Confirmed with Link: Bill Armstrong is the new GM of the Coyotes

[XX]

This feels so much like Tocchet right down to Armstrong’s lack of eloquence and big bruising oaf persona.

Armstrong has arguably one of the best track records in the league at 75% of what a GM's job is under the salary cap system. Tocchet's abilities beyond being a cheerleader were/are questionable at best. Tocchet had already failed at his job once. Armstrong hasn't. Armstrong has spent 16 years working through (and improving) one organization, Tocchet never did anything of the sort.

I don't think the hirings are similar.

 

[rt]

Armstrong has arguably one of the best track records in the league at 75% of what a GM's job is under the salary cap system. Tocchet's abilities beyond being a cheerleader were/are questionable at best. Tocchet had already failed at his job once. Armstrong hasn't. Armstrong has spent 16 years working through (and improving) one organization, Tocchet never did anything of the sort.

I don't think the hirings are similar.

75% of a GM’s job is not amateur scouting. More like 25%, if that. Hiring a really good amateur scouting director or AGM of amateur scouting is much more important for a GM. So much so that actually being an amateur scout or running an amateur scouting department is maybe more like 5%, rathe than 25% or the outlandish 75% you claimed.

Armstrong has no known hockey ops responsibilities beyond running a single department.

The idea that 16 years with one team is a positive, is highly questionable to me as well. I’d lean more toward that being a negative. Having said that, it obviously helps that the team has been pretty good pretty much the whole time and really good lately.

 

[XX]

75% of a GM’s job is not amateur scouting.

It's talent evaluation. I rate evaluating the sheer amount of data and bullshit in the scouting world and managing a team of scouts (and their personalities) as pretty hard, especially over a long period of success.

How do you win trades consistently? By having a better read on players and assets
How do you generate more assets than you expend? By drafting better than your peers and valuing picks appropriately

That's the majority of success in the cap world.

These skills are more similar to a head scout than not. It's not like he's going to be flying blind either, he'll have a support staff to help manage the cap, structure contracts, manage the farm team etc... same as anyone else.

He's no worse a candidate than Sullivan. He's ahead of where Tocchet was when he was hired.

 

[rt]

It's talent evaluation. I rate evaluating the sheer amount of data and bullshit in the scouting world and managing a team of scouts (and their personalities) as pretty hard, especially over a long period of success.

How do you win trades consistently? By having a better read on players and assets
How do you generate more assets than you expend? By drafting better than your peers and valuing picks appropriately

That's the majority of success in the cap world.

These skills are more similar to a head scout than not. It's not like he's going to be flying blind either, he'll have a support staff to help manage the cap, structure contracts, manage the farm team etc... same as anyone else.

He's no worse a candidate than Sullivan. He's ahead of where Tocchet was when he was hired.

Amateur scouting and pro scouting are not the same. Amateur scouting is not talent evaluation; it’s projection. It’s teenagers playing in amateur leagues. It’s. A super valuable but highly specialized element of hockey ops and I remain wholly unconvinced that it’s much an indicator of overall effectiveness at being an NHL General Manager. It’s not even a typical track. It’s not unheard of, but it’s not common.

He’s easily at least as qualified as Sullivan on paper surely. I won’t argue that. He has more experience but I would argue it’s less relevant experience.

I would say he’s as similar a hire as I can conceive of to Tocchet. And again, I want to reiterate that I feel Tocchet was fine hire. Only hindsight invalidates that.

Armstrong didn’t get his break by being a famous and popular player. So that in and of itself makes me feel better about it than Tocchet. Sullivan got his break for that reason. But he at least paid dues and rose through ranks. Tocchet was just gifted NHL coaching jobs. Which is absolute bullshit.

 

[rt]

I’m not mad we hired Armstrong. But I don’t feel great about it. No more than I would about Burke or Sullivan. The three are basically in the same zone for me.

 

[XX]

Amateur scouting and pro scouting are not the same. Amateur scouting is not talent evaluation; it’s projection. It’s teenagers playing in amateur leagues. It’s. A super valuable but highly specialized element of hockey ops and I remain wholly unconvinced that it’s much an indicator of overall effectiveness at being an NHL General Manager. It’s not even a typical track. It’s not unheard of, but it’s not common.

Pro scouting is also projection. You have to account for a lot of the same factors, you just have the advantage of seeing that player play at the final level.

Armstrong was also an assistant coach (immediately after retiring) and head coach with the Bruins AHL team. Also had 244 PIMs one year in the AHL.

I like the hire. I don't love it.

 

[rt]

Pro scouting is also projection. You have to account for a lot of the same factors, you just have the advantage of seeing that player play at the final level.

Armstrong was also an assistant coach (immediately after retiring) and head coach with the Bruins AHL team. Also had 244 PIMs one year in the AHL.

I like the hire. I don't love it.

Armstrong has some great fight videos out there too. Like Tocchet

I did a mega edit. Seems like we mostly agree.

Armstrong is a credible hire that doesn’t stink of bullshit. It seems merit based and as smart as anything else actual nhl teams that are normal tend to do. If Edmonton or Minnesota or New Jersey hired him, I wouldn’t have bat an eyelash. That’s about as good as we can hope for.

We didn’t do anything immediately apparently stupid. And that feels like a victory.

 

[KG]

I'm happy with the Armstrong hire. His credentials are as solid as they come without having been a GM before. He also has league wide credibility.

 

[XX]

I’m not mad we hired Armstrong. But I don’t feel great about it. No more than I would about Burke or Sullivan. The three are basically in the same zone for me.

Might end up with 2 or even all 3.

 

[rt]

Might end up with 2 or even all 3.

