Barzal point projection/ranking this season

[GrandmaSlices51631]

BUMP

Currently 52 GP 15G 26A 41P

I'm willing to say that before the season if we knew he could have less than 30 assists, we would think the 2021 Isles were destined to be a lottery team.

Indeed. My projections were not conservative at all but I was ~30 points off. I thought he'd really rack up points vs the bottom feeding teams but it just didn't happen.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

His line mates are gonna hinder him a bit but I think he’ll go very to close to ppg. If we magically pull a guy with a quick release on his line easily over ppg.

like what I’m seeing so far this year with the willingness to come up the middle. Honestly the best thing he can do personally for his production is move the puck quicker on the Powerplay

The myth that Lee is useless.

 

[ScaredStreit]

The myth that Lee is useless.

This drives me nuts. Just because the guy isn't a flashy player doesn't mean he's not effective offensively.

 

[buud]

if he had 10 pts and was a +56, i'd be really happy!

 

[notDatsyuk]

That really only happened in the North, and for Zibanejad.

Tied for 19th, and six of the 18 players with more are in the North.

He's top twenty in +/-, which is good.

He's sixth in PIM, which is not.

 

[scott99]

He was definitely a huge disappointment. I’ve always said he has elite skills, but he’s not an elite player. Kinda like a basketball player with elite skills, but scores just 15 points a game. There’s just something missing, $10,000,000 skills and a $5 brain.

At worst, just based on skills, he should be in the top 25 of the NHL. I’m not even sure he’s in the top 50.

 

[Islesfan22]

He was definitely a huge disappointment. I’ve always said he has elite skills, but he’s not an elite player. Kinda like a basketball player with elite skills, but scores just 15 points a game. There’s just something missing, $10,000,000 skills and a $5 brain.

At worst, just based on skills, he should be in the top 25 of the NHL. I’m not even sure he’s in the top 50.

I don’t judge Barzal on points as in team that plays a more attacking system he would be putting up more points for sure. He already proved that under Weight. My biggest complaint with Barzal is he plays to perimeter still. When he’s driving the ice down the middle is when he’s at his best.

 

[scott99]

I don’t judge Barzal on points as in team that plays a more attacking system he would be putting up more points for sure. He already proved that under Weight. My biggest complaint with Barzal is he plays to perimeter still. When he’s driving the ice down the middle is when he’s at his best.

I’m not sold that Barzal will ever be THAT GUY for the Isles. He’s an above average offensive player who flashes brilliance, but never nearly enough to be considered elite. I’m hoping we have a first round pick next year. Need to find that guy. I know it’s crazy, but I would love to go in a different direction in the off-season. Would love to trade Barzal+ for Jack Eichel, who desperately wants to get out of Buffalo.

 

[Seph]

BUMP

Currently 52 GP 15G 26A 41P

I'm willing to say that before the season if we knew he could have less than 30 assists, we would think the 2021 Isles were destined to be a lottery team.

Isles have been a defense first and scoring by committee team for a while now, so I can't say I'm surprised that we still made the playoffs in spite of Barzal's disappointing offensive numbers. Still, I am pretty shocked Barzal finished with fewer primary assists than Bailey and only one more assist overall.

 

[Islesfan22]

I’m not sold that Barzal will ever be THAT GUY for the Isles. He’s an above average offensive player who flashes brilliance, but never nearly enough to be considered elite. I’m hoping we have a first round pick next year. Need to find that guy. I know it’s crazy, but I would love to go in a different direction in the off-season. Would love to trade Barzal+ for Jack Eichel, who desperately wants to get out of Buffalo.

Probably not but with eichel I don’t think you will see much of a point increase then barzal. Again I think your to focused on points and not on the player himself. Barzal even in a defense system first still generates lot of chances. Put him with an elite winger I do believe you would see his point total go up. Barzal is not the problem with this team. They lack elite level talent upfront. I’d love to get a pastrnak boeser tarsenko type player with him but probably not gonna happen as they have no cap space.

