Kershaw
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Larsson, Hamilton, Murphy, Brodin, Klefbom, Morrow, Harrington, any one of these guys can be the best.
- Thats your opinion and what you are getting from the games and thats perfectly fine. You are entitled to your opinions. IMO, although he doesn't have a deadly shot or like to pinch into the offensive zone, I think he is just so slick and smart that on the right team, he can put up 30-40 points regulary.
- While I accept your argument above, this argument is just stupid. You lost all credibility with that remark to me... Should I go after the "well ... X was drafted 20nd-30th overall"? I think I should. Jordan Eberle (22nd), Claude Giroux (22nd), Mike Green (29nd). Draft position means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING when it comes to players. While I understand the reference to Lidstrom might be a tad much, how about reference to Kenny Jonsson? He has been compared to him as well and from what I can tell, seems to be a clone of him.
If draft position means's nothing then why do players go where they do instead of teams picking players out of a hat?
Those players you named developed significantly after and weren't exactly safe picks. No one could have anticipated what they would have done, not 10 months after they were drafted at least. If Brodin was thought to have "very elite level potential", he wouldn't have been considered a safe pick at number 10, he would have been considered a steal and we would have seen talk of him going much higher.
And Kenny Jonsson was a #2 defensemen in the NHL, who put up around 30 points on average. If Brodin is a clone of him I hit the nail pretty much right on the head.
Compared to other defensemen from that draft, Brodin just doesn't stack up potential wise.
Way too early but the front runners seem to be Larsson Hamilton and Brodin.
Now you're taking one part of what I'm saying and ignoring the other part. I'm not saying its all about draft position which you seem to think I am. Brodin went 10th, was never considered to go any higher than that, was considered a safe pick. Hamilton had top 5 consideration. Murphy had top 5 consideration. That's what seperates them, and I've said that.
And you're right this isn't about Brodin anymore, you're ranting about me apparently saying something that I didn't even say. I never said Brodin isn't better because of draft position, I said if he had "very elite potential" he would have been considered a better prospect draft day than he was.
And don't give me that ******** of bringing up that he wasn't seen enough or scouted well enough. A first round talent playing in a top league is scouted plenty, if he had elite potential we would have known about it. Eberle, Giroux ect the guys mentioned, very talented, but no one could have expected them because no one is expected to perfectly fill out their complete potential.
Please tell me where I said he wasn't scouted enough. I did say there is more to developing players than drafting them and I did say there are alot of factors that play into that develop AFTER being drafted. However, I did not say he wasn't scouted enough.
Reason why I am ranting is because of the way you are using draft position to justify that he does not elite potential or not. And I do apologize if I come off ... crazy ...
I will agree, I don't think he has Lidstrom potential. And I will agree, his ability to run the offense is somewhat lacking. And if you said that because you read reports and saw him play, I like that argument.
What I do not like, is saying "if he was elite, he would be drafted higher" because that is disregarding the extra 2-4 years he has to develop AFTER being drafted.
Reason why I have this 'ranting' aggressiveness to my argument is because I think that is simply not true, using draft position because in 2 years, that part of his game could develop drastically, like those players you mentioned at 20-30th that you said "No one could have anticipated what they would have done, not 10 months after they were drafted at least."
There are just so many instances of players developing at a rate that "no one could have anticipated what they would have done" that maybe the idea of 'projecting' players is more art than science, alot of hoping and praying goes into those years of development. Scouting gives you a basis of the type of player you are getting, but no one besides a fortune teller can tell you how they well develop. All you can do is draft a player who is in the right situation with the right tools and surrounded by the right people.
EDIT: To clarify, I am not just talking about risky players with projected elite upside but risky to make it. I am also regarding players who were projected to be 'safe' but become more than just that
Now you're taking one part of what I'm saying and ignoring the other part. I'm not saying its all about draft position which you seem to think I am. Brodin went 10th, was never considered to go any higher than that, was considered a safe pick. Hamilton had top 5 consideration. Murphy had top 5 consideration. That's what seperates them, and I've said that.
And you're right this isn't about Brodin anymore, you're ranting about me apparently saying something that I didn't even say. I never said Brodin isn't better because of draft position, I said if he had "very elite potential" he would have been considered a better prospect draft day than he was.
And don't give me that ******** of bringing up that he wasn't seen enough or scouted well enough. A first round talent playing in a top league is scouted plenty, if he had elite potential we would have known about it. Eberle, Giroux ect the guys mentioned, very talented, but no one could have expected them because no one is expected to perfectly fill out their complete potential.
i've seen various people implement this type of thinking, and it is fundamentally flawed.
Firstly, you are merely speculating, because you have no idea where nhl teams had each player ranked at the draft. It's plausible that various teams had brodin in their top 5.
Secondly, the idea that being prevously ranked in the top 5 means they have greater upside because seems entirely contradictory. How can a player be deemed to have more upside, yet such player falls in the rankings? Why does he fall in the rankings? Rankings are somewhat flawed anyway, but usually remain fluid and ever changing because player development is not linear, and can be random.
So brodin gets drafted higher, but you deem another player to have higher upside based on a speculated ranking that occurred before either were drafted. Do you not see how this is contradictory? You are using draft rankings to attempt to prove a point, whilst actually ignoring the draft results ... The very thing the draft rankings exist to attempt to predict. It's a bizarre way of thinking.
well, you did say it. Of course, we can merely use this strange logic to prove you wrong.
