Around the NHL: 2018-19, Part 5

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Zman5778

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Re-sign Skinner, clear the books a bit before the deadline (trade Scandella, possibly Bogosian) and offersheet Marner.

It'd take 4 1st round picks to OS Marner. And getting into the "barely 4 1st round picks" territory means Leafs snap-match. Marner's getting $10M plus. I'd rather save that $10M and 4 1sts and be able to sign Dahlin to a massive 8 year deal than sign Marner AND Skinner.
 

Zman5778

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I'm certainly not gonna get sad about the Leafs shortening their window and overpaying their core players.

Really their biggest issue is getting Marner signed, and realistically all they need to do is find someone to take on Horton's salary. Gardiner is probably gone, but Sandin and/or Liljegren should be NHL-ready next year and on ELCs.

Unfortunately, I don't see them having an issue keeping Tavares/Matthews/Marner/Nylander on the books long-term and still being able to keep good enough talent on the D. Yeah, they'll lose Kapanen and Gardiner probably -- but I don't see them as irreplaceable, especially for cheaper.

I dunno. Maybe I'm jaded......but I think it's all going to work out OK for the Leafs.
 

is the answer jesus

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It'd take 4 1st round picks to OS Marner. And getting into the "barely 4 1st round picks" territory means Leafs snap-match. Marner's getting $10M plus. I'd rather save that $10M and 4 1sts and be able to sign Dahlin to a massive 8 year deal than sign Marner AND Skinner.
Fair enough, but I don't think having Marner and Skinner causes any long-term issues re-signing Dahlin. The cap seems to be rising steadily and he's on his ELC until the 21-22 season. We really don't have a lot of contracts that run that long. Reinhart will have to be re-signed that's really the only big deal coming down the line and Sheary and Sobotka coming off the books that offseason will cover a big portion of that new deal. The 4 1st's is a hefty price to pay, but you'd be getting an elite 1st line player and addressing the teams biggest deficiency. We'd have what looks to be 3 1st round picks this year that can stock the system for future cheap contributors down the line. This takes advantage of Dahlin's ELC and opens our window. It also weakens a divisonal foe. I realize it's unlikely to happen, because offersheets never really do, but this would be a good time to strike.
 
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MayDayMayDay

But what is grief, if not love persevering?
Feb 22, 2012
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Re-sign Skinny - 8 x 8.5

OS Marner - 8 x 11.635 or 11.716 (b/c Trololololol)

Ship out Rhino with Okposo for picks.

Allocate the money we save towards re-signing Dahls.

Yeah. I could be about that life.

#TeamOSMarner
 
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sabrebuild

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Yes, he took a risk signing Eichel to that contract but I think it’s one you’d have to be willing to take. For whatever reason Toronto wasn’t willing (or able) to get to 8 years before the season.

I won’t pin that completely on them as Matthews could have said since July 1st of last year that 8yrs is going to cost $xm and that hasn’t shifted.

Matthews is probably the better player (he’s at least accomplished more, albeit on a much better team), than Eichel. But when you look at it,

Eichel 8yrs/$10m per
Matthews 5yrs / $11.6m per

Eichel 231pt/257gm .90per
Matthews 178pt/182gm .98per

This is not some sort of high level analysis, but is it outlandish to believe that Eichel on a higher scoring team over the last 3.5yrs puts up a tenth of a point more per game?

I will concede, though, that I envy Toronto’s situation. They have three young players that any team would love to have locked up (or will be locked up) for at least half a decade + Tavares. Ultimately, they had to balance term vs salary but I can’t help to think that if I were a leafs fan I see this contract and go “welp, this sucks”, but then immediately go into “we are contending for a Cup every year for the next five years.”
They kicked the Can down the road and I can’t really blame them.

I agree with you on signing him early. I just don’t think you sign him early unless you know you are getting a great deal.

I would disagree on their stats. First, I don’t think the right measure, to call them even should be based on their career to date. I look at their rates before signing.

Eichel before his deal had .79 ppg, relatively poor first season, sub ppg second season.

Matthews was .91 ppg with similar injury misses. Won a major award, and his shooting percentage and eye test show him to be an elite scorer.

With hindsight, in year three, Matthews smokes Eichel. But with team differences it could be argued they would be closer.

Big picture I’m with you on the leafs. Envy.

I see posters poo pooing their fed depth for next year, and all I can think is what are they talking about???

Their top 9 is the best or 2nd in the league. Their 4th line is ok. It’s not filled with vet bums for next year.

