Best and Worst of the 2009 Draft

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

VERY NICELY SAID MS REALLY !

By the way I just wanted to drop this off here :

Mark Seidel (North American Central Scouting Service's chief scout) said the Leafs were the big winners at the draft. He gave them an A+ rating.

 

[SK13]

My own agenda ? Now that's plain looney. The Oilers are probably my 2nd or 3rd favourite team.

I'm just saying that I agree with an earlier posters' thinking:

He showed a draft from 5 years ago, where all these players that dropped in the draft were declared "steals". Then he mentioned no-names that were drafted ahead of their rankings and how everyone said "who" ?

His point was, that in hindsight, the so-called steals that dropped and were declared "steals" usually end up as the busts. And the no-names that were drafted early usually end up as the steals. For example, Silfverberg will probably end up twice the player as Ladner. Murray is known as a good drafter with excellent scouts. Last year nobody knew who our 2nd rounder, Wiercioch, was, and now his stock has risen a lot. I bet Vancouver wishes they chose the unknown Wiercioch (who's from Van ironically), instead of Yann Sauve, the ranked 1st rounder who dropped.

You are correct, I am not a scout, just as you aren't, congratulations for being so perceptive.

I'm just projecting all the Oilers' "steals" as likely to bust, just as players in similar situations in past years normally end up.

NHL teams with good scouting often draft surprising no-names, because THE BEST SCOUTS WORK FOR THEM, and are better than people making up lists for ISS, CSB, HFBoard fans, etc. That's why I'm concerned with the Oilers: it appears that they don't have any deep thinking scouts who go off the board a little bit, like all teams that draft well do. They picked a player who dropped each time, just like someone picking from the ISS or HFBoards list would. If they had 1 of these guys it wouldn't be a red flag, but they took droppers in practically every round.

Despite their bad draft, Go Oilers !

Hopefully next year, Tambellini hires some decent scouts.


I am however, devastated and upset that the Oilers don't value my opinion on their draft. It was cruel of you to mention that.

Oh God, you are actually using selective examples of failed droppers to prop up an even more selective argument for why the Oilers "failed" at this years Draft?

Parise fell. Kopitar fell. Sykora fell.

It's risk/reward. Is there any guarantee that Rajala will ever play a minute of North American hockey, let alone as a high end player in the NHL? No.

The whole point was having the balls to take a flier on the guy who has the potential to instead of a guy who tops out as a third liner or fringe second liner because you think they might have a better shot at playing.

 

[zenator]

Look, many teams take a player who dropped. Like Parise. And many end up proving the scouts wrong.

This year's guy (other players will do this but I'm giving 1 guy), in my opinion, will be Jordan Schroeder: I don't see him as a superstar, but he will produce enough to show that he should have been picked 10-15.

It's unusual for a team (Oilers) to take SO MANY players that fell so far. It just looks funny.

And if you Oiler fans get soooo upset with someone (me: I actually like the Oilers) who doesn't like your team's draft, then ignore me, or find a new hobby. Because you will read all sorts of opinions you don't agree with on the interweb.

Gawd, just disagree with me, tell me why you like these players, but don't whine or get upset with the big meanie who criticizes your team.

 

[AF1982]

Oh God, you are actually using selective examples of failed droppers to prop up an even more selective argument for why the Oilers "failed" at this years Draft?

Parise fell. Kopitar fell. Sykora fell.

It's risk/reward. Is there any guarantee that Rajala will ever play a minute of North American hockey, let alone as a high end player in the NHL? No.

The whole point was having the balls to take a flier on the guy who has the potential to instead of a guy who tops out as a third liner or fringe second liner because you think they might have a better shot at playing.

Edmonton took a couple of high risk/ reward of type of players. Is that reason enough to label the Oilers as one of the best in 2009? I don't think so. You may talk about Rajala and Roy as steal while relatively unknown players like Hesketh, Abney or Bigos make it to the NHL.

 

[SK13]

Gawd, just disagree with me, tell me why you like these players, but don't whine or get upset with the big meanie who criticizes your team.

So let me get this straight:

You post something on a message board, we tell you why we disagree with reason and legitimate discussion, and you get condescending and defensive because.... we're being defensive?

Right...

 

[SK13]

Edmonton took a couple of high risk/ reward of type of players. Is that reason enough to label the Oilers as one of the best in 2009? I don't think so. You may talk about Rajala and Roy as steal while relatively unknown players like Hesketh, Abney or Bigos make it to the NHL.

Yes, but that's missing the entire point or else disqualifying the entire point of these discussions in the first place.

 

[zenator]

Hopefully, I'm wrong, and some of your players turn out, because I want the Oilers to do well. Go Oilers !

