Armchair GM III: No more stinky deadline rentals

[Dotter]

if that's what he's willing to give up you might as well not even pick up the phone. You already have Quincey so why bother putting the effort into trying to trade for another D with a package that at best probably gets you another D of Quincey's level.

that package is worth pretty much nothing unfortunately. he needs to stop being a stage 10 clinger and offer a legit package consisting of pieces with value to get the D we need. we have more than enough 3-6 Ds in our system.

Admittedly, I didn't put together a very comprehensive list. I'm sure Smith, Marchencho, other insignificant players would be included as well as Mantha or anyone else in the AHL for the right player.

I just don't see DD, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, or any vet guy (kronner, Zetty, Dats, Howard) being included on the trade block.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

For giggles, realistically, what players would Ken Holland consider trading in a package deal for a dman?

Helm (replaced by AA)
Quincey (contract due to expire)
Pulkennen (DRWs have too many small/soft euros)

Not Nyqusit, Tatar, Abby or anyone else who recently signed a contract. Not Holland's M.O. to sign a player then suddenly trade them.

I doubt Holland is giving up Howard anytime soon since Mrazek isn't proven yet and Wings don't have any legit "safe" backups. Not sure if Howard can bring back a positive return anyhow.

So that leaves us with only 3 players that have a bit of trade value? Anyone else?

In terms of established roster players? No one.

He isn't giving up any forward from the Wings current top nine or any defenseman from the Wings top four because that might mess up the playoff streak. Mantha is only prospect that might interest people, and then you are left with 4th line grinders and #6-7 defenseman to round out any potential package + a draft pick.

 

[Flowah]

A lot of players have trade value. But if you're limiting yourself to speculating about what Ken Holland will do you're probably not going very far. We've seen his MO for trades during the year. Small stuff. Picks, prospects going the other way. So we're probably not trading any roster players despite the fact that some of them do have value.

 

[hyduK]

Admittedly, I didn't put together a very comprehensive list. I'm sure Smith, Marchencho, other insignificant players would be included as well as Mantha or anyone else in the AHL for the right player.

I just don't see DD, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, or any vet guy (kronner, Zetty, Dats, Howard) being included on the trade block.

Nah for sure. I definitely see your point and pretty much agree it's a pipe dream. That's the frustrating part though. how are we ever gonna improve our defense if our GM isn't willing to give up something decent? We have an abundance of wingers, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to part with one to get a solid D man.

 

[Winger98]

Yandle would improve us. But what are you comfortable paying a 3rd pair + 1st PP guy?

With his ability to produce, I don't see how he comes in cheap. Probably looking at a ~10 mil bottom pair in the near future with Yandle and Ericsson.

right now, what are we paying the Quincey/Ericsson/Kindl/Smith combo? Around $12m? If we let Quincey walk and can move Kindl, we could just about break even there.

Also, I'm envisioning Yandle getting similar minutes to what he's getting with the Rangers, around 19. That's not really typical 3rd pair minutes.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Admittedly, I didn't put together a very comprehensive list. I'm sure Smith, Marchencho, other insignificant players would be included as well as Mantha or anyone else in the AHL for the right player.

I just don't see DD, Nyquist, Tatar, Abby, or any vet guy (kronner, Zetty, Dats, Howard) being included on the trade block.

and its why KH is a bottom feeder GM

you cant build on the fly if you are unwilling to make the right trade at the right time and that means moving quality assets

and if detroit still dosent have the right assets to move outside larkin or mrazek then his entire building on the fly has been a complete and utter waste of time

 

[Actual Thought*]

and its why KH is a bottom feeder GM

you cant build on the fly if you are unwilling to make the right trade at the right time and that means moving quality assets

and if detroit still dosent have the right assets to move outside larkin or mrazek then his entire building on the fly has been a complete and utter waste of time

Is your keyboard broken? It looks like you typed "KH is a bottom feeder GM".

 

[Shaman464]

Is your keyboard broken? It looks like you typed "KH is a bottom feeder GM".

KH, since 2009, has been in the bottom half of GMs in terms of moves he has made. His asset management and defense drafting have been among the worst in the league.

 

[DATS-O-MATIC]

First of all I doubt Blues would make that trade, they'll want Larkin. That said, I wouldn't pay Nyquist/Tatar + DeKeyser for Shattenkirk. That's too much to pay for a guy that's going to be an UFA next year. Even if he did sign, Wings are going to desperately miss DD. He's our best shut-down guy.