If murphy had elite potential, he would have been considered a better prospect draft day than he was.
Of course you won't agree with this, but i am using the same basic logic you used. So if you do not agree with this, you again undermine and contradict the argument you attempt validify.
the latter half of this is actually quite important. Percieved potential changes as players develop. Hence, draft rankings from years back become less and less meaningful, and what they are doing now becomes more and more relevant. So, how players were ranked at the draft or during their draft year becomes somewhat redundant, because it has no relevance to how a player develops. Drafts are ways of acquiring assets. People need top stop using them as the main measurements of potential, because players do not stop developing at 17/18.
If you feel brodin doesn't have elite upside based on viewings, that seems a reasonable belief. However, nothing you've said after is remotely logical.
I've seen various people implement this type of thinking, and it is fundamentally flawed.
Firstly, you are merely speculating, because you have no idea where NHL teams had each player ranked at the draft. It's plausible that various teams had Brodin in their Top 5.
It's not flawed, every arguement against it is attempting to use semantics against it and not actually any arguement. You take one thing I say and twist it so you can argue against it. That's what's flawed.
You can say anything is speculation. You could say every team had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as number one on their draft board, it's very likely, but it's still speculation. I can say it's very likely no team had Brodin top five and only a handful had him top 10. I could care less it's speculation, using what information we have avaiable to us, it's very likely. All the reports on Brodin were he's a safe pick, will be an NHL'er.
To expand on that, while teams don't ever actually reveal their draft boards, the rumor is that New Jersey had Brodin as #2 on their draft board behind Larsson (well the actual phrasing: "if Larsson was off the board, Brodin would have been the pick"). In addition to that, while the Wild picked Brodin at 10th overall, they had him ranked in the top 5, and considered trading up to ensure they got him. The exact quote (from the draft table as seen on Becoming Wild) was:
[Unknown speaker]: "He says Boston's putting 'Hamilton' on a jersey, so that's who they're picking."
Flahr: "Then we get one of our two guys."
Fletcher: "And that's why you don't trade up here, we got him anyway."
Nope. You're 100% wrong, and provably so. There's no point in arguing it with you though because your only response ever is "you're twisting my words" or some other vain attempt at yet another strawman.
Exactly.
I'd also like to challenge what upside means? It seems people assume upside means point projection, and thus rank accordingly. Of course, i find rankings somewhat pointless and would rather see a grouping based on player type (So, say, these players project to be Top Pairing etc). Upside isn't just offensive point totals. Brodin may score 20 less points, but he may also exceptional defensively, something which is harder to rank statistical. That Defensive contribution can be far far more important than those extra points.
Oleksiak has become pretty overrated around here. I took him in a fantasy pool I did last year, and I have to say he's been very dissappointing.
The guy is much more likely to be a Boris Valabik then a Myers, IMO he's going to end up being a 5-6 type guy, nothing more.
My Top 10 right now:
Larsson
Murray
Murphy
Morrow
Siemens
Klefbom
Brodin
Percy
Beaulieau
Sproul
Oleksiak has become pretty overrated around here. I took him in a fantasy pool I did last year, and I have to say he's been very dissappointing.
The guy is much more likely to be a Boris Valabik then a Myers, IMO he's going to end up being a 5-6 type guy, nothing more.
My Top 10 right now:
Larsson
Murray
Murphy
Morrow
Siemens
Klefbom
Brodin
Percy
Beaulieau
Sproul
It's not flawed, every arguement against it is attempting to use semantics against it and not actually any arguement. You take one thing I say and twist it so you can argue against it. That's what's flawed.
You can say anything is speculation. You could say every team had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as number one on their draft board, it's very likely, but it's still speculation. I can say it's very likely no team had Brodin top five and only a handful had him top 10. I could care less it's speculation, using what information we have avaiable to us, it's very likely. All the reports on Brodin were he's a safe pick, will be an NHL'er.
You're acting like we don't know a single thing about the players drafted last year, that they're a mystery to all but the NHL teams and we can't say anything about them because we're not NHL teams. That's simply silly.
I don't have a clue what you're talking about with regards to the third thing you said. You seem to be thinking I'm reffering to some magic speculatory ranking to determine potential and I'm wondering where the in the world you pulled that from.
I'm not using draft rankings for anything. This is where reading would a beneficial thing. I said if Brodin had "very elite potential" he would have been more highly regarded during the time surrounding the draft and he would have gotten consideration to be taken higher than he did. Brodin during that time, by most sources was considered a safe pick without the same potential guys like Larsson, Hamilton, and Murphy had. That's not speculation, that's well known. Brodin hasn't suddenly gone from being a safe pick to being some guy who's Lidstrom-in-waiting.
It's been a 10 months since Brodin was drafted. He hasn't developed to a significant level that he's gone from safe pick, 25-30 point defensemen with strong defense to an very elite potential defensemen.
And how many times do I have to say I wasn't talking about draft rankings, I was talking about how Brodin was percieved around draft time. No one percieved Brodin to have elite potential then, and beside one poster in this thread I haven't seen anyone else say that now. Maybe in 3-4 years you can make a different judgement, but what was said about him during and leaeding up to the 2011 draft still holds weight now, and nobody then, or now has said he had elite potential, and if he did, he would have been thought of more than just a safe pick.
Yeah here in Dallas we're super disappointed in Oleksiak we expected him to make our team last year and contribute 30-40 points in his rookie year. Safe to say he didn't achieve these unlofty goals