Any McDavid/Crosby level prospects out there? For 2018 or beyond?

[Frannel]

Okay, so this is an honest question and I am not trying to provoke anyone but truly look for some insight here: Since you are all comparing statistics so much and who had how many points in how many games at what age and pre-draft-season... Isn't there necessarily distortion from one season to another because teams are changing, co-players and opponents are changing or developing their skills? So while - just as an example - one player has 99 points in 58 games one year which might or might not have been a year with overall worse players or stats another can have 80 points in 60 games and still be on the same level because the league is in that particular year stronger and has more depth?
Really, I'm not implying anything just honestly asking!

 

[Killerjas]

Aito Iguchi in 2021

Might not even get drafted in the WHL entry draft

 

[alko]

Europe is not so much followed. Here are my 2 picks:

Danil Gushchin - CSKA Moscow U17 (2020 draft)
Next Ovechkin.


LD Aron Kiviharju - TPS, FIN JRS (2024 Draft)
Originally Posted by FinProspects
Laine, Granlund, Puljujärvi stood out at very, very young age. Everyone in Oulu-area knew Granlund at age of 11. Puljujärvi was 11 when they wrote the legendary article of him scoring 8 goals in the SM-Bandy final, which ended 8-7. At age of 13 Pulju moved to Oulu and started in C-juniors, and everyone here already knew him. Ville Nieminen said that Laine was noticed when he was under 10y old, because he was scoring goals all the time.
if you are special, age doesn’t really matter.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I rate Dahlin highly and feel he's as close as you can get with young defencemen.

Hughes/Lafreniere are a tier below (still damn good!).

Not sure about guys younger than them as that is a long way out to make projections. Too many things can go wrong (or right) with players aged 14-15.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Matthew Savoie is a 2004 born player in western Canada who has been compared to Crosby and MacKinnon by his coach.

This would make him 2022 eligible, so again a bit down the road, but Global news did a feature on him last season and he was an elite player in a league full of 02 born players, and I have heard this year that if he were eligible for the bantam draft with the 03s he would be head and shoulders the best player available.

 

[Tutu to]

In McDavid's 16 y/o season he had 99 points in 58 games.
Better than 80 points in 60 games that lafreniere had.

Mcdavid had 66 points in his 15-16 year old seaspn while Lafreniere had 80 in less games

 

[alko]

Matthew Savoie is a 2004 born player in western Canada who has been compared to Crosby and MacKinnon by his coach.

This would make him 2022 eligible, so again a bit down the road, but Global news did a feature on him last season and he was an elite player in a league full of 02 born players, and I have heard this year that if he were eligible for the bantam draft with the 03s he would be head and shoulders the best player available.

Will he receive "Exceptional status"?

 

[snowkiddin]

Still way too early to give him a label him as a likely Crosby or McDavid. I'll wait until I see something in the CHL, which is generally the first real challenge for highly hyped kids. The child prodigy thread basically shows you shouldn't expect much until a kid hits junior. Some become intriguing like Wahlstrom or great like Crosby. But, you also get a bunch of average players like McFarland, Mattias-Emilio Petersen, and Jayce Hawryluk. Even exceptional kids like Day and Veleno have been disappointing relative to expectations.

Yeah, exactly. Most (if not all) of those kids Savoie is playing against won't even make the CHL, never mind the NHL. Way too early indeed. Would be cool if he ends up like Crosby, but way too early.

And Veleno and Day - what happened with them? Veleno might be a decent scorer in a few years, but I doubt Day ever makes the NHL as a regular. They never tore it up as soon as entering their respective leagues like McDavid and Tavares did. Day wasn't even drafted first overall in the OHL draft.

It seems like Hockey Canada has started to hand out their "Exceptional Player" status all willy-nilly now, and it's devaluing the honour.

If Savoie earns Exceptional Player Status, it will be interesting to see how well he plays in junior compared to the others who have been granted it.

WHL does draft a year earlier than the OHL and QMJHL I believe, so if Savoie is granted the status, maybe he is just allowed to join the WHL a year earlier but still get drafted when he normally would?

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah, exactly. Most (if not all) of those kids Savoie is playing against won't even make the CHL, never mind the NHL. Way too early indeed. Would be cool if he ends up like Crosby, but way too early.

And Veleno and Day - what happened with them? Veleno might be a decent scorer in a few years, but I doubt Day ever makes the NHL as a regular. They never tore it up as soon as entering their respective leagues like McDavid and Tavares did. Day wasn't even drafted first overall in the OHL draft.

It seems like Hockey Canada has started to hand out their "Exceptional Player" status all willy-nilly now, and it's devaluing the honour.

