Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

[Brock Radunske]

Easy one....ill use last yr as a base. Took the Pres winners to 7 games and were in every game. Fast forward to now. Andersen has been a rock, the new lines has us looking better BUT we need to improve our TEAM defense. Notice the capitals...everyone is still screaming D..as a position.

My thought. Get a guy to play with Travis...Hainsey 2.0 would be nice. But before that a center to go with Kapenen and play off his speed. As well as give us depth since Goat isnt close and Miro needs to stay in the AHL for the full yr I think.

Many are blind to the fact..who wins the cup? The team with the hottest goalie and the team the hottest going in. Hard to stop a train on full tilt. Pitts is classic..last yr. Whatd they do? Finished on fire, a lot to do with Murray and they win it all. Everyone thought the Caps for sure..nope.

So if we were able to take a top team that far last yr..could we do it again but win ? Damn right..esp if Andy is hot and we make good moves the next cpl weeks. I could see us goin to the conference final. Its all on who we get or dont but more than that health and esp health of Freddy.

Not to nitpick but it was actually 6 games. All the OTs made it seem like more, for me at least. Just letting you know because the yahoos on the main board would be all over you if you said 7 games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're drawing far bigger conclusions about it than I am.

But do I think that we should look at our performance against contenders when discussing whether we are a contender? yes, of course.

I'm not drawing any conclusions, quite the opposite.

You can look at our performance all you want, I just think the sample sizes are too small to mean anything. Like this tidbit you posted a couple of hours ago: "BTW, our record against those 5 elite contenders this year is 5-2-0."

You posted this, not sure why you would take issue with me saying: "Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams ..." as that's exactly what you did yet your response is to say I'm putting words in your mouth?

Hey if you think this is meaningful going forward, god bless you my man. Don't bet the farm is my only advice, stick to "fun money".

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not to nitpick but it was actually 6 games. All the OTs made it seem like more, for me at least. Just letting you know because the yahoos on the main board would be all over you if you said 7 games.

Would only add that nobody thought "the Caps for sure", like seriously?

 

[ShaneFalco]

I dunno.....to me it seems the "elite" teams get 40+ shots and Andersen has to stand on his head to keep things close, or win - like last night. Without an upgrade to the D, he's not going to be able to that in a playoff series.

That 6 game series with Wash seems to have caused expectations for some to be out of whack

 

[zeke]

I'm not drawing any conclusions, quite the opposite.

true. what you're doing is accusing ME of drawing conclusions that I'm not.

You can look at our performance all you want, I just think the sample sizes are too small to mean anything. Like this tidbit you posted a couple of hours ago: "BTW, our record against those 5 elite contenders this year is 5-2-0."

You posted this, not sure why you would take issue with me saying: "Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams ..." as that's exactly what you did yet your response is to say I'm putting words in your mouth?

Hey if you think this is meaningful going forward, god bless you my man. Don't bet the farm is my only advice, stick to "fun money".

A betting man wouldn't ignore how a team played against certain calibre opponents, fwiw.

 

[Gary Nylund]

true. what you're doing is accusing ME of drawing conclusions that I'm not.

Nope, all I said was (and this is the exact quote):
Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams

And that's 100% true. Methinks thou dost protest too much.

A betting man wouldn't ignore how a team played against certain calibre opponents, fwiw.

A betting man ignores nothing and most importantly, considers carefully how much weight should be given to various factors. Hint - what you posted, our record against the 5 "elite contenders", sample size 7 games total means next to nothing.

 

[Razz]

I dunno.....to me it seems the "elite" teams get 40+ shots and Andersen has to stand on his head to keep things close, or win - like last night. Without an upgrade to the D, he's not going to be able to that in a playoff series.

That 6 game series with Wash seems to have caused expectations for some to be out of whack

In all fairness the Leafs were up 2-0 and had locked down the early part of the game. Cup contenders battle back and it showed in the shots. I'm not as worried about that. Besides, the Leafs weren't badly outshot, they still managed over 30. Not bad for being ahead for over half the game.

 

[-DeMo-]

Leafs are 5th in the league in ES GF%, 3rd in GF/60, and much improved 14th in GA/60; they lead the league in xGF/60, 4th in K rating (an amalgamation of advanced statistics), and 2nd in shot quality.