Wings can afford to lose one (or both) of Nyquist/Tatar since Pulkennen will be returning soon. I would do a trade around that for 1-year deal of Shatty. Blues wouldn't though... so it doesn't matter.

And before someone says "just sign him", sure... but how do you know he wants to be in Detroit. Detroit isn't a destination place for players anymore. There's a possiblity he would want severe overpayment; a payment that wouldn't work under the CBA. That's a risk I wouldn't comprise for Dekeyser. No way, no how!

lmao, they can't afford to lose either, much less both; Pulkkinen needs to shipped (maybe Mantha for SHatty cough, cough, +1st/picks + whoever (Helm, AA, Jurco,)+ prospect to land a #2 RHPMD

 

[Flowah]

KH, since 2009, has been in the bottom half of GMs in terms of moves he has made. His asset management and defense drafting have been among the worst in the league.

If you make the playoffs every year without selling the system you cannot be a bottom feeding GM. At worst, Holland is average. Or maybe if you want to qualify "bottom feeder" to his ability to make trades. As a whole, Holland is at least average.

 

[Actual Thought*]

KH, since 2009, has been in the bottom half of GMs in terms of moves he has made. His asset management and defense drafting have been among the worst in the league.

By what criteria are you basing such an idea? Seems a pretty tricky thing to quantify. Just your opinion or do you have some super duper algorithm used to calculate such immeasurable things?

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Is Larkin a lucky pick as well? Or do those just go to the scouting staff

The only thing holland isn't good in is trades and that's really only recently

 

[Claypool]

Is Larkin a lucky pick as well? Or do those just go to the scouting staff

The only thing holland isn't good in is trades and that's really only recently

Anything good Holland does is luck. He can't possibly be a good GM.

 

[Shaman464]

If you make the playoffs every year without selling the system you cannot be a bottom feeding GM. At worst, Holland is average. Or maybe if you want to qualify "bottom feeder" to his ability to make trades. As a whole, Holland is at least average.

I didn't say he was a bottom feeder, I said bottom half, and with 16/30 teams making the playoffs at least 1 bottom half GM makes it every year. That would be Holland.

By what criteria are you basing such an idea? Seems a pretty tricky thing to quantify. Just your opinion or do you have some super duper algorithm used to calculate such immeasurable things?

How about how he has let multiple high value players walk away from the Wings without any assets in return? Or the fact that the last high impact D-man this team has drafted was Kronwall?

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Is Larkin a lucky pick as well? Or do those just go to the scouting staff

The only thing holland isn't good in is trades and that's really only recently

Surely you know by know? Good player drafted? Great job by the scouting staff, despite Holland. Bad player drafted? Holland sucks!

Good player drafted during Jim Nill era? Jim Nill is a genius! Bad player drafted during Jim Nill era? Holland is an idiot who should've fallen on his sword to let Nill take over! etc etc

As for not being good at trades, there's so few of them its hard to even judge

 

[SpookyTsuki]

I didn't say he was a bottom feeder, I said bottom half, and with 16/30 teams making the playoffs at least 1 bottom half GM makes it every year. That would be Holland.



How about how he has let multiple high value players walk away from the Wings without any assets in return? Or the fact that the last high impact D-man this team has drafted was Kronwall?

Snow is in the bottom half. So is benning. Sackic isn't great. What about the Nashville gm? Winnipeg?

Countless teams make the playoffs with a mediocre gm holland isn't the only "mediocre" gm to make it

Won't argue there wings suck at drafting dmen. I really don't know any player he let go of without trading. Hudler is really the only one. So he sucks because he let hudler go?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I watch a decent amount of games around the league, and I still see it. It's not super common, but again, more common than what should be expected from a Norris winning defenseman.

Is his shot surprisession good because he is good defensively? Or because he is so good offensively? I have been trying to understand that stat more, I follow Burtch and some others because I do think fancy stats are intriguing. Though I don't take them as the end all, be all. If you could shed some light, I'd appreciate it.

Personally... I'd like to see an All-around defense trophy (Norris) and a trophy for best offensive defenseman, or something similar to an Art Ross for defenseman. I think it has shifted too much recently.

Here's a decent article on shot suppression:

http://www.progressivehockey.com/2014/09/shot-suppression-is-name-of-game.html

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

By what criteria are you basing such an idea? Seems a pretty tricky thing to quantify. Just your opinion or do you have some super duper algorithm used to calculate such immeasurable things?

