Intangir
Registered User
To me, ''excellent potential'' means any prospect who could reasonably be earmarked to be able to play on a middle-6 and be a quality player there if everything goes well for them. Anything over that is what I call ''great potential'', and unless those prospects are selected in the very top of the draft, hence having very little perceived flaws, or are underscouted, which happens a lot, that added potential almost always comes with a greater bust factor to balance it all out.
There's only five outcomes possible when you draft after the first-round. It can be that the player you've selected has ''excellent'' potential and a reasonable chance to reach it (Lehkonen). He can be a ''safer'' prospect that you know has a very good chance of being a pro but lesser upside (De La Rose). Maybe you want to take a chance and opt for a ''swing-for-the-fences'' pick with a very high chance of busting but incredible upside if you win the gamble (Ikonen). The best outcome possible for your team is when you know something about a prospect that others don't, and ultimately nab a player with both ''great'' potential and a fairly low bust chance (Romanov), but those don't happen often. The worst kind of pick you can make is a ''call-out to the homeboy'' pick, where you blow one of your team's chances at a decent prospect out of a senseless desire to please insiders of the organization, nepotism with draft picks basically (Ruscheinski).
As a whole, I think that those prospects with ''excellent'' upside are more common than we think too, it's just that their chances to develop 100% of their abilities to conform to their latent potential is extremely low and that the process is non-linear and innately difficult. That factor of uncertainty remains a big reason why the draft is such a crapshoot after the first few top guys, and also why you can see guys like Giordano, Hasek, and Rafalski all take forever to really hit their stride but surprise people as they became elite players.
I have seen Khisamutdinov play a bit in the VHL this year as you did, and what he's done as a 21 year-old there is nothing short of pretty good. I was personally heartened by what I saw of him there because he played with poise, competed hard, made some pretty savvy plays, and exhibited a pretty strong overall skating ability, the sum of which makes me believe he could be a second-line player in the NHL if he develops completely. The tools and toolset are pretty good.
There's also the fact that he won a hearty dose of my respect for how he kept doing his thing, seemed in good spirits and ready to do his job as best he could even when his coach used him very little in KHL games. That speaks to me of character and dedication, important qualities to have in a young player.
In the end there's no pressure on Arsen, he's a fifth-round pick that, although good, hasn't really set the world on fire or anything yet. He just needs to be afforded time and opportunity to show what he can do, improve himself as a player to the point that the NHL is not a feverish dream anymore, that he begins to be featured on our 23-man roster, or fail and eventually be cast-out of the team as many others before him.
As fans, I believe we should maintain a casual approach to his and every late-round picks' (save those that show great things like Primeau) progression, being optimistic about the good and not overly critical of the bad (unless things degenerate ala Lefevbre).
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