The Leafs have 3 lines that could stand in for a top line on most other teams. The Leafs have a solid backup, and a goaltender who can win games.

Boston? Toronto won all 4 games against them last season, and we're 2-1 against them this season. We were .500 against Tampa last season, and just 0-1 this season. Toronto shouldn't be scared of either of them. Toronto is 1-1 vs Vegas, 1-0 vs Winnipeg, 1-0 vs Nashville, and 1-1 vs Washington.

It's really strange to think that the Leafs aren't legitimate contenders, unless none of the aforementioned teams are either. The Leafs have an even or better record with almost every team ahead of them in the standings. Further, they have had the hardest part of the schedule so far, and now it gets easier, while most of the top opposing teams will get it more difficult.

**** all you sandbaggers - this team is for real.

to be cup contenders imo you need to look at your path and say we have a good chance at beating those teams we will play, so how do we beat Boston and Tampa who we expect to play in round 1 and 2? for example you used ES GF% as a positive for us since were 5th but failed to mention Boston and Tampa are ranked 1 and 2. so that stat really isn't a positive for us. GF/60 were also behind tampa in and just ahead of Boston in 5th, not much of an advantage, GA/60 were 14th while Boston is 1st and Tampa 7th again they have the advantage. we lead the league in xGF/60 but were also 4th worst team in xGA/60, where as Tampa and Boston are again top 10. then again Tampa is 1st in K rating I believe so no advantage there. I mean where is our advantage against Boston and Tampa as of today? when Tuuka and Vas are in net they have the best and second best GA per game of any team in the league, all while being in the top 5 in offense something this Leaf team isn't in even tho it's considered to be our biggest strength. what about Goaltending? well both Rask and Vas have better GAA/Sv$/HDsv% then Andersen does this year so not really an advantage there

at the end of the day statically were outmatched. in GF/G, GA/G, CF%.GF%,PP%, xGF%,Goalie Sv%. in all those category's were behind both Boston and Tampa right now. the only thing were better then Tampa at right now is PK%, and xGF/60 that's it they have the rest, and for Boston xGF/60 and K rating that's it I believe. so it seems right now if Tampa and Boston play there A game were pretty much going to lose. I mean it wouldn't be impossible to beat them if they're at there best but pretty close, our best hope is that they cool down and don't play to the level they've shown over the whole regular season to date and we play better then that, seems pretty unlikely and therefore for us to beat both those teams also seems unlikely.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Out-Possessed Again by a Heavy Team

In the last two games vs. the Ducks and Predators, the Leafs have been out-possessed 60-40 in each of the first, second and third periods. Score effects factor in, but the Predators controlled 72% of the shots on goal in the third period after tying the game up early in the final frame.

The Leafs aren’t incapable of tilting the ice in their favour and taking over games, but it’s usually achieved by hurrying the opposition into mistakes and forcing them into uncomfortable spots defensively through closing quickly all over the ice, and then coming at teams in waves. They tend to chase the puck a lot against teams like the Predators, Blues and Bruins, who have a lot of experience in how to be/play heavy; they’ll hit you off the puck and are aggressive activating their D into the forecheck/jamming the walls.

The Leafs are out-possessed in a lot of the games against these kinds of teams, but to their credit, through their speed, scoring depth and opportunistic offense, and some sublime goaltending from Andersen, they have gotten quite a few points and wins against the run of play.
The fact of the matter is that, while Toronto hung in admirably in every single game of the quarterfinal series, Washington edged out the Leafs in the playoffs last Spring for a lot of the same reasons. Looking at games like this one, it’s hard to dispel the notion that the Leafs don’t appear to be quite “there” yet 10 months later. That doesn’t mean they don’t have the speed, skill, depth and goaltending to make things very interesting, though.

Toronto Maple Leafs steal win vs. Nashville: On heavy teams, Kasperi Kapanen staking claim to permanent spot & more

 

[zeke]

Nope, all I said was (and this is the exact quote):
Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams

And that's 100% true. Methinks thou dost protest too much.

You said much more than that selected quote, of course, and made sure to imply that I was arguing that this was a conclusive piece of data.

