Speculation: Are The Canucks For Real This Time?

[Diversification]

So... they're now on track to play 92 point Colorado, vs 88 point Seattle. (and who knows, that could change again tomorrow.)

Does it really matter that much?

If they continue to play well - keeping high danger chances to a minimum, being tidy in their defensive zone exits, defusing chances by challenging the puck carrier in the NZ (note the distinction between that and winning) - against quality competition, then yes, it means something. No guarantee that they'll push that forwards into next season. But it means that they're still playing well.

 

[Diversification]

Here's a decent illustration of how things have progressed with this team: When Lukas Reichel scored late to make it 3-2, did any of you think: Oh boy, here we go again... we're going to give up the lead or at best hang on for dear life? Or was it ho-hum, they'll shake it off and play like they have been and guide it home no problem?

For me, it was definitely the latter.

 

[M2Beezy]

Here's a decent illustration of how things have progressed with this team: When Lukas Reichel scored late to make it 3-2, did any of you think: Oh boy, here we go again... we're going to give up the lead or at best hang on for dear life? Or was it ho-hum, they'll shake it off and play like they have been and guide it home no problem?

For me, it was definitely the latter.

Id be lying if I even knew which game you were referring to

 

[Diversification]

Id be lying if I even knew which game you were referring to

Yesterday vs. Blackhawks.

 

[racerjoe]

Well, I certainly admire his optimism. There’s no way he personally wrote that message without making some spelling or grammar mistakes.

He also would have wrote it in crayon.

 

[VanJack]

You look at the blueline, and shake your head. How are they doing it?

Huge minutes for Hughes and Hronek; and sheltered minutes for guys like Rathbone, Burroughs. But right now Bear and Myers are probably playing their best hockey of the season.

But this winning streak still doesn't obscure the fact that Allvin has a job on his hands revamping his blueline in the off-season.

 

[vanarchy]

I'm not gonna get my hopes up. We still need at least a few more dmen.

 

[canucksfan]

You look at the blueline, and shake your head. How are they doing it?

Huge minutes for Hughes and Hronek; and sheltered minutes for guys like Rathbone, Burroughs. But right now Bear and Myers are probably playing their best hockey of the season.

But this winning streak still doesn't obscure the fact that Allvin has a job on his hands revamping his blueline in the off-season.

If they can buyout OEL and get rid of Myers that will be a huge step into improving the blueline. Still need to acquire players which is tough to do.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Look at our schedule. Look at who we’re playing.

It doesn’t mean shit. These games are a confidence booster, that’s it. None of it matters if we start the year 3-8-2 next year.

Tocchet is certainly better than Boudreau but Tocchet arguably has better players in front of him including Petey breaking out.

Beauvillier > Pearson
Di Giuseppe, Aman, Joshua, Dries, hell even Studnicka are all better than Highmore, Lammikko, Richardson, Dowling, Petan, Chiasson, etc

Take it with a grain of salt. We are ruining our draft position while also deluding ourselves that these games are “meaningful” when it really isn’t.

 

[pitseleh]

This is the same as the Boudreau bump. The team goes from bad to ok in terms of underlying results because of a combination of better coaching and a weak schedule, but looks good because the things that were bad luck before have turned into good luck at the same time.

That said, between Pettersson, Kuzmenko, Hughes, Hronek, and Demko, you might now be able to project $20+ million in surplus value for next season, and the run should make it easier to move some players to free up cap to build out the roster. There’s a realistic path to a pretty good team next year.

With the contracts coming due that will be hard to maintain, but one step at a time.

 

[Shareefruck]

Look at our schedule. Look at who we’re playing.

It doesn’t mean shit. These games are a confidence booster, that’s it. None of it matters if we start the year 3-8-2 next year.

Tocchet is certainly better than Boudreau but Tocchet arguably has better players in front of him including Petey breaking out.

Beauvillier > Pearson
Di Giuseppe, Aman, Joshua, Dries, hell even Studnicka are all better than Highmore, Lammikko, Richardson, Dowling, Petan, Chiasson, etc

Take it with a grain of salt. We are ruining our draft position while also deluding ourselves that these games are “meaningful” when it really isn’t.

