Around the League 2019-20 IV

[Ripshot 43]

The Gardiner situation is strange. He and his agent went from extremely overvaluing himself (if rumored ask was true), to completely being reasonable and taking a “long term” deal. I was truly expecting a 1 year show me deal
But it seems like he caved.

 

[The 29th Pick]

The Gardiner situation is strange. He and his agent went from extremely overvaluing himself (if rumored ask was true), to completely being reasonable and taking a “long term” deal. I was truly expecting a 1 year show me deal
But it seems like he caved.

Maybe he thought he'd get a boatload of cash from Toronto, but now the seasons near and he just wants to play with a decent team.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Maybe he thought he'd get a boatload of cash from Toronto, but now the seasons near and he just wants to play with a decent team.

Definitely but you have to think he could’ve gotten a 1 year deal with other teams as well. Especially if he was slated for 2nd or maybe even 3rd line duties with Carolina and PP time, his numbers may look quite nice this year.

 

[RangerDoggo]

Every defenseman has to go to Buffalo or Carolina. Sorry, I don’t make the rules.

 

[Desert Devil]

Maybe he thought he'd get a boatload of cash from Toronto, but now the seasons near and he just wants to play with a decent team.

Not a chance he thought Toronto was overpaying for him. Still a good contract nevertheless.

 

[Sgt Brylin]

Only agreed to terms though, might still go KHL.

 

[Alex NJD]

Good deal for Columbus

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

that is cheap as hell

 

[Call Me Al]

yeah damn, that's a good deal

 

[Brodeur]

Walks him up to his potential UFA season, and I imagine Werenski's agent is thinking the new TV deal will boost the cap right as this contract is expiring.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Walks him up to his potential UFA season, and I imagine Werenski's agent is thinking the new TV deal will boost the cap right as this contract is expiring.

yeah i dont see the big advantage of this deal for columbus, they arent near the cap ceiling and now their best 2 players and D men need contracts in 3 years when the cap may be much higher.

 

[Brodeur]

They get him cheap for now at least and they maintain some wiggle room when Dubois needs a new deal next offseason.

 

[Triumph]

Werenski will still have one more season before he is UFA.

 

[Devils731]

Only agreed to terms though, might still go KHL.

3rd year is apparently $7 million so his next QO will be a decent number.

 

[Brodeur]

In terms of trade partners, Anaheim and Carolina could match up. Ducks only have two RHD signed (and one of those is Korbinian Holzer who might not be a regular) and a boatload of young forwards to potentially dangle. Then again, not sure which direction Anaheim is going this year so adding an impending UFA might not make sense for them.

I don't think they have the cap space but Faulk would be a great fit on Vegas as well.

 

[HBK27]

Devils season preview has also not yet been released from The Athletic, which is counting down from worst to best teams.

Here are the rankings so far:

31. Sens
30. Red Wings
29. Kings
28. Sabres
27. Oilers
26. Rangers
25. Canucks
24. Coyotes
23. Blackhawks
22. Blue Jackets
21. Ducks
20. Islanders
19. Canadiens

Montreal has a 90.1 point projection and 40% chance of making the playoffs, so Devils will be above those numbers in the projections.

They should be up this week as I have to figure the Wild, Flyers, Devils and Panthers occupy the 15-18 slots, as there's a clear jump after that IMO (to Avs, Stars, Hurricanes territory).

 

[Blackjack]

Devils season preview has also not yet been released from The Athletic, which is counting down from worst to best teams.

Here are the rankings so far:

31. Sens
30. Red Wings
29. Kings
28. Sabres
27. Oilers
26. Rangers
25. Canucks
24. Coyotes
23. Blackhawks
22. Blue Jackets
21. Ducks
20. Islanders
19. Canadiens

Montreal has a 90.1 point projection and 40% chance of making the playoffs, so Devils will be above those numbers in the projections.

They should be up this week as I have to figure the Wild, Flyers, Devils and Panthers occupy the 15-18 slots, as there's a clear jump after that IMO (to Avs, Stars, Hurricanes territory).

They're list is ascending on points, but because of the different divisions that the teams play in, the playoff odds don't ascend smoothly. For example,

23. Chicago - 86.6 points, 29% playoffs
22. Colombus - 87.3 points, 27% playoffs
21. Anaheim - 88.5 points, 41% playoffs
20. NY Islanders - 89.2 points, 35% playoffs
19. Montreal - 90.1 points, 40% playoffs

That said, I could see us with ~50% playoff odds. It will be really interesting to see. I don't know how you project guys like Gusev and Hughes.

 

[HBK27]

They're list is ascending on points, but because of the different divisions that the teams play in, the playoff odds don't ascend smoothly. For example,

23. Chicago - 86.6 points, 29% playoffs
22. Colombus - 87.3 points, 27% playoffs
21. Anaheim - 88.5 points, 41% playoffs
20. NY Islanders - 89.2 points, 35% playoffs
19. Montreal - 90.1 points, 40% playoffs

That said, I could see us with ~50% playoff odds. It will be really interesting to see. I don't know how you project guys like Gusev and Hughes.

Good point. I didn't call that out since I thought it would be safe to assume that NJ's playoff odds would be higher than Montreal's since they play in a tougher division, but looking at how NYI odds compare to Montreal's I guess that isn't the case. Atlantic is more top/bottom heavy I guess versus the Metro, which is more balanced, so looks like playoff chances there are lower and Devils could still come in below 40%. Good callout.

I'm very interested to see how they project. Kakko was projected at 1.4 WAR, so have to think Hughes is in that ballpark. Also very interested to see how they list the lineup, which sounds like it would largely be based on Masisak's recommendation. Curious to see how NJ's center depth ranks league-wide.

 

[Devils731]

I'm very interested to see how they project. Kakko was projected at 1.4 WAR, so have to think Hughes is in that ballpark.

I think most projection tools don’t think highly of Hughes in the NHL next year because nobody goes from the NTDP to the NHL so his performance is heavily discounted.

 

[HBK27]

I think most projection tools don’t think highly of Hughes in the NHL next year because nobody goes from the NTDP to the NHL so his performance is heavily discounted.

Perhaps, though Hughes is a unique case being the first to make the jump. Thinking even if the raw projections are low, there might be some adjustments so it's in the ballpark to Kakko and other top picks' rookie season. That being said, I don't know a lot of the detail that goes into making these projections and if there are ever adjustments like that or if they just call out that there is upside versus the model.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

oh no baby Anaheim what is you doin

 

[HBK27]

Figure Anaheim HAS to have an extension in place if they trade for Faulk.

Kase would be way too much to give up for him though.

 

[Blackjack]

No way they're trading Kase. He might be their best forward.

 

[JrFischer54]

Walks him up to his potential UFA season, and I imagine Werenski's agent is thinking the new TV deal will boost the cap right as this contract is expiring.

honestly what the jackets should do now is shop the hell out of him to a team that is up against the cap but can fit him. having him locked up "cheap" his value will never be higher then it is right now. the jackets you figure aren't going to be competing this year and honestly him wanting to stay and them wanting to pay him bigly on his next contract? i doubt he stays

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Am I the only one who thinks Faulk is very overrated?