Best and Worst of the 2009 Draft

[Senor Catface]

Edmonton, Colorado, Nashville, and Vancouver all are teams that I think stood out for their selections.

All drafted players that could fall under current "steals"...as in draftees that fell later than what some thought.

 

[MS]

Just another thing.

The real steal in the NHL draft is not a well-known player who drops to you but rather a player who is underscouted (injuries, obscure league) who you think may have been missed. These kinds of players are becoming fewer and fewer as scouting knowledge and insisde info increases.

Anyway, the real steals of the draft are probably players that the general public know least.

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

 

[Spezza]

Spot on MS.

 

[thestonedkoala]

How is it that Schroeder is a huge steal after being passed on, by teams that had multiple picks and Erik Haula not? I mean seriously both are smallish players...Both of them have major questions regarding size.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Buddy... It's not like 21 teams had no idea who this Jordan Schroeder kid was...

He fell for a reason in other words.

And that would be because he is 5'8''. The talent level of the kid is top 10 for sure.

 

[Probie]

Simon duprese at 30th was the biggest steal since esposito in the 07 draft. He was projected around 15th but fell to the pens at 30th. He's going to be the next bouwmeester.

Depres fell a bit but he was ranked 30 by Redline, and 33 by CentralScouting. Ranking tsn which is a sports tv station up their with central scouting and redline is not the way to go. If you merge all the rankings, he did fall, and I think the pens did get a good pick at their drafting position.

 

[Pentothal]

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

Brilliant post.

 

[Chea*]

It's funny if you go back to a previous draft and remember the reactions here ... there are always 8-10 guys who are 'consensus top-60 picks' who end up falling through the rankings and being dispersed in rounds 3-7, and then those team are deemed the winners of the draft for picking up said 'steals'. Go back 5 years to 2004, for ie. :

- the 'top-60 picks' falling well back into the draft were Sergei Ogrodnikov, Wes O'Neill, Evan McGrath, Oscar Hedman, David Schulz, etc. 'Steals of the draft!' ... 3 NHL games between them.

- Lauri Tukonen, Rob Schremp, and Marek Schwarz fell 5 or so picks later than expected in round one, and were the 'steals of the first round'. All 3 look like busts at this point.

- Phoenix were idiots for taking Blake Wheeler over Al Montoya and Rostislav Olesz. Didn't sign Wheeler, but their scouts were bang-on.

- Calgary were the 'biggest losers of the draft' for taking Kris Chucko over Schremp. Neither player is looking great, but rather humorously the gritty 'no-talent' Chucko had 28 goals in the AHL this year to Schremp's 7 in a similar number of games.

- not a soul on these boards would have singled out David Krejci, Alex Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Versteeg, Chris Campoli, Pekka Rinne, etc. as the best selections in the mid-late rounds.

And so on, and so on.

Sometimes the odd bad pick is really obvious from day one, but the strong selections and 'steals' will take a long time to shake out, and won't be who you'd expect now.

And as you say, most 'steals' will be a) underscouted guys from 'inferior' leagues, either lower jr. leagues in NA or Euro jr. players who weren't selected for major international tourneys, b) players who were hurt or in a poor situation in their draft year and didn't get a chance to showcase their skills, and c) small players who either grew after being drafted or were able to out-skill their size deficiency.

Great post.

 

[zenator]

This is why I personally rate the Oilers as having had one of the worst drafts, the opposite of nearly everyone else's ratings.

If your draft is based on the ISS or CSB ratings, or the ratings of fans on a website, then you aren't doing too well.

 

[GoRatsGo]

I think Despres went at the right time, I thought he would go at 22-26 but 30 isn't too far of a drop.

Anybody think Florida did well?

Kulikov, Shore, Josh Birkholz, Garret Wilson, Corban Knight, Wade Megan, and Scott Timmins.

Timmins was a definite DeBoer pick because he's won 2 OHL championships (and played for Kitchener with him) and can play in the AHL next year but I thought my Florida team did really well this draft and I hope I'm not being a homer lol

 

[dubey]

Buddy... It's not like 21 teams had no idea who this Jordan Schroeder kid was...

He fell for a reason in other words.

Wasn't Esposito the steal of his draft when he fell to Pittsburgh?

Where is he now?

Just another thing.

The real steal in the NHL draft is not a well-known player who drops to you but rather a player who is underscouted (injuries, obscure league) who you think may have been missed. These kinds of players are becoming fewer and fewer as scouting knowledge and insisde info increases.

Anyway, the real steals of the draft are probably players that the general public know least.

This is one of few people in this thread who actually understand what should be considered a "steal." Nothing to do with their pre-draft ranking and where they were actually selected.

 

[Dr Pepper]

And that would be because he is 5'8''. The talent level of the kid is top 10 for sure.

Height didn't exactly make Chicago think twice when drafting Kane back in '07. There must have been something else with Schroeder that convinced 2/3 of the league to pass on him.