Then I’d feel very good about things.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

We didn’t do anything immediately apparently stupid. And that feels like a victory.

Baby Steps! HaHa

 

[KG]

I wonder also if Sullivan stays or goes with this hire.

 

[rt]

This franchise has been trash for most of its history.

Why?
1. Ownership/Arena
2. Drafting/Development

Maybe Armstrong is the guy who can finally get #2 sorted out for us?

 

[SR]

Anyone got a track record on Armstrong?

 

[Puck possession wins]

I can live with an Armstrong hire, as long as Goldberg and Hofford go.

Selfishly wanted Burke, for personal and fanbase reasons, but I can get why he wouldn't be hired. If we could bring him on and "slap" him with the title go AGM/GM of Tucson for a few years, he gets a GM job.

Like I've mentioned before, keeping Sullivan keeps the Chayka forward think methodology in place for the organization, along with having a guy in Armstrong who knows how to draft and develop NHL players ... unlike Hofford.

 

[Canis Latrans]

Assuming this is true and he accepts, if they are going to be going with a less proven individual for budgetary reasons, picking a new GM based on drafting acumen seems like the way to go. I'd rather come out ahead with wins out of the draft if it comes at the expense of contracts and trade negotiations. It'd make the rest of the job so much easier if you could keep falling back onto that kind of foundation.

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Interesting hire if confirmed.

Armstrong has had so many roles throughout his career:

- Player for 15 years (OHL, AHL, IHL)
- Assistant coach to Peter Laviolette on the Calder cup winning Providence Bruins (1999)
- Head coach for 2 years there (selected one time as an All Stars coach)
- Head coach to ECHL's Trenton Titans for 2 years
- Moved to amateur scouting for the Blues in 2004
- Became director of Amateur Scouting in 2010, replacing Jarmo Kekalainen
- Became Assistant GM in 2018 whilst retaining the role of director of amateur scouting.

At that time this is what Doug Armstrong said:

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Here are a couple of interviews during his director of Amateur Scouting time to have a bit of insight on how he approached drafts:

Meet Bill Armstrong
Draft Q&A with Bill Armstrong

A couple of recent articles (one by a fan site though, but gives perception) about where the Blues are at in regards to recent drafts and prospects:
https://thehockeywriters.com/blues-top-10-prospects-2020/
St. Louis Blues May Face A Blue Line Crisis In The Near Future

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It is obviously very hard to know if this is a good fit or not, but I understand the spirit and philosophy for this hire: to get a real, up and coming new GM with tons of hockey experience at lower roles. Someone respected, someone loyal. For the ownership, an excellent combo of upside, experience, at probably a cheaper price than proven GMs. Someone who should be able to find better yet cheaper talent, and build a roster with more tenacity/sand paper.

Armstrong knows inside out how important the drafts are; but he has also seen/ been somehow involved in major, successful, franchise changing trades, to get talent at the center position (O'Really, Schenn) - something the Coyotes have not been able to do for so many years.

At first look it does feel like a proper hockey/rational decision from the franchise. This in itself is a bit reassuring.

 

[rt]

Liked these responses:

Is it a big adjustment going from a scout to the boss?

I’ve got management experience. I think when you coach you learn to manage your staff and I’ve had my own personal business on the side where I’ve had 32 people working for me at times, so I think through all those things, you learn to manage people and to work with people. I think all those things I’ve done in life before I became the Director of Amateur Scouting has helped me. It’s been great.

The people you work with at this job, whether it be Larry Pleau or (scouts) Ville Siren and Dan Ginnell, and also (Director of Player Personel) Dave Taylor and (General Manager) Doug Armstrong, they’re all great people to work with. It’s been a great transition from being a scout to director.

Do you think your experience as a professional hockey player and coach helps you be better prepared to judge potential NHL talent?

It’s funny how it works. You wonder where all those little things that you're doing in your life, whether it be an assistant coach, a head coach or a GM in Trenton, NJ...All those little things that come back into play. I use all those different tools and skills that I’ve learned from those different jobs around hockey to do this one. It’s a very challenging job and I’m excited about it and it’s been a great year.

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Curious to see how the Coyotes and the Blues might resolve the fact that he is the director of Amateur Scouting for the Blues with the draft just a month away. Surely St Louis cannot be too enthused as the thought of him taking valuable intel with him?

 

[rt]

Curious to see how the Coyotes and the Blues might resolve the fact that he is the director of Amateur Scouting for the Blues with the draft just a month away. Surely St Louis cannot be too enthused as the thought of him taking valuable intel with him?

Historically in these situations they just sit out the draft. So expect Hofford/Sullivan to run this one and BA starting 2021.

 

[rt]

 

[rt]

Seems like there’s still a chance for it to go sideways with a lowball offer.

 

[lanky]

Seems like there’s still a chance for it to go sideways with a lowball offer.

He'd be crazy to turn down his first NHL GM job offer over salary. Stick to a short contract and renegotiate when he has some leverage.

 

[Jakey53]

There are only like 7 or 8 teams that use the Pres Hockey Ops and GM model. Too many cooks I'd guess.

We do need to fill out or hockey ops department for the people below Armstrong though. Hofford, Goldberg, and potentially but hopefully not Sullivan.

It's only a title.

 

[Mosby]

Armstrong's picks by league since becoming STL head scout in 2010:

13 - QMJHL
12 - WHL
10 - OHL
7 - Finland
6 - USHL
4 - NCAA
4 - KHL/Russia Jr
3 - Sweden
2 - Czech, Minn HS
1 - Denmark, Mass HS, Mich HS, OJHL, AJHL