I don't think a 60 point player is worth 7 mil but...that's just me
I think all agree with that. The problem is there were a lot of factors that went into it.
Ryan had four >30 goal seasons under his belt, a 71 pts season, and a season where he paced at 73 pts. His last season in Anaheim was apparently derailed by a virus that caused him issues all year.
His first year in Ottawa started off great, with 25 pts and 13 goals in his first 26 games (79 pts and 41 goal pace), however he suffered a hernia at some point in November, and cooled off drastically before getting shut down for the season. The team clearly felt that with the increased role he was getting in Ottawa, along with better health, he'd be an impact player.
Expectations at the time were that the salary cap was going to explode, some projected it to reach ~100 mil by next year. At the time, 7.5 mil was not expected to go as far as it does today.
And, Ottawa had just lost it's captain, it couldn't afford to let Ryan walk to UFA.
Hindsight being what it is, the contract was and is terrible. Foresight told us it was risky, but I doubt anyone thought he's struggle this much (though the guy has been ravaged by injuries, be it hernia or multiple broken fingers).
As for whether Ottawa could miss the playoffs, it comes down to health. If they can stay healthy (ie not lose more guys) they have a good chance of holding on. They only need 5 more points in 4 games to seal a spot up regardless of what everyone else does.