A betting man ignores nothing and most importantly, considers carefully how much weight should be given to various factors. Hint - what you posted, our record against the 5 "elite contenders", sample size 7 games total means next to nothing.

Is it just sample size that's bothering you?

why didn't you say so?

Here's their records against everyone except the bottom 6 teams in the league - i.e. the dregs of the dregs.

TBL: 43gms, 28-13-3, 59pts, .686pts%, +0.88gdif
TOR: 45gms, 26-14-5, 57pts, .633pts%, +0.49gdiff
BOS: 38gms, 20-11-7, 47pts , .618pts%, +0.40gdiff

 

[Gary Nylund]

You said much more than that selected quote, of course, and made sure to imply that I was arguing that this was a conclusive piece of data.

Is that right? What part of what I said implies that you were "arguing that this was a conclusive piece of data."? I'll make it easy for you, here's the rest of what I said. I'm pretty sure there's absolutely zero there that implies anything of the sort (which is why I didn't include it as it's pretty lengthy) but hey, knock yourself out.

We'll see. Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams but the flip side of that is that we have not done well against the bottom feeders. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're inconsistent and unpredictable. I'd also say that at this point those games don't matter much anyway.

Boston has been beating up on bad teams and Leaf fans aren't giving them any credit, after all they're just bad teams and they'll come down to earth etc. If however we beat up on the bad teams I'm sure Leaf fans will say look how awesome we are. And if we don't do well I'm sure those fans will be quick to say that those games don't matter as we have no motivation being locked into 3rd place and all. And so it goes, I can't wait for the playoffs to start!

You said much more than that selected quote, of course, and made sure to imply that I was arguing that this was a conclusive piece of data.

Is it just sample size that's bothering you?

why didn't you say so?

Here's their records against everyone except the bottom 6 teams in the league - i.e. the dregs of the dregs.

TBL: 43gms, 28-13-3, 59pts, .686pts%, +0.88gdif
TOR: 45gms, 26-14-5, 57pts, .633pts%, +0.49gdiff
BOS: 38gms, 20-11-7, 47pts , .618pts%, +0.40gdiff

Ok so what's your point. You've given us the numbers, what's the relevance? Are you saying that this a better way of rating teams than just looking at the standings? Or are you saying that based on this TBL>>TOR>>BOS? Something else perhaps?

I'm asking because I don't want you thinking I'm putting words in your mouth. You have the floor.

 

[zeke]

Is that right? What part of what I said implies that you were "arguing that this was a conclusive piece of data."? I'll make it easy for you, here's the rest of what I said. I'm pretty sure there's absolutely zero there that implies anything of the sort (which is why I didn't include it as it's pretty lengthy) but hey, knock yourself out.

We'll see. Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams but the flip side of that is that we have not done well against the bottom feeders. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're inconsistent and unpredictable. I'd also say that at this point those games don't matter much anyway.

Boston has been beating up on bad teams and Leaf fans aren't giving them any credit, after all they're just bad teams and they'll come down to earth etc. If however we beat up on the bad teams I'm sure Leaf fans will say look how awesome we are. And if we don't do well I'm sure those fans will be quick to say that those games don't matter as we have no motivation being locked into 3rd place and all. And so it goes, I can't wait for the playoffs to start!



Ok so what's your point. You've given us the numbers, what's the relevance? Are you saying that this a better way of rating teams than just looking at the standings? Or are you saying that based on this TBL>>TOR>>BOS? Something else perhaps?

I'm asking because I don't want you thinking I'm putting words in your mouth. You have the floor.

You seem to be making a really big deal out of a pretty simple observation that the discrepancy between the Leafs and Bruins records is completely contained within their performance against the dregs of the league. This might mean nothing. It might just be a fluke variance that the Bruins' superiority to the Leafs has been completely isolated to those teams, and not more evenly spread out against all caliber of opponents. On the other hand it might mean something. It might mean the Bruins are better, but that the good teams take games against the Leafs less seriously than games against the Bruins, allowing the Leafs to look better than they really are against the good teams. Or it might mean that the Leafs are a young team without the discpline and professional approach to take care of business against the bad teams, while the Bruins are the opposite. Or it might mean something else.

