Prospect Info: At 20th Overall the Wild Select Jesper Wallstedt

[Puhis]

Yeah, he's a goalie. He's also an 18-year old starter in Europe's 2nd best league. If you're taking a gamble, that was certainly the time to do so - and he dropped so far, too.

By all accounts, his head is in the right place, he's got decent size, and all the tools. I really like it, and I was hoping for Lysell.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Dubnyk, Mccollum, Campbell, Visentin, Subban, Pickard, Bernier, Helenius, Irving, Montoya, Schwarz

You can triple the list if you look at first 10 picks in second round of goalies that "dropped".

 

[Taylor26]

Guy playing against men in the shl. Put up great numbers the first half of the year. Tailed of a bit in the second half of the year from what I hear yet as a 18 year old. Looked decent in the WJC.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Risk reduction says it’s not a good idea. But, if a scout has conviction in a pick and you have faith in the scout, you shouldn’t let historical data play too much into the picture if you believe in the talent. JMO.

 

[Taylor26]

From what I hear he was in the same consideration as 1st rd picks lately as Knight and Askarov. Cossa went before him so there is that?

 

[123TripleDoge]

Askarov or this guy?

 

[Jbcraig1883]

In Judd I trust until I don't, haha.

Usually hate goalies in 1st round but 20th pick in a weird year on a goalie that some equated to Knight/Askarov value, I'm in.

 

[AKL]

Well, I'll be cheering for him.

 

[JP Flow]

 

[Al Lagoon]

First goalie picked by the Wild in the 1st in the 21 years they've been drafting.

Some might say about time.

1/21 is a pretty good ratio.

 

[TaLoN]

Hate picking goalies in the 1st...

 

[Wabit]

Hate picking goalies in the 1st...

Me too, but I guess in this weird draft class and having another pick within a few spots is the time to do it. At least the pick is in the "steal" and not the "reach" category on draft day.

 

[TaLoN]

Me too, but I guess in this weird draft class and having another pick within a few spots is the time to do it. At least the pick is in the "steal" and not the "reach" category on draft day.

I get that... but still would MUCH prefer 2 skaters... I am just against 1st round goaltenders period.

Goaltending is important, but you don't want to get saddled with a top paid goaltender someday either. The value in general just isn't there cap-wise. Goaltending is just overall, the easiest spot to fill since there are so few per roster and the overall results gap from one player to another is no where near the ability gap.

 

[Wabit]

I get that... but still would MUCH prefer 2 skaters... I am just against 1st round goaltenders period.

Goaltending is important, but you don't want to get saddled with a top paid goaltender someday either. The value in general just isn't there cap-wise. Goaltending is just overall, the easiest spot to fill since there are so few per roster and the overall results gap from one player to another is no where near the ability gap.

I'm less worried about a potential huge goalie cap hit in 5+ years compared to having a busted a 1st rounder in 5+ years.

 

[TaLoN]

I'm less worried about a potential huge goalie cap hit in 5+ years compared to having a busted a 1st rounder in 5+ years.

I am concerned with both, and overall... 1st round goalies bust at a far higher rate than 1st round skaters.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Goalies in the 1st…pure luck.
They develop 5-7 years before they are ready.
But, on the bright side, this might have been the year to risk suck a pick, because nobody was able to scout most of the players.
There might be more good NHLers in the later rounds than in the 1st round.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I will say, if you narrow down '1st round goalies' to 'European 1st round goalies' it seems to get a lot better.

You're looking at ~50% starters and ~25% stars over the last 20 years.

And yes, this is probably a little bit of a case of looking for an answer that I want.

 

[Al Lagoon]

They bust more often than not, but at 20, with another pick to come, I like the pick. Truly great goaltending is a rare thing, and I'd take that chance, especially after reading the thread in the draft forum on him that started when he was 14.

