Speculation: Blackhawks Shakeup

[Taylorst]

I think the issue to a guy signed long term after 30, is almost every guy deteriorates year over year.
So your trading for an asset that has already peaked.

The gamble is if its gonna be a Thorton/ Marleau type decline where at 38 they are still NHLers, Jagr type who at almost 40 was still dominant, a Lecavier type who just allnofnthensudden sucks, or somewhere around the average where they just get a bit worse every year.

Imo, Kane will be fine going forward it's the cap hit that will scare teams off. I dunno if a 35 year old P Kane will be worth 10.5, same as a Leafs fan the last year or two of Tavares might be a cap suck

Hopefully the next CBA will address these long term contracts and cap recapture penalty . Your absolutely correct players tend to regress around 28 years old Handing out 7 or 8 year contracts to offset a higher per year salary is asinine but because the league refuses to implement a higher salary cap it handicaps teams each year.

Parity is supposed to create a equal playing field however , when you look at other league's, nba,MLB, NFL they have teams in markets similar to the NHL.

 

[DictatorTots427]

Kruger is expiring right? How about Kruger to the Leafs for a 4th

 

[Taylorst]

Kruger is expiring right? How about Kruger to the Leafs for a 4th

Well take it . Yes his contract expires at the end of the season.

 

[bandwagonesque]

You have to remember where the Hawks were under Dollar Bill. If Rocky sells off stars the moment adversity hits it would be huge gut punch to the fanbase and would bring back memories of his father. Even though you may be right, Bill Wirtz still haunts the Hawks from the grave. Under zero circumstances can Toews and Kane be moved unless they make a request. It would tank the franchise value because they'd lose the trust of the fans. I think the fans could understand Keith, Seabrook and Crawford being moved. I don't think they could understand Toews or Kane being moved. They're finishing their contracts in Chicago unless they want out.

Adversity hit more than a year ago. The Hawks are the worst team in the league and don't have a great farm system. If Hawks fan could accept this, they'd see the sense in trading their older star players. Instead you convince yourselves that the team can retool quickly and posit a bunch of vague, emotionally based reasons why Kane and Toews shouldn't be moved while disregarding the fact that teams in a similar position have generally traded or considered trading their older stars.

 

[GOilers88]

I think the issue to a guy signed long term after 30, is almost every guy deteriorates year over year.
So your trading for an asset that has already peaked.

The gamble is if its gonna be a Thorton/ Marleau type decline where at 38 they are still NHLers, Jagr type who at almost 40 was still dominant, a Lecavier type who just allnofnthensudden sucks, or somewhere around the average where they just get a bit worse every year.

Imo, Kane will be fine going forward it's the cap hit that will scare teams off. I dunno if a 35 year old P Kane will be worth 10.5, same as a Leafs fan the last year or two of Tavares might be a cap suck

I feel like age is something that is immensely overstated around here. It's easy to use the same ten really awful contracts people have seen over the last 10 years and go "that's why you don't pay for guys over 30". However for every truly awful contract you can bring up, theres a handful of guys who continued, and continue to be positive contributors to their teams even though they're in what most people now consider the twilight years of an athletes career. The age of 30.

 

[Taylorst]

I feel like age is something that is immensely overstated around here. It's easy to use the same ten really awful contracts people have seen over the last 10 years and go "that's why you don't pay for guys over 30". However for every truly awful contract you can bring up, theres a handful of guys who continued, and continue to be positive contributors to their teams even though they're in what most people now consider the twilight years of an athletes career. The age of 30.

I agree . The problem is most guys start to dip around 28 29 years old but most guys who are core players or superstar , whatever you wish to call it are coming into new contracts and because the league and players union refuse to implement a realistic higher salary cap to accommodate salaries they have to offer these ridiculous 7 or 8 year contracts to players to reduce the yearly salary range,

If you eliminate either the term from 8 to 5 and the cap re capture penalty along with a higher salary cap it would correct a lot of these contract issues. IMO

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Adversity hit more than a year ago. The Hawks are the worst team in the league and don't have a great farm system. If Hawks fan could accept this, they'd see the sense in trading their older star players. Instead you convince yourselves that the team can retool quickly and posit a bunch of vague, emotionally based reasons why Kane and Toews shouldn't be moved while disregarding the fact that teams in a similar position have generally traded or considered trading their older stars.

From a logical standpoint I completely agree with you but from a practical standpoint they can't risk alienating the fans that just came back again. I will reiterate, Bill Wirtz is still haunting this franchise 10 years after his death.