 

[Whitesnake]

Not in a particular order, but teams that I liked on draft day:

Anaheim: 5 first picks could be dyamite for them. Didn't expect Vatanen to go as far as he did.
Atlanta: Solid picks at the beginning, I am not a Bubnick fan but at round 6, it's a pretty good guess. And Koper in the 7th is also a fine educated guess.
Colorado: Just for the first 3 who should be surefire NHL'ers. And you never know what Maxwell will be able to give you.
Detroit: I thought that Nick Jensen would potentially be a steal. With the Wings, I'm sure of it. I'm just baffled by the Fournier pick though. They had much better choices at that rank. But Ferraro and Tatar in round 2. Congrats. Ferraro alone, with the Wings, will make other teams wonder why they didn't pick him.
Edmonton: Roy and Rajala that far. Sure, there are concerns. But the pure talent is still there. But we all know that pure talent might not always be enough. We'll see. And I'm not talking about MPS and Lander. And I really like Bigos as well.
Tampa: Solid Tampa. Hedman, Ashton. And then if Panik finds consistency and if Hutchings can build up some strength. Add this Tim Thomas clone in Janus as in all over the place but get the job done, and you might have a great draft.

I can't put that team as a whole in the great drafts but just for Roussel, Nashville was great. Roussel will prove to everybody that he should have been top 20. As far as the Rangers are concerned, I have to congratule them in picking Werek at 47.

 

[OilerOlli*]

I liked Edmonton, Ottawa, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Colorado, Nashville.
Toronto, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, San Jose not so much.
But we will see in a few years.

 

[taunting canadian]

Hopefully, I'm wrong, and some of your players turn out, because I want the Oilers to do well. Go Oilers !

The thing that some people have been trying to point out to you is that the Oilers draft does not consist of nothing but "fallers". Their 1st, one of their 4th, and their 5th are fallers. Their 2nd is a guy picked somewhat above his consensus ranking. Both 3rds, and one of their 4th, are "risers"/late bloomers/off the board picks.

If you don't like fallers, so be it. But if you then look at the Oilers draft and proclaim it to be a failure, even though only 3 out of 7 picks fall into that category, that doesn't make any sense. Why ignore the "no name" picks that you like so much, and proclaim the draft to be a bad draft? If you love "no name" picks, why wouldn't you like the Oilers draft for the fact that they made several such picks?

 

[DungeonK]

Dude, Angelo Esposito was clearly the "steal" of the 2007 draft.

Let him play in the NHL first? And why hate him just because your team traded him away?

 

[McDeepika]

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

Ya but there are also countless examples of where the guy who falls turns out to be a really good pick.

Kopitar, Parise, Stasnty, Moller, Latendresse come to mind right away.

 

[Medicine Twin]

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

Not that I disagree with what you're saying here, I just disagree with your purpose for writing it... or maybe you're not understanding the purpose of the thread and maybe the whole forum for that matter.

We're hockey fans. We come here to talk hockey, give our opinions and read others opinions. None of us have a crystal ball to see how these players will actually turn out but based on what we've seen/read of these players, there's no reason we can't speculate... and maybe even gloat a bit if we turn out to be right.

And I may not speak for everyone here, but when I say that I think a team got a steal in the draft, I'm not saying it based on the ISS, THN, or other rankings. I'm saying it because I believe that the player they chose is better than the players taken ahead them IMO.

 

[VikingAv]

Ya but there are also countless examples of where the guy who falls turns out to be a really good pick.

Kopitar, Parise, Stasnty, Moller, Latendresse come to mind right away.

Stastny didn't fall, he was picked higher than the rankings indicated.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The sharks draft was mediocre to horrible, as it has been every year since 2003. Not to mention we didn't trade any salary for picks.

One more season of DW for me.

If it's of any interest, German Dman Dominik Bielke is a fascinating prospect. He really arrived on the scene this year and has loads of raw potential.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Add this Tim Thomas clone in Janus as in all over the place but get the job done, and you might have a great draft.

Since when does Janus "get the job done"? Aside from one world juniors he's been very mediocre. He may play a similar, all over the place style but he's hardly a Tim Thomas clone.

 

[LAX attack*]

I like Tampa Bay's draft from a sense of having a lot of potential, but a team like Tampa shouldn't be taking only projects at this stage in the rebuild, they should be going with a fair mix of projects and stable players - picking a guy like Janus for 3 superb WJC games is a major red flag to me about their scouting IMO

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

As a die-hard Islanders fan, I'm stoked they grabbed Tavares as opposed to Hedman or Duchene, but I'm wondering what Snow and the gang were thinking ditching so many picks. DeHann might be legit but he was never seen as anything more than a 23rd or 24th overall pick. The Islanders probably could have still got him with their 26th pick which they had previously aquired. Instead they lose 4 draft picks in moving up twice to get him at 12? What the hell was that all about. They started the day with 11 picks and finsihed with 7. For a team that not just a couple days ago talked about restocking their cupboard with as many picks as possible, they sure did a great job throwing picks away. And when you think that both Datsuyk and Zetterberg are 7th and 8th rounders, that should emphasize even more the importance of a rebuilding squad to keep their picks. I'm baffled.

I agree!

