ATD2020 Draft Thread III

[ImporterExporter]

I'm sure that happened, same with Ovechkin

Probably so.

I thought about McDavid as a 2nd liner here but I kept going back to past drafts and the push back against guys with such few games to their name. Active players are very volatile in how they are perceived. Now McD is certainly in a special category because he is so damn talented and has a strong regular season resume already. But there is absolutely no playoff record to look at. No critical games to really evaluate.

I generally say 500 games for active players is about the threshold for when I would consider them as legit top 6 and top 4 options.

But again, I'll wait to see how the finished product looks. I think that's the only fair thing to do.

 

[VanIslander]

I remember when I said 300 NHL games minimum for skaters should be an ATD rule and the Crosbyites pushed back HARD!

 

[ImporterExporter]

McDavid as a 4th line C in a 40 team draft, even with only 350ish games played? I think we all know that wasn’t going to happen. He was going to be on someone’s 2nd line even if we didn’t select him.

Yeah, no doubt. He was always going to be a 2nd liner in this draft. I just think him being isolated and sheltered a bit as a 4th liner would give him and a team a shot of offensive spark without exposing him to heavier minutes and stronger defensive players consistently.

But I'm certainly not going to trash the pick. I think his offensive value is certainly as good or better than a good number of the 2nd line C's here. Just have to surround him with the right people.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I think of McDavid as more of a 4th liner in the ATD right now. He belongs, i just don't know about top 6. His peak (he doesn't really have longevity yet given he his career isn't even at 350 games yet) is obviously great but there isn't enough body of work for me to make him a strong top 6 option yet.

As RB said, he's got a long way to go defensively (it will come in time most likely if he stays hungry) and he's very soft. Him going up against ATD top and 2nd pairings will be a lot different than beating up on current NHL defenses.

Had somebody tried to draft Crosby after 300+ games (didn't look it may have happened and Sid's first few years were very impressive as well) I am willing to bet he was pushed against very harshly. I don't think I'm being harsh in saying that McDavid is probably a stretch in the top 6.

But I'll wait to see how the entire team looks when completed. Linemates matter, coaching, strategy, etc.

Their team is incomplete so let's wait and see how the pieces fall.

I disagree with that, you're suggesting that there are 120 centers you'd take ahead of him.

In a 20 teamer sure, he'd probably be around there.

He belongs in a top 6-9 I'm just not sold on what his all time legacy will be if he retired today

 

[The Macho King]

As long as it is clear that a 36 year old Gartner is faster than Kucherov at any age, all is good.

Kucherov is fast though - lost to McDavid in fastest skater by about .1 seconds, and just beat MacKinnon in a foot race for a breakaway goal last week.

But you dont draft Kucherov to play fast. He plays pretty slow. He is patient, not a guy that goes 100mph a shift.

 

[BenchBrawl]

It's too early for McDavid IMO. We had this discussion with Karlsson a few years ago.

I'd rather a team draft one of the several full-career offensive centers still on board. I know they don't have his top end credentials but I don't care.

Now if McDavid had a few deep playoff runs to go along with his RS it would have been more excusable, but his lack of playoff record just reminds me that he's still a work-in-progress. His career is still about potential.

McDavid has 3 full seasons under his belt, and two partial ones. No playoff record. There are many centers who had 15+ years career that are still available.

Very unlike VanIslander to make such a move.

 

[Leaf Lander]

No,

He's played

45 games (broken collarbone in a bad hit by former teammate Brandon Manning)
82 games
82 games
78 games before he destroyed his leg on a fluke play

And has missed 5ish games this season.

Calling him injury prone is a straight up lie

Too bad maybe he will have a short career like bobby orr

Still too early for him to be selected in a top 6 role

 

[ResilientBeast]

Too bad maybe he will have a short career like bobby orr

Still too early for him to be selected in a top 6 role

If there was a freak injury and he needed to stop playing hockey (knock on wood) characterizing him as being "Injury prone" would be a lie

 

[MadArcand]

Is there even any reason why this antiquated practice with roots in older forum software is being followed?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

4 times 2nd Team All-Star, Bobby Bauer, RW

Bauer was the primary puck carrier and "playmaker" for the Kraut Line.

He missed 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others due to World War 2! Even if you take his career stats at face value (and why should you, no world war will break out in the middle of the ATD), he looks to be as good offensively as any RW left. Once you take into account the time lost to the war, I think he's the best offensive RW left by a fairly clear margin.

 

[Theokritos]

Is there even any reason why this antiquated practice with roots in older forum software is being followed?

From two years ago:

What is the purpose of this again? Isn't it convenient that you can now have one single draft thread for the 2018 ATD instead of multiple threads (Draft Thread I, Draft Thread II, Draft Thread III etc)?

