Bears & NFL Talk 67: Who needs a kicker anyway?

[HawksBeerFan]

That was definitely the case before the rules changed. The new NFL rules favor the passing offenses. Hence, the explosion in scoring. When good teams play against good teams, it's usually QB play that is the difference. At least once or twice in the playoffs in route to a Super Bowl.

I'm curious how the '85 Bears, the Tampa Cover 2 defense, the Ray Lewis Ravens defense would do in today's NFL. Even the Legion of Doom had Russell Wilson.

The biggest anomaly was the Denver Broncos winning the Super Bowl. I still don't know how they did it with a 50% Peyton Manning.

So to your point, it can happen ... but the odds are against it. I do agree that drafting a QB is almost like throwing at a dart board. However, you have to keep throwing until you find one.

Pretty easy, their defense that year was #1 in DVOA

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Yeah, I'd rank Wilson as near-elite at least. If you don't want to put him at prime Manning, Brees, Rodgers, or Brady level, fine. But I'd put him at only a notch or two at most below that. He's a great QB.

I'd say that he's far and away better than any QB we've had in my living memory at the very least.

 

[ColdSteel2]

To be clear, elite to me is prime Manning, Brees, Maholmes, Brady, Rodgers. Players clearly worthy of a top 3 selection. I’d prefer to try to find someone like Wilson or Prescott with a later pick instead.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Because teams that want to trade up want to trade up to get that QB. Guys that would have fallen into the teens are now going in the top 10. Guys that go around 10 go in the top 3. Supply and demand.

So you think the draft is moving toward more QBs going higher in the draft?

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Elite is top 3 or 5 is a fine definition, and if you think that Wilson is just outside that then I could see it but barely.

But if you told me that with a top five overall pick you could land a consensus fifth or sixth best QB in the league for a decade? That's a no-brainer move to me, you take that and build around him.

 

[Illinihockey]

So you think the draft is moving toward more QBs going higher in the draft?

I think thats pretty evident.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

The caveat being it only makes sense when paired with an elite defense. The QB pick risk is out of proportion to the potential reward. Look at Maholmes, the NFL had no idea he would be this good. Control what can be controlled IMO. Building a great defense, offensive line and elite running game is an attainable goal. Throwing picks at a dart board in the QB game is fine, but why use the top picks instead of later 1sts, 2nds, etc?

Just going to look at the 2017 draft to illustrate the point.

Current starting QB from 2017
Mitch (2nd)
Mahomes (10th)
Watson (12th)

Current Starting RB
Fournette (4th)
McCaffrey (8th)
Cook (41st)
Mixon (48th)
Kamara (67th)
*Hunt (86th) not starting but we all know why
Conner (105th)
Mack (143rd)
Jones (182nd)
Carson (243rd)

You have a much better chance finding a good or even great RB in the later rounds than at QB. The Bears very likely chose the wrong guy with who they picked (compared to Mahomes/Watson) but I'd much rather they addressed the issue, unlike the Jags that year.

I'm not writing Trubisky off by the way. It was one game, and right now it's carrying way to much weight on everyone's mind. Is Baker Mayfield complete trash now too? There's going to be ups and downs even with the guys that hit. Got to ride it out.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Elite is top 3 or 5 is a fine definition, and if you think that Wilson is just outside that then I could see it but barely.

But if you told me that with a top five overall pick you could land a consensus fifth or sixth best QB in the league for a decade? That's a no-brainer move to me, you take that and build around him.

It seems like teams cannot do that. They should be able to but looking at the drafts, it’s just not there. All types of QBs are dispersed throughout the 1st with occasional near elite QBs coming from outsife of the 1st. All other positions are picked much more in line with the eventual hierarchy.

 

[HawksBeerFan]

It seems like teams cannot do that. They should be able to but looking at the drafts, it’s just not there. All types of QBs are dispersed throughout the 1st with occasional near elite QBs coming from outsife of the 1st. All other positions or picked much more in line with the eventual hierarchy.

