Speculation: Athanasiou Part 2

[Redder Winger]

The most relevant peers.

You go on about Burakovsky. Burakovsky's on a top line in Washington now. They clearly had plans for him moving up when they gave him 3M. Burakovsky at every turn has been superior to AA in play, in presence on the team, everything. He's not a comparable.

I mean, look on the Wings at Petr Mrazek. He came in and gave them one year of FANTASTIC, Vezina-caliber goaltending. Now, he's a really weak link and the Wings are not likely to renew his deal at the end of this year. Same deal as AA. If they sign him for 2.5M or whatever it is he's asking for, what the hell do you do if he craps the bed? He's got one year of good play. You don't just assume that a guy is good because of one good year. What if this year everyone commits to stopping AA and he pots 10-12 goals?

A guy like Burakovsky did it... and then repeated it and then repeated it again.

There is a reason why teams (not just the Wings) sign veterans and give them chance after chance. Guys have track records of doing things. With a young player, you have to mitigate your risk that his one year isn't just a fluke. I mean, everyone kinda thought that Nyquist might have some sustainable goal pop because he was getting the same kind of high quality shots. If you remember the Nyquist explosion year... he was getting breakaways and other high percentage shots because he could turn the afterburners on and seemingly do it at will. Now, he's scoring 12 goals a year because teams started realizing he could do that.

It's not like we're saying "ZOMG, Patrick Eaves scored 30 goals and he only made 1M. 1.9M is what players with near identical stats and usage are getting paid.

Athanasiou could be on the top line today if Blashill wanted.
Just like Burakovsky is.

You said yourself you wouldn't have blinked at a 2x2.2M contract over the summer..

This isn't about Athanasiou's value vs production for you.

And that's all it's about for me.

 

[Ezekial]

You win hockey games with goals.
Not Corsi.

Same team.
Same GM.
Same age.

Tatar 100 games 24G 23A 47 Points - 3x2.75M
Athanasiou 101 games 27G 16A 43 points.

Nothing gets inflated like a rate stat with low usage against marginal competition. Let's not forget that hockey isn't a one dimensional sport.

AAs relative corsi, which is a stat used to compare how well players drive in regards to their teammates, says he drives possession more like Justin Abdelkader than Dylan Larkin. In fact he's as close to your guy Riley Sheahan in the negative as he is to Dylan Larkin in the positive of that aspect.

Riley Sheahan had 96 points in 202 games when he signed his 2 million dollar deal, you get paid for your production.

The easiest thing to change in your game is effort - not develop skill, as Mantha said "you just have to do it"

“It really was to [learn to] compete every night,” Mantha told The Athletic. “We can’t lie about it. When I got up from juniors, that was my weakness. Right now, I’ve turned it around and tried to make it my force.”
Mantha took it one step further. Asked when he finally figured out what kind of effort it was going to take to have consistent success, he said it had nothing to do with figuring it out. It was actually doing it. On some level, players probably know how much work is required; some are just more willing than others to do it. Sometimes it’s even more challenging for a player with gifts like Mantha to put in the effort when sheer talent has provided results in the past.
“It’s just doing it,” Mantha said. “Getting it in your head every night. To be honest with you, it took me over two years. That’s the reality. If I would have started to do that since I got out of juniors, who knows? Maybe I wouldn’t have had to play in the American League. It did take me two years. Right now, it’s here and I’m going to keep it here.”

I don't see why you think it's so great to reward shotty effort because of breakaways, they're exciting but not the end all be all.



Edit: also Tatar had a 4 year body of work in Grand Rapids in which he outscored AAs career AHL point totals in 2 separate seasons and came up 2 points short in a 61 game shortened season. So maybe that holds weight too.

 

[lomekian]

Holland won't be here in 4-5 years when it's time for Athanasiou to get paid.

So the whole franchise is suddenly going to stop rewarding loyalty as the most obsessively loyal franchise in a sport obsessed with loyalty....hmmm

 

[RedWingsDad]

Anyone who watched Tatar develop and watched AA develop, to the same point in their careers that AA is currently at... cannot say they are comparable. Get out of here with that disingenuous crap. Tatar was much more proven (see: AHL career) when he got his contract (because you know, consistency matters).

Seriously, just get out of here with that crap... the two are not comparable.

p.s. also attitude matters, we don't want to give lots of money to a *potential* diva shit head. So that could also be a factor. I know it would be if I was handing out contracts.

 

[Redder Winger]

You don't prove anything about your NHL career in the AHL.

Tatar's AHL performance doesn't matter one iota when it comes to his NHL pay.

How much money is Pulkkinen making these days, based on AHL performances that blow Tatar out of the water?

 

[Ezekial]

You don't prove anything about your NHL career in the AHL.

Tatar's AHL performance doesn't matter one iota when it comes to his NHL pay.

