Are the 2017/2018 Leafs legitimate contenders for the Cup?

[Razz]

The Leafs can make a strong argument that they are legit contenders. They have fantastic forward depth, a true #1 goalie in his prime and a pretty mobile defense. All the pieces are there, but they do lack experience. The core is just too young to be seen as a serious threat. They will have to make a serious run first which is exactly the plan. Based on the playoff outcome this year, they will add the final piece(s) and go for it next season.

If the Leafs get to the top 8 or maybe even the final 4 this year, I would expect them to be an absolute cup contender next year.

 

[Darth Menace]

I live in Edmonton, so I am only playing the Devil's advcoate here, but soon we will need to pay our core players 5x(ish) what they are making now. Soon the salary cap won't allow the Leafs to pay all these players what they are deserved.

The Leafs can make a strong argument that they are legit contenders. They have fantastic forward depth, a true #1 goalie in his prime and a pretty mobile defense. All the pieces are there, but they do lack experience. The core is just too young to be seen as a serious threat. They will have to make a serious run first which is exactly the plan. Based on the playoff outcome this year, they will add the final piece(s) and go for it next season.

If the Leafs get to the top 8 or maybe even the final 4 this year, I would expect them to be an absolute cup contender next year.

 

[jrgtml67]

Easy one....ill use last yr as a base. Took the Pres winners to 7 games and were in every game. Fast forward to now. Andersen has been a rock, the new lines has us looking better BUT we need to improve our TEAM defense. Notice the capitals...everyone is still screaming D..as a position.

My thought. Get a guy to play with Travis...Hainsey 2.0 would be nice. But before that a center to go with Kapenen and play off his speed. As well as give us depth since Goat isnt close and Miro needs to stay in the AHL for the full yr I think.

Many are blind to the fact..who wins the cup? The team with the hottest goalie and the team the hottest going in. Hard to stop a train on full tilt. Pitts is classic..last yr. Whatd they do? Finished on fire, a lot to do with Murray and they win it all. Everyone thought the Caps for sure..nope.

So if we were able to take a top team that far last yr..could we do it again but win ? Damn right..esp if Andy is hot and we make good moves the next cpl weeks. I could see us goin to the conference final. Its all on who we get or dont but more than that health and esp health of Freddy.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

last nights game, and more specifically Freddie Andersen shows why I said yes, with the offense Toronto has, although last night it was limited but it still is there, and the way Freddie cab play when he's on, as he showed last night, this is going to be a hard team to beat, Freddie when he is on is a top 10 goalie in this league and more often than not he is on.

I think this team is going to be a tough out if Freddie keeps this up.

 

[Confucius]

Are we contenders? -Sure are
Are we underdogs? -Sure are

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Are we contenders? -Sure are
Are we underdogs? -Sure are

Are we legitimate contenders ? Sure aren't.

 

[Gary Nylund]

last nights game, and more specifically Freddie Andersen shows why I said yes, with the offense Toronto has, although last night it was limited but it still is there, and the way Freddie cab play when he's on, as he showed last night, this is going to be a hard team to beat, Freddie when he is on is a top 10 goalie in this league and more often than not he is on.

I think this team is going to be a tough out if Freddie keeps this up.

Pretty much every playoff team is going to be a tough out. Maybe every playoff team is a contender too?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Pretty much every playoff team is going to be a tough out. Maybe every playoff team is a contender too?

I don't think that is the case, I don't think Philly or Carolina, or the NYI, whoever gets in winning because they either

A fon't have the offense

B don't have the goaltending

or C both

the NYI can score but they can't stop a puck

Philly can score but Brian Elliott has never been a top of the line goalie.

Carolina doesn't have the forwards or goalie

Columbus has issues but front but they do have goalie Bob so they likely go the furtherest of the 4 teams.

couple of those teams are getting in, but none are contenders

The Leafs however have a loaded offense and a borderline elite goalie they can go far

and I know you'll bring up the D so before you do that, I'd like to point out that the pens won the last 2 cups and weren't exactly loaded with Norris trophy winners, but they did have offense and goaltending.

