Speculation: Auston Matthews Offer Sheet?

[NoName]

I feel like that if the Leafs were unwilling to match an over-the-top offersheet, it would be Marner’s rather than Matthews, since it is Matthews who is the face of the franchise (and ultimately makes MLSE more money).

Either way, we are looking at four firsts to Toronto for one of these guys... that is no small deterrent.

Anyway, with Gardiner and Hainsey off the books this summer the Leafs do have a ton of cap-space. The question is will it all be eaten up signing their two star RFAs or will they be able to save a little to work on their blue-line?


On a side-note if the NHL ever wants to see offer-sheets become common again, they would have to make the compensation costs way less steep, particularly for the elite stars (look at how quickly it jumps from a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to four 1sts).

 

[Mickey Marner]

Why the hell would we panic he is a RFA. It will get done just like it got done with Willy.

If Dubas caved and gave Willy 8.5M, Matthews 13M and Marner 11M like this board has said they are worth (or their initial ask was) peoplke would be all over him.

Not a single Leaf fan will care that these guys miss a few games at the start of a year if it means they all come in as a group 3M+ cheaper.



They won't be humbled. They weren't when the Leafs made the playoffs after the "will they make the playoffs at all during Babcock's contract" thread. They weren't when Matthews proved to be better than Laine.

They weren't when Marner wasn't Gagner 2.0. They weren't when they made the playoffs for a 2nd year after "being lucky" with injuries and career years.

They weren't when JT came home. And they won't be here. They'll do the exact same thing as always.

Go quiet for a week or two and then pretend they never said otherwise and everyone knew what happened would happen, and then focus on the next "alarming" thing coming up for the team.

I probably am overestimating the level of self-awareness and humility of those who think Matthews is going to receive an offer sheet 20-25% above McDavid's AAV. The week of silence will be nice though!

 

[Mugzy97]

You'd be wrong to think it's not possible he receives an offer sheet, but it's a very, very small chance.

 

[NoName]

I probably am overestimating the level of self-awareness and humility of those who think Matthews is going to receive an offer sheet 20-25% above McDavid's AAV. The week of silence will be nice though!

He could get offer-sheeted I guess, but it would have to be by a team with a mountain of cap space, a rich team (because offering a max contract isn’t something all teams can afford... looking at you Arizona) and a surefire playoff team (you don’t want to take Matthews just to give the Leafs four lottery picks). The list of teams in that position are slim. Of the two I would say Marner would be the easier to actually successfully offersheet, but while I don’t think either of them being offersheeted is likely, I also don’t think it is flatly impossible. This offseason has a lot of star RFAs up for extensions, so if an offersheet were to happen, it would be this summer.

It is worth remembering that no one offer-sheeted Nylander even though he sat out until December 1 and it was pretty clear that an $8 million x5 year contract would have cut it. GMs still balked at giving up those picks just to lock up a player at such an above-market value contract.

 

[dortt]

I feel like that if the Leafs were unwilling to match an over-the-top offersheet, it would be Marner’s rather than Matthews, since it is Matthews who is the face of the franchise (and ultimately makes MLSE more money).

Either way, we are looking at four firsts to Toronto for one of these guys... that is no small deterrent.

Anyway, with Gardiner and Hainsey off the books this summer the Leafs do have a ton of cap-space. The question is will it all be eaten up signing their two star RFAs or will they be able to save a little to work on their blue-line?


On a side-note if the NHL ever wants to see offer-sheets become common again, they would have to make the compensation costs way less steep, particularly for the elite stars (look at how quickly it jumps from a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to four 1sts).

they already made them less steep. It used to be 5 first round picks for any halfway decent player

 

[dortt]

Does the offer sheet process apply to other leagues?

On a related note, does anyone know if AM likes to play non-contact shinny?

do you mean the KHL? No, a player can sign there and there is no option for the NHL team to match or receive compensation

 

[NoName]

they already made them less steep. It used to be 5 first round picks for any halfway decent player

Yeesh, that is rough. Given how building through the draft is so paramount in a salary cap system, 4 firsts for a true franchise star is still pretty heavy.

 

[Cup or Bust]

If he makes it past July 1st it could happen, but the Leafs would have to be stupid to let it get past July 1st. Matthews is going to get a large contract and I cant see it being under 12 million per season.

 

[powerstuck]

I probably am overestimating the level of self-awareness and humility of those who think Matthews is going to receive an offer sheet 20-25% above McDavid's AAV. The week of silence will be nice though!

The point of doing an OS to Matthews at 12/12.5M is...well pointless. At 12.5M or less, Leafs match without even thinking about it.

So the only reason the talk is in the 15M mark, is to make it ''impossible'' for Leafs to match.

 

[Lempo]

He could get offer-sheeted I guess, but it would have to be by a team with a mountain of cap space, a rich team (because offering a max contract isn’t something all teams can afford... looking at you Arizona) and a surefire playoff team (you don’t want to take Matthews just to give the Leafs four lottery picks). The list of teams in that position are slim. Of the two I would say Marner would be the easier to actually successfully offersheet, but while I don’t think either of them being offersheeted is likely, I also don’t think it is flatly impossible. This offseason has a lot of star RFAs up for extensions, so if an offersheet were to happen, it would be this summer.

It is worth remembering that even though he sat out until December 1 and it was pretty clear that an $8 million x5 year contract would have cut it. GMs still balked at giving up those picks just to lock up a player at such an above-market value contract.

We have no way of knowing if his agent had serious or very serious negotiations with a team or teams that in the end just failed to quite reach the final phase of the agreed terms of the SPC being written into an actual official Offer Sheet and sent to TML for First Refusal.