How much money is Pulkkinen making these days, based on AHL performances that blow Tatar out of the water?

It's a model of consistency.


Edit: Pulkkinen sucked at the NHL level though.... Awful example

Then again you think he should've been given more of a chance to prove himself on the PP, soooooo

 

[Ezekial]

ALSO Rumors swirling that KH increased his single season offer.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

ALSO Rumors swirling that KH increased his single season offer.

Probably from $1.25 million to $1.5 million per something like that.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Probably from $1.25 million to $1.5 million per something like that.

That's a deal he should look at. 1.5M (minus about 10% for holdout games missed) + arb eligible next year. If he really wants to show he's worth a bigger deal... it's on him. He'd have leverage in terms of the arb and if he cleans up the negative aspects of his game at all (commits to a full time effort and actually does what Blash wants), he could be in line for a hell of a nice raise.

 

[TheMule93]

my guess is that he fears he's gonna be in the doghouse again and get 10-12min a night like last season, limiting his next contract

 

[Ezekial]

If that's his worry he should've signed the 2 year and worked his ass off to get minutes. Guarantees money, sets QFO up better, gives him time to prove his worth.

I could see him signing 1x1.5 for sure though. Still think he f***ed himself, it's almost the old deal with the hold out.

 

[Redder Winger]

That's a deal he should look at. 1.5M (minus about 10% for holdout games missed) + arb eligible next year. If he really wants to show he's worth a bigger deal... it's on him. He'd have leverage in terms of the arb and if he cleans up the negative aspects of his game at all (commits to a full time effort and actually does what Blash wants), he could be in line for a hell of a nice raise.

$1.5M - 10% = $1.35M

A $100,000 increase.

Not even worth everyone's time for a conference call to make that offer.

Custance said the team, including Blashill, promised him a top 9 role with PP and PK team.
Empty promise coming from Blashill, IMO, given the way he was used the last 8 games of last season.

Without that increased role and TOI, a one year deal doesn't do much for Athanasiou, because even with great per/60 production, he's likely still sitting here with 20 goals and 35 points and not in a position to demand what he's worth.

The other thing is... If it's $1.5 or $1.6 - the team still has to trade someone.
Simply dumping Booth and Witkowski into the AHL won't do it.
Even if it did, then you have no leeway for injuries.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

$1.5M - 10% = $1.35M

A $100,000 increase.

Not even worth everyone's time for a conference call to make that offer.

Custance said the team, including Blashill, promised him a top 9 role with PP and PK team.
Empty promise coming from Blashill, IMO, given the way he was used the last 8 games of last season.

Without that increased role and TOI, a one year deal doesn't do much for Athanasiou, because even with great per/60 production, he's likely still sitting here with 20 goals and 35 points and not in a position to demand what he's worth.

The other thing is... If it's $1.5 or $1.6 - the team still has to trade someone.
Simply dumping Booth and Witkowski into the AHL won't do it.
Even if it did, then you have no leeway for injuries.

The eight games in which he averaged 13 minutes a night, with half of them being over 14 minutes?

How about we look from the trade deadline to the end of the season? 13:57 a night with several nights peeking over 16 mins a night.
Christmas to end of season, 13:59 a night, with again, several games a shade over 15.

AA can feel butthurt about his usage all he wants. It's on him not showing enough of a discernable effort for the coaching staff. He wasn't getting 10 minutes a night. He wasn't shuffled off to a 4th line to rot. He played 14 minutes a night with the majority of his time involving a legitimately good NHL offensive linemate. You can think he deserved more time... but he is simply not as good a hockey player as the rest of the guys in Detroit's top 6. Not Sheahan or Jurco or Glendening... If you want to give AA more icetime, it would come at the expense of your top six guys... THAT is who you should be comparing him to, not to Riley Sheahan or Luke Glendening.

And if AA wanted it to be a bigger raise? He shouldn't be sitting in Switzerland right now. He's choosing to hold out for money and assumedly because he doesn't believe Blashill will use him enough. Even though statistics kinda show he played appropriate minutes for his spot on the roster. He wasn't one of the six best forwards on the roster.

 

[TCNorthstars]

$1.5M - 10% = $1.35M

A $100,000 increase.

Not even worth everyone's time for a conference call to make that offer.

That is some really shady math. The 10% is coming off from ANY offer, not just the 1.5. It is a 250,000 increase.

 

[Redder Winger]

That is some really shady math. The 10% is coming off from ANY offer, not just the 1.5. It is a 250,000 increase.

Those are real numbers.

 

[Redder Winger]

The eight games in which he averaged 13 minutes a night, with half of them being over 14 minutes?

How about we look from the trade deadline to the end of the season? 13:57 a night with several nights peeking over 16 mins a night.
Christmas to end of season, 13:59 a night, with again, several games a shade over 15.

