Anyone Else Get 2019-2020 Vibes From This Team?

[Niagara Bill]

Funny how it's suddenly irrelevant to discuss GM performance, after years of every single thread turning into a GM debate.

Maroon is a 4th liner who was dumped this past offseason. He can provide a 4th line impact, some entertainment, and pot the occasional goal, but contrary to your claim, he is clearly not "more valued in the playoffs than Mitchy." Marner is an elite player, his performance and success is not dictated by 4th liners, and every single hockey person in the world would take him over Maroon in the playoffs.

Not really a concern for us, since we can afford good defense and quality depth pieces, like we had for years prior to this one.

We're on pace to get more goals and points from our core 4 than last year, so blaming Tavares being snakebitten doesn't really fly. Samsonov struggled through the first half, but overall, we've still received above league average goaltending this season. We've experienced much worse goaltending over the years. Brodie has struggled this year in a top pairing role, but that's been amplified by our defensive support being stripped. He'd probably be fine in a reduced top-4 role if we hadn't left a giant hole in it and our PK.

Our main roster flaws right now are scoring depth, PKing, defense, and goaltending. Treliving's hands are all over that, with both what he did and what he chose not to do last offseason.

Maroon is now an overpaid, very elderly 4th liner, he should be gone in a cap league. My point uou make gir me. During the year yomid scorers like Mitchy can survive and set records, but without Maroon types in the playoffs, all that is wasted. AM , Mitchy needs space. Our gms never solve that problem.

 

[Gallagbi]

I think we call agree that the Leafs needed to build on the 2022 and 2023 teams to take the next level towards championship status and that the 2024 team has been a big step backwards.

On the ice, I don’t think it’s controversial to assign the biggest share of the blame to John Tavares decline, Ilya Samsonov’s crisis, TJ Brodie’s decline, John Klingberg’s complete breakdown, Tyler Bertuzzi being ineffective. Max Domi has underpeformed a bit, Ryan Reaves is useless, and probably a poor balance of special teams PK etc.

My diagnosis is this past summer has been a cheap renovation on a house showing some wear and tear. What we need to do now is strip it back a bit, be smart with the budget and make some bigger fixes.

I'm fine with a change in philosophy or moving major pieces, but we've also let some of those doors close with the NMCs and have doubled down on some big deals this year to Willy and Matty. So we're more limited in options now than a year ago.

I think the significant point is that first line. We're underperforming as a group. Big 4 scoring is about par with the past few years. So is scoring depth and offense from the Blueline. Defensive play is substantially weaker, and a lot of the depth offense has been from Knies and Robertson.

Feels inevitable to discuss the GM in all of this when we're discussing signings, trades and direction

 

[Stephen]

I'm fine with a change in philosophy or moving major pieces, but we've also let some of those doors close with the NMCs and have doubled down on some big deals this year to Willy and Matty. So we're more limited in options now than a year ago.

I think the significant point is that first line. We're underperforming as a group. Big 4 scoring is about par with the past few years. So is scoring depth and offense from the Blueline. Defensive play is substantially weaker, and a lot of the depth offense has been from Knies and Robertson.

Feels inevitable to discuss the GM in all of this when we're discussing signings, trades and direction

To me, it looks like Treliving joined the Leafs in a hurry, took a quick glance at the Shanaplan organizational playbook and just duct taped together some splashy signings, projecting a business as usual offseason to get the big contract renewals done. The job looks sloppy in hindsight, ineffective, one year and low risk.

To me it doesn’t really look that different than the business as usual approach. The churn and burn on Lehtonen, Barabanov as European free agents. Jimmy Vesey and Nick Ritchie flaming out. The risky bets on Mrazek and Campbell in goal. The risky bet on Murray’s health vs Klingberg’s health. The swing and a miss defensive additions in Ceci, Barrie, Klingberg.

Insofar as what Treliving was tasked with, I don’t think he did a good job at all. But I would also say a lot of the solid citizens Tavares, Brodie and Samsonov he was counting on have resulted in bigger holes than he was anticipating.

 

[Gallagbi]

To me, it looks like Treliving joined the Leafs in a hurry, took a quick glance at the Shanaplan organizational playbook and just duct taped together some splashy signings, projecting a business as usual offseason to get the big contract renewals done. The job looks sloppy in hindsight, ineffective, one year and low risk.