He may have had takers.

 

[Dog]

Imagine leafs taking 8 1st rounders for letting Matthews and Marner go! We would have 3 1st rounders for 4 drafts in a row. That's just insane!

 

[dortt]

Yeesh, that is rough. Given how building through the draft is so paramount in a salary cap system, 4 firsts for a true franchise star is still pretty heavy.

I'd rather it drop to 3 first round picks as top compensation. When it was 5, it was mainly the elite of the elite getting offer sheets (Fedorov and Sakic signed them, as did Gratton... yes... Bobby Clarke gave Gratton an offer sheet)

 

[Mickey Marner]

He could get offer-sheeted I guess, but it would have to be by a team with a mountain of cap space, a rich team (because offering a max contract isn’t something all teams can afford... looking at you Arizona) and a surefire playoff team (you don’t want to take Matthews just to give the Leafs four lottery picks). The list of teams in that position are slim. Of the two I would say Marner would be the easier to actually successfully offersheet, but while I don’t think either of them being offersheeted is likely, I also don’t think it is flatly impossible. This offseason has a lot of star RFAs up for extensions, so if an offersheet were to happen, it would be this summer.

It is worth remembering that no one offer-sheeted Nylander even though he sat out until December 1 and it was pretty clear that an $8 million x5 year contract would have cut it. GMs still balked at giving up those picks just to lock up a player at such an above-market value contract.

Right. If the Leafs were mediocre, could only afford one and Colorado were the team being bandied about, I'd buy it. But Arizona, the team with the worst record over the last 4 seasons, that is also the poorest team and can't find an arena is certainly not going to inflate the RFA market in a max contract. The fact that people, some of whom paid for a post-secondary education, don't understand that is absurd.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Yes, but if Matthews gets offer-sheeted for, say, 14 million, I'd say Matthews accepts it. Not that he wants to leave Toronto, but because he knows that the Leafs would accept it and he'd get PAID. Let's face it, Toronto would riot if the Leafs didn't match that.

I'd say the more likely scenario is that he uses it as leverage to get a fair contract without forcing Dubas' hand and souring the relationship. Why would he handicap the team that he wants to sign with for 8 more seasons?

 

[Mickey Marner]

The point of doing an OS to Matthews at 12/12.5M is...well pointless. At 12.5M or less, Leafs match without even thinking about it.

So the only reason the talk is in the 15M mark, is to make it ''impossible'' for Leafs to match.

The point of offer sheets isn't to inflate the RFA market by poaching opposing players with loony contracts. That would be like believing abortions exist so you don't have to pull out. They exist to restrict the movement of players, while deflating their salary relative to unrestricted free agents.

 

[compan]

Imagine leafs taking 8 1st rounders for letting Matthews and Marner go! We would have 3 1st rounders for 4 drafts in a row. That's just insane!

Almost makes you think...

 

[BruinsBtn]

Imagine leafs taking 8 1st rounders for letting Matthews and Marner go! We would have 3 1st rounders for 4 drafts in a row. That's just insane!

Then you look at the Leafs draft history outside the top-10 and realize you better match.

 

[Strangelove]

I'd rather it drop to 3 first round picks as top compensation. When it was 5, it was mainly the elite of the elite getting offer sheets (Fedorov and Sakic signed them, as did Gratton... yes... Bobby Clarke gave Gratton an offer sheet)

But was the compensation 5 first round picks??

Anyway, I think Philly reacquired all the comp picks in the Renberg trade...

Bobby Clarke also got Kesler to sign an offer sheet (I think the comp would have been a 2nd).

Gotta love Clarkie, we need GMs like him these days!

Can you imagine the traffic here if GMs these days were handing out offer sheets like Clarkie!

I mean you KNOW he'd be offering them to Matthews/Marner out of Leaf-hatred if nothing else.

 

[Strangelove]

Imagine leafs taking 8 1st rounders for letting Matthews and Marner go! We would have 3 1st rounders for 4 drafts in a row. That's just insane!

Twelve first round picks!

And if all those drafted players turned out like Matthews/Marner and were offersheeted and not matched

... that would be 52 first round picks!!!

Or something like that, math isn't my strong suit...

 

[HogTown06]

It's unlikely that an offer sheet will even be presented and even more unlikely that he would sign it.

 

[Eat The Rich]

If Auston Matthews gets an Offer Sheet, then I would hate to be the GM of the team who has to play the dollar game with the Leafs.

If I was Dubas and that happened I'd poach their entire front office.

 

[Mantooth]

He does not to be in Toronto till he is 29. He wants only a 4-5 yr term getting to see free agency.

He is from Arizona ..he’d like to pkay there.

How long have you known matthews? Suprised he would confide in you.

 

[powerstuck]

The point of offer sheets isn't to inflate the RFA market by poaching opposing players with loony contracts. That would be like believing abortions exist so you don't have to pull out. They exist to restrict the movement of players, while deflating their salary relative to unrestricted free agents.

Sure, but then why even OS Matthews at 12,5M if you know Leafs match ?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Sure, but then why even OS Matthews at 12,5M if you know Leafs match ?

You don't. You accept that offer sheets aren't intended as a player acquisition tool. A lack of offer sheets means the system is functioning properly. They don't exist to pry players away from the Maple Leafs, they exist so the Maple Leafs don't pry players from small market teams.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

do you mean the KHL? No, a player can sign there and there is no option for the NHL team to match or receive compensation

I was implying my local beer league, but I suppose KHL is more or less the same thing.