What do the Leafs have? Offense and goaltending.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think that is the case, I don't think Philly or Carolina, or the NYI, whoever gets in winning because they either

A fon't have the offense

B don't have the goaltending

or C both

the NYI can score but they can't stop a puck

Philly can score but Brian Elliott has never been a top of the line goalie.

Carolina doesn't have the forwards or goalie

Columbus has issues but front but they do have goalie Bob so they likely go the furtherest of the 4 teams.

couple of those teams are getting in, but none are contenders

The Leafs however have a loaded offense and a borderline elite goalie they can go far

and I know you'll bring up the D so before you do that, I'd like to point out that the pens won the last 2 cups and weren't exactly loaded with Norris trophy winners, but they did have offense and goaltending.

What do the Leafs have? Offense and goaltending.

So not every team that makes the playoffs is a contender, maybe then just almost every team that makes the playoffs?

How one defines contender is a thing too - there are teams who IMO might not be quite as good as us but their chances of winning the cup are better than ours because of how hard our path is.

 

[zeke]

2/3 of the year down and 5 teams have set themselves apart at the top of the pack - BOS, TB, VGK, NSH, WPG.

Of those 5 elite teams, i still don't buy the Golden Knights even a little bit. They are not contenders. Then again, out of the non-contenders, I still believe the Penguins are a legit elite contender.

So 5 contenders at this point - BOS, TB, NSH, WPG, PIT.


Then there's a group just outside of these 5 that are almost-contenders - WSH, TOR, STL, SJS, DAL and maybe a couple others. These teams have 1/3 of the season left to step their game up or improve their roster.

For me, I think the Leafs' best is ahead of them - I don't think that at any point yet have they been firing on all cylinders. I'm guessing they close the gap with those contenders going forward, and a deadline addition or two would help.

BTW, our record against those 5 elite contenders this year is 5-2-0.

 

[Commander Clueless]

No, I don't think so. Although, if Andersen goes on a hot streak, never say never.

The Leafs have made impressive strides far more quickly than I think anyone anticipated, but I feel there's still a lot to iron out. A few big moves at the deadline may change that, but I think we're gearing up more for a patient stance. We'll see, though.

I love this Leafs team, but at the same time I can't see us standing toe to toe with the Bruins or Lightning right now. I don't know if it's pessimism, realism, or a mix of both.

 

[TheProspector]

Leafs are 5th in the league in ES GF%, 3rd in GF/60, and much improved 14th in GA/60; they lead the league in xGF/60, 4th in K rating (an amalgamation of advanced statistics), and 2nd in shot quality.

The Leafs have 3 lines that could stand in for a top line on most other teams. The Leafs have a solid backup, and a goaltender who can win games.

Boston? Toronto won all 4 games against them last season, and we're 2-1 against them this season. We were .500 against Tampa last season, and just 0-1 this season. Toronto shouldn't be scared of either of them. Toronto is 1-1 vs Vegas, 1-0 vs Winnipeg, 1-0 vs Nashville, and 1-1 vs Washington.

It's really strange to think that the Leafs aren't legitimate contenders, unless none of the aforementioned teams are either. The Leafs have an even or better record with almost every team ahead of them in the standings. Further, they have had the hardest part of the schedule so far, and now it gets easier, while most of the top opposing teams will get it more difficult.

f*** all you sandbaggers - this team is for real.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not impressed by these sample sizes. We're 1-0 vs Winnipeg, plan the parade. We're just 0-1 against TB, plan the parade.

 

[ToneDog]

Leafs are 5th in the league in ES GF%, 3rd in GF/60, and much improved 14th in GA/60; they lead the league in xGF/60, 4th in K rating (an amalgamation of advanced statistics), and 2nd in shot quality.

The Leafs have 3 lines that could stand in for a top line on most other teams. The Leafs have a solid backup, and a goaltender who can win games.

Boston? Toronto won all 4 games against them last season, and we're 2-1 against them this season. We were .500 against Tampa last season, and just 0-1 this season. Toronto shouldn't be scared of either of them. Toronto is 1-1 vs Vegas, 1-0 vs Winnipeg, 1-0 vs Nashville, and 1-1 vs Washington.

