Around the League 3 - The Threequel Always Sucks

[Blueline Bomber]

Ron Francis has a lot of experience. Maybe he can solve their forward issues.

I'm going to assume this is you just being snippy and not that you actually believe that's an apt comparison.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Mine as well.

To me it's not Cam vs the field. It's whether or not to pay a premium for the difference between Cam and the field.

So your position would be, if Lack "steals" the starter position this season and then walks in FA, the preferable scenario would be to just go into FA and grab two goaltenders? (Or i suppose trade for one...)

Just asking, not saying it's wrong.

 

[What the Faulk]

I'm going to assume this is you just being snippy and not that you actually believe that's an apt comparison.

If it sounds hyperbolic, it's because it's intentional since the Jarome Iginla comparison didn't seem to land.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If it sounds hyperbolic, it's because it's intentional since the Jarome Iginla comparison didn't seem to land.

The comparison would have landed if it was a more accurate representation of the situation. To use Jarome Iginla as a comparison, it'd be saying I'd put more trust in Iginla to be a top 6 forward than I would Nino Niederreiter. Niederreiter has higher potential and will likely be more useful to the team in the future. But if only one Top 6 spot was open next year and the choice came down between the two of them, I'd go with the more proven guy.

 

[nobuddy]

The comparison would have landed if it was a more accurate representation of the situation. To use Jarome Iginla as a comparison, it'd be saying I'd put more trust in Iginla to be a top 6 forward than I would Nino Niederreiter. Niederreiter has higher potential and will likely be more useful to the team in the future. But if only one Top 6 spot was open next year and the choice came down between the two of them, I'd go with the more proven guy.

But Iginla is still a top six forward in the NHL, and proved it by putting up 59 points last year.

Cam Ward isn't still a capable starting goalie of playing 60 games at an above average level, just like Iginla isn't capable of being a top 10 forward in the league anymore, which was my original point.

Would you rather bet on MacKinnon or Iginla to finish top ten in the NHL in points next year?

Iginla has done it many times before, but MacKinnon has the potential to do it in the future.

Your logic dictates that you'd be more likely to expect Iginla to do that, right?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

But Iginla is still a top six forward in the NHL, and proved it by putting up 59 points last year.

Cam Ward isn't still a capable starting goalie of playing 60 games at an above average level, just like Iginla isn't capable of being a top 10 forward in the league anymore, which was my original point.

Would you rather bet on MacKinnon or Iginla to finish top ten in the NHL in points next year?

Iginla has done it many times before, but MacKinnon has the potential to do it in the future.

Your logic dictates that you'd be more likely to expect Iginla to do that, right?

If Lack had the resume behind him that McKinnon has, I wouldn't be as hesitant as I am to declare him the starter. McKinnon had the potential to be a Top 6 player and showed that he could play that role. Thus, there's no issue calling him such.

Lack has the potential to be the starter, but has yet to show that he can play that role. Thus, if you ask who I believe who is more likely to play 60+ games next year, I'd say the guy that has been the starter in the past over unproven, but high potential.

Anyone else as tired of this conversation as I am? Is there anything else going on around the league?

 

[nobuddy]

If Lack had the resume behind him that McKinnon has, I wouldn't be as hesitant as I am to declare him the starter. McKinnon had the potential to be a Top 6 player and showed that he could play that role. Thus, there's no issue calling him such.

Lack has the potential to be the starter, but has yet to show that he can play that role. Thus, if you ask who I believe who is more likely to play 60+ games next year, I'd say the guy that has been the starter in the past over unproven, but high potential.

Anyone else as tired of this conversation as I am? Is there anything else going on around the league?

The question wasn't can MacKinnok be a top six forward the question was would you rather have Iginla or MacKinnon if you're betting on one to be a top ten forward IN THE NHL.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The question wasn't can MacKinnok be a top six forward the question was would you rather have Iginla or MacKinnon if you're betting on one to be a top ten forward IN THE NHL.

But I'm not betting on Ward or Lack being a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Are you?

 

[TheOllieC]

bb and cwardo sitting in a tree

k-i-s-s-i-n-g

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Someone ELI5 this NHL/MLB deal announced today.

 

[Novacane]

Sutter gets paid. 5 years, $4.35 million AAV.

NTC

 

[tarheelhockey]

So your position would be, if Lack "steals" the starter position this season and then walks in FA, the preferable scenario would be to just go into FA and grab two goaltenders? (Or i suppose trade for one...)

Just asking, not saying it's wrong.