G Jesper Wallstedt - Luleå HF J20, SuperElit (2021, 20th, MIN)

 

[Spurgeon]

I just feel like the goalie position is one where you don’t even want to commit a lot of money to begin with. Since there are only two positions available on a roster, there’s a huge supply out there of budget goalies that will provide you with nearly the same level of play as highly paid ones. Giving a goalie a large contract usually just eats into your cap that would be better spent elsewhere, same applies to draft picks.

Maybe he gives us a few solid ELC years though.

 

[AKL]

I will say, if you narrow down '1st round goalies' to 'European 1st round goalies' it seems to get a lot better.

You're looking at ~50% starters and ~25% stars over the last 20 years.

And yes, this is probably a little bit of a case of looking for an answer that I want.

Like we said earlier, if we were going to end up with a goalie, at this point, I'm much happier it's Wallstedt than Cossa.

I don't want to come off as too negative about the player, because I think he's an excellent prospect. In terms of getting a top 10 ranked prospect at 20, potentially the best player of the class, etc, you love to get that kind of piece at 20. He could be a legit top 10 goalie in the league in his day. There's certainly value in that. I just don't think it's hard to get something just a little bit worse for a lot less investment later on.

The other angle here I've been thinking about is that, we're not going to have an elite defensive core in his time here, most likely, like we've had for the last decade. So we may need to rely on a good goaltender a little more than we're used to. So this could be a really useful player for us.

Like I said earlier, I'm really cheering for him. Like YOU said earlier, this is a far better path than Knight over Boldy or Askarov over Rossi.

My other thought on this is that getting a player like Lambos at 26 really softens the blow.

Overall, this is still much, much better than our 2018 first round.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I just feel like the goalie position is one where you don’t even want to commit a lot of money to begin with. Since there are only two positions available on a roster, there’s a huge supply out there of budget goalies that will provide you with nearly the same level of play as highly paid ones. Giving a goalie a large contract usually just eats into your cap that would be better spent elsewhere, same applies to draft picks.

Maybe he gives us a few solid ELC years though.

I somewhat disagree. For a majority of goaltenders, yes. If you get an upper echelon goaltender, they’re often worth it. Would Tampa have won with Talbot? Mike Smith?

 

[Circulartheory]

I willed this pick into existence.

 

[TaLoN]

I willed this pick into existence.

 

[Wabit]

I am concerned with both, and overall... 1st round goalies bust at a far higher rate than 1st round skaters.

I think goalies need many more things to go "right" than skaters do to be NHL players. It's also a much smaller pool to pick from, with maybe 1 goalie a year on average picked in the 1st. There is what 380 FWDs, 190 d-men, and 64 goalies in the NHL? Heck even add in another 30 skaters as the pressboxers on the rosters. So that is 600 NHL skaters, compared to 64 goalies.

This is going to be a 100% a hindsight is 20/20 pick in 10 years. I'm meh on it currently. I don't love it, and I don't hate it. I also don't have a "we should have taken this guy instead" drum to bang either. All I can do now is hope the kid does well and lives up to his draft spot/hype.

 

[Wabit]

I just feel like the goalie position is one where you don’t even want to commit a lot of money to begin with. Since there are only two positions available on a roster, there’s a huge supply out there of budget goalies that will provide you with nearly the same level of play as highly paid ones. Giving a goalie a large contract usually just eats into your cap that would be better spent elsewhere, same applies to draft picks.

Maybe he gives us a few solid ELC years though.

It depends on what you mean by big money. $10m like Price/Bob/Vas is a huge mistake imo. If you're spending $5m-$6m ($80m+ cap) on a legitimate top tier starter. who can carry you then it's not so bad. I also think you're overestimating the number of quality goalies out there. I can name maybe 15 I'd want as my starter, another 10-12 I'd want as my backup. The rest are not what if I had asperations of winning a Cup.

There isn't a lot of turnover in net from consistently quality teams. The turnover in net is from the fringe teams always looking to get into that top tier of team. It's the Kemps/Backy, Dub/Stalock, and the year Harding was lost that you can look to and say the keepers were the major weak spot on the team argument.