It's really strange to think that the Leafs aren't legitimate contenders, unless none of the aforementioned teams are either. The Leafs have an even or better record with almost every team ahead of them in the standings. Further, they have had the hardest part of the schedule so far, and now it gets easier, while most of the top opposing teams will get it more difficult.

**** all you sandbaggers - this team is for real.

Good to see somebody so optimistic. I am not as optimistic but I am not ready to throw in the towel because we will face TB or Boston in round #1 in two months. Lou and company have some work to do in order to prepare the troops but I am looking forward to the series (win or lose).

The good thing is that we are debating whether to be buyers or sellers at the TDL and not who we should be playing in goal to help the "tank for the yank" campaign

 

[Razz]

2/3 of the year down and 5 teams have set themselves apart at the top of the pack - BOS, TB, VGK, NSH, WPG.

Of those 5 elite teams, i still don't buy the Golden Knights even a little bit. They are not contenders. Then again, out of the non-contenders, I still believe the Penguins are a legit elite contender.

So 5 contenders at this point - BOS, TB, NSH, WPG, PIT.


Then there's a group just outside of these 5 that are almost-contenders - WSH, TOR, STL, SJS, DAL and maybe a couple others. These teams have 1/3 of the season left to step their game up or improve their roster.

For me, I think the Leafs' best is ahead of them - I don't think that at any point yet have they been firing on all cylinders. I'm guessing they close the gap with those contenders going forward, and a deadline addition or two would help.

BTW, our record against those 5 elite contenders this year is 5-2-0.

Great post, it's true, the Leafs are sitting on the cusp. The more I look at it, the more impressive this season is turning out to be. The Leafs have been excellent against the top tier teams this year and are now starting to be perceived as one of those top tier teams.

Also, I think the Leafs record is slightly misleading. We really haven't played much against Atlantic teams. Over 60% of our last 26 games are against Atlantic teams so finally we'll get our turn to beat up on the sellers and rookies. Boston on the other hand is up against a brutal stretch. 16 games in March alone. Eeesh.

The Leafs could finish with a much better record than we give them credit for and maybe even push higher in the division. They have dominated the West, held up well against the competitive Metro and are likely to beat up on Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit Montreal and Florida soon. After the deadline those teams will be garbage.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Good to see somebody so optimistic. I am not as optimistic but I am not ready to throw in the towel because we will face TB or Boston in round #1 in two months. Lou and company have some work to do in order to prepare the troops but I am looking forward to the series (win or lose).

Oh I think there are a ton of people that are optimistic. Probably more than there should be but then again, fans are supposed to hope for the best I guess.

I'm with you I think - not overly optimistic but still, optimistic. I have already put our chances against BOS or TB at about 40%, that's quite a big number. Hell 40% shots win about 40% of the time, that's not bad. The cool thing is that we have 2 months with zero pressure so we should be 100% ready to be all we can be when the playoffs start and at that point, you just gotta take it one game at a time.

The good thing is that we are debating whether to be buyers or sellers at the TDL and not who we should be playing in goal to help the "tank for the yank" campaign

LOL, so true.

Great post, it's true, the Leafs are sitting on the cusp. The more I look at it, the more impressive this season is turning out to be. The Leafs have been excellent against the top tier teams this year and are now starting to be perceived as one of those top tier teams.

Also, I think the Leafs record is slightly misleading. We really haven't played much against Atlantic teams. Over 60% of our last 26 games are against Atlantic teams so finally we'll get our turn to beat up on the sellers and rookies. Boston on the other hand is up against a brutal stretch. 16 games in March alone. Eeesh.

The Leafs could finish with a much better record than we give them credit for and maybe even push higher in the division. They have dominated the West, held up well against the competitive Metro and are likely to beat up on Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit Montreal and Florida soon. After the deadline those teams will be garbage.

We'll see. Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams but the flip side of that is that we have not done well against the bottom feeders. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're inconsistent and unpredictable. I'd also say that at this point those games don't matter much anyway.

