Blue Jays Discussion: Baseball is back. Yay Controversy.

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metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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Career as SP

Stro: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 3.7fwar, 4.1ra9war
Noah: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 80era-, 77fip-, 4.2fwar, 3.6ra9war

Last 10 starts

Stro: 7.3ip/gs, 70era-, 77fip-
Noah: 6.4ip/gs, 75era-, 70fip-

And again, Stro is doing this in the toughest offensive division in baseball, Noah in the easiest.

You're really cherry-picking absurd stats to try to make them appear "close".

There isn't a single person in baseball who would take Stroman over Syndergaard. The raw peripherals show you all you need to know. Go compare their xFIP's (in order to normalize Syndergaard's obviously fluke HR rate from last season) or their SIERA's.

Your point about competition is almost moot. Syndergaard is pin-pointing a ~98 mph fastball and a ~92mph slider: do you really think it matters who he's pitching against? When you're pitching with that type of stuff, it becomes pointless to discuss whether X-opponent is slightly better than Y-opponent. He's a generational talent. He's striking out 13.05 per nine and walking 1.80 per nine. That is absolutely absurd.
 

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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Instead of talking about how good Stroman and Sanchez have been so far this season, some people choose to talk about a pitcher that's not even a Blue Jay. I couldn't care less about how Syndergaard is doing. I love what Stroman and Sanchez are doing right now. Jays should still win the division once they get their offence rolling more consistently. That's all that matters.
 

TheBeastCoast

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Mar 23, 2011
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If you are arguing that Noah has been better over 3 games, then you are right.

I am arguing that Syndergaard has been trending up and past Stroman steadily for a while now and looks to have taken off into a different planet, the start of this season is just a part of that, it is hard to truly compare Syndergaard to Stroman because Stroman missed so much of last season but seeing what we saw from Syndergaard last year and Stroman in the last 2 years(parts of) Syndergaard has been better and even if it was close it will not be close. You might honestly be the only person into baseball(following or in the industry) to really think Stroman is better then Syndergaard. You can have an opinion man but they can be wrong and yours is.
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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He's no Vincent Velazquez, though.

And Dexter Fowler is the best player in baseball.

This point would mean something if Syndergaard wasn't doing more or less the exact same thing last season. 9.96 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9 last season. He's only improved from there. The only wart he had last season was a 1.14 HR/9 which was clearly a fluke given everything we know about HR rates (high strikeout pitchers generate weaker contact which means that they SHOULD give up less homeruns; the opposite was true for Syndergaard last season).

Just watch him pitch and try to tell me that Stroman is even on the same plane. Don't be silly. You're talking about a guy who's painting 98-99 mph fastballs wherever he wants and throwing 93 mph sliders. Batters cant even touch his stuff.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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You're really cherry-picking absurd stats to try to make them appear "close".

There isn't a single person in baseball who would take Stroman over Syndergaard. The raw peripherals show you all you need to know. Go compare their xFIP's (in order to normalize Syndergaard's obviously fluke HR rate from last season) or their SIERA's.

Your point about competition is almost moot. Syndergaard is pin-pointing a ~98 mph fastball and a ~92mph slider: do you really think it matters who he's pitching against? When you're pitching with that type of stuff, it becomes pointless to discuss whether X-opponent is slightly better than Y-opponent. He's a generational talent. He's striking out 13.05 per nine and walking 1.80 per nine. That is absolutely absurd.

You should look up the definition of cherry picking. Because that's what you're doing.

as for fluke, noah's HR numbers were an issue in both AA (1.3hr/9) and AAA (0.7), too, which is not surprising from a guy with a limited arsenal. as for siera, unfortunately it's not league or environment adjusted, so it's not a good number to use.

and of course, Stroman's pure stuff is second to none.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Syndergaard is pin-pointing a ~98 mph fastball and a ~92mph slider: do you really think it matters who he's pitching against? When you're pitching with that type of stuff, it becomes pointless to discuss whether X-opponent is slightly better than Y-opponent. He's a generational talent.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps/

"At the heart of all this: an absolutely dream-worthy repertoire. Look at it this way, and you’d think Marcus Stroman is a guy we made up. I can assure you, he’s very much real."
 

metafour

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Apr 6, 2008
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as for fluke, noah's HR numbers were an issue in both AA (1.3hr/9) and AAA (0.7), too, which is not surprising from a guy with a limited arsenal

Stroman was giving up 1.13 and 1.05 HR/9 in AA in 2012 and then 2013. His MLB rates have been well below that.

You think its not surprising for a guy with CONTROL of a 99 mph fastball and an unhittable breaking ball to be giving up more HRs than MLB average? Use some common sense. As you see this season; 0 homeruns in 20 innings. This is what is to be expected from a pitcher who strikes out 10-13 batters per 9 innings and who posses otherworldly stuff on the mound.

and of course, Stroman's pure stuff is second to none.

Dont make me laugh. There is no comparison stuff-wise between Syndergaard and Stroman.
 

dredeye

BJ Elitist/Hipster
Mar 3, 2008
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Sanchez and Syndergaard were incredibly close, with Sanchez a touch higher.

