Speculation: Are Vancouver Canucks going to be Buyers or Sellers?

[BCNate]

Wait... you are retaining salary? With what cap?

There are no more "lower end teams" looking to fill out their roster or get to the cap floor. Teams want sweeteners like 1sts. I think you are being very optimistic on Canucks cap situation.

Not sure I get your point. Canucks have zero cap issue whatsoever next season. They can sign their players and still be right at the cap, even if it doesn't increase, without moving on from any bad deals. Run your numbers. There is no issue at all, unless you consider losing a guy like Stecher, Fantenberg, Schaller or Leivo a huge loss.

If they are looking to add a top 6 like I suggested, they will need to free up some space though.

Following year gets tougher with EP and Hughes needing new deals. They will need to get out from the Louie Eriksson deal. I agree, it will cost, and really hurt. I'd value Hoglander higher than a 1st, but if you'd rather it be a first, go for it.

 

[StreetHawk]

How much money are you allocating to Markstrom, Tanev, Virtanen, Leivo, Gaudette, and Motte? My guess is just to return these players, you're paying ~$7m more than you paid for them this year.
How are you getting rid of Baertchi, Eriksson and Sutter.

The Canucks have a very good 4 piece core, their #1 goalie is a UFA, 4 of the 6 defensman are over 30.

I asked the previous poster that question, because it seems like people who state those things don't actually pay attention to the salary cap.

If we assume that the rookie bonuses that the Canucks have to push into next season equals the salary cap increase of $2.5 mill to make an $84 mill salary cap then any increase to player salaries have to come from paying someone else less.

Leivo and Schaller are ufa. Cost for them is $3.4 mill. Replace them for $1 mill each so you save $1.4 mill.

Gaudette has slowed down a bit but he’d likely still get a bridge deal. So say it’s around $1.2-$1.4 per season. Motte likely has to battle his way via arbitration. Not much productive from him so limited increase. Virtanen is on a 20 goal and 40 point pace with arbitration rights. Could cost anywhere from $2.5 - $3.3 per for him depending on how he finishes and what the arbitration numbers could be. So could be short around $800k or more to keep those 3 guys unless the replacements for Schaller and Leivo come in lower.

Replace Fantenberg with a similar contract.
Tanev and Stecher combine for $6.8 mill. I don’t see Stecher coming back. They likely trade him and promote someone from Utica like Rafferty. So saves $1.3 mill. Tanev May be the one to be sacrificed.
Markstrom to keep him looking around $1.5-$2 mill more per year approximately.
Could come from Tanev’s spot.

that’s if they can’t move a sutter, Sven contract even with some retention or taking back a contract. Have to factor in the replacement cost for that roster spot.

Canucks are eating $2.3 mill in dead space by keeping Sven in the A. If they can move that out it would cover Markstrom’s cap increase easily.

 

[4Twenty]

Markstrom- 3x 5.75, no no movement clauses (may be exposed to Seattle depending on Demko/Dipietro's development over the next year)
Tanev- 3x5, no no movement clauses
Virtanen- 2 or 3x 3
Gaudette, Motte- 2x1.75 bridge deals
Leivo 2x2

I think you are pretty close with your +$7 mil #.

Sutter and Baertschi likely return very little, but probably don't cost a ton to move with some salary retention. They are on expiring deals and could help some lower end team fill out their roster or get to the cap floor. Eriksson will be a high cap hit, low cash cost player after July 1. He will hurt to move. May even be him at 50% and Hoglander.

Which one of Hughes, Miller, Horvat, Boeser, EP is not in your 4 player core?

Markstrom being UFA isn't a huge deal in my eyes. He has a ton of value to the Canucks, but I don't think is going to get a massive long term deal elsewhere. He is a top 15 NHL starter.

4 D over 30? Yes, but 2 of them that you are counting are 29 and 30 right now. Not exactly over the hill. Edler is our only D that is up there in age, and even still is only 33. Benn is replacement level, so not worried about him.

This will not fit under the salary cap

 

[4Twenty]

If we assume that the rookie bonuses that the Canucks have to push into next season equals the salary cap increase of $2.5 mill to make an $84 mill salary cap then any increase to player salaries have to come from paying someone else less.

