Speculation: Armchair GM Thread VIII - We've Tried Nothing! And we have all kinds of ideas!

[Some Other Flame]

No read my original f***ing post. I did say he needs to start scoring…big f***ing IF

Nope. 30 goals is 30 goals. He could get 0 points from now on and still get 5.5M.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Nope. 30 goals is 30 goals. He could get 0 points from now on and still get 5.5M.

Especially if he goes to arbitration.

That's pretty much all based on statistics, not goalless droughts.

 

[Tofveve]

Getting our #1C alone makes it a major win for us. Hanifin is a nice cherry on top too.

Yeah I didn't realize what a stud Lindholm would be

 

[Mobiandi]

This team needs to keep Mike Stone in the line-up when Kylington comes back and both need to be on the powerplay

 

[TheHudlinator]

That’s how much Bennett is making and he is a center and brings tangible.

Great so he signs his QO and becomes a highly sought after ufa the year after he ain't making 4 unless he loves it here

Bennett's best season before that contract was 36 points in 72 games in his rookie year. Even last year he had 27 points in 48 games with 10 goals. They aren't comparable

 

[Mazatt]

I don't see why we are building Mangiapane's case just off points/goals. Drawing a comparable is really hard, just, intuitively. Mangiapane has a lot of goals, and not a lot of assists. This is after multiple seasons where he had strong underlying analytics in a depth role. He has carried those analytical strengths forward into a prominent top 4 forward role. By the same token the presumed comparables of players just off goals isn't really there. Going into cap friendly I set some comparable factors, 26 year old, arb eligible RFA's that signed for ~4 years.

At ~6 million dollars there is
Buchnevich: 5.8M, coming off of a 48 in 54 season, and has strong underlyings
Mantha: 5.7M, coming off of 38 in 43, on a rebuilding team
Tatar: 5.3M, coming off 46 pints in 82 games on Detroit

These are all the contracts at 90% comparable to a 6x4 for Mangiapane. Most notably they all had a semi consistent track record of success and other than Tatar were near ppg in the season they signed in, for ~7% of the cap each year.

At ~4.5 million dollars there is
Marchand: 4.5m coming off of 55 in 76
Versteeg: 4.4 coming off of 54 in 71
Kreider: 4.625 coming off of 43 in 79


The most notable similarity is Marchand. He signed the deal where 2 years prior he had 41 points in 77 games. Last year Mangiapane's p% applied to 77 games would be 44 points. This season his current p% is equal to 51 points in the same amount of GP as Marchand his signing year, in which Marchand had 55 points.

So to that point at 82.5m, and with Marchand making up 7.5% of the cap, Mangiapane's closest comp is $6,187,500 AAV, and that is with Marchand's contract coming in his 3rd year in the league.

 

[Some Other Flame]

It's also important to note that at 26 this might Mangiapane's best and perhaps only shot at a significant payday

 

[Nanuuk]

I'm sorry but if he is not effective the vast majority of games.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Nanuuk]

No cap-space. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are playing themselves into 10m+ category level contracts, and Mangiapane will be around 6m give or take. Zadorov is going to want 4-5m long term, and that's just too much for 3rd pairing dmen when you already have so much many tied up into depth players.

There is no way Mangiapane will be offered $6M. Zadorov may want term so the decision should be whether being satisfied with a young 27 yr old or waiting for Mackey and Valimaki to develop and in the end what do they bring to the team?

 

[super6646]

There is no way Mangiapane will be offered $6M. Zadorov may want term so the decision should be whether being satisfied with a young 27 yr old or waiting for Mackey and Valimaki to develop and in the end what do they bring to the team?

Even if he doesn’t, zadorov is a cap sacrifice when Gaudreau and tkachuk are knocking at 8 digit contracts.

To me it’s pretty simple, you keep mackey/valimaki. Zadorov had an alright season that was extremely up and down, but that’s not a player you pay 4m+ a season. Mackey has looked nhl ready for 2 seasons and is cheaper. He might not be a hard hitter, but he has some size and does have some potential.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Mangi will get 5 per over 6 years.

 

[DFF]

Bennett's best season before that contract was 36 points in 72 games in his rookie year. Even last year he had 27 points in 48 games with 10 goals. They aren't comparable

Treliving hasn’t even signed Johnny

Do you honestly think he would pay 6M for Mangi unless he finished strong?

Treliving doesn’t have a history of overpaying his own RFA. Yes, Mangi can go to arbitration but the Flames have options and time

Btw, numbers may not be compatible but Bennett finished strong and is a beast. Let’s not talk like Mangi has multiple 30 goal seasons.