Norris was higher than all of them IIRC

There were also concerns that with his lack of secondary offerings that he may be destined for the bullpen. It's so annoying that this is still brought up on such a regular basis. If Norris figures it out will this come up constantly because we rented Price at the expense of him. Would it be nice to have Noah over Dickey today? Of course. We traded him for a reigning Cyrus young winning innings eater. That's the risk with any trade. This one is coming up mets. It happens. This rant is not directed at you Aub.
 

metafour

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps/

"At the heart of all this: an absolutely dream-worthy repertoire. Look at it this way, and you’d think Marcus Stroman is a guy we made up. I can assure you, he’s very much real."

Unfortunately, that report has not held true for Stroman. He's striking out 5.06 per 9 this season. Last year in limited action it was 6.00 per 9. Even in 2014 he was "only" striking out 7.65 per 9.

Does that sound like a "made up" pitcher to you with second to none stuff LOL? He's clearly very good, but you're trying to tell me that a Lexus is the same thing as a Bugatti.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Stroman was giving up 1.13 and 1.05 HR/9 in AA in 2012 and then 2013. His MLB rates have been well below that.

Stroman

A-: 0.0
A: 0.0
AA: 1.1
AAA: 0.2
MLB: 0.5

That's called an outlier.

and even that outlier came with a steep learning curve - 1st 57.2ip, 1.3hr/9 --- 2nd 62.0ip, 0.7hr/9.




You think its not surprising for a guy with CONTROL of a 99 mph fastball and an unhittable breaking ball to be giving up more HRs than MLB average? Use some common sense. As you see this season; 0 homeruns in 20 innings. This is what is to be expected from a pitcher who strikes out 10-13 batters per 9 innings and who posses otherworldly stuff on the mound.

yes, hard throwers with limited arsenals often give up higher hr/fb rates than average.


Dont make me laugh. There is no comparison stuff-wise between Syndergaard and Stroman.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps/
 

Mach85

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Mar 14, 2013
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I think it's fair to say Stroman is a #1 starter who you can put at the front of your rotation, but he's not elite, like a David Price for example. Syndergaard, if he keeps trending in the direction he is now, looks like he'll be a top 5-10 pitcher in the league. There's 30 teams and not all are gonna have a Kershaw, MadBum, Scherzer at the front, but those others can put Stroman there and correctly say they have a #1 starter.
 

zeke

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Mar 14, 2005
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Career as SP:

Stro (25): 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 85xfip-, 4.4fwar/32gs, 4.9ra9war/32gs
Price (30): 216gs, 6.7ip/gs, 79era-, 79fip-, 82xfip-, 4.8fwar/32gs, 4.8ra9war/32gs

by age 24

Stro: 24gs, 6.2ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-, 4.5fwar/32gs, 5.3ra9war/32gs
Price: 55gs, 6.2ip/gs, 82era-, 92fip-, 95xfip-, 3.2fwar/32gs, 4.0ra9war/32gs
 
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BlueForever

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Instead of talking about Synderguard and what could have been. My concern is the Jays putting an inning threshold on Sanchez. Why would they shut him down its proven to have back fired in the past for Strasburg.

Why are we babying pitchers all of a sudden?? Was the same done to pitchers like Baumgarner, Clemens, Price, Sale, Hernandez in the past??? Why all of a sudden I don't get it?
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Unfortunately, that report has not held true for Stroman. He's striking out 5.06 per 9 this season. Last year in limited action it was 6.00 per 9. Even in 2014 he was "only" striking out 7.65 per 9.

Does that sound like a "made up" pitcher to you with second to none stuff LOL? He's clearly very good, but you're trying to tell me that a Lexus is the same thing as a Bugatti.

I always feel the need to preface these kinds of things because people are looking to jump on arguments people aren't making, so: I'm not saying that Stroman is better. I don't believe he's better. But...

When that pitcher openly states that he's trying to generate weak, groundball contact, and subsequently generates an elite rate of weak, groundball contact... yes. I would say his stuff has been remarkably effective.

His swinging strike rate will never be crazy like Syndergaard's, but I expect Stroman would get a lot more swinging strikes if he threw pitches outside the strikezone as frequently as Syndergaard does. He would also throw a lot more pitches.
 

TheBeastCoast

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Mar 23, 2011
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I always feel the need to preface these kinds of things because people are looking to jump on arguments people aren't making, so: I'm not saying that Stroman is better. I don't believe he's better. But...

When that pitcher openly states that he's trying to generate weak, groundball contact, and subsequently generates an elite rate of weak, groundball contact... yes. I would say his stuff has been remarkably effective.

His swinging strike rate will never be crazy like Syndergaard's, but I expect Stroman would get a lot more swinging strikes if he threw pitches outside the strikezone as frequently as Syndergaard does. He would also throw a lot more pitches.

Yes they are both very different stylistically from each other and Stroman's dropping of the 4 seam fastball has gone with his drop in K's but either way I think that K rate needs to be higher then the 5's if he wants to be considered in the top pitchers in baseball, he has battled some bad luck early mind you with some fluky hits and bad defense which has made him have to pitch to contact even more. Like I said I am a huge fan of Stroman but objectively I just can not say that he is going to end up a better pitcher then Thor or that he is right now.
 

Muston Atthews

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Jul 2, 2009
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I understand Ks are sexy and all, but they're not an efficient way of doing business. I'd rather a guy who can induce a groundballs early in the count who goes deep than a guy who will strike out a bunch of guys but can't go deep because of a high pitch count.
 
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