Depends on Ward's price and especially what kind of term he's looking for. Again... how much is the premium? Under the conditions you've suggested, it's a no brainer to bring him back under $4M. I'd even go a little higher, on a one year deal, just to maintain a bit of organizational stability.

Let's say it's going to cost $4.75M for three years. At that point I'm taking a loooong look at that free agent crop and keeping my ear to the ground for trade opportunities. It was suggested upthread that Luongo shouldn't be used as a comparison because of his contract... but Florida deserves credit for jumping on that when the opportunity presented itself. Minnesota picked up a Vezina finalist for peanuts. Varlamov, Mason, Bobrovsky, Hiller, Elliott, Bishop. Good goalies get moved all the time, especially when there's a numbers game working against them. If there's a way to pick up even a decent starter via trade, I'd explore that option before handcuffing us to a future where Ward's either our starter or a salary-sucking backup.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Well, he's been traded twice in his young career, and I remember the first trade apparently shook him quite a bit. Not surprising he'd ask for an NTC now.

 

[Novacane]

Well, he's been traded twice in his young career, and I remember the first trade apparently shook him quite a bit. Not surprising he'd ask for an NTC now.

I mean, I see his side but I'm glad we're not giving him that contract. And I've been extremely adamant that he has more in him as a player.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I mean, I see his side but I'm glad we're not giving him that contract. And I've been extremely adamant that he has more in him as a player.

Oh, no doubt. Love the kid, but there's no way I'd be happy if the Canes were paying him $4.5 million

 

[bleedgreen]

To be fair, no one seems to be happy paying anyone anything other than an elc or a league minimum.

Or the semin for 1.1 type of players of course.

sutter has played for years and has proven himself a solid player. I think Pitts would've given him the same if they had room. That's not a lot of money anymore, unfortunately for us.

 

[tarheelhockey]

To me the jaw-dropper is the NTC. The money is fair, the term is inadvisably long, so why the heck is he getting an NTC on top of that?

Sutter is exactly the sort of player I'd want to have the flexibility to trade. He's a good complimentary piece and has real trade value, but he's not going to lead a team anywhere. Why a player like that would get an NTC on a long, market-value contract... man, that's just mind boggling.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

To me the jaw-dropper is the NTC. The money is fair, the term is inadvisably long, so why the heck is he getting an NTC on top of that?

Sutter is exactly the sort of player I'd want to have the flexibility to trade. He's a good complimentary piece and has real trade value, but he's not going to lead a team anywhere. Why a player like that would get an NTC on a long, market-value contract... man, that's just mind boggling.

Someone brought up the point in the trade topic: Vancouver already paid a high price for him in a trade, and if the NTC was something that Sutter and/or his agent really wanted in his new deal, there's not much the Canucks could do otherwise. They certainly couldn't not extend him, not after giving up what they did to acquire him.

Or it could simply be Benning, who certainly has had an auspicious beginning to his GM career.

 

[Unsustainable]

Sutter might be tired of being traded every other year.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah I don't think gm's just hand out ntc's like candy. They had Benning where they wanted him, he didn't have a choice. I don't think they gave up much to get Sutter at all. Bonino has become one of the most overrated players I think I've seen in a long time around here. Vancouver thinks they dman they tossed in is not an nhl player and the picks aren't a huge difference.

I don't think benning has done bad. Everyone rails about the Kesler trade. Did he have a better offer on the table? He had a guy who wanted out, doesn't give you a lot of options.

 

[The Stranger]

Depends on Ward's price and especially what kind of term he's looking for. Again... how much is the premium? Under the conditions you've suggested, it's a no brainer to bring him back under $4M. I'd even go a little higher, on a one year deal, just to maintain a bit of organizational stability.

Let's say it's going to cost $4.75M for three years. At that point I'm taking a loooong look at that free agent crop and keeping my ear to the ground for trade opportunities. It was suggested upthread that Luongo shouldn't be used as a comparison because of his contract... but Florida deserves credit for jumping on that when the opportunity presented itself. Minnesota picked up a Vezina finalist for peanuts. Varlamov, Mason, Bobrovsky, Hiller, Elliott, Bishop. Good goalies get moved all the time, especially when there's a numbers game working against them. If there's a way to pick up even a decent starter via trade, I'd explore that option before handcuffing us to a future where Ward's either our starter or a salary-sucking backup.

In a scenario where Lack outperforms Ward, becomes the #1, then leaves in free agency...ya, it would not make sense to offer Ward anywhere near 3 X 4.75. That's closer to the type of contract to offer if he beats out Lack and stays healthy...although I'd try and make it two years.

