Prospect Info: At 16th Overall the Rangers Select Brennan Othmann

Amazing Kreiderman

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Apr 11, 2011
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I'm assuming there is some kind of scale depending on the league, age, etc. So 1.5 P/GP in JRs might scale to .5 P/GP in another league. Guess it's saying he should've been able to score more in the Swiss league to show growth.

My biggest gripe with these kinds of charts is that they are posted with such conviction and almost never revisited. This guy posts his chart and suddenly the hockey world hates our pick.

It is but the data used for the formula here is, at best, inconclusive.

Christian Dubé: 1 game played, 0 points in 1994-95
Mathieu Magnenat: 2 games played, 0 points in 2010-11

That's your benchmark for North American players in SL in their draft year going back to 1955
 
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Ruggs225

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It is but the data used for the formula here is, at best, inconclusive.

Christian Dubé: 1 game played, 0 points in 1994-95
Mathieu Magnenat: 2 games played, 0 points in 2010-11

That's your benchmark for North American players in SL in their draft year going back to 1955

i remember Dube being a highly touted prospect. I remember creating him in my NHL games.

what is dont remember is what happened to him? He put up great points in the AHL but it seems that he barely got a real chance in the NHL and then went off to Europe.

what happened?
 

Thirty One

Safe is safe.
Dec 28, 2003
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I know a lot of people didn't like this pick. I don't scout and do not pretend to watch JR games other than the WJC. What didn't they like about him, and 2 were those concerns largely squashed with his great start to the season?
Much of the uproar seemed to be based on him being a winger. So I don't know. He's still a winger. I liked the pick.
 
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GAGLine

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Sep 17, 2007
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It is but the data used for the formula here is, at best, inconclusive.

Christian Dubé: 1 game played, 0 points in 1994-95
Mathieu Magnenat: 2 games played, 0 points in 2010-11

That's your benchmark for North American players in SL in their draft year going back to 1955

What about all the swiss players in that league in their draft year? How does Othmann's production compare? Not that I think those models are worth anything, but it's a more fair comparison than looking at non-swiss players.

Either way, I never understood why anyone took that tweet seriously. Who the hell is Patrick Bacon? Kid doesn't even look old enough to buy alcohol, yet some people took his opinion as though it's gospel.
 
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nyr2k2

Can't Beat Him
Jul 30, 2005
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I'm assuming there is some kind of scale depending on the league, age, etc. So 1.5 P/GP in JRs might scale to .5 P/GP in another league. Guess it's saying he should've been able to score more in the Swiss league to show growth.

My biggest gripe with these kinds of charts is that they are posted with such conviction and almost never revisited. This guy posts his chart and suddenly the hockey world hates our pick.
Yeah, the problem with his projection is that you need to find enough comparable players--age, playing history, etc.--to actually build a model. How many guys played a year in the CHL and then played in the second-tier Swiss league at age 17? It has to be a very, very small number. Like, infinitesimally small, and not anything you could build a model from. Even if you just wanted to look at drafted prospects who played their age-17 season in that league, it's a very small number; but because he talks about scoring growth you must consider the league he was in previously. It's just not possible, IMO, to build a model that would accurately project a player like Othmann given his unusual playing path.
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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Take a Wild Guess
Thank you guys!
I'm assuming there is some kind of scale depending on the league, age, etc. So 1.5 P/GP in JRs might scale to .5 P/GP in another league. Guess it's saying he should've been able to score more in the Swiss league to show growth.

My biggest gripe with these kinds of charts is that they are posted with such conviction and almost never revisited. This guy posts his chart and suddenly the hockey world hates our pick.

Much of the uproar seemed to be based on him being a winger. So I don't know. He's still a winger. I liked the pick.
 
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DudMan28

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It is but the data used for the formula here is, at best, inconclusive.

Christian Dubé: 1 game played, 0 points in 1994-95
Mathieu Magnenat: 2 games played, 0 points in 2010-11

That's your benchmark for North American players in SL in their draft year going back to 1955

Yeah, not great. You can probably just remove age and go based on how the SL is viewed compared to other leagues. i.e 1 point in SL is equal to 0.5 points in SEL regardless of age. Then just look at league adjusted P/GP and see where they fall on the scale. Throw a covid wrench in the middle of all this and it's even harder to project
 
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Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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Take a Wild Guess
Absent of any figures to make an accurate model, I just do not get how in good conscious you can compare a 16-year-old in JR's to a 17-year-old in a SR league and glean anything useful to make a determination without having watched them play.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman

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Apr 11, 2011
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What about all the swiss players in that league in their draft year? How does Othmann's production compare? Not that I think those models are worth anything, but it's a more fair comparison than looking at non-swiss players.

Either way, I never understood why anyone took that tweet seriously. Who the hell is Patrick Bacon? Kid doesn't even look old enough to buy alcohol, yet some people took his opinion as though it's gospel.

upload_2021-12-18_0-55-33.png
 
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Amazing Kreiderman

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Absent of any figures to make an accurate model, I just do not get how in good conscious you can compare a 16-year-old in JR's to a 17-year-old in a SR league and glean anything useful to make a determination without having watched them play.