I don't have a problem passing on a QB if you want to build an elite defense, I just don't think where you draft a RB makes that big a difference. If you want to build an elite D (which is part of your hypothetical) you need to spend your top picks on defensive players.

Very good RBs can be acquired without using top draft capital.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Just going to look at the 2017 draft to illustrate the point.

Current starting QB from 2017
Mitch (2nd)
Mahomes (10th)
Watson (12th)

Current Starting RB
Fournette (4th)
McCaffrey (8th)
Cook (41st)
Mixon (48th)
Kamara (67th)
*Hunt (86th) not starting but we all know why
Conner (105th)
Mack (143rd)
Jones (182nd)
Carson (243rd)

You have a much better chance finding a good or even great RB in the later rounds than at QB. The Bears very likely chose the wrong guy with who they picked (compared to Mahomes/Watson) but I'd much rather they addressed the issue, unlike the Jags that year.

I'm not writing Trubisky off by the way. It was one game, and right now it's carrying way to much weight on everyone's mind. Is Baker Mayfield complete trash now too? There's going to be ups and downs even with the guys that hit. Got to ride it out.

Just going to look at the 2017 draft to illustrate the point.

Current starting QB from 2017
Mitch (2nd)
Mahomes (10th)
Watson (12th)

Current Starting RB
Fournette (4th)
McCaffrey (8th)
Cook (41st)
Mixon (48th)
Kamara (67th)
*Hunt (86th) not starting but we all know why
Conner (105th)
Mack (143rd)
Jones (182nd)
Carson (243rd)

You have a much better chance finding a good or even great RB in the later rounds than at QB. The Bears very likely chose the wrong guy with who they picked (compared to Mahomes/Watson) but I'd much rather they addressed the issue, unlike the Jags that year.

I'm not writing Trubisky off by the way. It was one game, and right now it's carrying way to much weight on everyone's mind. Is Baker Mayfield complete trash now too? There's going to be ups and downs even with the guys that hit. Got to ride it out.

Yeah, I understand that and am with that on taking RBs later. It’s not about Trubisky, just philosophically, it seems like a bad idea to take a QB high in the draft. Maybe @Illinihockey is right and next thing we know half the 1st rounders will be QBs and most all of the elite, near elite, etc will be 1st rounders. That seems like the logical progression since nobody seems to know which will be good.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

If there’s not a qb available that you like top fifteenish in the draft then build up your o-line. Case Keenum and C.J. Anderson playing behind Tunsil and Quentin Nelson are going to look much better than they are.

 

[piteus]

Pretty easy, their defense that year was #1 in DVOA

Still, their offense was just so bad. They had a running back by committee and Brock Osweiler starting a lot of the season until Peyton Manning came back at 50%.

I give them credit for getting home field advantage though. Beat the Steelers and Patriots, while beating Cam Newton in the Super Bowl. Even with a great defense, the Broncos are still bit of an outlier in today's NFL. You really have to have a lot go your way with a bad offense to win a championship.

Here's something scary about that team though ... Gary Kubiak was the head coach running their offense. Gary Kubiak is the OC for Minnesota this year. It's the zone blocking scheme.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Falling in love with a guy can cost you. We didn't draft Rodgers because how could we possibly give up on Grossman after only a year? How much did that decision, rational though it could be under certain circumstances, cost us?

That's always been my concern with Trubisky. Aside from the Bucs game, I really haven't seen any indicator from him that his ceiling is anything more than a middle of the road QB (and, truth be told, more often than not I don't think I'd rank his reality even that high). And that's the guy you not only spent a top three pick on but more than that to move up a slot? Yeesh, that's a very high risk move with a questionable reward.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Yeah, I understand that and am with that on taking RBs later. It’s not about Trubisky, just philosophically, it seems like a bad idea to take a QB high in the draft. Maybe @Illinihockey is right and next thing we know half the 1st rounders will be QBs and most all of the elite, near elite, etc will be 1st rounders. That seems like the logical progression since nobody seems to know which will be good.