Either way, when certain posters point to each team's current record as conclusive proof of their difference in quality, I find it interesting to break it down and see exactly how and if it actually does that. And when certain posters claim that one team can't hope to match another come playoff time, I find it interesting to see how those teams have performed against a certain calibre of team so far. Because, of course, current record only means so much.

 

[Ratboy]

Not yet

 

[GodEmperor]

Why do people keep bringing up Anderson having to play well?

As far as I'm aware, Crawford, Fleury/Murray and Quick all had to stand on their heads for their "stacked" teams as well.

Goaltenders are part of the team, in the same way any player is supposed to do well for a team, goalies should be expected to do the same.

The Leafs are a contender if they play the current lines and maybe even work Leivo into the lineup alternating him and Martin instead of Moore who is as useless as Martin offensively without the hitting and way worse offensively than Leivo.

Would love to see

Kap-Auston-Willie
JVR-Bozak-Brown
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Hyman-Komarov-Leivo/Martin

That 4th line would be sick (for fourth line standards) regardless, either very gritty with immense speed in Hyman or grittyish (komarov) and a good mix of skill/offense with Hyman and Leivo.

I don't think Boston is considerably better and I think Vegas is still a question mark come playoff time, the only team that I think is way better at 100% is Tampa and I think the only way we beat them is through God tier Anderson and averagish Vassy performances.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You seem to be making a really big deal out of a pretty simple observation that the discrepancy between the Leafs and Bruins records is completely contained within their performance against the dregs of the league. This might mean nothing. It might just be a fluke variance that the Bruins' superiority to the Leafs has been completely isolated to those teams, and not more evenly spread out against all caliber of opponents. On the other hand it might mean something. It might mean the Bruins are better, but that the good teams take games against the Leafs less seriously than games against the Bruins, allowing the Leafs to look better than they really are against the good teams. Or it might mean that the Leafs are a young team without the discpline and professional approach to take care of business against the bad teams, while the Bruins are the opposite. Or it might mean something else.

Either way, when certain posters point to each team's current record as conclusive proof of their difference in quality, I find it interesting to break it down and see exactly how and if it actually does that. And when certain posters claim that one team can't hope to match another come playoff time, I find it interesting to see how those teams have performed against a certain calibre of team so far. Because, of course, current record only means so much.

I'm not making a big deal out of anything. You're the one who claimed that I was putting words in your mouth and are unable to show where I've done so. You were wrong, plain and simple

As far as these numbers go, I believe you've used the word "might" 6 times there and aren't attaching any meaning to these numbers. I don't think they're very meaningful either which leaves us with the question - why are you carpet-bombing us with these numbers if they don't mean anything? You're free to do so obviously, it would just be more interesting if you posted numbers that you thought were meaningful and told us what you thought the relevance is.

Cheers!

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think Boston is considerably better and I think Vegas is still a question mark come playoff time, the only team that I think is way better at 100% is Tampa and I think the only way we beat them is through God tier Anderson and averagish Vassy performances.

Not sure why anyone would have TB significantly ahead of Boston at this point. They've been on fire for a while now and while it seems to be trendy to say they'll cool off, they could cool off some and still be a very strong team. Plus we saw first hand how good they just a few days ago, they're very good, there's no two ways about it.

 

[zeke]

I'm not making a big deal out of anything. You're the one who claimed that I was putting words in your mouth and are unable to show where I've done so. You were wrong, plain and simple

As far as these numbers go, I believe you've used the word "might" 6 times there and aren't attaching any meaning to these numbers. I don't think they're very meaningful either which leaves us with the question - why are you carpet-bombing us with these numbers if they don't mean anything? You're free to do so obviously, it would just be more interesting if you posted numbers that you thought were meaningful and told us what you thought the relevance is.

Cheers!

I always use the word might. As in - the Bruins' current record "might" mean they are better than the Leafs, and "might" not.

And yes, you are the one making a big deal. Anytime the fact that the bruins and leafs' records are similar against all the good teams is mentioned, you make sure to tell everyone how meaningless you think that is. You even come up with arguments like sample size, and then ignore it when that is addressed for you. To cop a phrase, it sounds a lot like protesting overmuch.