As pointed out by jarek, searching a large thread with thousands of posts isn't much of an actual issue:

If you go to a thread, you can use the search at the top right and select "Search this thread only".

I realize there is a search function, but its easier to scroll through threads if they are separated.

But why scroll through threads if you can use the search function?

Sometimes i like skimming old threads

It’s also instructive to look over how conversations developed, how we reacted to things in real time, and how we arrived at conclusions/consensus.

Does it outweight the benefit of just having to search one thread via the search function as opposed searching 3-4 threads?

 

[ImporterExporter]

4 times 2nd Team All-Star, Bobby Bauer, RW

Bauer was the primary puck carrier and "playmaker" for the Kraut Line.

He missed 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others due to World War 2! Even if you take his career stats at face value (and why should you, no world war will break out in the middle of the ATD), he looks to be as good offensively as any RW left. Once you take into account the time lost to the war, I think he's the best offensive RW left by a fairly clear margin.

I feel like you're picking the same players from last year!

Good bump. He should go inside 400 easily.

 

[The Macho King]

4 times 2nd Team All-Star, Bobby Bauer, RW

Bauer was the primary puck carrier and "playmaker" for the Kraut Line.

He missed 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others due to World War 2! Even if you take his career stats at face value (and why should you, no world war will break out in the middle of the ATD), he looks to be as good offensively as any RW left. Once you take into account the time lost to the war, I think he's the best offensive RW left by a fairly clear margin.

You don't know that for sure!

 

[BenchBrawl]

4 times 2nd Team All-Star, Bobby Bauer, RW

Bauer was the primary puck carrier and "playmaker" for the Kraut Line.

He missed 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others due to World War 2! Even if you take his career stats at face value (and why should you, no world war will break out in the middle of the ATD), he looks to be as good offensively as any RW left. Once you take into account the time lost to the war, I think he's the best offensive RW left by a fairly clear margin.

VsX7 of 80 is his real value IMO.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Here's an analysis I did of WWII's effect on Bauer's VsX score a few years ago:

(This also show that Gilbert and Cournoyer were most likely disadvantaged from the Espo-Orr benchmarks)

So about Bobby Bauer and his VsX 7 years score.I did something quick this morning, in good faith, if mistakes were introduced they wouldn't change the overall picture.

I checked the difference between the VsX7 and VsX5 scores of many drafted wingers who have a VsX7 score in the 74-83 range.I might have forgot some, but again, irrelevent and I didn't choose them on purpose to massage the numbers in my favor.I think they speak for themselves as it is.

Here are the results ordered by difference.

winger	VsX7	VsX5	Diff
hextall sr	80.9	91.2	10.3
bauer	74.6	84.4	9.8
benn	78.4	86.9	8.5
thompson	82.6	88.9	6.3
goulet	79.3	85.6	6.3
naslund	82.9	88.9	6
lewis	75	80.9	5.9
rousseau	75.5	81.3	5.8
olmstead	75.9	81.4	5.5
elias	78.9	84.2	5.3
joliat	82.6	87.7	5.1
palffy	80.1	85	4.9
leclair	81.7	86.3	4.6
perry	75	79.6	4.6
heatley	81	85.5	4.5
mogilny	77.7	82	4.3
d.sedin	79.9	83.9	4
alfredsson	82.3	85.7	3.4
shanahan	79	82.2	3.2
hossa	82.4	85.3	2.9
gottselig	74.8	77.4	2.6
fleury	82	84.6	2.6
tkachuk	79	81.6	2.6
gilbert	83.1	85.6	2.5
dillon	78.1	80.4	2.3
cournoyer	77.1	78.9	1.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So clearly, Bauer is the player getting screwed the most.Benn has an awesome peak, but the reason his difference is so high is because he didn't play long enough yet.He doesn't have the excuse of missing many prime years due to a World War.He should join the pack in Diff after this year unless injured.As for Hextall Sr, his peak is just very high, and he fell off a cliff (but before the war, and he never returned to his form after the year he missed, as opposed to Bauer, who did).

In the 5 years where he was affected or absent due to the war, Bauer was 26-27-28-29-30 years old, absolute prime years for a player.

If you really want to compare Bauer on the VsX7 scale, I would reduce his difference to some sort of average Diff, thus increasing his VsX7 score to reduce the gap.That would put him around 79-80, exactly like my gut feeling told me yesterday, and something Dreakmur actually compared to saying Sakic is better than Gretzky offensively.Yeah, right.

​

 

[rmartin65]

VsX7 of 80 is his real value IMO.

Nah, this is a projection. His 7 year VsX is what it is. I agree that it is an unfair measure of his ability, so I think comparisons with/against Bauer should be done (with all players) at VsX 5 or 6.

