ATD Chat Thread XVII

[VanIslander]

Within 300 km of me, 45 people have died of the coronovirus in the last few weeks.

I am 51 years old with aches and pains, not feelin' young or strong.

It ain't hysteria.

 

[ImporterExporter]

When you realize that death is just not that interesting and we're all going to end up there at some point, life becomes inherently easier.

You're much more likely to die driving somewhere than a damn virus.

I personally have no interest in becoming old, decrepit, relying on people who don't give a shit about me in the first place, wiping my ass. If I can't do that, just put me in the ground.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

This coronavirus is pure hysteria. Nothing more.

I feel for @VanIslander and his situation there in South Korea, where they have roughly the combined population of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey enclosed in an area smaller than the state of Kentucky. I think that here in the USA, though, we're bidding fair to race to the point of counter-productive panic.

One of our Leadership Team members, @Fenway , has posted some valuable material, and his recent posts on the topic are worth a read.

We should see to it that knowledge and common-sense get a leg up on fear and ignorance.

Say you're here in America, and you start to feel a virus take hold in your respiratory tract.
19 times out of 20, it's the Common Cold.
Perhaps as high as 3 times out of every 100, it's The Flu- and that's not good. However, you'll probably (i.e. 99+% of the time) live.
The odds of your virus being something other than cold or flu are still quite remote.

Two possible positive results from the news- 1) people's added caution may result in reduced spread of cold and flu. [Hooray for that, if it happens!]

...And 2) everybody take a break from hand-shaking and the ridiculous-looking fist-bumping, and bring back the old-school forearm-bash! Society would benefit from that, too!!

 

[ImporterExporter]

I feel for @VanIslander and his situation there in South Korea, where they have roughly the combined population of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey enclosed in an area smaller than the state of Kentucky. I think that here in the USA, though, we're bidding fair to race to the point of counter-productive panic.

One of our Leadership Team members, @Fenway , has posted some valuable material, and his recent posts on the topic are worth a read.

We should see to it that knowledge and common-sense get a leg up on fear and ignorance.

Say you're here in America, and you start to feel a virus take hold in your respiratory tract.
19 times out of 20, it's the Common Cold.
Perhaps as high as 3 times out of every 100, it's The Flu- and that's not good. However, you'll probably (i.e. 99+% of the time) live.
The odds of your virus being something other than cold or flu are still quite remote.

Two possible positive results from the news- 1) people's added caution may result in reduced spread of cold and flu. [Hooray for that, if it happens!]

...And 2) everybody take a break from hand-shaking and the ridiculous-looking fist-bumping, and bring back the old-school forearm-bash! Society would benefit from that, too!!

Agree completely.

I am not convinced this was an organic virus, especially with how tight Xi has tightened his grip on literally every aspect of society in China. I think things were much worse there than reported, well because, in a nation like China, information is much harder to come by, given the state controls basically all of it.

As it pertains to the US, it's obviously the new norm for yellow journalism and hysteria to reign supreme. It equals viewership, and that in turn = profits. Not to mention a lot of people have a very real desire to bring down Trump so this is probably the last "best" chance to throw the economy into possible shambles or worse yet see many deaths. Not that any of it is a Trump's fault (just as the Swine flu wasn't Obama's fault). But we live in an age where the worst of the worst (politicians) use anything, including a possible pandemic to stir up fear.

I'm not making light of the deaths or hardships this has caused on some people, but folks should remember that the regular flu kills TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE EVERY YEAR IN THE US ALONE.

I'm not advocating we not take serious precautions but I absolutely cannot believe how many people I see wearing face masks, not even realizing that they are meant to keep sickness in, not keep it out. Unless you're using a respirator with a charcoal type filter system, you're not keeping an airborne virus out.

Go about your lives. Life is too damn short to worry about something that has a much less likely chance of killing you than other normal day activities.

 

[Habsfan18]

At age 23, Connor McDavid is already nearing 500 career points. He currently sits at 468. He likely would have already hit it if not for his injury shortened rookie season.

 

[ResilientBeast]

An interesting stat showing Draisaitl's importance to the team - the Oilers record when he scores X points:

• 3 or more: 14-0-0 (undefeated)
• 2 points: 12-4-2 (72.2%)
• 1 point: 10-10-3 (50.0%)
• Scoreless: 0-9-3 (12.5%)

Through 67 games (including the one that just ended a few minutes ago), the Oilers have zero wins when Draisaitl is scoreless.

Have there been any instances in NHL history when a team is winless when one of their top forwards is held scoreless? I've found only one so far. In 1991, the Nordiques had 19 losses and one tie in Joe Sakic's 20 scoreless games. (That team was so bad, they only managed to go 4-4-4 when Sakic scored 3+ points).