Boston has been beating up on bad teams and Leaf fans aren't giving them any credit, after all they're just bad teams and they'll come down to earth etc. If however we beat up on the bad teams I'm sure Leaf fans will say look how awesome we are. And if we don't do well I'm sure those fans will be quick to say that those games don't matter as we have no motivation being locked into 3rd place and all. And so it goes, I can't wait for the playoffs to start!

 

[Mess]

My Cup finalists Series by strength of contenders

East vs West

#1 - Tampa vs Nashville
#2 - Boston vs Winnipeg
#3 - Pittsburgh -- Vegas
#4 - Washington -- St Louis
---------------------------------
#5 - Toronto vs Dallas
#6 - Columbus vs LA

 

[ToneDog]

Oh I think there are a ton of people that are optimistic. Probably more than there should be but then again, fans are supposed to hope for the best I guess.

I'm with you I think - not overly optimistic but still, optimistic. I have already put our chances against BOS or TB at about 40%, that's quite a big number. Hell 40% shots win about 40% of the time, that's not bad. The cool thing is that we have 2 months with zero pressure so we should be 100% ready to be all we can be when the playoffs start and at that point, you just gotta take it one game at a time.

We would definitely be the underdog if the series would start today. The Bruins and Lightning will be very active at the TDL whereas we will be cherry picking in which case the odds might decrease a little. Good thing is that upsets are always possible in round #1.

 

[Razz]

Oh Boston definitely deserves credit, they have been absolutely dominant for months now. However, it is true they had a pretty nice schedule to this point.

Boston vs West is 11-7-2 whereas the Leafs are 17-8-2. The Leafs are finally starting to even out with home games but even still the Leafs have 4 less home games than away while the opposite is true for Boston. 4 more home games than away for them.

So, Boston will have more games down the stretch, more travel and tougher competition. I like our chances to keep pace.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We would definitely be the underdog if the series would start today. The Bruins and Lightning will be very active at the TDL whereas we will be cherry picking in which case the odds might decrease a little. Good thing is that upsets are always possible in round #1.

Yup, upsets are always possible. The last Boston game was a bit depressing though, I hope for a better showing against TB, then we can start rooting for Boston to finish first. At least until TB lands another good Dman as rumours suggest they are trying to do, then we can start rooting for them to finish first again.

 

[Gary Nylund]

My Cup finalists Series by strength of contenders

East vs West

#1 - Tampa vs Nashville
#2 - Boston vs Winnipeg
#3 - Pittsburgh -- Vegas
#4 - Washington -- St Louis
---------------------------------
#5 - Toronto vs Dallas
#6 - Columbus vs LA

That looks to be about right.

 

[nsleaf]

There always seems to be an underdog team go deep into the play-offs each year, hopefully Leafs fill that role this year.
They haven't been this legit in a looooooooooooooooooooooooong time.

 

[zeke]

We'll see. Zeke likes to tell everyone how well we've done against the top teams but the flip side of that is that we have not done well against the bottom feeders. The only conclusion I can draw from that is that we're inconsistent and unpredictable. I'd also say that at this point those games don't matter much anyway.

Boston has been beating up on bad teams and Leaf fans aren't giving them any credit, after all they're just bad teams and they'll come down to earth etc. If however we beat up on the bad teams I'm sure Leaf fans will say look how awesome we are. And if we don't do well I'm sure those fans will be quick to say that those games don't matter as we have no motivation being locked into 3rd place and all. And so it goes, I can't wait for the playoffs to start!

You're putting words in my mouth, btw.

Like if I were to say "Gary Nylund likes to say that team win/loss records are a perfect reflection of each team's quality and we aren't allowed to look any deeper into it than that".

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're putting words in my mouth, btw.

Like if I were to say "Gary Nylund likes to say that team win/loss records are a perfect reflection of each team's quality and we aren't allowed to look any deeper into it than that".

LOL. You've made a number of posts drawing attention to what our record is against the better teams. Are you really saying this isn't true?

 

[zeke]

LOL. You've made a number of posts drawing attention to what our record is against the better teams. Are you really saying this isn't true?

You're drawing far bigger conclusions about it than I am.

But do I think that we should look at our performance against contenders when discussing whether we are a contender? yes, of course.