Around the NHL: 2018-19, Part 5

[Zip15]

I'd feel better about this if the Leafs weren't being run by someone as sharp as Dubas. Watch him let Marner go for four 1sts, and then go out and give that money to Karlsson or Panarin, and then flip a first or two for a good, cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman.

 

[Gabrielor]

I'd feel better about this if the Leafs weren't being run by someone as sharp as Dubas. Watch him let Marner go for four 1sts, and then go out and give that money to Karlsson or Panarin, and then flip a first or two for a good, cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman.

I miss the Burke years.

 

[Aladyyn]

I love that TOR is dealing with championship team problems without the championship.

The Disease of More is already settling in, it's amazing.

 

[GellMann]

I'd feel better about this if the Leafs weren't being run by someone as sharp as Dubas. Watch him let Marner go for four 1sts, and then go out and give that money to Karlsson or Panarin, and then flip a first or two for a good, cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman.

This is why I don't get so excited about all this. First of all, less than three years ago, Toronto was in last and I was convinced we'd be set up to win playoff series right now. Instead, their young kids were so good that they are getting huge contracts, producing seasons like I wish ours would have. And even if they get into cap trouble, it's not as if, like you say, Marner wouldn't be able to garner a whole bunch of cost-controlled, good assets/hockey players. They're in an objectively good spot, and in an objectively ludicrous spot given the season they had just two and a half years ago.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

Marner’s agent tries to put out fire from Maple Leafs ‘lowball’ comments

Trying to put the genie back in the bottle....

 

[hizzoner]

I'd feel better about this if the Leafs weren't being run by someone as sharp as Dubas. Watch him let Marner go for four 1sts, and then go out and give that money to Karlsson or Panarin, and then flip a first or two for a good, cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman.

So is there a GM dumb enough to offer sheet Marner and give up the draft choices rather than go after the super UFAs for the same bucks? And a 5 year deal for 51 million say is 2 firsts a second and a third. A lot of teams would consider that especially if their chances for picking number one or two next year were slim .

 

[Jim Bob]

So is there a GM dumb enough to offer sheet Marner and give up the draft choices rather than go after the super UFAs for the same bucks? And a 5 year deal for 51 million say is 2 firsts a second and a third. A lot of teams would consider that especially if their chances for picking number one or two next year were slim .

Marner signed at big bucks through his late 20s is likely something that a lot of GMs would prefer as opposed to a big bucks UFA that will be signed through their early to mid-30s because of the less risk of the signing busting out.

 

[Icicle]

I think this team’s biggest mistake was not taking the 4 1sts for Vanek. They weren’t going to be good again and that was an instant rebuild we threw away. But given what had just happened losing the co captains, not sure anyone would’ve survived that ordeal.

Marner drives the play though. He’s worth it as long as you believe his addition is going to prevent you from getting a top-10 pick.

I would hate to see Toronto get a whole bunch of 1sts though. Their team is in worse shape if they try to keep him. They knew all along they’d rather have Tavares than Marner/Nylander. I’m surprised they just didn’t trade Nylander and keep Marner happy. Instead they are going to burn some bridges and ruin their locker room.

 

[hizzoner]

Marner signed at big bucks through his late 20s is likely something that a lot of GMs would prefer as opposed to a big bucks UFA that will be signed through their early to mid-30s because of the less risk of the signing busting out.

That is assuming a 7 year deal? I posited 5 years for Marner to keep the compensation level lower and still stiff Leafs. Sure-and consider a player like Skinner is free--no 4 number ones for him. How about Stone? Duchene>? Other GMS are not going to say--hey in order to help poor Kyle out here we will pass on those UFAs and sign Marner to huge 7 year deal. Yes some dolts in GM ranks but there would be a lot of explaining to do before an owner would let that happen.

 

[Jim Bob]

That is assuming a 7 year deal? I posited 5 years for Marner to keep the compensation level lower and still stiff Leafs. Sure-and consider a player like Skinner is free--no 4 number ones for him. How about Stone? Duchene>? Other GMS are not going to say--hey in order to help poor Kyle out here we will pass on those UFAs and sign Marner to huge 7 year deal. Yes some dolts in GM ranks but there would be a lot of explaining to do before an owner would let that happen.

It all depends on who hits the market.

The number of impact players that actually make it to UFA are usually a lot shorter than the list of impact players that make it to 7/1 as RFAs.

Then you have the question of how many teams with the cap space and the picks will be out there.

