Better team outside of the big two: Leafs vs. Oilers

Better team outside of the big two: Leafs vs. Oilers


  • Total voters
    182

syz

[1, 5, 6, 14]
Jul 13, 2007
29,679
13,988
Hyman can drive a line better than Tavares this season. Nylander is easily the best player outside of them all and Rielly is probably better than any defenseman on Edmonton at his best. Overall their supporting casts are really quite close.
Ekholm > Rielly > Bouchard and then the rest of them all kinda suck.
 
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Buck Naked

Can't-Stand-Ya
Aug 18, 2016
3,833
5,883
Ekholm isn’t better than Rielly

Rielly is so overrated.

Mattias Ekholm 5v5 since joining the Oilers:
61GF, 39GA (61 GF%)
61.51xGF%
21 points
Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice: 55 GF%, 53.19 xGF%

Morgan Rielly 5v5 in the same span:
59GF, 56GA (51.30 GF%)
48.39xGF%
22 points
Without Matthews or Marner on the ice: 43.93 GF%, 47.64 xGF%
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,030
117,002
NYC
The Oilers have led the NHL in xGF% the entire year, so that's who I have to go with.

I mean, yeah, McDavid helps that HUGELY, but Draisaitl honestly doesn't, and let's not open that can. So, yeah, I'm going with that team.
 

The Nuge

Some say…
Jan 26, 2011
27,470
7,626
British Columbia
It's funny how the Oiler haters cling so desperately to this narrative, when every measurable stat states the Oilers are a top 10 defensive team in the NHL.

but I guess the haters need something to cling to to help them sleep at night.

Why judge a team for their current makeup when you could judge them based on the players who were there a decade ago?
 

ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,716
29,461
Edmonton
Oilers have better defense and better goaltending.

Nylander is the best forward not named Matthews, Marner, McDavid or Draisaitl but overall edge to Edmonton.
 

ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,716
29,461
Edmonton
The Oilers have led the NHL in xGF% the entire year, so that's who I have to go with.

I mean, yeah, McDavid helps that HUGELY, but Draisaitl honestly doesn't, and let's not open that can. So, yeah, I'm going with that team.
He does this year. His two way game has come along this year.

55.57 XGF% away from McDavid, and his most common non-McDavid linemate is Evander Kane.

It's funny how the Oiler haters cling so desperately to this narrative, when every measurable stat states the Oilers are a top 10 defensive team in the NHL.

but I guess the haters need something to cling to to help them sleep at night.
particularly since by the numbers Edmonton arguably has the best top pairing and bottom pairing in the NHL.

The 2nd pairing is meh, but the other two pairings make up for it.
 
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Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,030
117,002
NYC
He does this year. His two way game has come along this year.

55.57 XGF% away from McDavid, and his most common non-McDavid linemate is Evander Kane.
That's actually below what the Oilers pull as a team!

He certainly has his strengths and it's fine if not everyone is the main analytics driver. I only mention it because, in the context of this thread, I don't want somebody to reply "well, they're good at analytics because of the two guys."

Like, not really. They're a good team.
 
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ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,716
29,461
Edmonton
That's actually below what the Oilers pull as a team!

He certainly has his strengths and it's fine if not everyone is the main analytics driver. I only mention it because, in the context of this thread, I don't want somebody to reply "well, they're good at analytics because of the two guys."

Like, not really. They're a good team.
That's because the McDavid line and the McLeod line are analytics monsters (and Draisaitl, by and large, gets stuck playing with the Nurse-Ceci pairing a lot. Away from them he's 61% XGF%)

Very much so, the Oilers are a legitimate Cup threat. The problem is, there's about six legitimate Cup threats in the West this year and getting out of the conference will be an absolute murderer's row. I could see any of Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado, Vegas, Edmonton, or Vancouver taking it, and the crazy part is at least two of those teams will be out in the first round.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,030
117,002
NYC
That's because the McDavid line and the McLeod line are analytics monsters (and Draisaitl, by and large, gets stuck playing with the Nurse-Ceci pairing a lot. Away from them he's 61% XGF%)

Very much so, the Oilers are a legitimate Cup threat. The problem is, there's about six legitimate Cup threats in the West this year and getting out of the conference will be an absolute murderer's row. I could see any of Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado, Vegas, Edmonton, or Vancouver taking it, and the crazy part is at least two of those teams will be out in the first round.
Meanwhile, the East is kind of a trash fire.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,903
23,895
New York
That's because the McDavid line and the McLeod line are analytics monsters (and Draisaitl, by and large, gets stuck playing with the Nurse-Ceci pairing a lot. Away from them he's 61% XGF%)