I'm just not sure how you come to that conclusion. If anyone has some actual data on the hit rate of QBs vs other positions I'd be interested in reading it.

But my guess that QB's that are busts at the top of the draft are just "louder" than the bust at other positions and the success or fail of the picks isn't much different than at other positions. You remember all the QBs that fail out but likely don't remember the Shea McCleallan or Kevin White types unless it's your team.

On top of that, there's more of an margin of error for the other positions in terms of their ability to contribute. If you spend a top 10-20 pick on a CB and he ends up being a nickel corner in the league, that's likely a disappointment for where you picked him, but at least he's still contributing in the league. QB, isn't judged the same way.

 

[piteus]

Falling in love with a guy can cost you. We didn't draft Rodgers because how could we possibly give up on Grossman after only a year? How much did that decision, rational though it could be under certain circumstances, cost us?

That's always been my concern with Trubisky. Aside from the Bucs game, I really haven't seen any indicator from him that his ceiling is anything more than a middle of the road QB (and, truth be told, more often than not I don't think I'd rank his reality even that high). And that's the guy you not only spent a top three pick on but more than that to move up a slot? Yeesh, that's a very high risk move with a questionable reward.

I remember the Rodgers draft. His biggest issue was the failures of past Jeff Tedford QBs in the NFL. It went from Trent Dilfer, Billy Volek, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. And as an Illini fan, you probably know Rodgers first choice was playing for the University of Illinois. Ron Zook passed.

NFL scouts thought Rodgers was a system QB and didn't like where he held the ball (up high) before he threw. Who knows what they were thinking?

 

[ColdSteel2]

I'm just not sure how you come to that conclusion. If anyone has some actual data on the hit rate of QBs vs other positions I'd be interested in reading it.

But my guess that QB's that are busts at the top of the draft are just "louder" than the bust at other positions and the success or fail of the picks isn't much different than at other positions. You remember all the QBs that fail out but likely don't remember the Shea McCleallan or Kevin White types unless it's your team.

On top of that, there's more of an margin of error for the other positions in terms of their ability to contribute. If you spend a top 10-20 pick on a CB and he ends up being a nickel corner in the league, that's likely a disappointment for where you picked him, but at least he's still contributing in the league. QB, isn't judged the same way.

Yeah, you summed up my thoughts. When the QB busts, there is nothing to show for it. That’s more palatable outside the top half of the 1st. I don’t have the data that shows teams have as good or even better chance of finding a good to elite QB later, it just appears that way.

When it comes to Trubisky, I still think he can be really good, but his best weapon is his feet IMO. Would love to see him running a lot more than he has so far.

 

[piteus]

Yeah, you summed up my thoughts. When the QB busts, there is nothing to show for it. That’s more palatable outside the top half of the 1st. I don’t have the data that shows teams have as good or even better chance of finding a good to elite QB later, it just appears that way.

When it comes to Trubisky, I still think he can be really good, but his best weapon is his feet IMO. Would love to see him running a lot more than he has so far.

I hope Trubisky turns out to be really good. However, he's still One Read Mitch. That's the issue. It's the one thing I was hoping would change from season 2 to season 3. When his primary read is open, Mitch is confident and accurate. When he needs to find his second or third option, his throws are all over the place as well as his feet. I'm wondering if he can ever correct this problem. Maybe he just needs more experience. However, it's year 3 now.

Let's hope the Green Bay game was just an aberration. Maybe the lack of a preseason hurt him. Unlike other teams, the Bears didn't even invite another team to training camp to practice. They really had no competition this summer.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I hope Trubisky turns out to be really good. However, he's still One Read Mitch. That's the issue. It's the one thing I was hoping would change from season 2 to season 3. When his primary read is open, Mitch is confident and accurate. When he needs to find his second or third option, his throws are all over the place as well as his feet. I'm wondering if he can ever correct this problem. Maybe he just needs more experience. However, it's year 3 now.