 

[scott99]

Probably not but with eichel I don’t think you will see much of a point increase then barzal. Again I think your to focused on points and not on the player himself. Barzal even in a defense system first still generates lot of chances. Put him with an elite winger I do believe you would see his point total go up. Barzal is not the problem with this team. They lack elite level talent upfront. I’d love to get a pastrnak boeser tarsenko type player with him but probably not gonna happen as they have no cap space.

It’s not even about points, though he really needs to produce more based on his talent level. The speed and hands should be producing a lot more, and he should be lifting up the level of players around him. I think a lot of it is mental. The guy disappears for 10-15 games at a time.

Look at Tavares, his first year, he resurrected the careers of two career minor leaguers (Parenteau & Moulson). Barzal really doesn’t have that ability of making people around him, much better.

 

[Seph]

I don’t judge Barzal on points as in team that plays a more attacking system he would be putting up more points for sure. He already proved that under Weight. My biggest complaint with Barzal is he plays to perimeter still. When he’s driving the ice down the middle is when he’s at his best.

The biggest difference in Barzal's production under Weight vs. this season was his powerplay production and not having Tavares to run the PP for him. Even under Trotz' defensive system, Barzal put up 5v5 points at an elite level -- only 7 players had more 5v5 points than him this season and of those 7, only McDavid, Mathews and Marner outproduced him by 5 points or more. Heck, he even had more 5v5 points than MacKinnon. He was on pace to put up ~95% of the 5v5 points he put up under Weight over the same number of games, whereas he was on pace for ~44% of the PP pts. And while we can fault the powerplay system to a certain extent for his lack of overall production, Leddy, Nelson, Wahlstrom and Bailey all outproduced him in PP pts this season and Pageau tied him, which should not happen given that he had notably more PP TOI than each of them and how much of the PP he spends with the puck on his stick.

If he wants to be an elite offensive player in the league, he needs to improve his play on the PP. Too often we watch him hold the puck for lengthy periods of time while the PKers are happy to let him stand there looking for the perfect pass and eat up time, as they know he isn't going to shoot. He needs to move the puck quicker, move his feet more to draw PKers out of position and shoot more. I'm not trying to say he wouldn't benefit from a higher level of talent around him, but a lot of it is on him too.

 

[FourRings]

The biggest difference in Barzal's production under Weight vs. this season was his powerplay production and not having Tavares to run the PP for him. Even under Trotz' defensive system, Barzal put up 5v5 points at an elite level -- only 7 players had more 5v5 points than him and of those 7, only McDavid, Mathews and Marner outproduced him by 5 points or more. Heck, he even had more 5v5 points than MacKinnon. He was on pace to put up ~95% of the 5v5 points he put up under Weight over the same number of games, whereas he was on pace for ~44% of the PP pts. And while we can fault the powerplay system to a certain extent for his lack of overall production, Leddy, Nelson, Wahlstrom and Bailey all outproduced him in PP pts this season and Pageau tied him, which should not happen given that he had notably more PP TOI than each of them and how much of the PP he spends with the puck on his stick.

If he wants to be an elite offensive player in the league, he needs to improve his play on the PP. Too often we watch him hold the puck for lengthy periods of time while the PKers are happy to let him stand there looking for the perfect pass and eat up time, as they know he isn't going to shoot. He needs to move the puck quicker, move his feet more to draw PKers out of position and shoot more. I'm not trying to say he wouldn't benefit from a higher level of talent around him, but a lot of it is on him too.

Insightful analysis. Nice post.

 

[Islesfan22]

It’s not even about points, though he really needs to produce more based on his talent level. The speed and hands should be producing a lot more, and he should be lifting up the level of players around him. I think a lot of it is mental. The guy disappears for 10-15 games at a time.

Look at Tavares, his first year, he resurrected the careers of two career minor leaguers (Parenteau & Moulson). Barzal really doesn’t have that ability of making people around him, much better.

Barzal took the league by storm and out scored Tavares who was getting more ice time. I really question your hockey iq when you say Barzal doesn’t have the ability to make players around him better. There is few players in league who create more scoring chances then Barzal.