I think 5 years is a bit much really. All of the forward core will be 30+ and the defensemen will be to the end of the primes. We just don't see those ages of players all win the Cup. I know it really doesn't seem like a big deal but the drop offs that happen from 27-30 are pretty large and after 30 it gets more extreme. Even if MacK stays elite, you have others who likely won't keep up their play. On top of that you have the MacK, Rants, Byram, Toews, and potential whatever goalie is around raises.
To me, this year is the last year where Avs can find themselves near the very top of the contending list. Next year, the sacrifices will be a bit more (Byram and bonues will be expensive), but still a solid base to trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Year 3 is the last hurrah of Rants under 12m (and if things go well, George under 6). Conceivably in year 4 you have 72-76m tied up in 8 players (that's not re-signing Toews and keeping G for his contract) without a starting goalie... 5 of those players bing 30+. Another year on that, to me, just creates more headache alongside age being a large factor.
I see your points and appreciate the dialog. I'm hopeful about that 5th year. But with a realistic lens I think.
I agree with you that this year is clearly our best shot to win again. With that in mind, I hope C-mac shows his mettle and is super aggressive at the deadline.
Next season, we all know what's coming and it's going to result in big drop in depth to start the year. The whole question of whether the cap is rising 1M or 4M will probably be the deciding factor on whether we can hang on to a "kinda core" player like Sammy G. But any way you cut it we will be thinning out our already thin depth.
The necessary counter action to this is that we continue to be aggressive at the deadline on an annual basis. Unless we find someone willing to part with a young, cost controlled 2C for a king's ransom (that we would have the assets to pay?), then we take the approach of patching and re-patching our secondary scoring or 3rd D pairing at the deadline year after year with maximum retention on all contracts received. This will cost us practically all our draft capital for the next 5-6 years, but it's the best way to squeeze value out of this core's remaining competitive years. And to be honest, with the way we draft, I don't see any pick we select in the near term making an impact at the NHL level before the end of this 5 year window. Might as well just own it and push all the chips in. This deadline-or-bust strategy is supplemented in the offseason by peppering in cheap UFA vets willing to take a discount to chase a cup, and other middle-age players willing to bet on themselves with 1 year deals to get a stats boost (such as E-rod).
I think we keep Toews at 7.5-8Mx8 (he'll be 38 by the end but who the hell cares) and Rants at 12-12.5Mx8. The cap increases should come quick enough to cover those raises. Plus, we probably dump Manson in one of those years, which may costs us a pick in the process but someone will overvalue him so won't be impossible. This gives us the flexibility to keep our insanely talented and insanely expensive core while plugging in C-level depth. We probably start every season for the next 4 years feeling like this one, where we don't like the depth at the start of the year, but everyone knows the deadline is where we buy it back. And we should be ready to swallow the fact that most deadline adds moving forward will be pure rentals. This gives us the best bang for our cap space and keeps the rest of the core intact.
As for goalies, I predict George does well, prices himself out, and we go back to the well by trading for someone' else's up-and-coming backup. It's the Avs way. And I bet it works out reasonably well. Too much unpredictability with goalies to make a firm forecast on that other than the idea that we keep it cheap and somewhat unproven.
By the 5th year (26-27 season) it will feel like we are coasting on fumes, but despite their age I think we still have a core where it makes sense to go for one more big splash at the deadline. Maybe by that 5th year our chances feel closer to "lightning in a bottle" as you put it, but my prediction is we are still in the mix as a top 5 playoff team. To me, that is still realistic striking distance and better than today's Penguins or Washington.
After the dreaded summer of '27, we lose a core player or two (or three) and are now on the outside looking in as far as contender status. Maybe we use the word "re-tool" etc. but we are now ready to keep our high draft picks again. In my mind, this will begin the true "lighting in a bottle" or bubble team era.