(EDIT - a few examples that I looked at - ie superstar on a terrible team - included Lemieux in 1988 and 1989, Gretzky in 1994, Jagr in 1999, Bure in 2001, and Iginla in 2002).

This streak is now broken with our win last night

Honestly - it's not that the *team* is bad behind him (although it absolutely is) - it's that the offense flows 100% through him and McDavid (and they often share points, so one's success reflects on the other). On top of that, in OT - if those two ain't scoring, no one on the Oilers is.

I don't know - there are bad teams, and there's how Edmonton is built. I don't remember such a... poorly constructed roster. Credit to Holland on getting at least a couple of NHL players, but man they're just terrible outside of two players.

Uh, I totally disagree it's not shocking when the teams best two players and two of the top 5 in the world aren't producing the team isn't as successful. They don't share points now except on the PP or OT since they are on entirely separate but successful lines

Our team is headlined by those two, but we have legitimate top 6 and 9 players. Our depth is greatly improved over years past and our defence while leaky is finally NHL caliber.

I think you need to watch us more

I don't put much weight into corsica's position and line rankings but even they think our forward group is passable

Team Line Combinations - Daily Faceoff

 

[seventieslord]

An interesting stat showing Draisaitl's importance to the team - the Oilers record when he scores X points:

• 3 or more: 14-0-0 (undefeated)
• 2 points: 12-4-2 (72.2%)
• 1 point: 10-10-3 (50.0%)
• Scoreless: 0-9-3 (12.5%)

Through 67 games (including the one that just ended a few minutes ago), the Oilers have zero wins when Draisaitl is scoreless.

Have there been any instances in NHL history when a team is winless when one of their top forwards is held scoreless? I've found only one so far. In 1991, the Nordiques had 19 losses and one tie in Joe Sakic's 20 scoreless games. (That team was so bad, they only managed to go 4-4-4 when Sakic scored 3+ points).

(EDIT - a few examples that I looked at - ie superstar on a terrible team - included Lemieux in 1988 and 1989, Gretzky in 1994, Jagr in 1999, Bure in 2001, and Iginla in 2002).

I'm never quite sure what to make of stats like these. Do they actually indicate anything about the importance of a specific player, or do they just demonstrate that if a team scores 3+ goals, they're more likely to come out with a win than if they score 2, which is more likely than if they score 1, and so on.

When Draisaitl scores 3 points, the Oilers have at least three goals. Probably four or five most of the time. So of course they're going to win most or all of those games. When he has none, the team may have anywhere from 0 to 8 goals, but it's likely on the low side: 1 or 2. It's not surprising that they usually lose those games.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I'm never quite sure what to make of stats like these. Do they actually indicate anything about the importance of a specific player, or do they just demonstrate that if a team scores 3+ goals, they're more likely to come out with a win than if they score 2, which is more likely than if they score 1, and so on.

When Draisaitl scores 3 points, the Oilers have at least three goals. Probably four or five most of the time. So of course they're going to win most or all of those games. When he has none, the team may have anywhere from 0 to 8 goals, but it's likely on the low side: 1 or 2. It's not surprising that they usually lose those games.

The beauty of stats with no added context.
The Oilers win 400% more often when Draisaitl gets at least a point, while the Bruins win (?) more often when Pastrnak gets a point.
Without a number in place of that (?), it doesn't go much further than what you posted.

 

[VanIslander]

Note: That big 4-goal game for D was not so great given two of them were pile'on extra insurance goals yet McD assisted on the first two goals and scored the GWG.

 

[Dreakmur]

110 points, but still a -5

 

[ImporterExporter]

I can't for the life of me understand how Ovechkin is a -14 on a team that is +26 overall.

That's a 40 goal swing.

I know OV is piss poor defensively, but holy smokes.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I can't for the life of me understand how Ovechkin is a -14 on a team that is +26 overall.

That's a 40 goal swing.

I know OV is piss poor defensively, but holy smokes.

Some needed context - Washington is actually +17 at even strength and OV is a -4. A 21 goal swing.
The fact that he was on ice for a bunch of shorthanded goals that counted towards his +/- and a boatload of powerplay goals that didn't count is added noise that makes +/- not very useful by itself.

 

[VanIslander]

Some coaches put best on best.

Part of the reason why Krejci was twice the NHL leader in plus-minus was because the coach put Bergeron out against the top opposition.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Some needed context - Washington is actually +17 at even strength and OV is a -4. A 21 goal swing.
The fact that he was on ice for a bunch of shorthanded goals that counted towards his +/- and a boatload of powerplay goals that didn't count is added noise that makes +/- not very useful by itself.