 

[Phenomenon]

Drafting means picking up potential, but making them core parts of the team means choosing correct ways and contribution to player development, luck, right timing and giving him a fair chance in a role that fits him. Many players that we call busts were lost during the process due to lack of some of these things. Therefore it is impossible to say who will become the steal of the draft.

 

[btn]

Height didn't exactly make Chicago think twice when drafting Kane back in '07. There must have been something else with Schroeder that convinced 2/3 of the league to pass on him.

I thought I heard someone on TSN say that he did not interview well and that scared off many teams from taking him in the 1st round.

 

[sexytime]

For instance look at Bryan Murrays picks last year...

1st round - Erik Karlsson - Arguably picked really early turned out to be the best defencemen in the world Juniors.

2nd round - Patrick Wiercoch - People are saying now that he could have been taken in the first round easily.

3rd round - Zack Smith - An overager who is tearing it up in Binghamton and his future looks promising.

4th round - Andre Petersson - Playing extremelly well in Sweden

7th round - Emil Sanden - Looks like he'll be heading to Bighamton next year and looks like a potential NHL'er.

What I mean to say is that hardly anyone would have considered these guys steals and many of these picks came off the board. It's also too early to judge, but it gives you an idea of how ISS doesn't dictate talent.

 

[BigEyedPhish]

Ottawa did well..

Drafted 2 possible top 6 forwards in Silfverberg and Hoffman (who could be a steal in the 5th round).

We drafted a goalie in Robin Lehner who has been compared to Henrik Lundqvist.

Jared Cowen who will be an anchor for us, if not more..

Our Blueline looks like it could be deeper than it ever has been event deeper than when we had Chara and a good Redden..

Cowen - Volchenkov
Karlsson - Lee
Wiercioch - Campoli

Looks quite rediculously good for our future..

I really love having Murray and his scouts at our draft table.

 

[Grandpabuzz]

Atlanta had a great draft for reasons mentioned already.

I also thought New Jersey had a stellar draft, picking up Joesefen, Gelinas, and Helgesen--all who I think will be great players.

 

[Whitesnake]

Can people make a freakin difference between a STEAL at draft day and a real STEAL 4 years after? That's all there is to it. Surely MS proved that a steal at draft day often doesn't mean anything. But I'm pretty sure that if we go back and that this exact draft year, I remembered clearly posters already announcing that Meszaros would be a huge steal. He might not have been the steal that it was expected, but the kid does have a whole lot more games than a lot of 1st rounders. And I also remember that some had Zajac and Green as a 1st round steals as well. And they ended up being steals after all. I mean to prove a point, you have to take everything into account and not solely stuff that proves YOUR point.

I ABSOLUTELY agree that steals at draft day are totally different from steals in 4 years. But that exercice can and is fun to do. 'Cause sometimes, it happens to be true.

And I'm pretty sure that if we go back in time for the other drafts, surely we will find steals at draft day that never ended up being....but you'll find steals at draft day that ended up just like that.

 

[CrimsonBruin21]

As a die-hard Islanders fan, I'm stoked they grabbed Tavares as opposed to Hedman or Duchene, but I'm wondering what Snow and the gang were thinking ditching so many picks. DeHann might be legit but he was never seen as anything more than a 23rd or 24th overall pick. The Islanders probably could have still got him with their 26th pick which they had previously aquired. Instead they lose 4 draft picks in moving up twice to get him at 12? What the hell was that all about. They started the day with 11 picks and finsihed with 7. For a team that not just a couple days ago talked about restocking their cupboard with as many picks as possible, they sure did a great job throwing picks away. And when you think that both Datsuyk and Zetterberg are 7th and 8th rounders, that should emphasize even more the importance of a rebuilding squad to keep their picks. I'm baffled.

The scuttlebutt seems to be that 2-3 teams ahead of the Islanders (when they started at 26) were VERY high on de Haan- and most especially the Panthers at 14. Not a 100% guarantee that they would take him of course... but high enough to get Snow's attention obviously. All it takes is for a couple of teams (not the whole field and scouting services) to draw the same conclusion late (e.g. "Hey. If he bulks up a bit- he could be Kaberle 2.0. He's got everything else.") for the pre-draft rankings to go out the window IMHO.

All that said... de Haan needs to be a player for us- b/c we gave up a lot of bites at the apple to get him. No doubt.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

and they moved Pronger at the right stage in his career imo.

Plus they got a huge return for him. The Ducks made out like bandits

 

[4thliner*]

Schroeder's gotta be the biggest steal in the 1st round cuz has was a player that I would have gone at 9 or 10. Gets no respect (cuz he is a midget) despite all the talent in the world, and is a pretty decent 2 way player defensively to boot. Zach Parize once went 17th, nuff said. This was a really really deep draft so you can't be surprised about anything. Most of the guys taken were good players. But interms of overall quality, even the size factor weighing included, he was no worse than the 9th or 10th best prospect.