I just don’t see the Flames wanting or can afford to pay him 6M unless he finished strong and force their hands

 

[HighLifeMan]

Jared McCann is clearly Mangiapane's closest comparable as they are the same age and have extremely similar numbers over 1, 2, and 3 year sample sizes. McCann just signed a 5 year extension at 5M per season. From a pure counting stats perspective McCann has actually been slightly more productive over the two and three year time periods.

Anywhere from 4-6 years at between 4.75M-5.25M should be completely fair.

 

[Mobiandi]

Mangiapane will get a similar contract to Backlund's imo. Shutdown guy who hits 30 goals is an easy >5 million even though the assists aren't there. His agent will be in his ear to take the quick UFA route but I think he'll sign long-term to cash in

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Mangi will get 5 per over 6 years.

That's a lot of bread, and probably near what will happen.

Praise jebus that his goal scoring kind of cooled off lately and made him slightly more affordable.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Man, the black and white views in this thread are amusing. No shit him having 30 goals will be a negotiation point. So will him going scoreless for so long. Both will have an impact on discussions, and they'll meet in the middle. That's literally how negotiations work.

I want Mangi on the team long term, but there absolutely has to be some concern over him scoring like crazy on an unsustainable shooting percentage and then doing nothing for a HUGE chunk of time. It's over a month at this point.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Treliving hasn’t even signed Johnny

Do you honestly think he would pay 6M for Mangi unless he finished strong?

Treliving doesn’t have a history of overpaying his own RFA. Yes, Mangi can go to arbitration but the Flames have options and time

Btw, numbers may not be compatible but Bennett finished strong and is a beast. Let’s not talk like Mangi has multiple 30 goal seasons.

I just don’t see the Flames wanting or can afford to pay him 6M unless he finished strong and force their hands

Bennett finished strong with with a sample size of 10 games. Mangiapane is 2 goals away from out scoring the 2 highest scoring seasons Bennett had before his new contract. I'm not sure what Mangiapane will make but 1. Bennett is not comparable in any real way and if he is we are in trouble because he got 4 million for 10 goals 27 points in 48 games so by that logic Mangiapane could ask for 8. 2. If he Treliving plays hard ball Mangiapane can just sign his QO and look to get paid the next year, even if comes down to earth and only has 47 points and 28 goals which was his pace last year he will be looking at 5 million+ considering that's better than Coleman had in Tampa and Mangiapane is 4 years younger. My guess is if we get a deal worked out it will be around 5.25-5.75 for 5 or 6 years

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Which is why I think the Flames may try to re-sign Zadorov who will only turn 27 on April 16 and that's only two years older than Hanifin and Andersson.

Big, tough, smooth skating D-men are hard to come by. And one of the reasons the Flames have enjoyed so much success this year is because we have the likes of Lucic, Ritchie, Zadorov, and Gudbranson on the team. We're tough to play against.

Fast forward to next year if Lucic is gone (as many fans appear to want) and Ritchie is gone (again the chorus is to lose him) and Zadorov walks into UFA. Assuming we can re-sign Guddy, all of a sudden we're not quite as scary as we are this year.

No offense to Valimaki or Mackey, but our D would take a big hit by not being as tough.

I don’t mind keeping Ritchie at 800k and/or replacing Lucic with a big physical 4th line LW. And agreed we keep Gudbranson. But bottom line is Lucic Ritchie and Zadorov are extremely extremely replaceable and not a main reason for our success. I agree overall team toughness is nice and there is some value to it, but not when ur paying 10+ mil to the bottom or ur roster. Replace Lucic and Zad’s combined 9 mil with a physical 4LW and Mackey for 2 mil and spend the other 7 on actual core players like Mang/Kylington

 

[Rockmorton]

4 million for a 30 goal scorer? Good luck

Correction. A “one time” 30 goal scorer.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Correction. A “one time” 30 goal scorer.

He scored at a 28 goal pace last year. Like I said good luck getting him on a deal at 4 million

 

[DFF]

Bennett finished strong with with a sample size of 10 games. Mangiapane is 2 goals away from out scoring the 2 highest scoring seasons Bennett had before his new contract. I'm not sure what Mangiapane will make but 1. Bennett is not comparable in any real way and if he is we are in trouble because he got 4 million for 10 goals 27 points in 48 games so by that logic Mangiapane could ask for 8. 2. If he Treliving plays hard ball Mangiapane can just sign his QO and look to get paid the next year, even if comes down to earth and only has 47 points and 28 goals which was his pace last year he will be looking at 5 million+ considering that's better than Coleman had in Tampa and Mangiapane is 4 years younger. My guess is if we get a deal worked out it will be around 5.25-5.75 for 5 or 6 years

Again, if he wants 6M+, Treliving can trade him. It’s not like there is no option. Mangi is like Bennett, a critical support player but not the guy to carry the team. You should not break the bank to pay those guys. It’s ok if we don’t have Johnny and Tkachuk to sign but we do. I think 5M is as far as they should go with him.