To me it doesn’t really look that different than the business as usual approach. The churn and burn on Lehtonen, Barabanov as European free agents. Jimmy Vesey and Nick Ritchie flaming out. The risky bets on Mrazek and Campbell in goal. The risky bet on Murray’s health vs Klingberg’s health. The swing and a miss defensive additions in Ceci, Barrie, Klingberg.

Insofar as what Treliving was tasked with, I don’t think he did a good job at all. But I would also say a lot of the solid citizens Tavares, Brodie and Samsonov he was counting on have resulted in bigger holes than he was anticipating.

Cost is the big difference. Take out Reaves and none of those UFAs are cheap. They're low risk from a committment POV, but it does look like they've weakened the roster and those 3 additions likely cost the same as your full list of Euros + Vets/goalies.

Part of roster construction is creating options for ebbs and flows. Tre did an alright job in net squeezing life out of Jones who looked like his career was over. None of Sammy or Will have a history running as "the guy" so it was always going to need support. Overall the goaltending seems to have a negligible impact on the defensive results with how they've performed. Brodie's declining, but we also knew the D needed help this summer and it wasn't addressed. Instead of supporting in heavy minutes, we went for offense. Even if Klingberg worked it was still a bizarre addition.

So you could end up pissing away a year of this cores prime. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't

 

[Stephen]

Cost is the big difference. Take out Reaves and none of those UFAs are cheap. They're low risk from a committment POV, but it does look like they've weakened the roster and those 3 additions likely cost the same as your full list of Euros + Vets/goalies.

Part of roster construction is creating options for ebbs and flows. Tre did an alright job in net squeezing life out of Jones who looked like his career was over. None of Sammy or Will have a history running as "the guy" so it was always going to need support. Overall the goaltending seems to have a negligible impact on the defensive results with how they've performed. Brodie's declining, but we also knew the D needed help this summer and it wasn't addressed. Instead of supporting in heavy minutes, we went for offense. Even if Klingberg worked it was still a bizarre addition.

So you could end up pissing away a year of this cores prime. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't

I wouldn’t be opposed to the team taking a step back so it can move forward correctly over the next couple of years, coupled with the JT contract running down… Take a look at Boston in 2015 and 2016. Couple of down years, regrouped and came back stronger than ever. The mix in the supporting cast is not right at the moment. I think our Matthews, Nylander and Marner cast is not done maturing. We’re at a bit of a dead end but I don’t think we’re out of time.

I think the mission is the exact same as when Lou was here. The special talent is in place but now put in a conventional, robust supporting cast, built strengths elsewhere on the roster so you can win a variety of ways.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Same defence as last year basically.

We lost defensemen, and replaced them with nothing. We lost PKers and replaced them with nothing. We lost defensive forwards and replaced them with some of the worst defensive forwards in the league and rookies. We didn't address the permanent loss of Muzzin, or insulate against potential declines from age or off-ice situations; all of which we were aware of in the offseason.

Although he had some cap space this off-season, that is pretty much gone for next year, while trying to fill a lot of holes.

He had a bunch of cap space this past offseason, and he'll have a bunch this upcoming offseason.

During the year yomid scorers like Mitchy can survive and set records, but without Maroon types in the playoffs, all that is wasted. AM , Mitchy needs space. Our gms never solve that problem.

We've had Maroon types over the years. That has never been the problem. Marner doesn't need 4th liners to excel in the regular season or playoffs.

I wouldn’t say it’s irrelevant but circular and tiresome.

Circular and tiresome? On HFboards? Never!
At least this is a fresh discussion on what the team is currently experiencing, and why, instead of just the same disproven narratives being repeated in every thread for years.

 

[GoonieFace]

We lost defensemen, and replaced them with nothing. We lost PKers and replaced them with nothing. We lost defensive forwards and replaced them with some of the worst defensive forwards in the league and rookies. We didn't address the permanent loss of Muzzin, or insulate against potential declines from age or off-ice situations; all of which we were aware of in the offseason.

He had a bunch of cap space this past offseason, and he'll have a bunch this upcoming offseason.

What d men did we lose? And don’t say Muzzin, he played 4 games last year and was declining before that. Also, don’t say Schenn.

We lost Kerfoot, good, he sucks.