If Savoie earns Exceptional Player Status, it will be interesting to see how well he plays in junior compared to the others who have been granted it.

WHL does draft a year earlier than the OHL and QMJHL I believe, so if Savoie is granted the status, maybe he is just allowed to join the WHL a year earlier but still get drafted when he normally would?

I don't think the WHL has figured it out. Rumour was that they'd let him in a year early to the draft. I also think the WHL would be very tough on letting a kid in. It's a bit more of a grueling league with more travel, and a kid would be much further from home in certain situations. When Tavares got it, he was basically a 60 to 90-minute drive from his parents (unless you went through Toronto rush hour hell), and Ekblad was like 4 hours away by car. McDavid was about 6 to 8 with a border crossing. Savoie being from Alberta could end up extremely far away in a bunch of cases.

I think Hockey Canada is going to be much tougher on exceptional status after the Day situation. They didn't grant it to Jack Hughes who was a smaller kid but insanely skilled. I think it may go back to the original standard which was they are going to wait for a kid to force the issue like Tavares. Although the 15-year-olds were allowed to play prior to Tavares for their local OHL team for a year (see Spezza and Rico Fata), then that was taken away, and they re-implemented a rule putting the kid into the draft when Tavares emerged.

 

[snowkiddin]

I don't think the WHL has figured it out. Rumour was that they'd let him in a year early to the draft. I also think the WHL would be very tough on letting a kid in. It's a bit more of a grueling league with more travel, and a kid would be much further from home in certain situations. When Tavares got it, he was basically a 60 to 90-minute drive from his parents (unless you went through Toronto rush hour hell), and Ekblad was like 4 hours away by car. McDavid was about 6 to 8 with a border crossing. Savoie being from Alberta could end up extremely far away in a bunch of cases.

I think Hockey Canada is going to be much tougher on exceptional status after the Day situation. They didn't grant it to Jack Hughes who was a smaller kid but insanely skilled. I think it may go back to the original standard which was they are going to wait for a kid to force the issue like Tavares. Although the 15-year-olds were allowed to play prior to Tavares for their local OHL team for a year (see Spezza and Rico Fata), then that was taken away, and they re-implemented a rule putting the kid into the draft when Tavares emerged.

Slightly off topic, but what exactly happened with Day? Why was he granted that status. I agree with the rest, of Savoie is granted exceptional status, then I think the hype for him will greatly increase (obviously).

 

[93LEAFS]

Slightly off topic, but what exactly happened with Day? Why was he granted that status. I agree with the rest, of Savoie is granted exceptional status, then I think the hype for him will greatly increase (obviously).

He was a man-child in AAA. Probably wasn't mature enough to handle having the status, as most of the other kids were professional with their approach from a young age (read about McDavid and Tavares as younger kids). Other issues are, he wasn't in a league monitored by Hockey Canada (played in Michigan), and when you are that much further ahead than your peers at 15 (he was like 6'2 200 with elite skating) you can dominate to an extent its hard to read hockey-sense that gets exposed at the next level.

There is also everyone's favorite conspiracy that it was done to get him to play for Canada internationally. I downplay that one because he didn't get USA citizenship until 2 years after being drafted (and basically banished by Hockey Canada for showing up 30 pounds overweight to Hlinka try-outs). I mean, at the time it was Canada or Belgium.

 

[snowkiddin]

He was a man-child in AAA. Probably wasn't mature enough to handle having the status, as most of the other kids were professional with their approach from a young age (read about McDavid and Tavares as younger kids). Other issues are, he wasn't in a league monitored by Hockey Canada (played in Michigan), and when you are that much further ahead than your peers at 15 (he was like 6'2 200 with elite skating) you can dominate to an extent its hard to read hockey-sense that gets exposed at the next level.

There is also everyone's favorite conspiracy that it was done to get him to play for Canada internationally. I downplay that one because he didn't get USA citizenship until 2 years after being drafted (and basically banished by Hockey Canada for showing up 30 pounds overweight to Hlinka try-outs). I mean, at the time it was Canada or Belgium.

Ah okay. Seems like they messed up on that and gave it to him when he didn’t deserve it. But even OHL scouts didn’t see someone exceptional, as he wasn’t even the first pick.

To me, generational should be left for Tavares and McDavid. Prospects of that ilk. I know Veleno went first overall in the Q draft, but he’s not a top prospect now and didn’t dominate the way McDavid and Tavares did. Ekblad was good and still went first overall, but unless he was significantly better in midget, I don’t think his performance warranted exceptional status. As far as I’m concerned, the tiers for exceptional status would be:

Tavares/McDavid
Ekblad
Veleno
Day

IMO, only that top tier should’ve ever been granted.