 

[TML1967]

I agree . The problem is most guys start to dip around 28 29 years old but most guys who are core players or superstar , whatever you wish to call it are coming into new contracts and because the league and players union refuse to implement a realistic higher salary cap to accommodate salaries they have to offer these ridiculous 7 or 8 year contracts to players to reduce the yearly salary range,

If you eliminate either the term from 8 to 5 and the cap re capture penalty along with a higher salary cap it would correct a lot of these contract issues. IMO

I think if you take every guy who plays in the NHL you see a constant and steady decline between 30 and 34/35. And between 34/35 and 40 it goes down fast.

If you take every 'star' (let's just say guys who have over 60 points multiple times) and look at them, most guys decrease slower between 30 and 35, but after 35 they decrease at about the same rate.

This is obviously just my eye test, but it feels like it almost completely depends on what makes them stars. Smart players and guys relying on speed are very different. Same as passers vs dangles vs snipers.

 

[bandwagonesque]

From a logical standpoint I completely agree with you but from a practical standpoint they can't risk alienating the fans that just came back again. I will reiterate, Bill Wirtz is still haunting this franchise 10 years after his death.

What fans just came back? The team has been contending for nearly a decade. Again, teams rebuild all the time. You haven't given any plausible reason the Hawks can't do the same. In fact they are starting from a far better position than most. They have star players to move, the prospect system is actually decent considering how long they've been contending, a few recent picks have hit and are playing, and the market is big enough that the team is at no risk of losing money.

 

[Taylorst]

I think if you take every guy who plays in the NHL you see a constant and steady decline between 30 and 34/35. And between 34/35 and 40 it goes down fast.

If you take every 'star' (let's just say guys who have over 60 points multiple times) and look at them, most guys decrease slower between 30 and 35, but after 35 they decrease at about the same rate.

This is obviously just my eye test, but it feels like it almost completely depends on what makes them stars. Smart players and guys relying on speed are very different. Same as passers vs dangles vs snipers.

Either way 28 or 30 the point is when a player reaches those ages his level of productivity is almost guaranteed to decline from what it once was. But having a salary cap that quite doesn't reflect today's NHL players salaries is a major reason why many nhl teams are handing out these 7 and 8 year contracts to lower the yearly player salary but to extend it far past the players prime which in turn is creating more problems for teams trying to stay competitive.

The new CBA should eliminate the hard cap and consider a considerable salary cap rise as well as eliminate those 6 years plus contracts on players whom are over say the age of 28 .

Then you won't see all these guys playing beyond their time just to return the loyalty back to a team.

 

[ColdSteel2]

What fans just came back? The team has been contending for nearly a decade. Again, teams rebuild all the time. You haven't given any plausible reason the Hawks can't do the same. In fact they are starting from a far better position than most. They have star players to move, the prospect system is actually decent considering how long they've been contending, a few recent picks have hit and are playing, and the market is big enough that the team is at no risk of losing money.

KBS is right, the stadium was empty before Toews and Kane. You have to remember the Hawks weren’t even on TV until 2008. Being a Blackhawks fan was like being a fan of another team in the 1930’s, radio only. And now that they are falling off, tickets are going for peanuts on stubhub.

Logically, what you are saying makes sense. But it’s illogical to not put the games on TV until 2008 and trade away your stars when they want a new contract, which is what fans who are adults now had to deal with as kids. The fanbase isn’t that strong and definitely not as strong as it should be for a recent 3 time Cup winner. There just aren’t a lot of people who have that connection to the team and the NHL in general from their youth, which is important in sustaining loyalty through the lean years. It has been and will be interesting to see how everything unfolds throughout this downswing.

 

[bernmeister]

b4 I forget the other guy LD who is possible here is Sean Day.
1st round talent, premium skating ability. Decent shot.
But needs better defensive aptitude esp at pro level.

Has chance to make it as a W if he strikes out at LD

 

[Space umpire]

It will take a few years for the Hawks to come out of this. Everyone should be available to varying degrees.

Crawford: keep him into next year because they still need someone to play goalie and well he doesn't really have any trade value.

Seabrook: After he collects his signing bonus this July 1st is owed 24.5 in real dollars for 5 seasons (4.9M per) left on his deal. They need to look at how the Leafs traded Phaneuf but had to take on a bunch of useless salaries with short terms left from a team that didn't spend to the cap in Ottawa. They could also hope he develops an allergy to his equipment.

Anisimov: Should have some value around the league. If they don't get a decent offer for him just hold onto him into next year. He collects a 2M signing bonus on July 1st and then is owed 5M for 2 seasons worth of play which will make him very attractive.

Saad: No rush to deal him but he's far from someone worth protecting. He'd have trade value but isn't a core piece to build around either. Is a UFA in 2 years and it'll take at least that long for the Hawks to become good again.