AA can feel ******** about his usage all he wants. It's on him not showing enough of a discernable effort for the coaching staff. He wasn't getting 10 minutes a night. He wasn't shuffled off to a 4th line to rot. He played 14 minutes a night with the majority of his time involving a legitimately good NHL offensive linemate. You can think he deserved more time... but he is simply not as good a hockey player as the rest of the guys in Detroit's top 6. Not Sheahan or Jurco or Glendening... If you want to give AA more icetime, it would come at the expense of your top six guys... THAT is who you should be comparing him to, not to Riley Sheahan or Luke Glendening.

And if AA wanted it to be a bigger raise? He shouldn't be sitting in Switzerland right now. He's choosing to hold out for money and assumedly because he doesn't believe Blashill will use him enough. Even though statistics kinda show he played appropriate minutes for his spot on the roster. He wasn't one of the six best forwards on the roster.

Zetterberg.
Tatar.
Nyquist.
Athanasiou.

Best forwards.
And you can make the case that Athanasiou was as good as anyone but Zetterberg.

Throw in Vanek, too.

 

[Winger98]

If that's his worry he should've signed the 2 year and worked his ass off to get minutes. Guarantees money, sets QFO up better, gives him time to prove his worth.

I could see him signing 1x1.5 for sure though. Still think he ****ed himself, it's almost the old deal with the hold out.

Ups the qualifying offer for next year, and then probably easier to negotiate another one or two year deal north of the $1.9m Holland had been offering.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Zetterberg.
Tatar.
Nyquist.
Athanasiou.

Best forwards.
And you can make the case that Athanasiou was as good as anyone but Zetterberg.

Throw in Vanek, too.

1) Mantha had more points than AA in less games. 7 more points in 88 more minutes.
2) Vanek, who you tossed in as a "oh, him too" had 38 points in 48 games. He was WAY better than AA. Especially since Vanek literally had 30 seconds of ice time more a game than he did.

And no. You really really can't make that case. In his best games last year? Sure. AA was one of the best players on the ice. That's literally what the entire Wings coaching staff, front office, and the entirety of this board has said over and over. AA has legit star potential. He has fantastic physical tools. However, you're not just judged by your best games or what you might be able to do. Too many times last year he either vanished or was very evident for the wrong reasons.

Again, look at any of the stuff about Mantha. He was plagued by the "lack of effort and compete level" tag, almost more than AA, to the point where Jimmy D publicly slammed him... in a season where he missed the first half of it with a broken leg. Holland publicly challenged him with the "spare parts" routine. Hell, Mike Green lit him the **** up during practice because he had his head in the clouds. But now, every conversation they ever have with him or with his teammates about him is centered on "Yeah, it wasn't ever learning to try hard, you just have to try hard. We know the professional effort you need to put forth to be a force in this league."

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2017/03/red_wings_anthony_mantha_scrat.html

 

[TCNorthstars]

Those are real numbers.

You forgot half of your “real” numbers.

1.5*.9= 1.35
1.25*.9= 1.125

The difference is 225k, not 100k. These are real numbers.

 

[Redder Winger]

You forgot half of your “real” numbers.

1.5*.9= 1.35
1.25*.9= 1.125

The difference is 225k, not 100k. These are real numbers.

That's a matter of perspective.

But Athanasiou rejected $1.25M.
An offer of $1.35M isn't going to change his mind much, most likely.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

That's a matter of perspective.

But Athanasiou rejected $1.25M.
An offer of $1.35M isn't going to change his mind much, most likely.

When did he reject the 1.25? If that was before all the European teams rejected him he will take 1.35

 

[Ezekial]

Ups the qualifying offer for next year, and then probably easier to negotiate another one or two year deal north of the $1.9m Holland had been offering.

The 1.5 QFO is a helpful boost for sure, I'd be ecstatic if tomorrow morning at work I read he signed that deal. I'd be a little anxious thinking about the big 3 RFAs next year, but it will be interesting to see how they take care of that situation when/if it comes up.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I think he doesn't want to play in Detroit.

IMO, that's why he won't sign. Doesn't like his TOI, doesn't like his coach, and wants to be paid more to stay in a situation he doesn't like.

Again, MO.

 

[BinCookin]

Holland won't be here in 4-5 years when it's time for Athanasiou to get paid.

this is probably true.

I theorize that Ken Holland has basically all but planned his retirement this year. I don't think the replacement will be Draper (not ready) or Ryan Martin. So I imagine it is very likely to be an outsider selected to replace him.

 

[Shaman464]

this is probably true.

I theorize that Ken Holland has basically all but planned his retirement this year. I don't think the replacement will be Draper (not ready) or Ryan Martin. So I imagine it is very likely to be an outsider selected to replace him.

All I can hear is FSN announcing "Steve Yzerman has decided to return to Detroit".