Horvat is a pretty big one to miss in Boudreau's favor.

I would also strongly disagree that Dries and Studnicka are better than Lammikko and Highmore, personally (unless you were just comparing them collectively, in which case I would agree).

The Pettersson bump is also a complete wash considering that Miller and Pettersson have just perfectly switched roles/levels of effectiveness between the two Coaching periods. However bad Pettersson was when Boudreau got him was pretty much how bad Miller was when Tocchet got him, and however amazing Pettersson was when Tocchet got him is somewhat comparable to how amazing Miller was when Boudreau got him, more or less.

Tocchet has also had the disadvantage of not having Demko play like a god, although Hughes' dramatic improvement kind of negates that as well.

 

[Orr4Norris]

Here's a decent illustration of how things have progressed with this team: When Lukas Reichel scored late to make it 3-2, did any of you think: Oh boy, here we go again... we're going to give up the lead or at best hang on for dear life? Or was it ho-hum, they'll shake it off and play like they have been and guide it home no problem?

For me, it was definitely the latter.

Here’s the real problem though…would you have cared either way? Back at the beginning of the season, most fans would be really hoping that they would hold on to lead. Now? It’s a lot easier to not collapse when there’s no pressure. When a loss doesn’t really matter.

I went to a few live games early season and I went to a few recently, and the atmosphere is so different. Nobody in that building really cares about the score. They’re just there to have a good time and they’re happy no matter what. I saw the Minnesota Wild loss, and nobody was in a bad mood at the end of the game. Everyone was there for a good time and having fun. Zero pressure.

 

[Diversification]

Here’s the real problem though…would you have cared either way? Back at the beginning of the season, most fans would be really hoping that they would hold on to lead. Now? It’s a lot easier to not collapse when there’s no pressure. When a loss doesn’t really matter.

I went to a few live games early season and I went to a few recently, and the atmosphere is so different. Nobody in that building really cares about the score. They’re just there to have a good time and they’re happy no matter what. I saw the Minnesota Wild loss, and nobody was in a bad mood at the end of the game. Everyone was there for a good time and having fun. Zero pressure.

I agree that you can't replicate the pressure. And perhaps with the pressure, the team would revert to their early season ways and just bleed high danger chances and the floodgates would open. It's not disprovable, which is why this thread has been polarizing.

I guess you can lump me with with most Canucks fans who don't really care about the outcome. But what I am focusing on is the process. Are they playing the right way? Are we seeing them lapsing back into old habits?

So far, I like what I see. I've been waiting for them to play this way since the offseason after the bubble playoffs. I hoped at the time that Green would see that if the team were ever to take the next step, this kind of disciplined defensive system would have to be the foundation.

Will they be able to keep this up with more at stake? I don't rightly know. No one does.

But to my eye at least, it appears to be plausibly sustainable because it doesn't rely much on luck or even high quality personnel. Just teamwork and discipline. And when you have that and some decent offense, that's a team that can maintain a consistent level of play that should land you comfortably in the playoffs, especially in the West and in the Pacific Division.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

He also would have wrote it in crayon.

Assuming he didn’t eat all his crayons first lol

 

[racerjoe]

Assuming he didn’t eat all his crayons first lol

 

[Diogenes92]

You look at the blueline, and shake your head. How are they doing it?

Huge minutes for Hughes and Hronek; and sheltered minutes for guys like Rathbone, Burroughs. But right now Bear and Myers are probably playing their best hockey of the season.

But this winning streak still doesn't obscure the fact that Allvin has a job on his hands revamping his blueline in the off-season.

This is Myers favourite time of year.

No playoff stress. Boating season at Okanagan Lake is just around the corner.

 

[EpochLink]

This is Myers favourite time of year.

No playoff stress. Boating season at Okanagan Lake is just around the corner.