Does this statement mean the opposite? Are you saying that he's not?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I didn't say he was a bottom feeder, I said bottom half, and with 16/30 teams making the playoffs at least 1 bottom half GM makes it every year. That would be Holland.



How about how he has let multiple high value players walk away from the Wings without any assets in return? Or the fact that the last high impact D-man this team has drafted was Kronwall?

He's not a bottom half GM either.

Multiple high value players? I assume you mean Hudler, Filppula, and Hossa. Those are the only high value guys to walk out the door. Hudler blossomed out in Calgary. He wasn't worth 4M a year when he left. Filppula got replaced by Stephen Weiss (which didn't end up working out, but at the time, there was no reason to think it wouldn't). Hossa took more money than the Wings could offer to go to a younger, better team.

At no point during those seasons would it have made one iota of sense to deal any of those players for future assets because the team was in the playoff hunt. And once the draft comes around, nobody wants to trade anything for the negotiation rights to Jiri Hudler because he's not that level of player you'd do that for.

And on the defensive side, that's a really disingenuous complaint to make about Holland. Is that the entire job of the scouting department? Find players who have the kind of talent to be impact players? The scouting department that chose Landon Ferraro over Ryan O'Reilly or Thomas McCollum over Roman Josi, Slava Voynov, or Travis Hamonic?

Yes, they need to do a better job of drafting defensemen... but so does pretty much every other team in the league. Top pairing guys are hard to find. If the worst complaint you can make about your GM is that he can't land a top pairing defenseman in the draft, he's not doing too damn bad.

 

[Dotter]

Does this statement mean the opposite? Are you saying that he's not?

KH isn't a below average GM, he is a damn good GM with a consistent track record since his tenure in Detroit. You could argue he's not top 5 the past few years, but look nobody is. Top ranked GMs aren't static; they fluctuate year-to-year based on performance (and luck). One year Peter Chiarelli has a good season and is considered the best GM in hockey, then makes bad moves and then he's considered hot garbage. That is one example that "best" is not "static" year to year.

Unlike these "best" or "top" GMs in the league, Ken Holland has maintained consistency in making the playoffs, restocking the cupboards, and finding good players in various players (outside of trades).

If Red Wings fans' had their way, every 1st round pick would have been traded; Larkin would be playing for another team right now. Nyquist and Tatar would be traded for an aging dman that Danny Dekeyser already fills... a defenseman Ken Holland acquired for free.

People/fans pound away at 'trade', 'trade', 'trade' like handing out candy on Halloween night. Giving away pieces that make this team competitive for a 'push' and chance to go deep.

What makes KH so great is he doesn't give away his 1st rounders like candy. He doesn't get pressured into making bad trades. He generally makes good signing that doesn't handcuff the team. He acquires talent through other avenues without costing the team. His error ratio is low compared to other GMs around the league (all GMs make errors) but KH has generally had good judgement.

Some criticisms against Holland should be considered forward thinking by KH. He's not made any big / blockbuster trades, while the GMs that have haven't really benefited for it long term, in fact, in most cases, it has hurt their clubs future.

Every 'bad decision' you can point against KH, you can find other GMs with equally as bad or worse decisions at some point in their recent careers. While some years they have good years, some years that didn't pay off and they gotten fired for it. All while KH has consistently made the playoffs which is ultimately the owners (Illitch's) primary goal first-and-foremost.

You want to see KH get fired? That will be the begging of the end of Detroit Red Wings. That is when the real pain will begin. While KH will have the luxury to pick whatever original 6 team he wants to GM with countless job offers at his disposable, he'll be employed again in 3 seconds flat... and will flourish... he will begin another dynasty with his new club.

 

[Vladdy84]

Is Larkin a lucky pick as well? Or do those just go to the scouting staff

The only thing holland isn't good in is trades and that's really only recently

Disagree. He's made shrewd moves he had to make to try and compete and to replace injured players. Who did we really freaking lose? Sure we can look back at trades he should of made. But also it's good that he didn't make some trades.
And I subscribe to the opinion that teams always ask for more from the Wings due to past lopsided deals.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

He restocked the cupboard except for the defense which was the most important thing the Wings needed to address if he wanted to successfully rebuild on the fly. Now the Wings are in no man's land with no clear path towards contending again.

Larkin isn't going to get you there by himself. Not even half way.

If Datsyuk retires at the end of this contract...it ain't gonna be pretty. His seven million in cap space is going to return pennies on the dollar for what ever player(s) you replace him with. I'm having a tough time seeing Datsyuk come back at the end of next season if the Wings have added only a couple more first round exits to their resume, which looks very likely.