Like

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I'm never quite sure what to make of stats like these. Do they actually indicate anything about the importance of a specific player, or do they just demonstrate that if a team scores 3+ goals, they're more likely to come out with a win than if they score 2, which is more likely than if they score 1, and so on.

When Draisaitl scores 3 points, the Oilers have at least three goals. Probably four or five most of the time. So of course they're going to win most or all of those games. When he has none, the team may have anywhere from 0 to 8 goals, but it's likely on the low side: 1 or 2. It's not surprising that they usually lose those games.

For many (most?) star players, you see results pretty similar to this. With most players in the modern league, their team will be close to undefeated when they score 3+ points (simply because it means their team scored 3+ goals).

Looking up a few examples quickly, and not bothering to distinguish between reg/OT/SO losses, Crosby's team is 136-8 when he scores 3+ points, Ovechkin's is 97-7, Kane's is 73-8, McDavid's is 45-6.

But what I found impressive was, up until last night, the Oilers were winless when Draisaitl was scoreless. I haven't done an exhaustive search but that appears to be extremely rare - for a team to not win a single game when one of their top forwards is shut down. Maybe it's not overly surprising (a bad team lacking depth losses when one of their two best players is shut down - because if his line is scoring, who else will?) but it was (up until yesterday) a very rare "achievement".

 

[tinyzombies]

Poking around influenza stories from back in the day and stumbled on this (the NHL was one month away):

"With a view to making it easier for spectators to learn when a goal is scored it was suggested that a red light be placed over each goal, with a switch to be, worked by the goal umpire, and red light to be turned on when a goal is won, and left burning until the puck is faced again at center ice. This will probably be done." - The Quebec Chronicle, October 23, 1917 (NHA news)

 

[tinyzombies]

And there was a Fred Kovalchuk who played in the Quebec Senior League in 1949. The story of Hy Buller is interesting too - career AHLer, he eventually made the Rangers and was runner up for the Calder and was a 2nd team all-star and scored 12 goals from D.

 

[Dreakmur]

And there was a Fred Kovalchuk who played in the Quebec Senior League in 1949. The story of Hy Buller is interesting too - career AHLer, he eventually made the Rangers and was runner up for the Calder and was a 2nd team all-star and scored 12 goals from D.

He was possibly held back due to his heritage.

 

[tinyzombies]

His granddaughter said she would ask but never came back to follow up on what she learned.

 

[ImporterExporter]

NBA suspended the season. NHL can't be far behind at this point, sadly.

I sent Tony a message on FB as well.

 

[BenchBrawl]

NBA suspended the season. NHL can't be far behind at this point, sadly.

I sent Tony a message on FB as well.

It's a done deal IMO. They have no choice, this thing is about to take over North America by storm.

 

[VanIslander]

Glad to see you're doing great back there. This is a serious situation.

I am living in fear. No work this week, the last two weeks, nor next week. A thousand dollars to my name and a hope and a prayer that the 23rd of March date for school and academy re-openings goes through. Yeah, I am an hour from Daegu, the epicenter of the huge Korean outbreak (gets less CNN coverage than Italy for some reason). I don't fear getting infected, i fear losing my job. My two 6-year-old Angora cats i take care of and complicate options. I await word anxiously... yeah doing greeeaaattt!

 

[BenchBrawl]

I am living in fear. No work this week, the last two weeks, nor next week. A thousand dollars to my name and a hope and a prayer that the 23rd of March date for school and academy re-openings goes through. Yeah, I am an hour from Daegu, the epicenter of the huge Korean outbreak (gets less CNN coverage than Italy for some reason). I don't fear getting infected, i fear losing my job. My two 6-year-old Angora cats i take care of and complicate options. I await word anxiously... yeah doing greeeaaattt!

Sorry to hear that VanI. Hopefully you can get back to work.

If not, is there anything you can do? Maybe try to get back to Canada?

 

[tinyzombies]

Who wins the awards and makes the AS teams if the NHL suspended the season today?

 

[Dreakmur]

Who wins the awards and makes the AS teams if the NHL suspended the season today?

Artemi Panarin gets the Hart.
John Carlson gets the Norris.
Ryan O'Rielly gets the Selke.
Vasilevskiy gets the Vezina.

1st all-stars..... Panarin-Draisaitl-Pastrnak-Josi-Carlson-Vasilievskiy
2nd all-stars..... Marhand-McDavid-Kucherov-Hedman-Pietrangelo-Hellebuyck