Seems like you said that Day has an attitude problem and lack of work ethic. Maybe the hockey sense was never elite, but he should’ve been good enough to be a first round pick and play on the junior team for Canada. Instead, it looks he might not ever play in the NHL, and his exceptional status was wasted.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Mcdavid had 66 points in his 15-16 year old seaspn while Lafreniere had 80 in less games

McDavid played more than half this season as a 15 year old. Lafreniere played six games. It's not the same.

 

[ijuka]

Lafreniere could be compared to MacKinnon, not McDavid. McDavid played in OHL. Also, note McDavid at u-18s that season.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

It seems like those prospects are a once every 7-15 years kinda thing. Lemieux, Lindros, Crosby, McDavid were all in that range.

 

[Sam Spade]

I would much rather know if there are any potential 600 goal scorers coming soon.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Jack Hughes compares very favorably to Eichel as a 16 year old, which suggests 18/19 draft might offer an elite 1C prospect. He has had as good a year as a 16yo Matthews

Do you say this from their full games or only points?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Dahlin is generational. I don't think Hughes or Lafreniere are generational.

 

[93LEAFS]

Dahlin is generational. I don't think Hughes or Lafreniere are generational.

I wouldn't call him generational. I don't think anyone takes him over McDavid if they are in the same draft, who is the only generational prospect since Crosby. It'd be debatable if he'd go ahead of Matthews or Eichel.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I wouldn't call him generational. I don't think anyone takes him over McDavid if they are in the same draft, who is the only generational prospect since Crosby. It'd be debatable if he'd go ahead of Matthews or Eichel.

McDavid and Dahlin can both be generational.

It is debatable whether he'd go over Matthews or Eichel, but I think he would. They are centers so they get the positional advantage, but he's also a higher tier prospect than them at the time of the draft.

 

[93LEAFS]

McDavid and Dahlin can both be generational.

It is debatable whether he'd go over Matthews or Eichel, but I think he would. They are centers so they get the positional advantage, but he's also a higher tier prospect than them at the time of the draft.

I don't think he is, he isn't on a higher tier, especially when you factor in how much higher risk D are, and I don't think there's a chance he goes above McDavid. I mean, generational is supposed to be a player you project to be the best player in the league for his generation. I don't really see how two can come 3 years apart. I wouldn't bet on Dahlin winning a Hart in his career, let alone in his first 3. McDavid that would be a decent bet with.

 

[HenrikW]

Do you say this from their full games or only points?

Well, his numbers compare favorably. He's not the same kind of player, both Eichel and Matthews are physical strong and has a large frame. Hughes is not 6 feet yet and while he is still young enough to grow, he won't necessarily get much taller. That generally affects the draft too. The most recent player I would compare him to is Matthew Barzal. He is a very smooth skater with nice edges, impressive speed for a 16yo and doesn't necessarily go straight down the ice. He has incredible puck-handling and vision. He'll be a world-class playmaker, although I think his shot is underrated

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Dahlin is generational. I don't think Hughes or Lafreniere are generational.

He isn't. He would have to be better than McDavid in the NHL and he won't be. Generational means the best player of that generation.

 

[alko]

read about McDavid and Tavares as younger kids

Where are some links? Would be interesting to read.

 

[93LEAFS]

Where are some links? Would be interesting to read.

Off the top of my head, the best example of McDavid's worth ethic at a young age is in Bob McKenzie's Hockey Confidential book. He was working with world class trainers from a young age and was extremely dedicated.

Kadri's quote about Tavares which was controversial but having been around London at the time both were on the team and knowing a bench warming duster or two, I feel its misinterpreted. Here's the quote

"I think talent-wise, there’s not too much difference, to be honest,” Kadri said.

“Johnny’s a guy that works hard and that’s something he’s learned from day 1, so I’m getting my work ethic going and doing everything I can to be one of those players."

Kadri liked to go out and party (as did many of the other Knights players, he was not alone, but probably the most high-profile one). Tavares from a young age was the player who stayed at home and played NHL or COD and then was the first one in the gym and the last one off the ice. This is how he carried himself at 15 when he entered the league, and how he carried himself when he left the OHL. Kadri was more speaking highly about how hard JT works compared to everyone else, and this was on a team with multiple NHLers (Kadri, John Carlson, Zach Rinaldo and Del Zoto). You'd see the other guys around town and at bars, never JT. Basically stayed at his billets, played games, ate right, woke up early and put in the work. Not that these other guys were slackers, but his work ethic was probably unmatched, especially when compared to other elite players such as Hall and Seguin who were in the league at the same time.