Tavares goes under the 'no brainer' category, although they allowed for some drama. He of course is now the hope of the franchise. They on account of him alone.

de Haan may very well be a fine, fine prospect, but they actually gave up 5 picks to get him. Folks need to think about this because Garth Snow told Botta that they absolutely wanted him more than anyone else on the board, period. Fair enough, could be, but when does a pick the rest of the scouting community sees as a 20-30 pick become worth 5 picks to get him at 12? It definitely seems like they allowed themselves to get so goo-goo, ga-ga (probably while scouting Tavares in Oshawa), that they forgot about the rest of the fine players in the draft. I find it hard to believe that de Haan may be better than the combined guys they could have gotten with 26 and 37, much less the other three picks.

In addition, the had a clever and strategic 08 draft and this year it was like they wanted only 3 players and were willing to do anything to get them, regardless of what it cost or if the guy could have been taken at a later junction.

A good 24 hours later, I still see it as poor asset management.

I can tell you too that a buddy was out for drinks with the staff Saturday night and reports that the staff was NOT all on the same level with this draft. There was disparity about the guys they took, when they took them and what they possibly skipped out on to take them. This team made 4 picks in 3 rounds depite coming in with 7 picks in those first three rounds.

Throw in a second project of a goalie who'd likely have been around in round 6, a Russian project hardly anyone knows and an OHL kid who could find himself heading to jail within 10 days and welp, I really gotta wonder if that scouting staff just had downed a few bottles right after taking Tavares.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Not in a particular order, but teams that I liked on draft day:

Anaheim: 5 first picks could be dyamite for them. Didn't expect Vatanen to go as far as he did.
Atlanta: Solid picks at the beginning, I am not a Bubnick fan but at round 6, it's a pretty good guess. And Koper in the 7th is also a fine educated guess.
Colorado: Just for the first 3 who should be surefire NHL'ers. And you never know what Maxwell will be able to give you.
Detroit: I thought that Nick Jensen would potentially be a steal. With the Wings, I'm sure of it. I'm just baffled by the Fournier pick though. They had much better choices at that rank. But Ferraro and Tatar in round 2. Congrats. Ferraro alone, with the Wings, will make other teams wonder why they didn't pick him.
Edmonton: Roy and Rajala that far. Sure, there are concerns. But the pure talent is still there. But we all know that pure talent might not always be enough. We'll see. And I'm not talking about MPS and Lander. And I really like Bigos as well.
Tampa: Solid Tampa. Hedman, Ashton. And then if Panik finds consistency and if Hutchings can build up some strength. Add this Tim Thomas clone in Janus as in all over the place but get the job done, and you might have a great draft.

I can't put that team as a whole in the great drafts but just for Roussel, Nashville was great. Roussel will prove to everybody that he should have been top 20. As far as the Rangers are concerned, I have to congratule them in picking Werek at 47.

As an Islander fan, I am still "mehhhhh" about this draft. There's definitely some disappointment with respect to what it took to get a guy they wanted and if they couldn't have gotten some of these guys much later.

But they do believe they have 3 sure-thing NHLers with their first three picks, and they're also ecstatic with the Swedish goalie they took in round 3, so I suppose you'd have to throw them right in there with Colorado.

Like Atlanta, Anaheim, Edmonton, Nashville and TB's drafts as well.

 

[SK13]

What does everyone think about the Blues draft this year? I am on the fence about it.

1 David Rundblad (#17)
2 Brett Ponich (#48)
3 Sergei Andronov (#78)
4 Tyler Shattock (#108)
6 David Shields (#168)
7 Max Tardy (#202)

Missed this.

Runblad is a solid prospect and I love Shattock at 108. Andronov is an overager, but I liked him at the World Juniors.

Don't know too much about Shields or Tardy and I think I would have gone with Stefan Elliot over Ponich.

Solid draft.

 

[Celtic Note]

Missed this.

Runblad is a solid prospect and I love Shattock at 108. Andronov is an overager, but I liked him at the World Juniors.

Don't know too much about Shields or Tardy and I think I would have gone with Stefan Elliot over Ponich.

Solid draft.

Thanks for the input! I am pretty impressed with the EDM draft.

 

[JMFJ 3]

I don't like the fact that Edmonton took two "boom or bust" prospects in MSP and Rajala, you have to hedge your bets.

 

[Canucks LB]

I don't like the fact that Edmonton took two "boom or bust" prospects in MSP and Rajala, you have to hedge your bets.

well Ill counter that argument and say, at least one of those two will not bust.

So you have two chances to get a star =)

 

[JMFJ 3]

well Ill counter that argument and say, at least one of those two will not bust.

So you have two chances to get a star =)

Actually it's quite the opposite, probably one of those guys will be a total bust (Rajala) and one will never exceed expectations (MSP).

 

[SK13]

I don't like the fact that Edmonton took two "boom or bust" prospects in MSP and Rajala, you have to hedge your bets.

I don't remotely agree with boom-or-bust for MPS.

When you're 6'2, 200lbs and are one of the finest skaters in the draft, you'll probably make the NHL in some capacity. Maybe the offense doesn't quite work out and he levels off in a second/third line player - but you take the damn flier each and every time.