GDT: BIG SHOWDOWN AT THE PNC: ARI @ CAR 7 PM

[bluedevil58]

Yeah, I’m not sure Aho at center is the way to go. Which of Staal, Lindholm, or Necas becomes a wing? Not to mention Walmark and Rask. I see our lineup next year as:

Aho - Necas - TT
Skinner - Lindy - Zykov
??? - Staal - Williams
McGinn - Rask - Foegele

Who will be the ??? Is uncertain. Do we get a talented UFA? Another rookie? I think it will be UFA so Dundon can put his stamp on the franchise, but they have to want to come here, so who knows.

Banking on our 1C being a dude that has never played a 20 game NHL stretch. 1st overall pick here we come with that line up.

 

[cptjeff]

I was responding to the notion that Peters' system doesn't generate quality shots, which is mostly untrue.

How much is the disparity between chance/shot generation and actual effect is on the system vs. on the players? I don't know. This is the third year now that the 'Canes have been great at getting shots, and generating High Danger Chances, but fail to turn that into goals scored- at least we can say it's not an outlier.

A problem with HDSC is that a traffic point shot or traffic board shot that generates a rebound to the general area where a Hurricane player resides is going to be called a HDSC the same way a wrister by Stamkos or Kucherov from the slot is a HDSC. The heat maps we saw, the Lightning take a ton of slot shots from the slow, the Hurricanes, almost none, most of their shots are from the point to the boards.

A "Peters player" would be a guy who can consistently turn the rebound above into goals, so big guys with good hands. The 'Canes have none of those at the moment. Zykov might turn into that, maybe Roy and Goat. Can the 'Canes turn that into a quality hockey team? Maybe.

(I'll also say that the coach who figures out how to turn chest seeking missiles into glove side high goals on a consistent basis for his hockey club will become the greatest coach in sporting history)

So shots that your stat says are high quality chances often aren't. The problem is not my analysis, it's that you're using data that does not tell you what it proports to tell you.

 

[Dishface]

Yeah, I’m not sure Aho at center is the way to go. Which of Staal, Lindholm, or Necas becomes a wing? Not to mention Walmark and Rask. I see our lineup next year as:

Aho - Necas - TT
Skinner - Lindy - Zykov
??? - Staal - Williams
McGinn - Rask - Foegele

Who will be the ??? Is uncertain. Do we get a talented UFA? Another rookie? I think it will be UFA so Dundon can put his stamp on the franchise, but they have to want to come here, so who knows.

Just switch Necas with Staal and that sounds very realistic unless we can trade away Rask and put wallmark there

 

[NotOpie]

We haven't been able to develop a top 6 center even though that's what Lindholm and Aho were sold to us as being when drafted.

To my recollection (and I'm getting older by the second, so that could be wrong) Aho was drafted as an RW, which is what he primarily played in Liiga play. He did slide over to center for Karpat due to injuries and in international play. But he was drafted as an RW and then surprised with his ability in the middle.

Lindholm ws drafted primarily as a center but had also played on the wing. He was forced onto the roster due to JR being a cheap bastard. The thought, until Bill Peters came was that he'd "get his sea legs" in the NHL on the wing and then transition to his more natural center position, at least that's my recollection.

 

[AD Skinner]

Wasn't Skinner also drafted as a C?

 

[cptjeff]

Wasn't Skinner also drafted as a C?

Yes, but I think the clear expectation was that he would move to wing as a pro.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

That's what I don't see with this team. The ability to get in center ice, between the dots for scoring chances which is the prime scoring area.

I agree with this. I'll agree it's coached too- so the question becomes, if Peters ran the offense like Toronto or Tampa Bay, would they be better than they are now?

Maybe?

One issue, off the top of my head, is that the Hurricanes almost don't have a guy sitting in the middle of the ice waiting to receive a pass as often as other teams- and if they do, the low hockey IQ winger won't see him (Williams missing Lindholm and McGinn doing the above multiple times against Edmonton, for example- I can't imagine that this is a coaching issue). The center of the ice is the farthest away from the boards, and the 'Canes wingers are average to weak on the boards- so the idea being, they can't afford to have a guy basically take himself out of the play on the boards for a scoring opportunity. And if it did, so what? Rask is one thing, I think he could score 30 in Tampa or Toronto just waiting for the pass in the slot, but Staal or Ryan? Why bother?

A second issue is that the Hurricanes almost never attempt , and thus, convert, on a major redirect from the dead slot on an extreme angle, by which I mean pointman is aiming for the corner board and hoping a guy in the slot will redirect it 45 degrees. It seems to me the focus is for the shot to be on net, with the redirect out in front and a guy (ostensibly) waiting to bang in the rebound.

(The main difference between the 'Canes and the Leafs and Bolts goes without saying)

Per Naturalstattrick, the Canes have a HDCF/60 that is 5th best in the NHL and Toronto's is 9th, so that measure would say the Canes are better. I look at these two charts and see the exact opposite. Almost all of the Leafs shots are in the prime scoring areas. The Canes are really close to the goalie (which isn't always prime scoring) or off to the side, but there's a complete empty in the slot, which is the prime scoring area.

C'mon BBA. You can't call shots in the slot prime scoring opportunities while hedging that shots 3 feet from the net aren't "always" prime scoring.

So shots that your stat says are high quality chances often aren't.

I'm interested to see if there's data suggesting that slot shots are *significantly* better than what the 'Canes under Peters are producing.

(Now, if you want to say that Peters' system isn't conductive, like, at all, to getting shots from the slot? Sure, but we can parse over whether that's the only valuable shot to take)

I mean, a Stamkos/Matthews/Nylander/Kucherov slot shot? Yeah, but the 'Canes don't have that kind of player, AINEC.

Yes, but I think the clear expectation was that he would move to wing as a pro.

I mean, he was drafted and broke into the League when one of the Hurricanes' many problems was a 2nd line center behind Staal ("not since Matt Cullen left...."). I don't think it's a coincidence that Skinner-to-center died around the time the 'Canes acquired Jordan, and I don't think it's a coincidence that Aho-to-center is an issue now that the 'Canes have an even worse center problem.

 

[MinJaBen]

Just switch Necas with Staal and that sounds very realistic unless we can trade away Rask and put wallmark there

Knowing Peters, I’m sure that would happen a lot during the season. I’m thinking that the lines I made are more end of the season lines as Necas grows into the position. But having his speed and playmaking ability on the same line as Aho and TT could be lethal.