Plus, OSs haven't been used in the past because it has appeared like a long shot that a team wouldn't match and would take the picks. But, the Leafs cap situation does make a Marner OS more likely in the opinion of more than a few people.

Personally, I'll believe it when I see it. But, not because it doesn't make sense.

And using the Sabres as an example, their own 1sts from 2020-2023 would appear to be highly unlikely to be top tier picks with a core that includes Eichel, Marner, Reinhart, and Dahlin.

 

[hizzoner]

It all depends on who hits the market.

The number of impact players that actually make it to UFA are usually a lot shorter than the list of impact players that make it to 7/1 as RFAs.

Then you have the question of how many teams with the cap space and the picks will be out there.

Plus, OSs haven't been used in the past because it has appeared like a long shot that a team wouldn't match and would take the picks. But, the Leafs cap situation does make a Marner OS more likely in the opinion of more than a few people.

Personally, I'll believe it when I see it. But, not because it doesn't make sense.

And using the Sabres as an example, their own 1sts from 2020-2023 would appear to be highly unlikely to be top tier picks with a core that includes Eichel, Marner, Reinhart, and Dahlin.

I agree with what you say here.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I'd feel better about this if the Leafs weren't being run by someone as sharp as Dubas. Watch him let Marner go for four 1sts, and then go out and give that money to Karlsson or Panarin, and then flip a first or two for a good, cost-controlled forward and/or defenseman.

Don’t worry, Botterill will out-smart him. I’m sure he’ll send Risto over there for a few of those firsts. Then we just have to wait 7 more years after that and we’ll be off to the races.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

This is why I don't get so excited about all this. First of all, less than three years ago, Toronto was in last and I was convinced we'd be set up to win playoff series right now. Instead, their young kids were so good that they are getting huge contracts, producing seasons like I wish ours would have. And even if they get into cap trouble, it's not as if, like you say, Marner wouldn't be able to garner a whole bunch of cost-controlled, good assets/hockey players. They're in an objectively good spot, and in an objectively ludicrous spot given the season they had just two and a half years ago.

How much of the leafs turnaround was Shanahan luring Babcock, Hunter and Lou in though?


Babcock came in and changed that culture from day 1. He got excellent player buy-in and has a proven track record of developing young players.

And then Lou came in and helped cement that culture change IMO.

Hunter was running the drafts until he left.

What moves has Dubas truly made himself that were so fantastic?

The Muzzin trade was nice, I’ll give him that. But when I look at his body of work so far, I guess I’m not as sold on him as other are.

Like from when he was interim GM before Lou, I thought he got kind of schooled by Rutherford in the Kessel trade. Kapanen is finally working out but he struggled until this year and Toronto retained salary on Kessel + didn’t even get a guaranteed 1st round pick for i. It was conditional). Shanahan went and got Lou shortly after that move.

Then his work since being named GM (the Nylander holdout and contract situation + Matthews super player friendly deal)...

I’m not saying he won’t be a good GM, I just don’t know yet.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Kevbeau]

The

was that t e collision with Thompson last night?

 

[joshjull]

 

[joshjull]

The

was that t e collision with Thompson last night?

Yes

 

[GellMann]

That's so terrible. Please protect our players from stuff like that, hockey gods.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

 

[7even]

How much of the leafs turnaround was Shanahan luring Babcock, Hunter and Lou in though?


Babcock came in and changed that culture from day 1. He got excellent player buy-in and has a proven track record of developing young players.

And then Lou came in and helped cement that culture change IMO.

Hunter was running the drafts until he left.

What moves has Dubas truly made himself that were so fantastic?

The Muzzin trade was nice, I’ll give him that. But when I look at his body of work so far, I guess I’m not as sold on him as other are.

Like from when he was interim GM before Lou, I thought he got kind of schooled by Rutherford in the Kessel trade. Kapanen is finally working out but he struggled until this year and Toronto retained salary on Kessel + didn’t even get a guaranteed 1st round pick for i. It was conditional). Shanahan went and got Lou shortly after that move.

Then his work since being named GM (the Nylander holdout and contract situation + Matthews super player friendly deal)...

I’m not saying he won’t be a good GM, I just don’t know yet.

Kessel trade is weird. I'm with you, the return for Toronto was...uninspiring. But Kessel had I think a 10 team trade list and apparently Pittsburgh was the only team on it willing to play ball for him. They had to retain and they had to send a high pick back the other way. I think one of those is fine but both retention and a high 2nd? Yeah you're getting taken to the cleaners.