Leivo and Schaller are ufa. Cost for them is $3.4 mill. Replace them for $1 mill each so you save $1.4 mill.

Gaudette has slowed down a bit but he’d likely still get a bridge deal. So say it’s around $1.2-$1.4 per season. Motte likely has to battle his way via arbitration. Not much productive from him so limited increase. Virtanen is on a 20 goal and 40 point pace with arbitration rights. Could cost anywhere from $2.5 - $3.3 per for him depending on how he finishes and what the arbitration numbers could be. So could be short around $800k or more to keep those 3 guys unless the replacements for Schaller and Leivo come in lower.

Replace Fantenberg with a similar contract.
Tanev and Stecher combine for $6.8 mill. I don’t see Stecher coming back. They likely trade him and promote someone from Utica like Rafferty. So saves $1.3 mill. Tanev May be the one to be sacrificed.
Markstrom to keep him looking around $1.5-$2 mill more per year approximately.
Could come from Tanev’s spot.

that’s if they can’t move a sutter, Sven contract even with some retention or taking back a contract. Have to factor in the replacement cost for that roster spot.

Canucks are eating $2.3 mill in dead space by keeping Sven in the A. If they can move that out it would cover Markstrom’s cap increase easily.

We just totally disagree on Markstrom. The deal will start with a 6 imo.

They’ll be in tough to return the same team let alone improve it.

can’t see another team acquiring a $3.4m AHLer unless you’re adding a 2nd round pick.

same goes for Sutter and Eriksson.

This is why I think they should push now. It’s only going to get tougher.

 

[BCNate]

This will not fit under the salary cap

Canucks have 1.8 under this years's cap. Next year replace Stecher and Shaller with rookie contracts and you have $4.3 Million in space next year. Add $7mil from above and you are $2.7 above the cap. Between cap increase, and LTIR , they will be fine.

 

[StreetHawk]

We just totally disagree on Markstrom. The deal will start with a 6 imo.

They’ll be in tough to return the same team let alone improve it.

can’t see another team acquiring a $3.4m AHLer unless you’re adding a 2nd round pick.

same goes for Sutter and Eriksson.

This is why I think they should push now. It’s only going to get tougher.

Sven is the type of contract teams come calling about after July 3 if they haven’t gotten what they want. They weigh whether it’s best to give germ to a ufa that isn’t a key piece or whether they take a guy with 1 year left. Look at what Frolik and Scandella returned this year as upcoming ufa.
Aside from an ahl contract nothing but cap space to give up.

Sutter, issue with him is injuries. Missed almost 2/5 years worth of games so far. Would need a strong playoff showing to make any team want him and even that likely comes with retention or a contract coming back.

Markstrom his salary will be determined by the market. Detroit could pay him over $6 mill if he wants to go through another couple years of rebuilding like he did in Vancouver. Holtby and Lehner would hit the market along with Greiss.

 

[BCNate]

We just totally disagree on Markstrom. The deal will start with a 6 imo.

They’ll be in tough to return the same team let alone improve it.

can’t see another team acquiring a $3.4m AHLer unless you’re adding a 2nd round pick.

same goes for Sutter and Eriksson.

This is why I think they should push now. It’s only going to get tougher.

I get what you are saying, but add a 1st to Eriksson next offseason to get him moved if that is what it takes. It will hurt for sure, but if that is worst case to make things work, all good. If that is worst case, we have nothing to worry about.

 

[4Twenty]

Sven is the type of contract teams come calling about after July 3 if they haven’t gotten what they want. They weigh whether it’s best to give germ to a ufa that isn’t a key piece or whether they take a guy with 1 year left. Look at what Frolik and Scandella returned this year as upcoming ufa.
Aside from an ahl contract nothing but cap space to give up.

Sutter, issue with him is injuries. Missed almost 2/5 years worth of games so far. Would need a strong playoff showing to make any team want him and even that likely comes with retention or a contract coming back.

Markstrom his salary will be determined by the market. Detroit could pay him over $6 mill if he wants to go through another couple years of rebuilding like he did in Vancouver. Holtby and Lehner would hit the market along with Greiss.

Neither Scandella nor Frolik were playing in the AHL.