This... I hate to be a "watch them play" guy but Patrick Bacon really has not seen Othmann play a single game. I can guarantee you that.
 

bleedblue94

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Jun 8, 2004
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i remember Dube being a highly touted prospect. I remember creating him in my NHL games.

what is dont remember is what happened to him? He put up great points in the AHL but it seems that he barely got a real chance in the NHL and then went off to Europe.

what happened?
If I remember correctly at the time there was a lot of concern if he could play in the NHL bc of his size and the way the NHL game was played at the time. I believe he ended up putting like 20lbs of muscle on one summer and his speed advantage completely disintegrated which destroyed the strengths and uniqueness of his game for the times. After that he never seemed to find himself again.
 

egelband

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Yeah, I’m not picturing a written test. I think there are on ice situational things that you can put kids into to assess their awareness.
They say the heart rate thing is kind of a gauge of - if not processing speed - at least a gauge of whether or not they can do their thing under pressure.
 
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egelband

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Yeah, the problem with his projection is that you need to find enough comparable players--age, playing history, etc.--to actually build a model. How many guys played a year in the CHL and then played in the second-tier Swiss league at age 17? It has to be a very, very small number. Like, infinitesimally small, and not anything you could build a model from. Even if you just wanted to look at drafted prospects who played their age-17 season in that league, it's a very small number; but because he talks about scoring growth you must consider the league he was in previously. It's just not possible, IMO, to build a model that would accurately project a player like Othmann given his unusual playing path.
I think that with young amateur kids, stats are almost meaningless. These guys are evolving so rapidly that the stats from yesterday are referring to an almost completely different player. (Im exaggerating, of course). But really I would rely more on a report from a scout that has seen the player play a number of times over a million stats. Diagnostic stats though might be of some more value but I have no idea what’s available in that regard.
 
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egelband

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Sep 6, 2008
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I think he gets to the spots he needs to get to in order to be successful.

The skating is just fine, especially because he has a nose for positioning. In other words he's not out there skating in circles trying to figure out where he needs to be offensively.

He'll get bigger, he'll get stronger, he'll get faster. But his positioning and his ability to get his shot off is what is going to drive his success.
I always worry more about a players position and “nose for the puck” rather than speed. Wayne Gretzky was not a burner but he went to the right place first. That’s the key. If raw speed were a huge deal Michael Grabner would have all the records :)
 

Ruggs225

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If I remember correctly at the time there was a lot of concern if he could play in the NHL bc of his size and the way the NHL game was played at the time. I believe he ended up putting like 20lbs of muscle on one summer and his speed advantage completely disintegrated which destroyed the strengths and uniqueness of his game for the times. After that he never seemed to find himself again.

thank u. It just seems odd he never got another chance bc he killed it in Europe too
 

bleedblue94

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Jun 8, 2004
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thank u. It just seems odd he never got another chance bc he killed it in Europe too
It's crazy isn't me seem to some of us, there's some players that are perfectly happy tearing it up in European leagues and don't necessarily feel the need to deal with the NHL grind and the type of game it is that takes a toll on their bodies. I would have to imagine in his case he knew he was a good player and he knew he was a successful player, but then when they tried to change his body and his game and it didn't work I wonder if he just said screw it I'm going to go play in Europe and be able to play my style hockey and have a nice life. For a lot of people that's good enough
 
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Ruggs225

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It's crazy isn't me seem to some of us, there's some players that are perfectly happy tearing it up in European leagues and don't necessarily feel the need to deal with the NHL grind and the type of game it is that takes a toll on their bodies. I would have to imagine in his case he knew he was a good player and he knew he was a successful player, but then when they tried to change his body and his game and it didn't work I wonder if he just said screw it I'm going to go play in Europe and be able to play my style hockey and have a nice life. For a lot of people that's good enough

that makes sense.

He was just born in the wrong decade. Glad he had a successful career thoigh.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Apr 11, 2011
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Don't be surprised if Othmann spends 2022-23 on the Rangers. He doesn't have much left to learn in the OHL past this season, and they are already heavily involved in his development, focusing on his strength and powerskating similarly to Lias Andersson in 2017-18 when they assigned him a personal coach.
 

NYRangers0723

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Apr 30, 2019
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I must admit I really wanted a C since it’s position we don’t really have in the farm system that is a potential player for us but so far the kid has been very impressive
 
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UnSandvich

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Sep 7, 2017
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I felt & feel that Svechkov was the obvious pick there, and was a better fit for us organizationally. My bigger worries about Othmann personally was how poorly graded his skating was, by nearly every scouting service i read.

"If there’s a drawback to Othmann, it’s in terms of his skating. We won’t attempt to sugar coat it; Brennan has the worst skating mechanics out of any of the top end players featured in this class."- HP Black Book, pg 302

I was & still am worried that his skating will have a significantly detrimental effect on his possible NHL career, but he seems to be on the right path right now in the OHL otherwise
 

smoneil

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Jul 14, 2004
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Don't be surprised if Othmann spends 2022-23 on the Rangers. He doesn't have much left to learn in the OHL past this season, and they are already heavily involved in his development, focusing on his strength and powerskating similarly to Lias Andersson in 2017-18 when they assigned him a personal coach.

He'd be 19 years old and playing the same position as Bread, Kreider, and Laf. If they put him on the NHL roster getting piddling minutes rather than having him playing top line in the minors, it will reaffirm that this team knows f*** all about how to develop a prospect.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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He'd be 19 years old and playing the same position as Bread, Kreider, and Laf. If they put him on the NHL roster getting piddling minutes rather than having him playing top line in the minors, it will reaffirm that this team knows f*** all about how to develop a prospect.

Othmann plays both sides. They can have him play RW on the 3rd line if they really want him on the team. Move up Gauthier (assuming he takes a step this year) and it wouldn't be out of the question.

20-93-15
10-16-24
13-21-78
91-47-75

Chytil is probably dealt in the summer for cap reasons if they want to keep Strome.
 
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