Dubas is hard to read. Pros: he says a lot of the right things, apparently had a genuinely great pitch to Tavares and worked out a pretty good contract all things considered, Muzzin trade looks like a good move in all respects, and I like that he gave Leivo a handshake and a shot with another team when it was clear he was out of the plans. Think that sends a good message. But he's been squeezed hard on both RFA negotiations and despite the "advantage" of being able to guarantee Matthews and Nylander an absurd amount of money in straight cash via obscene signing bonuses [at 15%(!) tax rate for Matthews] has gotten zero concessions on those contracts for either of those players. Rough look.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Kessel trade is weird. I'm with you, the return for Toronto was...uninspiring. But Kessel had I think a 10 team trade list and apparently Pittsburgh was the only team on it willing to play ball for him. They had to retain and they had to send a high pick back the other way. I think one of those is fine but both retention and a high 2nd? Yeah you're getting taken to the cleaners.

Dubas is hard to read. Pros: he says a lot of the right things, apparently had a genuinely great pitch to Tavares and worked out a pretty good contract all things considered, Muzzin trade looks like a good move in all respects, and I like that he gave Leivo a handshake and a shot with another team when it was clear he was out of the plans. Think that sends a good message. But he's been squeezed hard on both RFA negotiations and despite the "advantage" of being able to guarantee Matthews and Nylander an absurd amount of money in straight cash via obscene signing bonuses [at 15%(!) tax rate for Matthews] has gotten zero concessions on those contracts for either of those players. Rough look.

Well said. Good assessment.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Yes

Is Tage still on the Blues payroll cause this really helps them out in the Central....?

 

[sabrebuild]

Kessel trade is weird. I'm with you, the return for Toronto was...uninspiring. But Kessel had I think a 10 team trade list and apparently Pittsburgh was the only team on it willing to play ball for him. They had to retain and they had to send a high pick back the other way. I think one of those is fine but both retention and a high 2nd? Yeah you're getting taken to the cleaners.

Dubas is hard to read. Pros: he says a lot of the right things, apparently had a genuinely great pitch to Tavares and worked out a pretty good contract all things considered, Muzzin trade looks like a good move in all respects, and I like that he gave Leivo a handshake and a shot with another team when it was clear he was out of the plans. Think that sends a good message. But he's been squeezed hard on both RFA negotiations and despite the "advantage" of being able to guarantee Matthews and Nylander an absurd amount of money in straight cash via obscene signing bonuses [at 15%(!) tax rate for Matthews] has gotten zero concessions on those contracts for either of those players. Rough look.

How much of the leafs turnaround was Shanahan luring Babcock, Hunter and Lou in though?


Babcock came in and changed that culture from day 1. He got excellent player buy-in and has a proven track record of developing young players.

And then Lou came in and helped cement that culture change IMO.

Hunter was running the drafts until he left.

What moves has Dubas truly made himself that were so fantastic?

The Muzzin trade was nice, I’ll give him that. But when I look at his body of work so far, I guess I’m not as sold on him as other are.

Like from when he was interim GM before Lou, I thought he got kind of schooled by Rutherford in the Kessel trade. Kapanen is finally working out but he struggled until this year and Toronto retained salary on Kessel + didn’t even get a guaranteed 1st round pick for i. It was conditional). Shanahan went and got Lou shortly after that move.

Then his work since being named GM (the Nylander holdout and contract situation + Matthews super player friendly deal)...

I’m not saying he won’t be a good GM, I just don’t know yet.

My recollection of the Kessel trade is similar. He had a lot of leverage like Skinner and basically had Toronto handcuffed.

@WeLikeEich, I think you missed signing Tavares to a pretty good deal is a pretty fantastic move. He got a top ten center for just cap. And didn’t pay much more than most teams would for a homegrown player of that ilk.

And I know Nylander has had a slow statistical start, but I think that deal will be the standard within a year if not already. But it certainly wasn’t a steal.

I agree, there’s no guarantee in the nhl, and a gm’s perceived success is tied to luck so who knows.

But given all that, he worries me. He seems very disciplined for a young gm, willing to ride the nylander deal to the deadline, getting Tavares for a non stupid number. Muzzin with a great cap hit for another year.

I mean his arguable mistakes, high cap hit salaries for forwards, is super manageable. Worst case scenarios all involve trading a forward to even out the defense and lessen the cap, probably picking up some picks.

I hate the leafs.