They may have capspace, but they have lots of holes to fill in the lineup, plus the raises to Nylander and Matthews takes away most of the increase.

Reilly and McCabe are the only D men under contract, Timmon too, but he sucks. So it’s the new guys problem that Dubas left him a bunch of aging garbage, 2 major contracts to deal with, not much draft capital.

I don’t even know why I bother responding, you are out to lunch

 

[Stephen]

We lost defensemen, and replaced them with nothing. We lost PKers and replaced them with nothing. We lost defensive forwards and replaced them with some of the worst defensive forwards in the league and rookies. We didn't address the permanent loss of Muzzin, or insulate against potential declines from age or off-ice situations; all of which we were aware of in the offseason.

He had a bunch of cap space this past offseason, and he'll have a bunch this upcoming offseason.

We've had Maroon types over the years. That has never been the problem. Marner doesn't need 4th liners to excel in the regular season or playoffs.

Circular and tiresome? On HFboards? Never!
At least this is a fresh discussion on what the team is currently experiencing, and why, instead of just the same disproven narratives being repeated in every thread for years.

This teams construction has been flawed for half a decade and you act like Irving Grundman has just fumbled his dynastic inheritance from Sam Pollock.

 

[Gallagbi]

I wouldn’t be opposed to the team taking a step back so it can move forward correctly over the next couple of years, coupled with the JT contract running down… Take a look at Boston in 2015 and 2016. Couple of down years, regrouped and came back stronger than ever. The mix in the supporting cast is not right at the moment. I think our Matthews, Nylander and Marner cast is not done maturing. We’re at a bit of a dead end but I don’t think we’re out of time.

I think the mission is the exact same as when Lou was here. The special talent is in place but now put in a conventional, robust supporting cast, built strengths elsewhere on the roster so you can win a variety of ways.

Boston's an interesting one because they moved some big pieces to acquire picks. They dumped Hamilton to CGY, Lucic to LAK as a pending UFA - which I think netted 2 firsts for them. I wonder if that window was this past summer for us rather than midway through a disappointing year.

TB and WSH each had missed playoffs during their competitive era. That year basically seems like a wasted one for WSH. TB used it to flip Drouin for Sergachev (offseason following), flipped Boyle to us for a 2nd, Bishop for Cernak at the TDL.

I'd be tempted to sell this year given our current state.

 

[Stephen]

Boston's an interesting one because they moved some big pieces to acquire picks. They dumped Hamilton to CGY, Lucic to LAK as a pending UFA - which I think netted 2 firsts for them. I wonder if that window was this past summer for us rather than midway through a disappointing year.

TB and WSH each had missed playoffs during their competitive era. That year basically seems like a wasted one for WSH. TB used it to flip Drouin for Sergachev (offseason following), flipped Boyle to us for a 2nd, Bishop for Cernak at the TDL.

I'd be tempted to sell this year given our current state.

I would yard sale Treliving’s cheap add ons for whatever another contender wanted to give up for whatever futures currency and simultaneously re-buy medium term solutions that can be part of a serious run 2025, 2026 and beyond.

If you think about roster turnover like a turn based game we have the deadline, this offseason as a 2 step to making more substantive changes. Get the thing that might grow into a Sergachev or Cernak. Or raw picks to set up like Boston did.

 

[LeafEgo]

Last year's team pre-acquisitions: 110 point pace
What we have now: 98 point pace

Who cares, that's a difference of getting sammied three games so far, both teams are first round fodder.

If we traded a 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th right now for rental priced players we probably do better this post season than winning five games and getting badly outplayed in three of them.

We're lamenting three regular season losses. It's insignificant.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What d men did we lose?

Since the Muzzin injury early in the year, we've lost Holl, Sandin, Schenn, Gustaffson, Benn, Kerfoot, Engvall, O'Rielly, Acciari, Lafferty, ZAR, etc. as defensive contributors.

They may have capspace, but they have lots of holes to fill in the lineup

We had the cap space to address the holes last offseason, and we'll have the cap space to address them next offseason.
Treliving was handed a top tier team, and had everything he needed to keep it that way.

This teams construction has been flawed for half a decade and you act like Irving Grundman has just fumbled his dynastic inheritance from Sam Pollock.