Very much so, the Oilers are a legitimate Cup threat. The problem is, there's about six legitimate Cup threats in the West this year and getting out of the conference will be an absolute murderer's row. I could see any of Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado, Vegas, Edmonton, or Vancouver taking it, and the crazy part is at least two of those teams will be out in the first round.
I don’t see it with Winnipeg. They’ll go out early as they usually do. Hellebuyck will have to go off and win them a lot of low scoring games. They don’t have the scoring of some of the other best teams.

Colorado is another team I wouldn’t trust for a second. They have bad goaltending.

Vancouver could have a great run, but their nature as a franchise is so Jekyll/Hyde. For that reason I don’t trust them.

Edmonton, Vegas, Dallas the favorites. Outside chance for Vancouver.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,970
11,035
That's actually below what the Oilers pull as a team!

He certainly has his strengths and it's fine if not everyone is the main analytics driver. I only mention it because, in the context of this thread, I don't want somebody to reply "well, they're good at analytics because of the two guys."

Like, not really. They're a good team.

That’s why I don’t buy that Ekholm > Rielly because of these stats. I’ve seen both at their best and give me Rielly every time, he will bring close to the same defense with a noticeable gap offensively.
 

ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,716
29,461
Edmonton
I don’t see it with Winnipeg. They’ll go out early as they usually do. Hellebuyck will have to go off and win them a lot of low scoring games. They don’t have the scoring of some of the other best teams.

Colorado is another team I wouldn’t trust for a second. They have bad goaltending.

Vancouver could have a great run, but their nature as a franchise is so Jekyll/Hyde. For that reason I don’t trust them.

Edmonton, Vegas, Dallas the favorites. Outside chance for Vancouver.
Trust me when I say that Hellebuyck can win a series just about by himself. He stonewalled us in 20-21. If he's on top of his game the Jets are for real.

I get Colorado, but they've already won a Cup with C+ goaltending. They're not as good as that team, but they could still pull it off.

I hate the Canucks so i hope you're right there.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,884
9,827
Montreal, Canada
McDavid vs Matthews
Draisaitl vs Marner
Hyman vs Nylander
RNH vs Tavares
Kane vs Domi
Foegele vs Bertuzzi

Bouchard vs Rielly
Ekholm vs McCabe
Nurse vs Brodie

I mean, on paper it's AINEC
 
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Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
25,216
14,657
Vancouver
That’s why I don’t buy that Ekholm > Rielly because of these stats. I’ve seen both at their best and give me Rielly every time, he will bring close to the same defense with a noticeable gap offensively.

Rielly has never not had poor defensive stats despite being on a good team since 16-17. I don’t think he’s very close defensively
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,903
23,895
New York
Trust me when I say that Hellebuyck can win a series just about by himself. He stonewalled us in 20-21. If he's on top of his game the Jets are for real.

I get Colorado, but they've already won a Cup with C+ goaltending. They're not as good as that team, but they could still pull it off.

I hate the Canucks so i hope you're right there.
I think Hellebuyck and their defensive system can win them a series. They’re currently slated to play Colorado. I can see how they win that with Colorado carrying play, being frustrated offensively and Winnipeg scoring just enough against Colorado’s goaltending. But that strategy is very tough to sustain for 16 wins.
 

Juxta Position

Registered User
Jul 2, 2006
2,209
1,619
That’s why I don’t buy that Ekholm > Rielly because of these stats. I’ve seen both at their best and give me Rielly every time, he will bring close to the same defense with a noticeable gap offensively.
this is not rooted in anything other than Leaf bias. Reilly has proven for his entire career to be a mediocre to bad defensive defensman. Eckholm on the other hand has proven the opposite.

you can have your opinion obviously, but an opinion is not a fact, and the great thing about facts are that they are true whether you believe them or not.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,970
11,035
Rielly has never not had poor defensive stats despite being on a good team since 16-17. I don’t think he’s very close defensively

Yet in the playoffs he plays very good nearly every single time, contrary to what some may think despite the Leafs lack of success. Like I said based on what I’ve seen from both at their best give me Rielly, I’m not convinced Ekholm would have the same two-way impact.
 

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