 

[zeke]

Why do people keep bringing up Anderson having to play well?

As far as I'm aware, Crawford, Fleury/Murray and Quick all had to stand on their heads for their "stacked" teams as well.

Goaltenders are part of the team, in the same way any player is supposed to do well for a team, goalies should be expected to do the same.

yep.

You won't find many (any?) cup winners whose goalies aren't the best goalie in the playoffs that season.

 

[Joedoggy]

Only chance Leafs have of getting by the Bruins is to Move Babcock upstairs with a few line change books. Let Lou and D J handle the bench.

 

[Jeypic]

We definately have a tough path.. but I believe our team can give any team in the league a run for their money over seven games. That said... we are contenders. But it won’t be easy.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Only chance Leafs have of getting by the Bruins is to Move Babcock upstairs with a few Larry Nassar books. Let Lou and D J handle the bench.

Playoffs are long ways off, the Bruins could be in a slump going into the playoffs and the Leafs could be hot going into the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I always use the word might. As in - the Bruins' current record "might" mean they are better than the Leafs, and "might" not.

And yes, you are the one making a big deal. Anytime the fact that the bruins and leafs' records are similar against all the good teams is mentioned, you make sure to tell everyone how meaningless you think that is. You even come up with arguments like sample size, and then ignore it when that is addressed for you. To cop a phrase, it sounds a lot like protesting overmuch.

Sure thing Zeke. I'm still waiting for you to show me where it was that I put words in your mouth. You've repeated this accusation, but still haven't backed it up. Why not just admit you were wrong, then we can talk about sample sizes.

 

[zeke]

Sure thing Zeke. I'm still waiting for you to show me where it was that I put words in your mouth. You've repeated this accusation, but still haven't backed it up. Why not just admit you were wrong, then we can talk about sample sizes.

Sure thing, Gary.

My post:

2/3 of the year down and 5 teams have set themselves apart at the top of the pack - BOS, TB, VGK, NSH, WPG.

Of those 5 elite teams, i still don't buy the Golden Knights even a little bit. They are not contenders. Then again, out of the non-contenders, I still believe the Penguins are a legit elite contender.

So 5 contenders at this point - BOS, TB, NSH, WPG, PIT.


Then there's a group just outside of these 5 that are almost-contenders - WSH, TOR, STL, SJS, DAL and maybe a couple others. These teams have 1/3 of the season left to step their game up or improve their roster.

For me, I think the Leafs' best is ahead of them - I don't think that at any point yet have they been firing on all cylinders. I'm guessing they close the gap with those contenders going forward, and a deadline addition or two would help.

BTW, our record against those 5 elite contenders this year is 5-2-0.​

One whole line at the end about the Leafs record against the top teams this year.

and your response to it:

We'll see. Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams but the flip side of that is that we have not done well against the bottom feeders. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're inconsistent and unpredictable. I'd also say that at this point those games don't matter much anyway.

Boston has been beating up on bad teams and Leaf fans aren't giving them any credit, after all they're just bad teams and they'll come down to earth etc. If however we beat up on the bad teams I'm sure Leaf fans will say look how awesome we are. And if we don't do well I'm sure those fans will be quick to say that those games don't matter as we have no motivation being locked into 3rd place and all. And so it goes, I can't wait for the playoffs to start!

now that sure seems to be a lot of words you just riffed of my one line, talking about what some mysterious anonymous "Leaf fans" would be saying. I wonder if any of those "leaf fans" you just put words into the mouths of would be named zeke?



Just admit that you get very upset when anyone mentions any reason why the leafs' current record may not perfectly represent their chances against other playoff and contender teams. and then you can admit that your sample size argument was BS if you'd like, too.

 

[Liminality]

Only chance Leafs have of getting by the Bruins is to Move Babcock upstairs with a few line change books. Let Lou and D J handle the bench.

It's a good thing you changed your original post, I really really hope you didn't mean to put that.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

As of right now ....

• 1. Tampa-vs- W. Jackets
• 2. Bruins -vs-3. Leafs

Leafs are playing Tamps if they started today. Standings are points %, total points only work with even number of GP.