Myers ass getting ready for that Kelowna vibe

 

[Diversification]

Myers ass getting ready for that Kelowna vibe

 

[EpochLink]

What the f*** did I just watch

 

[thecupismine]

There are certain things that are for real. Hughes and Petterson both look like they've taken real steps to be leaders, and look like they can thrive with even larger roles. Hughes won't be playing 27 minutes a night/Petey 22 regularly, but you bet they'll be playing that many if we make the playoffs. Showing they can do that now is big for their confidence for when the pressure moments arise next year.

The defensive results feel like a bit of a mirage outside of Hughes. Structural changes were big, as is the improved goaltending, but without significant changes at 3C and on the back-end it's still a bottom 10 team in the league defensively. Demko can cover up for a lot of the mistakes when he's on, but goalies tend to be like voodoo in their year-to-year performance.

With guys like Boesser (who is 100% being showcased right now given his deployment), Garland, Beauvillier, and Miller playing better & rebuilding their value, hopefully the team is able to flip one (likely Boesser or Garland, I think Miller stays) to reallocate cap space onto the backend/3C. Goes without saying OEL and/or Myers is also going to have to go to make that happen. Without at least one top 4 defenseman and a 3C, I don't see this group cracking the top 8 without a lot of things going their way.

Most importantly though, management seems to have hit the mark with their pro scouting, which is perhaps the best indicator that the off-season will bring about the right changes. Hitting on guys like Aman, Kuzmenko, Joshua, Beauvillier, and Hronek (jury is still out on Mikheyev given injury) is big, and inspires a lot more confidence than offseasons filled with the Beagles, Ferlands, and the Myers of the world.

If the roster looks something like this going into next season I'll believe in them making the playoffs:

Beauvillier-Petterson-Kuzmenko
Mikheyev-Miller-Giuseppe
Podkolzin-Dvorak-Garland
Joshua-Aman-Hoglander

Hughes-Bear
Gavrikov-Hronek
OEL-Wolanin

Demko
Silvov

If OEL is gone you can put any replacement level D in his spot and they'll perform at the same level. Boesser is flipped for an overpaid 3C in this case, don't focus too heavily on Dvorak as it could be a number of names in that spot. Alternatively a 3C can be signed in FA if Boesser is flipped for a pick/nothing.

 

[Hammer79]

The changes that they have made will probably be enough to challenge for the WC next year. BB was a fan favorite, but he was past his expiry date. The team got too reliant on Bo tipping in goals up front on the PP. With Bo sold high to Long Island, this is Petey's team now as far as I'm concerned.

Saying that they could challenge for the WC is a pretty low bar. This team is still years away from going deep in the playoffs. OEL, Myers contracts are boat anchors and BB is paid about double what he's worth. We have nothing of significance in the development pipeline. There just aren't enough cheap ELC's to outperform their value to offset the amount of overpayment to vets on the roster. That's why we will be middling for the foreseeable future.

 

[Sedinery]

Lets get real. Where do we start?

- meaningless games
- no pressure
- horrible low quality opponents
- Demko carrying them

We have seen this act before. The Bruce bounce was more pronounced and against a tougher schedule with better results.

Everyone thought we were so close, just ran out of time..unfinished business

How did that work out for us?

This team needs better D and bigger faster fowards. It is not a team that can compete on a regular basis

 

[CherryToke]

You look at the blueline, and shake your head. How are they doing it?

Huge minutes for Hughes and Hronek; and sheltered minutes for guys like Rathbone, Burroughs. But right now Bear and Myers are probably playing their best hockey of the season.

But this winning streak still doesn't obscure the fact that Allvin has a job on his hands revamping his blueline in the off-season.

For one thing, they are not giving up the defensive zone easily like they have for the last 10 years. Teams have to actually work to gain the zone suddenly.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Just a general comment. It would be nice if the NHL rewarded teams for doing well after the trade deadline. Use some sort of formula where once the trade line passed, the teams that tanked lost draft position and the one that did well got rewarded. It certainly would make the last 20 games more interesting, and have teams like Chi get their asses kicked for having a roster like the one the Canucks played against.

 

[mathonwy]

Is this the new tank thread?