Better contract? Stutzle or Suzuki?

[GrandmaCookie]

Caufield and Slafkovsky aren't proper linemates?

He's nowhere close to a Selke level forward lol. Over the last 3 years, he has the worst +/- on the team. Hard to argue he's having a very positive effect relative to the rest of the team, even with them being so bad.

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Slaf joined that line in early November

What about my argument suggests that was my position?

Neither shooting percentages are sustainable. But Stutzle paced for 95 points during his high sh% season, while Suzuki is in pace for 79.


I think it's pretty likely that Stutzle still has his best seasons ahead of him. Most young centers don't peak at 20/21.

That must be the worst argument you could bring to the table to downplay Suzuki defensive game lmao. It just means he plays against the toughest opposition.

2023-24 Selke Trophy Tracker: March Update

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Here is an interesting article written last week about the Selke candidate this season, Suzuki being in the top candidate (might be pushing it), here is some stats:

"his defensive performance has been terrific. His even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 4.8, ranked 11th among all forwards. His overall defensive game has also been worth an xGAR of 5.6, so he’s been quite valuable defensively.

Suzuki has played tough minutes, logging 42.8 percent of his ice time against elite competition. On a Montreal Canadiens team that’s been leaky defensively this season, he’s been one of their best shot suppressors, averaging 2.53 expected goals against per 60 minutes. "

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Stutzle

 

[Essenege]

Do you think Suzuki's 5v5 linemates are holding him back?

Caufiel 5v5 S% is below 5%. Quite below his expected goals while with his shooting quality he should be reliably above.

 

[Strangle]

Thanks for the entertainment today, Leafs have been one of the softest teams since Matthews joined.
Senators first in hits since Matthew’s joined.
Leafs 25th.
Probably time to stop with the hyperbole.

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It’s not the first season, it’s the first ‘team’ that lead fans have had to watch that’s soft. Yes, that’s when Matthews and Marner and nylander, etc joined the team. The team changed to a soft as baby shit team

The sens have been soft for 30 years, or however long they’ve been in the league

And don’t mention hits as a ‘toughness’ stat, that’s not how they’re recorded by the league. Number of hits means less than nothing, the league doesn’t know what a body check is

Toronto has the dubious record of never playing 4 rounds of playoff hockey in their entire history.

Wake me up when that happens and maybe I'll take your lecture seriously.

Ottawa played the Bruins in the 1st round in 2017 and won. So it's not some kind of impossible task.

It doesn’t matter, you’ll continue to make shit up to complain about.

Your team is f***ing shit, an embarrassment. Worry about them, leafs are doing fine

 

[Fantomas]

Stutzle is obvously better. Having a down year, but we'll be roaring back.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

I came here not thinking this was going to be a debate. I’m taking Stutzle 10/10 times.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

I came here not thinking this was going to be a debate. I’m taking Stutzle 10/10 times.

Congratulations

 

[Talik Sanis]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Top 3-5 Selke, funny stuff,
who was the last defenseman to win the Selke, friend was asking.

What are you talking about? Suzuki is not a defensemen. Lol

 

[Michoulicious]

Stutzle because Dom in the Athletic told me Suzuki has one of the worst contracts in the league.

If his model says so, it means it must be true... Right?

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Do you think Suzuki's 5v5 linemates are holding him back?

I don't see a 90 point player in Suzuki. Even with a 18.5% shooting percentage, he's still only on pace for 78 points. He's just not a productive enough player at 5v5.

View attachment 843133

These are his 82 game paces at 5v5 for each year of his career:

• 8g 25p
• 13g 34p
• 9g 34p
• 14g 41p
• 17g 35p

It's really hard to score even 85 points with only 35-40 5v5 points. Of the 22 guys who scored 85+ points last year, only 2 had less than 45 5v5 points (Zibanejad and RNH), and they were both on two of the most lethal PP1 units in the league.

For Suzuki to reach 90 points, the Habs PP is going to have an incredible season, or something fundamental about his 5v5 play will need to change.


Stutzle already has a 90 point season (95 point pace), and he did that as a 20/21 year old. Barring injury, I think it's extremely likely that he does it again.

Rel xGF% over the last 3 seasons:

Stutzle: 2.70
Suzuki: 0.77

This is the first year in the last 3 where Suzuki has had better possession metrics. And Stutzle is 2.5 years younger.