Also you underestimate Bennett. He brings more than number. Even his numbers look as good as Mangi this year.

 

[Mazatt]

Again, if he wants 6M+, Treliving can trade him. It’s not like there is no option. Mangi is like Bennett, a critical support player but not the guy to carry the team. You should not break the bank to pay those guys. It’s ok if we don’t have Johnny and Tkachuk to sign but we do. I think 5M is as far as they should go with him.

Also you underestimate Bennett. He brings more than number. Even his numbers look as good as Mangi this year.

Mangiapane is the type of guy you move other players to keep around.

Mangiapane is the only capable depth on this team. For his entire career he has seen either no PP minutes or the 2nd unit. For his entire career he has had elite analytical contributions on the defensive end of the puck (which has led to him contributing on the PK now as well). This isn't a case for Mangiapane where he's an alright depth player and is having a big year before his payday, he has been a play driver for much of his career with the Flames.

There's all of this reference to Bennett being more than his points, then what the hell is Mangiapane? He has elite defensive results, he scores, he is very physically engaged in every game, he is a possession monster. Also note he has done all of this with Backlund and Coleman who eat a lot of criticism. Mangiapane has 9 different line combos with EV minutes >25 this season. 2 of them are under 60% CF. Those two are
Mangiapane - Dube - Ritchie
Mangiapane - Backlund - Toffoli

I'd argue he's more than a critical support player. He is closer to what Tkachuk was as support the past few yeasr than what Bennett is. An elite player who is stuck behind an even more elite player so he gets to be great on the 2nd line.


This isn't gonna stop the argument from being "oh when was his last goal when he was 30" ad infinitum but bar none this is not a guy you trade just beacuse he is going to make 6m. This is a guy you get in that 4-6 million range with term and you laugh to the bank because his underlyings show he still has another level that will make his contract look like a discount in the future.

 

[DFF]

Mangiapane is the type of guy you move other players to keep around.

Mangiapane is the only capable depth on this team. For his entire career he has seen either no PP minutes or the 2nd unit. For his entire career he has had elite analytical contributions on the defensive end of the puck (which has led to him contributing on the PK now as well). This isn't a case for Mangiapane where he's an alright depth player and is having a big year before his payday, he has been a play driver for much of his career with the Flames.

There's all of this reference to Bennett being more than his points, then what the hell is Mangiapane? He has elite defensive results, he scores, he is very physically engaged in every game, he is a possession monster. Also note he has done all of this with Backlund and Coleman who eat a lot of criticism. Mangiapane has 9 different line combos with EV minutes >25 this season. 2 of them are under 60% CF. Those two are
Mangiapane - Dube - Ritchie
Mangiapane - Backlund - Toffoli

I'd argue he's more than a critical support player. He is closer to what Tkachuk was as support the past few yeasr than what Bennett is. An elite player who is stuck behind an even more elite player so he gets to be great on the 2nd line.


This isn't gonna stop the argument from being "oh when was his last goal when he was 30" ad infinitum but bar none this is not a guy you trade just beacuse he is going to make 6m. This is a guy you get in that 4-6 million range with term and you laugh to the bank because his underlyings show he still has another level that will make his contract look like a discount in the future.

Nah, I’d sign Johnny and Tkachuk first. Mangi is a distance 3rd at that price….but sure sign them all if you have cap space

 

[Mazatt]

Nah, I’d sign Johnny and Tkachuk first. Mangi is a distance 3rd at that price….but sure sign them all if you have cap space

Well, yeah. He's clearly a tier below them when they are both on pace for 100+ point seasons but if it comes down to any non-top line forward on this roster vs. the cap for Mangiapane you dont just trade Mangiapane to keep a Toffoli/Coleman/Backlund around.

 

[super6646]

Well, yeah. He's clearly a tier below them when they are both on pace for 100+ point seasons but if it comes down to any non-top line forward on this roster vs. the cap for Mangiapane you dont just trade Mangiapane to keep a Toffoli/Coleman/Backlund around.

Agreed. I've seen enough from Tofolli at this point to say with certainly he isn't 2/3 the player Mangiapane is at this point. His skating really concerns me.