The team's construction has not been flawed for half a decade. We were one of the best teams in the league the past few years. It's flawed this year though.

If we traded a 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th right now for rental priced players we probably do better this post season than winning five games and getting badly outplayed in three of them. We're lamenting three regular season losses. It's insignificant.

A 12 point drop off is quite significant. That's six wins turning to regulation losses, not three, and represents the difference between a top team and a wild card. We didn't spend that much on rentals last year, and we were already better last year before spending anything on rentals, despite losing Muzzin to a fluke career-ending injury in-season.

 

[Menzinger]

No, I don’t think MLSE and the top brass are consciously choosing big marketable names vs team success.

It’s clear their vision forward is big names first as foundation, profit, which paves the way to inevitable championship success… I think they’re just a little lost or stalled on their way.

That said, if hypothetically there was ever the possibility to trade rosters with another team, let’s say it’s a two way veteran roster like the 2019 St. Louis Blues lacking in star power, but with the guarantee of a Stanley Cup in Toronto… I’m 100% sure there are those who are so attached to the core that they wouldn’t do it.

Eh, we spent 2004-2014 with plenty of hard working teams with only one true star talent (Kessel), and only had 1 playoff appearance to show for it (and even that was in part the result of an unsustainable hit streak in a shortened season).

I don't think the front office should necessarily get heat for wanting to avoid ditching their top talents.

 

[Stephen]

Eh, we spent 2004-2014 with plenty of hard working teams with only one true star talent (Kessel), and only had 1 playoff appearance to show for it (and even that was in part the result of an unsustainable hit streak in a shortened season).

I don't think the front office should necessarily get heat for wanting to avoid ditching their top talents.

Well, in a hypothetical trade where you can guarantee a Stanley Cup win or have name brand star power, there’s still hemming and hawing over 2004-2014 so it demonstrates my point that we may be too in love with the core.

Not to say we can’t eventually win with them or some of them but the attachment is deep.

 

[Menzinger]

Well, in a hypothetical trade where you can guarantee a Stanley Cup win or have name brand star power, there’s still hemming and hawing over 2004-2014 so it demonstrates my point that we may be too in love with the core.

Fair, but that's also an impossible scenario.

Moving on from a core that you know at minimum gets you to the playoffs for a giant question mark I don't think is quite as attractive as an option as we make it seem.

 

[Stephen]

Fair, but that's also an impossible scenario.

Moving on from a core that you know at minimum gets you to the playoffs for a giant question mark I don't think is quite as attractive as an option as we make it seem.

Well my original point is we’ve fallen too deeply in love with skill alone and this core specifically and sometimes star power seems to be the whole point.

Given the hypothetical choice of winning a guaranteed Stanley Cup with lesser lights or having the star power and only have chance of winning, you’d think the answer would be a cup, unequivocally. But we’re getting into the weeds of whether a hypothetical scenario is realistic and historical eras where we had no stars.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well, in a hypothetical trade where you can guarantee a Stanley Cup win or have name brand star power, there’s still hemming and hawing over 2004-2014 so it demonstrates my point that we may be too in love with the core.

Nobody chooses "name brand star power" over a guaranteed cup. That's a strawman.
In real life, guaranteed cups don't exist, so teams are going to take the pathway that gives them the best chance at one. Which is keeping our core.

 

[Racer88]

Nobody can say they are or were a top tier team when they flame out in the playoffs every dam year. That’s just silly

 

[LeafEgo]

A 12 point drop off is quite significant. That's six wins turning to regulation losses, not three, and represents the difference between a top team and a wild card. We didn't spend that much on rentals last year, and we were already better last year before spending anything on rentals, despite losing Muzzin to a fluke career-ending injury in-season.

That's 'pacing' for 12 points by seasons end. We're comparing the team today. At 51 games, it's a difference of three wins, not six.

We are comfortably not a wild card team right now.

Last year's team pre acquisitions was not better than today's team, it was a horror show for the playoffs, which is why we replaced a third of it and still flopped.

We lost Kling same as we lost Muzzy, and haven't even used the cap to replace him.

There's no material difference to get excited about.