Stutzle is a bargain. This is the first season where Suzuki is really earning his contract. Hopefully he can continue, but I don't think it's ever going to look like a huge discount.

Yes, is that a serious question ?

Stats are fine and dandy, but you forget that Suzuki never played with a #1 winger, let alone 2, it's not fair to compare him to Stutzle, who plays with Giroux and Tkachuk. What Suzuki is doing, is remarkable, in that context.

Caufield is snake bitten and Slafkovsky is finding his gear, once they develop, Suzuki will naturally get more points. If we can add a #1D, who's able to make good passes on a regular basis, watch out.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Don't think either is all that great. They're both paid appropriately.

 

[Cenzo_]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

Mediocre second line center? I know Montreal had to live with terrible centers for decades so maybe you just don’t know what a great center looks like.

David Desharnais is a mediocre second line center.

If you are going to call Suzuki a second line center (which he isn’t) he’s an elite one!

 

[Sombastate]

Gotta be Stutzle. His down year is almost as good as Suzuki's best year, and he's two years younger.

And Suzuki is a f***ing stud player. This isn't an insult to him. I'd do unforgivable things to have either on the Flyers.

 

[LivingRentFree]

As a Leafs fan that watches a lot of both of the teams in question, Suzuki is the better player and contract.

 

[Andrei79]

Suzuki is currently having his career season at 24.

I don't see why it's a stretch to believe that Stutzle didn't peak at 21 years old.

Again, the age difference between Suzuki and Stutzle is roughly the same as between Stutzle and Slafkovsky. It's not insignificant.

Great, great point about the age.

At Stutzles age, Suzuki outplayed every center he met in the playoffs until Brayden Point, in the Stanley Cup finals.

But hey, small sample size during a short insignificant tourney.

 

[Andrei79]

This screams Karlsson vs Subban all over again and we know how that went.

Subban went on to lead his teams to two conference finals and a cup finals ?

 

[NyQuil]

Subban went on to lead his teams to two conference finals and a cup finals ?

"Lead"

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

I don't know you, but you sound like a Suzuki hater, pretty sure, if I dig a bit, I will find you whining about his contract.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

Montral fan? or nordiques fan who has yet to move on 30 years after they left? The latter obviously. I know a lot of "montreal fans" who does nothing but shit on them like your pathetic ass.

 

[Zalos]

Montreal fan saying Stutzle, and it's not even close. This is literally the difference between a game-breaking first line center having an off year and a mediocre second line center having a career one.

This has to be a troll post.

I would say Stutzle and Suzuki are about the same value. Stutzle is better offensively, but Suzuki is quickly becoming a really good two-way center like Bergeron, Kopitar, etc.

I expect Suzuki to be a 1PPG player for the next ten years and win one Selke at some point. Meanwhile, Stutzle will be a 90+ pts player on average and will be the Sens' best scorer for the foreseeable future.

I dunno why these threads always have to turn into bashing one player over the other.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And don’t mention hits as a ‘toughness’ stat, that’s not how they’re recorded by the league. Number of hits means less than nothing, the league doesn’t know what a body check is

Hits actually mean something, no matter if you want to deny it, funny story though.
Just because Sens were first, it’s a nothing stat for you, keep up the good fight buddy, it’s entertainment.

I suppose you weren’t aware the league just did a huge back review into hits, and modified the numbers for players, went back years.

 

[Just Linda]

Yeah, and he paced for 95 points as a 20-21 year old.

Suzuki is pacing for 78 as a 24 year old (with an even higher shooting percentage).

Even in a down year, Stutzle has 43 5v5 points vs Suzuki's 30.

These two players aren't comparable.

Stutzle has 15 more secondary assists, the difference in their production 5 on 5 is the difference in linemates. 5 on 5, he's got 10 more even strength, secondary assists than Suzuki. Stutzle is 7th in the league on EV 5-on-5 secondary assists this year, he was just outside of the top 10 in PP secondary assists last year.

No way around it, Stutzle's production is benefitted from linemates far more than Suzuki's.

Context is important with numbers

 

[Golden_Jet]

Stutzle is 7th in the league on EV 5-on-5 goals this year, he was just outside of the top 10 in PP secondary assists last year.

Ya we know he’s better than Suzuki, thanks for pointing it out.