We don't reward players for things that they didn't do or haven't done yet, no matter how unfair the situation may be.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Nah, this is a projection. His 7 year VsX is what it is. I agree that it is an unfair measure of his ability, so I think comparisons with/against Bauer should be done (with all players) at VsX 5 or 6.

We don't reward players for things that they didn't do or haven't done yet, no matter how unfair the situation may be.

I only care about VsX7 because others do, which forces me to care to that extent. I don't disagree.

I think VsX has been severely abused and overused in recent years. It was necessary circa 2013 but it has become an ugly thing often times since then.

 

[Dreakmur]

McDavid is probably a decent offensive option for a second line. I’d be surprised if it was the best remaining, but it’s probably close now. His offensive production is really dragged down by injuries and lack of longevity. In a 7 season vs.x score, he has to work with two 0s, which hurts a lot.

As others have mentioned, that offense has to outweigh a lot of other issues.

He’s probably the worst defensive player selected so far.

He’s probably the worst faceoff man selected so far.

He has no physical game. He has very little playoff success. No significant international resume.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think either way, Bauer is somebody who shouldn't go this far behind Herbie Lewis. IMO.

 

[rmartin65]

I only care about VsX7 because others do, which forces me to care to that extent. I don't disagree.

I think VsX has been severely abused and overused in recent years. It was necessary circa 2013 but it has become an ugly thing often times since then.

Then change it. If the person who has Bauer does his comparisons using 5/6 or whatever, then that becomes a factor for voters. I am against projection in the ATD.

 

[ImporterExporter]

McDavid is probably a decent offensive option for a second line. I’d be surprised if it was the best remaining, but it’s probably close now. His offensive production is really dragged down by injuries and lack of longevity. In a 7 season vs.x score, he has to work with two 0s, which hurts a lot.

As others have mentioned, that offense has to outweigh a lot of other issues.

He’s probably the worst defensive player selected so far.

He’s probably the worst faceoff man selected so far.

He has no physical game. He has very little playoff success. No significant international resume.

Going back to all of that led me to not considering him for my 2nd line ultimately. Just a lot of question marks in voters minds.

And what IS his 7 year Vsx? It can't be good.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Then change it. If the person who has Bauer does his comparisons using 5/6 or whatever, then that becomes a factor for voters. I am against projection in the ATD.

I'm not a King who can change people's thoughts and habits just by deciding so.

It takes a lot of time to combat such things, and I try to do it here and there.

 

[The Macho King]

Nah, this is a projection. His 7 year VsX is what it is. I agree that it is an unfair measure of his ability, so I think comparisons with/against Bauer should be done (with all players) at VsX 5 or 6.

We don't reward players for things that they didn't do or haven't done yet, no matter how unfair the situation may be.

I give a lot of credit to players who missed time to serve in WW2 versus what I do for an injury. For instance - I would consider Bauer's VsX5 score equivalent to a non-war impacted player's VsX7 or whatever. He went to serve his country against an existential threat. I can't manufacture accomplishments he didn't have, but I can certainly put more weight on the accomplishments he *did* have.

Bauer should have been taken about 100 picks ago, and certainly before a player like Kucherov. Steal of the draft so far IMO.

 

[The Macho King]

McDavid is probably a decent offensive option for a second line. I’d be surprised if it was the best remaining, but it’s probably close now. His offensive production is really dragged down by injuries and lack of longevity. In a 7 season vs.x score, he has to work with two 0s, which hurts a lot.

As others have mentioned, that offense has to outweigh a lot of other issues.

He’s probably the worst defensive player selected so far.

He’s probably the worst faceoff man selected so far.

He has no physical game. He has very little playoff success. No significant international resume.

I'm assuming you're referring to Centers, because I can think of a whole lot of other players who I rate similarly low in defensive ability as McDavid.

But yeah, McDavid is trash defensively.

 

[BenchBrawl]

There's also a bit of a tyranny of insisting we judge players strictly on "what happened". The pure, cold historical facts; the events as they unfolded.

That's one way to look at things, another is the following example:

Imagine two teams A and B from different planets facing each others for the first time. They have no knowledge of each other whatsoever.

All players on Team A have an excellent slapshot.

The series goes on and for whatever reason no one on Team A ever takes a slapshot or even fakes one as a threat.

Team A wins the series.

Now imagine the same Team A, but such that all their players have a mediocre slapshot.

Going strictly by "what happened", both Team A's are equivalent, which is nonesense. You ought to take into consideration what could have happened to some extent. Maybe out of a million simulations of that series, the excellent vs. mediocre slapshot is crucial to the outcome in 200 000 of them.