Let's hope the Green Bay game was just an aberration. Maybe the lack of a preseason hurt him. Unlike other teams, the Bears didn't even invite another team to training camp to practice. They really had no competition this summer.

Great point. I couldn’t believe they didn’t use him in the preseason. The only thing I could think was that he had progressed so much so that it had to be kept a secret for as long as possible for strategic reasons. Either that or he hadn’t progressed, same reasoning. So seeing him play the way he did started to answer that question. They should have just played him in the preseason.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I remember the Rodgers draft. His biggest issue was the failures of past Jeff Tedford QBs in the NFL. It went from Trent Dilfer, Billy Volek, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. And as an Illini fan, you probably know Rodgers first choice was playing for the University of Illinois. Ron Zook passed.

NFL scouts thought Rodgers was a system QB and didn't like where he held the ball (up high) before he threw. Who knows what they were thinking?

Sure, but at the same time the general talk during all of that was general disbelief that he kept falling. Too many teams played themselves and it was recognized as it was happening. That's an argument for him maybe not being worth a top five pick, not sliding to 24th overall. So maybe not worth it at 4th where we were (though at the time I remember facepalming that he slide past us and even out of the top five), but as it kept going on we didn't think of trying to trade up? Eh....

 

[piteus]

Sure, but at the same time the general talk during all of that was general disbelief that he kept falling. Too many teams played themselves and it was recognized as it was happening. That's an argument for him maybe not being worth a top five pick, not sliding to 24th overall. So maybe not worth it at 4th where we were, but as it kept going on we didn't think of trying to trade up? Eh....

Who knows? SF thought Alex Smith was the better QB when Aaron Rodgers played in their backyard. I'm convinced these 'incredible' NFL scouts/analysts have NO CLUE how to evaluate a QB unless it's obvious like John Elway, Peyton Manning, or Andrew Luck. In fact, no one knows how a college QBs skills will translate to the NFL. Although I still like Baker Mayfield, I heard his biggest supporters protect yesterday's performance by claiming he hurt his elbow against the Titans. Give me a break. He only hurt his ego. The elbow doesn't cloud your judgement to throw in double coverage.

Someone should have traded up for Rodgers. I do remember some people saying either Rodgers or Smith could drop when SF passed on one. There were only a couple of other teams in the top 10 who could have needed a QB. When that didn't happen, there was going to be a free fall ... unless someone traded up.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Watson runs it in for a 20 YD TD and pays price to get across pylon

My god what a talent

If only the Bears could have somehow drafted kid or that Mahomes guy

 

[CPHawksFan]

Watson runs it in for a 20 YD TD and pays price to get across pylon

My god what a talent

If only the Bears could have somehow drafted kid or that Mahomes guy

It's sickening...Trubisky can still be good, but I don't think he will ever be in the same class as Watson or Mahomes

 

[HawksBeerFan]

Watson in the injury tent already.

The MNF interface is god awful, how is ESPN so bad at everything?

 

[HawksBeerFan]

It's sickening...Trubisky can still be good, but I don't think he will ever be in the same class as Watson or Mahomes

I personally find Watson incredibly overrated. He's very exciting to watch but putting him even in the same conversation with Mahomes is silly.

 

[TheSting]

Falling in love with a guy can cost you. We didn't draft Rodgers because how could we possibly give up on Grossman after only a year? How much did that decision, rational though it could be under certain circumstances, cost us?

That's always been my concern with Trubisky. Aside from the Bucs game, I really haven't seen any indicator from him that his ceiling is anything more than a middle of the road QB (and, truth be told, more often than not I don't think I'd rank his reality even that high). And that's the guy you not only spent a top three pick on but more than that to move up a slot? Yeesh, that's a very high risk move with a questionable reward.

Peep's bash on sports talk but a lot of these sports talk have ex coaches and players...

When Mitch got taken at #2, every sports talk major network was surprised with that pick.

#2 overall on a 1 year college starter. As it stands now, the Bears chose the wrong guy again but that's been their history at that position so. It's unfortunate a Superbowl caliber defense is going to be wasted.