I'm just curious to find out how much longer is this "rebuild on the fly" supposed to take? If it takes more than five years, i really wouldn't call that a successful rebuild on the fly. It just means the Wings went from one rebuild to another rebuild. That's what happens when your core isn't good enough.

 

[Shaman464]

He's not a bottom half GM either.

Multiple high value players? I assume you mean Hudler, Filppula, and Hossa. Those are the only high value guys to walk out the door. Hudler blossomed out in Calgary. He wasn't worth 4M a year when he left. Filppula got replaced by Stephen Weiss (which didn't end up working out, but at the time, there was no reason to think it wouldn't). Hossa took more money than the Wings could offer to go to a younger, better team.

At no point during those seasons would it have made one iota of sense to deal any of those players for future assets because the team was in the playoff hunt. And once the draft comes around, nobody wants to trade anything for the negotiation rights to Jiri Hudler because he's not that level of player you'd do that for.

And on the defensive side, that's a really disingenuous complaint to make about Holland. Is that the entire job of the scouting department? Find players who have the kind of talent to be impact players? The scouting department that chose Landon Ferraro over Ryan O'Reilly or Thomas McCollum over Roman Josi, Slava Voynov, or Travis Hamonic?

Yes, they need to do a better job of drafting defensemen... but so does pretty much every other team in the league. Top pairing guys are hard to find. If the worst complaint you can make about your GM is that he can't land a top pairing defenseman in the draft, he's not doing too damn bad.

First about scouting/development: Detroit has had this issues for nearly a decade, but there have been no major Holland induced shake ups. They are soldiering on the same way that they have. He is not responsible for all of scouting and development, but damn skippy he's responsible for putting competent in those positions. He's failed that that.

Second: When Hudler and Filpulla walked the team was in the same position it is today: No chance of really contending. They lost two players that could have been flipped for draft picks/prospects. I would also argue Alfie was another player that should have been dealt for assets. Holland's policy of almost never trading roster players has resulted in Detroit losing multiple players for nothing. Successful GMs when assets look like they will walk away will trade them for something instead of losing them. Holland also holds on to middling talent too long instead of selling high. Abdelkader is going to be a classic example of this. He would have gotten a king's ransom for him this season at the deadline, instead he overpaid him for 7 years.

Someone else trashed Pollie but he has been wonderful at actually at flipping talent that he can not afford or has no interest in staying in Nashville for younger players under controllable contracts. If Helm leaves after this season without any return it will be the final nail in the coffin on that argument.

Third and this is the biggest issue: Holland conservative attitude is destroying Detroit. He is way too attracted to known quantities. Williams, Quinecy, Bertuzzi, etc. and aging vets are his bread and butter. Instead of making bold moves, he always takes the 'continue the streak' safe track. I believe it is hurting Detroit as a destination for free agents. Why would you want to play for a team that considers eeking into the playoffs as where you want to spend your career? Players will either take the most money offered or will go to a place that gives them something other teams can't offer, be that a cup, or vicinity to family or what have you. Detroit no longer is a place you come to win cups.

Anyway, rant over.

 

[Frk It]

Bottom feeder GM was a bit much.

He's underwhelming with roster management, but his ultra-conservative nature at least hasn't gotten us burned selling an asset. Drafting and developing has still been great.

My ideal scenario is he slides to an advisor role and we have a more bold and creative guy move in. I'd like to keep him in the org, ideally. Even Hakan said no one can identify young talent like Holland.

 

[Dotter]

Second: When Hudler and Filpulla walked the team was in the same position it is today: No chance of really contending.

I have to hand it to you, you have the clearest hindsight vision that anyone has ever seen. I mean it is an absolute gift how you can look at the past with such clear vision to know exactly what the future of the team hold 3 years after!

It's almost like in 2016 you knew exactly what happened in 2013. Your hindsight can go back and know exactly that in 2013 game #7 against the Chicago Blackhawks like you knew Seabrook was going to score that OT winner, and your hindsight knew Filppula was going to get injured that game and wasn't going to be contributing factor... especially in OT when god knows you knew he wasn't going to score the OT winner!!

I sure wish I had your hindsight ability to see the past with such clear vision as you to know the mistakes Ken Holland made 2013.

Knowing what I know now there was no chance that Filppula would've possibly score that OT winner instead of Seabrook had he not gotten injured in that game #7!

You got the best hindsight skillz known to mankind. For that, I bow to you!