Evander Kane, even though he went 4, I think 5 years from now he has a chance to be better than Duchene and even Tavares. Kid's an energetic and tough power forward who might one day score 40-50 goals in the NHL.

Jared Cowan I think, no I know, will be a stud if that knee is 100%. Are you kidding me? 6-6 220 dman that can skate like that and move the puck and mash like him spells a franchise defenceman.His offensive tools are veru underrated too as everyone is amazed by his defensive pressence. He is not your typical "shutdown" guy as some might label him. Just less than a year ago scouts were saying there wasn't much to choose between the 2 behemoth dman in Hedman and Cowan, and I sill believed despite his knee injury and wasted year in junior, I've seen enough last year's memorial cup and his domination as a 16 year old. Had he not blown out his ACL and MCL, he'd most likely be a top 3 pick.

 

[Klaus*]

This is why I personally rate the Oilers as having had one of the worst drafts, the opposite of nearly everyone else's ratings.

If your draft is based on the ISS or CSB ratings, or the ratings of fans on a website, then you aren't doing too well.

Not only is your thinking illogical and brash, it is also incorrect. You don't know what the Oilers draft was based on so you pushing your own agenda here is really getting a little bit stale. If you think the organization and scouting department went out and said, "Hey, why don't we look who the favorites and most popular fallers are and pick them", that is simply not true although I know you'd like to believe it.

If you think the Oilers had a horrible draft I think it's pretty clear in anyones eyes that you have an irrational bias against the team and organization considering their picks in MPS, Lander, Rajala and Roy look very solid regardless of how much those players fell. There is no perceivable way to state that these players are going to bust nor is there any concrete evidence that says they will reach their max potential. What can't be argued is the potential in these picks, if they reach their potential this will likely be looked back as the best Oiler draft in well over a decade and that's pretty good.

The Oilers don't care what you personally rate their draft. You're not a scout and more likely than not you really don't know what you're talking about when talking about Anton Lander, Tony Rajala and Olivier Roy.

 

[zenator]

My own agenda ? Now that's plain looney. The Oilers are probably my 2nd or 3rd favourite team.

I'm just saying that I agree with an earlier posters' thinking:

He showed a draft from 5 years ago, where all these players that dropped in the draft were declared "steals". Then he mentioned no-names that were drafted ahead of their rankings and how everyone said "who" ?

His point was, that in hindsight, the so-called steals that dropped and were declared "steals" usually end up as the busts. And the no-names that were drafted early usually end up as the steals. For example, Silfverberg will probably end up twice the player as Ladner. Murray is known as a good drafter with excellent scouts. Last year nobody knew who our 2nd rounder, Wiercioch, was, and now his stock has risen a lot. I bet Vancouver wishes they chose the unknown Wiercioch (who's from Van ironically), instead of Yann Sauve, the ranked 1st rounder who dropped.

You are correct, I am not a scout, just as you aren't, congratulations for being so perceptive.

I'm just projecting all the Oilers' "steals" as likely to bust, just as players in similar situations in past years normally end up.

NHL teams with good scouting often draft surprising no-names, because THE BEST SCOUTS WORK FOR THEM, and are better than people making up lists for ISS, CSB, HFBoard fans, etc. That's why I'm concerned with the Oilers: it appears that they don't have any deep thinking scouts who go off the board a little bit, like all teams that draft well do. They picked a player who dropped each time, just like someone picking from the ISS or HFBoards list would. If they had 1 of these guys it wouldn't be a red flag, but they took droppers in practically every round.

Despite their bad draft, Go Oilers !

Hopefully next year, Tambellini hires some decent scouts.


I am however, devastated and upset that the Oilers don't value my opinion on their draft. It was cruel of you to mention that.

 

[Valic]

This is why I personally rate the Oilers as having had one of the worst drafts, the opposite of nearly everyone else's ratings.

If your draft is based on the ISS or CSB ratings, or the ratings of fans on a website, then you aren't doing too well.

Are you ignorant or just trolling? How can you say the Oilers draft was based on draft rankings when their 3rd, 4th, and 5th guys selected we're almost unknown players to fans. Do some research before you try to sound cool and go against the grain.

 

[zenator]

Are you ignorant or just trolling? How can you say the Oilers draft was based on draft rankings when their 3rd, 4th, and 5th guys selected we're almost unknown players to fans. Do some research before you try to sound cool and go against the grain.

I just have an opinion, that is all.

Try to not be so sensitive.

I'm not just trying to be cool. My observation is based on MS's post showing how these "drops" usually end up. And on my experience last year to the Sens picking semi-unknown risers in the 1st and 2nd round last year, me reacting like "WTF are they doing ? How can they choose Karlsson and Wiercioch with _____ _____ _____ on the board who are ranked much higher by ISS, etc." Then, in hindsight 1 year later, I see how wrong I was. I'm trying to apply the lesson I learned to this year's draft.

Sorry, the Oilers just happened to be the team that picked all the players who dropped.

That was Tambellini, not me that did that.