Sure, Florida made out pretty good in the Luongo trade...if you take a snapshot of his performance and cap hit last year, it looks great...but the point remains that it's not a good contract to calibrate expectations for Canes future goalie contracts...the Luongo situation is unique in a number of ways...12-year contract signed 6 years ago...Vancouver ate most of the salary upfront...Vancouver retained salary...Luongo was demanding a trade, had a no-trade clause, and wanted to return to Florida.

 

[What the Faulk]

Yeah I don't think gm's just hand out ntc's like candy. They had Benning where they wanted him, he didn't have a choice. I don't think they gave up much to get Sutter at all. Bonino has become one of the most overrated players I think I've seen in a long time around here. Vancouver thinks they dman they tossed in is not an nhl player and the picks aren't a huge difference.

I don't think benning has done bad. Everyone rails about the Kesler trade. Did he have a better offer on the table? He had a guy who wanted out, doesn't give you a lot of options.

Bonino has put up 88 points over the last two years. Sutter, 59. I'm not sure Selke level defense is worth that difference, and if we're talking overrated, Sutter isn't even close to that.

If Vancouver is getting 40 point Sutter, that contract is not terrible. If it's the Sutter of the last 5 seasons who has averaged 30 points a year, then that's a lot to pay.

To put it another way, Nathan Gerbe averages half a point more per 82 games than Sutter over their respective careers.

 

[NotOpie]

In a scenario where Lack outperforms Ward, becomes the #1, then leaves in free agency...ya, it would not make sense to offer Ward anywhere near 3 X 4.75. That's closer to the type of contract to offer if he beats out Lack and stays healthy...although I'd try and make it two years.

Sure, Florida made out pretty good in the Luongo trade...if you take a snapshot of his performance and cap hit last year, it looks great...but the point remains that it's not a good contract to calibrate expectations for Canes future goalie contracts...the Luongo situation is unique in a number of ways...12-year contract signed 6 years ago...Vancouver ate most of the salary upfront...Vancouver retained salary...Luongo was demanding a trade, had a no-trade clause, and wanted to return to Florida.

My adult ADD kicked in 5 pages ago....

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sure, Florida made out pretty good in the Luongo trade...if you take a snapshot of his performance and cap hit last year, it looks great...but the point remains that it's not a good contract to calibrate expectations for Canes future goalie contracts...

For sure it's a non-market value contract, but my point is simply that Florida remained flexible until the time was right.

This is how their goalie progression went, starting with Belfour as mentioned upthread:

2007 - Took advantage of Nashville's shaky ownership and goalie logjam to acquire Tomas Vokoun, who would be one of the league's best goalies over the next four years, for a draft package that ended up being Colin Wilson and Nick Spaling. The following season they drafted Markstrom, who was regarded universally as their goalie of the future.

2011 - Took advantage of Minnesota's goalie logjam to sign Jose Theodore for peanuts. Theodore was coming off a fine year as the Wild's backup and had a really solid season in Florida.

2012 - Theodore went down with injury, so they started to work Markstrom into their lineup along with a veteran in Clemmensen.

2013 - Everyone thought this would be the year that Markstrom took over, but he was horrendous. So the Panthers picked up Tim Thomas for peanuts and he was solid after a rusty start. Then, in March, they took advantage of the ridiculous Canucks goalie situation and acquired Luongo, a star goalie on a tiny contract, in exchange for Markstrom and Shawn Matthias.


So during this timeframe, the Panthers managed to pick up Tomas Vokoun, Jose Theodore and Roberto Luongo simply by taking advantage of other teams' logjams. Collectively those goalies recorded a .921 in Florida, against a league average of .912 during that timeframe. They were also able to pick up Tim Thomas for peanuts as a free agent. Their only misadventure was with Markstrom, who was universally regarded as a blue chip prospect and simply didn't pan out.

That's the sort of flexibility and creativity the Hurricanes need to have if they want to get this goalie situation sorted out. In a scenario where Ward is suddenly a default option, I'd rather see them take a flyer on a less established goalie for 1 year, rather than lock into Ward for the long term. Because there are constant opportunities on the goalie market if you just show a bit of patience and take advantage of opportunities as they arise. A team with an open starting position is in a far better position than one with an over-contracted but substandard starter.

 

[Joe McGrath]

This is nit picky but Luongo isn't on a tiny contract. He's been making $6.7 million a year since coming to Florida and will continue to do so for 3 more years until he is 38.