50+ point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from.

To contine reading my post click here

Aerrol · May 11, 2015

Good reads. One criticism I have in the Crouse comparables, you call Getzlaf an outlier and kind of dismiss him at that. I don't really disagree, but I'd like some more explanation for why he's an outlier. I mean, you're dealing with fairly small samples as is, it seems odd to take out a comparable just because.

Blue Bullet · May 12, 2015

Aerrol said:
Good reads. One criticism I have in the Crouse comparables, you call Getzlaf an outlier and kind of dismiss him at that. I don't really disagree, but I'd like some more explanation for why he's an outlier. I mean, you're dealing with fairly small samples as is, it seems odd to take out a comparable just because.

I should have better explained my reasoning behind dismissing Getzlaf. It's more about playing the odds. I have 579 players that I have found their NHLP score and of them 381 players had an NHLP of less than 55 points over an 82 game season. Out of them, there has been 11 players that have a career point-per-game of over 0.60. These players are more the exceptions to the rules and are:

BRAD MARCHAND
ANDREW LADD
RYAN GETZLAF
MICHAEL RYDER
BRANDON SAAD
PIERRE-ALEXANDRE PARENTEAU
JAMES NEAL
RYANE CLOWE
MARK STONE
TYLER JOHNSON
MILAN LUCIC

If we limit it to players with a career season of 0.75 points-per-game or better we are left with only one player, Ryan Getzlaf. He is a one of a kind and a bad comparable.

Blue Bullet · May 14, 2015

Blue Bullet said:
In my latest post I analyze the 2015 first year draft eligible forwards from the OHL.

To contine reading my post click here

Part II is now available

Aerrol · May 14, 2015

Blue Bullet said:
I should have better explained my reasoning behind dismissing Getzlaf. It's more about playing the odds. I have 579 players that I have found their NHLP score and of them 381 players had an NHLP of less than 55 points over an 82 game season. Out of them, there has been 11 players that have a career point-per-game of over 0.60. These players are more the exceptions to the rules and are:

BRAD MARCHAND
ANDREW LADD
RYAN GETZLAF
MICHAEL RYDER
BRANDON SAAD
PIERRE-ALEXANDRE PARENTEAU
JAMES NEAL
RYANE CLOWE
MARK STONE
TYLER JOHNSON
MILAN LUCIC

If we limit it to players with a career season of 0.75 points-per-game or better we are left with only one player, Ryan Getzlaf. He is a one of a kind and a bad comparable.

Thanks, this is exactly what I was looking for.

Blue Bullet · May 19, 2015

In my latest post I analyze the 2015 first year draft eligible forwards from the QMJHL.

One way to evaluate prospects is by comparing them statistically against prior draft years. Typically, most people simply compare just points-per-game but that discounts the fact that different players score a different percentage of their points on the power play versus at even strength. I created what I call the NHL Projection formula (NHLP), which is a formula that takes a CHL playerâ€™s non-power play and power play stats in their first draft eligible year and projects what they will produce in their best NHL season. It also takes age into account, which I have found has an effect on only power play production. I have prorated the numbers over an 82 game season. In Part I, we will look at the QMJHL forwards that project to have 60+ point potential in their best NHL season. We will than look at the players that are the most statistically comparable from past draft years. I have gone back and applied the NHLP formula to over 500+ players since the 1998 draft so there is just a couple to choose from.

To contine reading my post click here

Blue Bullet · May 20, 2015

Part II is now available

doulos · May 20, 2015

Thanks for these. Always an interesting read.

nabob · May 20, 2015

Psycho Dad said:
Yeah baby.
Mods should sticky this.

BBO might if he's as excited about it as you are...

Blue Bullet Report(Updated Apr 22: Expected Draft Value of a Forward Selected Top 90)

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