Connor Murphy: keep him to build around unless blown away by an offer. If one or both of Keith & Seabrook get moved the D will be very inexperienced and it takes a very long time to build up a D group.

Crawford has no value? LOL, OK. Kind of stopped reading after that since the value of your opine was clear.

 

[Space umpire]

KBS is right, the stadium was empty before Toews and Kane. You have to remember the Hawks weren’t even on TV until 2008. Being a Blackhawks fan was like being a fan of another team in the 1930’s, radio only. And now that they are falling off, tickets are going for peanuts on stubhub.

Logically, what you are saying makes sense. But it’s illogical to not put the games on TV until 2008 and trade away your stars when they want a new contract, which is what fans who are adults now had to deal with as kids. The fanbase isn’t that strong and definitely not as strong as it should be for a recent 3 time Cup winner. There just aren’t a lot of people who have that connection to the team and the NHL in general from their youth, which is important in sustaining loyalty through the lean years. It has been and will be interesting to see how everything unfolds throughout this downswing.

You couldn't get a seat to a Hawks game until WWW gave the fans the big middlefinger when he sent Murray out to sign Doug Gilmour and Brett Hull then when he saw what it cost to get Gilmour he backed out of the Hull negotiations. I was attending 30+ games at the time and the place was usually jammed. After that it was clear he had no interest in winning. The fans turned their backs on the team. It wasn't until WWW died and then Rocky flipped assets with his brother to get sole control of the team that the fans came back.

 

[Guy Lemieux]

The Hawks are having a horrible season. I think the team will get a shakeup, but I don't know who will get moved. I'd break it down into these categories:
Not going anywhere:
Toews
Kane
DeBrincat
Jokiharju
Boqvist
Strome (we really like him....he's played well since the trade and skating is not as big of an issue as previously thought)
Mitchell

Not going anywhere because his contract is bad:
Seabrook

Would move under the right circumstances:
Saad
Keith
Forsling

Highly available:
Crawford
Anisimov
Murphy (I really don't want to move him, but we pretty much have to because of Seabrook's aircraft carrier anchor of a contract)
Gustafsson

You can take for free:
Kruger
Manning

I'm not sure if anyone is interested in other roster players, if you are let us know.

What We're looking for:
Draft Picks
Starting goalie prospects
young LHD
young F

I agree with your analysis. But the shake up I'm hoping for is Stan Bowman getting fired. He went pretty far on Talon's picks. Time to pay the piper I hope.
Discuss

 

[Dr Quincy]

Hopefully the next CBA will address these long term contracts and cap recapture penalty . Your absolutely correct players tend to regress around 28 years old Handing out 7 or 8 year contracts to offset a higher per year salary is asinine but because the league refuses to implement a higher salary cap it handicaps teams each year.

Parity is supposed to create a equal playing field however , when you look at other league's, nba,MLB, NFL they have teams in markets similar to the NHL.

Or a GM can choose not to sign guys to long term contracts.

 

[Taylorst]

Or a GM can choose not to sign guys to long term contracts.

Every GM in the league has to sign players to 7 and 8 year contracts for their star players because the league in itself is living in some dinosaur day mentality.

Either raise the cap to 110 million on the next CBA to compensate these player salaries or get rid of the cap like they use to have and let these owners cough up the money to buy and build successful teams.


That would put certain franchises feet to the fire to get with the program .

 

[ColdSteel2]

You couldn't get a seat to a Hawks game until WWW gave the fans the big middlefinger when he sent Murray out to sign Doug Gilmour and Brett Hull then when he saw what it cost to get Gilmour he backed out of the Hull negotiations. I was attending 30+ games at the time and the place was usually jammed. After that it was clear he had no interest in winning. The fans turned their backs on the team. It wasn't until WWW died and then Rocky flipped assets with his brother to get sole control of the team that the fans came back.

Right. Our best veteran (Gilmour) and best young player (JP Dumont) for a bumb, Grosek, one of the worst trades in NHL history, took a lot out of us Hawks fans.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Crawford just suffered another concussion so his career is in question at this point. He missed most of last year with Post-Concussion symptoms so I doubt he's playing hockey anymore.

 

[Hookslide]

I disagree. I could see a team like Boston giving up an absurd package for Kane. Kane is still going to be a top RW for a while, and 10m will slowly become more reasonable, especially after this RFA class signs.

What do you consider absurd ? anybody...

 

[COHawk]

I wish the Preds would go after Keith

Edit: Just to expand before it gets crushed. I know he is old and we have people to resign. It's not a realistic scenario.

If any team does not need help on D it is Nashville haha.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

If any team does not need help on D it is Nashville haha.

What a luxury to have on the back end though. We wouldn't have a 3rd paring.