Agree on Sutter.

Still think it starts with a 6.

 

[4Twenty]

Canucks have 1.8 under this years's cap. Next year replace Stecher and Shaller with rookie contracts and you have $4.3 Million in space next year. Add $7mil from above and you are $2.7 above the cap. Between cap increase, and LTIR , they will be fine.

This math doesn’t add up

 

[BCNate]

This math doesn’t add up

Available now: +1.8
Open up by losing Stecher, Schaller and adding rookie deals: +2.5
Available for 2020: +4.3
Add increased: -7.0

Net cap available: -2.7, covered by cap increase and any LTIR. Not really any cause for concern at all.

 

[GOilers88]

Canucks have 1.8 under this years's cap. Next year replace Stecher and Shaller with rookie contracts and you have $4.3 Million in space next year. Add $7mil from above and you are $2.7 above the cap. Between cap increase, and LTIR , they will be fine.

If they're smart they'll keep Stetcher.

 

[voxel]

Not sure I get your point. Canucks have zero cap issue whatsoever next season. They can sign their players and still be right at the cap, even if it doesn't increase, without moving on from any bad deals. Run your numbers. There is no issue at all, unless you consider losing a guy like Stecher, Fantenberg, Schaller or Leivo a huge loss.

If they are looking to add a top 6 like I suggested, they will need to free up some space though.

Following year gets tougher with EP and Hughes needing new deals. They will need to get out from the Louie Eriksson deal. I agree, it will cost, and really hurt. I'd value Hoglander higher than a 1st, but if you'd rather it be a first, go for it.

You have 4 D and 1 goalie signed next season. Tanev and Markstrom will want raises. You can afford one and then have to pay at least $1-2M to replace the other.

The premise of this thread is for Canucks to be able to ADD a forward or D. I'm saying you can't. You need to dump a forward with a sweetener.

 

[BCNate]

If they're smart they'll keep Stetcher.

Ideally they would, but I don't think they can. They are going to lose a few supporting players this offseason. I agree though, it will hurt a bit.

 

[4Twenty]

Available now: +1.8
Open up by losing Stecher, Schaller and adding rookie deals: +2.5
Available for 2020: +4.3
Add increased: -7.0

Net cap available: -2.7, covered by cap increase and any LTIR. Not really any cause for concern at all.

That’s not how it works.

but you’re not concerned so I’ll just leave it at that.

 

[BCNate]

That’s not how it works.

but you’re not concerned so I’ll just leave it at that.

Explain then.....

 

[BCNate]

You have 4 D and 1 goalie signed next season. Tanev and Markstrom will want raises. You can afford one and then have to pay at least $1-2M to replace the other.

The premise of this thread is for Canucks to be able to ADD a forward or D. I'm saying you can't. You need to dump a forward with a sweetener.

We are both saying the same thing. Yes, if they want to add, they have to move a contract with a sweetener. I agree with you there.

 

[Paulinvancouver]

If you have a young group and they put themselves in a playoff position. I think you make at least a small add to give the current group a chance to play meaningful games down the stretch and hopefully some games in april.

THIS GUY.
This guy f***s.
f*** her right in the p***y.

 

[zcaptain]

Schaller has zero value, could be placed on waivers and I doubt he's claimed. Sutter won't fetch more than a conditional late pick unless we retain salary. Tanev and Markstrom are our chips if we sell which Benning won't. Should be able to get a 2nd round pick for each of them + conditional picks on them re-signingor finals/cup victory. Stetcher won't be traded or qualified because Benning doesn't believe or have any concept of asset management.

Your trying to hit home runs of a sort trading Tanev and Markstrom

Unless you have not noticed the Canucks are pretty decent this season, largly due to guys like Markstrom and Tanev

Schaller, Stecher and Sutter are depth players if traded, purchased for a long run in the playoffs, where injuries can not be waited on, and for the most part it is the team with the greatest depth that wins the Stanley Cup

I think the values are close for what they are...…...

 

[Cogburn]

Gear will find a way to fire the bonuses under the cap. We might have to walk from the Schallers and Stechers of the team, and possible trade off a Baertschi or buy out an Eriksson, but Tanev and Markstrom will have to stick around...believe it or not their core players.