And that’s with them riding out the last year of Marleau’s deal. If they keep him, he is still solid and can help balance out a young line. And if they can move him, they have tons of cap space all of sudden, without hurting their offense much.

It’s not like they can’t move Nylander for defense and cap space or fwd depth if they needed.

New evil empire with Muzzin in there to help ease their defensive woes.
 

Doug Prishpreed

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Id have to do math which i dont want to ..but his % of cap should not be more than or equal to McDavid on an 8 yr deal... it should be considerably lower.

Conventional wisdom among the media is that McDavid took a pay cut to help the team. Dubas must’ve bought in to that narrative, true or not. AM had a crapload of leverage.

But I’m with you — I’d have a hard time swallowing that and prefer to have Jack with his contract over AM and his.
 

valet

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Surprised dubas caved like that after drawing things out with nylander tbh. That's a pretty weak effort on his part. Either way, leafs are still gonna be good for a while
 

Havok89

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If the rumors are true that it would take well over $13M or even $14M to sign him for 8 years, then this is a big win for Toronto. They’ll probably do the same with Marner. That gives Toronto 6 seasons to be legitimate Stanley cup contenders or even favorites.
 

TehDoak

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I would kill for a 6 year playoff contention window, much less the window that they have

They have a 1 year window...this year. And they are locked into a likely 2nd round matchup with Tampa, a team who is superior is every measurable way.

That's it. They'll be a very entertaining team, sure. Probably a playoff team every year of Matthews contract. But, once they are paying Matthews+Marner+Tavares 35M+ a year....they aren't a contender anymore. Even at a 90M cap, it isn't feasible. They have an average defense that is exploitable, a good goaltender, and incredible top 6 forwards. The defense quality will drop and offensive depth will be less once the contracts kick in for their big 3.
 

stokes84

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It'd take 4 1st round picks to OS Marner. And getting into the "barely 4 1st round picks" territory means Leafs snap-match. Marner's getting $10M plus. I'd rather save that $10M and 4 1sts and be able to sign Dahlin to a massive 8 year deal than sign Marner AND Skinner.

We have 6 first rounders over the next four years. I am perfectly happy to offersheet Marner to $13mil+. Let’s go.
 

GellMann

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Dec 16, 2014
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They have a 1 year window...this year. And they are locked into a likely 2nd round matchup with Tampa, a team who is superior is every measurable way.

That's it. They'll be a very entertaining team, sure. Probably a playoff team every year of Matthews contract. But, once they are paying Matthews+Marner+Tavares 35M+ a year....they aren't a contender anymore. Even at a 90M cap, it isn't feasible. They have an average defense that is exploitable, a good goaltender, and incredible top 6 forwards. The defense quality will drop and offensive depth will be less once the contracts kick in for their big 3.
The Leafs have a good chance to win multiple series any given year for the duration of Matthews' contract. Not a guarantee, but nobody can guarantee that. They have come appreciably close to maximizing what you can do from a dead-last, perpetually terrible rebuild, in three short years. Their problems stem from having too many great forwards. At any point, they can unload any of these guys for an absolute haul. Our 2C and 3C this year can't meet the production of those on our tank teams.

Since the Sabres decided to tank, 3 years before the Leafs were wrapping up theirs, the gap between the Sabres' win totals and those of the next-worst team in the NHL is more than twice as large as the gap between any two other consecutive teams in that span.

Again, I'd kill for a simple hope of playoff contention as a bubble team for a six year stretch.
 

GellMann

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Not all too different than Stamkos' 2nd contract: 5yrs $7.5Mper 11.66% of Cap. Mathews is 14.63% of Cap so 3% more. Bigger, but close.
Isn't it actually a better deal @ 5 years than several other NHL stars, as a percentage of cap? I don't remember who exactly but I saw 3 or 4 guys who were virtually identical, if not more cap?
 

enthusiast

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sabrebuild

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Apr 21, 2014
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Conventional wisdom among the media is that McDavid took a pay cut to help the team. Dubas must’ve bought in to that narrative, true or not. AM had a crapload of leverage.

But I’m with you — I’d have a hard time swallowing that and prefer to have Jack with his contract over AM and his.

Seems like McDavid might be the only guy to take a pay cut in this whole generation.
 

yahhockey

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Jan 23, 2013
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Five years @ 11? 6 @ the 11.6 Matthews signed so they are paid the same but the extra year gives Matthews more inherent value? Just because you believe something to be true doesn't necessarily make it so.
 
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