 

[Matty Sundin]

That was probably Dubas worst off season as GM for us. The Kadri trade didn’t work out. Barrie never fit in here. Kerfoot was Kadri replacement and just wasn't close to replacing what Kadri brought. He also only made 1 million less then Kadri..Connor Brown was still a useful player and he got traded as a premium to take Zaitsev for Ceci. Dubas also signed Marner to that contract before training camp. Really his best move that off season signing an aging Jason Spezza.

The season itself was just negative vibes. The team had enough of Babcock and tuned him out(Probably deserved it). Our D just wasn’t good with the new additions and Rielly wasn’t healthy. Freddie was starting burn out and we didn’t have a capable back up. Marner dispy doodle style of play despite putting up pts was started to get noticed and annoying and this is when fans and media started turning on him. The honeymoon thought we had with having young stars and John Tavares signing was over that year. Then you have that David Aryes game…

There was good chance we don’t make playoffs despite being 3rd in division if Covid didn’t happen. We were tied with the wild card spots and Florida wasn’t far behind and team was probably embarrassed and mentally fragile still from that Zamboni goalie game. We actually really didn’t make playoffs since we couldn’t even beat the Jackets in the play in series.

This season isn’t over yet but I definitely get the similarities due to the off season moves not panning out. That 2019-20 was worse imo. The vibes just felt awful. Part of me actually wanted that team to not make playoffs before Covid cause they didn’t deserve it. It’s too bad they got bailed out by the Covid/bubble excuse. I don’t even have a vibe for this season. It’s just been a whatever for me and I honestly no expectations for them for once that I can’t even act delusional. If anything that might be a good thing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's 'pacing' for 12 points by seasons end. We're comparing the team today. At 51 games, it's a difference of three wins, not six.
We are comfortably not a wild card team right now.
Last year's team pre acquisitions was not better than today's team, it was a horror show for the playoffs, which is why we replaced a third of it and still flopped.
We lost Kling same as we lost Muzzy, and haven't even used the cap to replace him.

Actually, a 12 point difference at 51 games would be closer to 8 points or 4 wins. We're talking about teams when the season wasn't fully finished yet, but an 82-game pace is useful for visualizing the difference. It's weird that you're attempting to simultaneously argue that 12 points is nothing, but the 4 points pace difference between us and a wild card spot is "comfortable".

As for Klingberg, that's a bottom pairing defenseman with a net negative impact. That's not remotely the same as losing a significant piece like Muzzin. We're also running pretty close to the cap without him, for the record.

You may wish that this season is no different than last season pre-deadline, but unfortunately, by every objective measure, we are worse.

 

[Evilhomer]

I haven't read this thread, but this year's team is way better than that team. It's not even close.

 

[Gallagbi]

Actually, a 12 point difference at 51 games would be closer to 8 points or 4 wins. We're talking about teams when the season wasn't fully finished yet, but an 82-game pace is useful for visualizing the difference. It's weird that you're attempting to simultaneously argue that 12 points is nothing, but the 4 points pace difference between us and a wild card spot is "comfortable".

As for Klingberg, that's a bottom pairing defenseman with a net negative impact. That's not remotely the same as losing a significant piece like Muzzin. We're also running pretty close to the cap without him, for the record.

You may wish that this season is no different than last season pre-deadline, but unfortunately, by every objective measure, we are worse.

I'd also say there's a pretty big drop in our overall play - which I'm sure is reflected in things like regulation wins and xGF%.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'd also say there's a pretty big drop in our overall play - which I'm sure is reflected in things like regulation wins and xGF%.

Is that the same all-encompassing xGF% stat that shows Tyler Bertuzzi is the best player on the Leafs at even-strength?

Because if so I like how it gets selectively used by certain posters to paint the picture they want to see.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'd also say there's a pretty big drop in our overall play - which I'm sure is reflected in things like regulation wins and xGF%.

Yep. On top of the drop in point percentage, we were pacing for 42 regulation wins last year. This year we're pacing for 29. Our xGF% dropped (54.86% -> 52.36%), our 5v5 xGF% dropped (54.52% -> 50.54%), our GF% dropped (56.02% -> 52.07%), our 5v5 GF% dropped (56.81% -> 51.16%), etc.

Is that the same all-encompassing xGF% stat that shows Tyler Bertuzzi is the best player on the Leafs at even-strength?

No, it doesn't show that.
Team xGF% is not the same thing as individual player on-ice xGF%, and they require very different levels of context and additional information in order to draw conclusions.