As for buyers or sellers, the Canucks are top team in the Pacific with games in hand over most other teams. I maintain we have to sell off a contract or two first, but if we are anything, I will say sellers now.

 

[voxel]

Gear will find a way to fire the bonuses under the cap. We might have to walk from the Schallers and Stechers of the team, and possible trade off a Baertschi or buy out an Eriksson, but Tanev and Markstrom will have to stick around...believe it or not their core players.

As for buyers or sellers, the Canucks are top team in the Pacific with games in hand over most other teams. I maintain we have to sell off a contract or two first, but if we are anything, I will say sellers now.

You seriously want to buy out Eriksson and have dead $5.6M cap next season? And you have to replace the player also so that's another $1M on top.

Loui Eriksson Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Baertschi isn't as bad.

Sven Baertschi Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[bandwagonesque]

You seriously want to buy out Eriksson and have dead $5.6M cap next season? And you have to replace the player also so that's another $1M on top.

Loui Eriksson Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Baertschi isn't as bad.

Sven Baertschi Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think Eriksson can easily be traded with retention to a team with room for his cap hit after his roster bonus is paid next summer. He'll be owed 5 million total cash over two seasons and full retention will convey 6 million to his new team, leaving them with a serviceable bottom-6 forward they don't have to pay and a million dollars cash over two years. One proposal I thought of is Eriksson at 50 percent retention and Baertschi to Ottawa next summer. Baertschi's front-loaded contract pays him 2.4 million next season. Ottawa would be getting 2 seasons of Eriksson and 1 of Baertschi for a total of 1.4 million in real money. That's the equivalent of 3 seasons of a roster spot on a young, rebuilding team filled by a fairly solid veteran forward for less than they could fill those spots at the league minimum.

 

[voxel]

I think Eriksson can easily be traded with retention to a team with room for his cap hit after his roster bonus is paid next summer. He'll be owed 5 million total cash over two seasons and full retention will convey 6 million to his new team, leaving them with a serviceable bottom-6 forward they don't have to pay and a million dollars cash over two years. One proposal I thought of is Eriksson at 50 percent retention and Baertschi to Ottawa next summer. Baertschi's front-loaded contract pays him 2.4 million next season. Ottawa would be getting 2 seasons of Eriksson and 1 of Baertschi for a total of 1.4 million in real money. That's the equivalent of 3 seasons of a roster spot on a young, rebuilding team filled by a fairly solid veteran forward for less than they could fill those spots at the league minimum.

A few flaws in the theory. Ottawa have plenty of young forwards that needs playing time (Batherson, Norris, Paul) and I'm not sure they care to take roster dumps. Second... 50% retention means you are eating $4M+ dead cap and then need to replace those two next year. I feel the best the Canucks can do is find a LTIR player to trade Eriksson for.

 

[bandwagonesque]

A few flaws in the theory. Ottawa have plenty of young forwards that needs playing time (Batherson, Norris, Paul) and I'm not sure they care to take roster dumps. Second... 50% retention means you are eating $4M+ dead cap and then need to replace those two next year. I feel the best the Canucks can do is find a LTIR player to trade Eriksson for.

The Canucks would be freeing up about 8.6 million, taking into consideration that Baertschi's salary is currently buried, and spending only 3 million to ship out Eriksson and creating only one roster vacancy. His contributions can be replaced or exceeded for 2 million and the remainder can go to resigning current players.

 

[GOilers88]

I’d be intrigued to read your projected 2020/21 Canucks lineup.

I think it'll be similar to this year's, but with all their core pieces putting more experience under their belts. I'm sure there will be some players replaced by others, but I think once Hughes, Pettersson and Demko mature and gain experience it's going to check off three huge boxes for a franchise. #1 Center, #1 Defenseman, and a solid Starter, though with Markstrom they already have that. I'd say the foundation for this team has been built quite well. Adding in Miller, Boeser, Horvat, Edler, Myers and whoever replaces Tanev and I think they look pretty good. They're already a wildcard team and because of their division are in the mix for that as well. They don't need any lottery picks, or three to four years of rebuilding time. I think they're almost there and getting the kids games is all they need.