Value of: Anthony Mantha + for 1st line defenseman

[Nizdizzle]

Ahhh the ol players peak at 23 argument. Love hfboards


Anyway OP has a consistent lack of understanding, don't put too much thought into it.

The alternative is making decisions based on emotion and "well I like this player, and I like this team so obviously they will get better and better until they don't". I feel like the one backed by hundreds of points of data is probably more reliable.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Or Chris Tierney

Or Pierre Dorion?

 

[izlez]

The alternative is making decisions based on emotion and "well I like this player, and I like this team so obviously they will get better and better until they don't". I feel like the one backed by hundreds of points of data is probably more reliable.

What exactly is WAR? From what I can tell, that guy keeps it a secret. Even if he does provide his formula somewhere, taking your gut feelings and putting it into a formula is not really any more scientific than just using your eyes. Anyone can take his formula and tweak it however they want and give it a new fancy name. Doesn't mean it's right because you wrote it down in some fancy math with a fancy name.

And before we get sidetracked too far, I am in no way arguing that Mantha + is anywhere near enough to getting a top pairing defenesman. If the + is a top-5 pick next year, we can have some discussions on the player coming back... but in that scenario, neither team would do it

 

[Nizdizzle]

What exactly is WAR? From what I can tell, that guy keeps it a secret. Even if he does provide his formula somewhere, taking your gut feelings and putting it into a formula is not really any more scientific than just using your eyes. Anyone can take his formula and tweak it however they want and give it a new fancy name. Doesn't mean it's right because you wrote it down in some fancy math with a fancy name.

And before we get sidetracked too far, I am in no way arguing that Mantha + is anywhere near enough to getting a top pairing defenesman. If the + is a top-5 pick next year, we can have some discussions on the player coming back... but in that scenario, neither team would do it

If some metric of points production (P/60, PPG...etc) was graphed and displayed the same curve, would you consider it right then?

 

[Steeler23]

people confuse 1st line winger with elite winger too often

mantha top 25 scoring and top 20 goals for his position in his 2nd season

I think when people refers 1st line players, it's a term used for a clear cut 1st line, so basically an elite player.

If you are the #25/30 at your position in the league, it means that you would play on the second line on almost every teams. In that case, you call them Top 6 players, they are players that can either play on the 1st or 2nd.

 

[lilidk]

Mantha kind of remind me of Todd Bertuzzi , about same size and skills . His best years were between when he was 26 and 34 . I expect big rise on stats department this year for Mantha stepping into his prime

 

[AndreRoy]

The Lightning have a similarly aged defenseman who played on their top pairing available.

(Obviously that would be a horrible trade for Detroit and I am in no way suggesting that they would or should ever consider it. Just saying that the best Mantha would return at this point is a “top pairing” defenseman, as opposed to a real top pairing defenseman without the quotes.)

 

[izlez]

If some metric of points production (P/60, PPG...etc) was graphed and displayed the same curve, would you consider it right then?

Simple answer: no.

I do like simpler stats in hockey because people are much more likely to take them at face value with skepticism understanding that they are wildly incomplete.
I hate stats like WAR, because it's not data. It's a calculation created by a human. It's a glorified eye test, and I'd just prefer an actual eye test.

And like I said at first, I'd much rather see samples of individuals careers, rather than an aggregate 22 year old vs an aggregate 29 year old.

 

[Ezekial]

The alternative is making decisions based on emotion and "well I like this player, and I like this team so obviously they will get better and better until they don't". I feel like the one backed by hundreds of points of data is probably more reliable.

Quality of competition, maturity of their game to be more team oriented, lack of knowledge of the player.

There's many factors.
Player development doesn't just stop at 22, Ovi was a different type of player in the 2018 playoffs than he was at 23 and his team was better off for it.

 

[drw02]

There is little reason for the Red Wings to make a trade such as this. One good D doesn't change their non contending status. They have several promising young D coming up soon. They'll likely have a good chance at adding a high end, top 10 D prospect in next years draft. Just be patient.

 

[Hammettf2b]

If Taylor Hall fetches Adam Larsson, I fear what the horrible return would be for Mantha.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I like Mantha, I'd love him on my team, but calling him a first liner right now is being VERY generous. He might get there if he continues to improve, but I doubt most of the league would look at him as a first liner right now, so there's no way you're getting a #1/2 D for him. If Detroit sees him as being that first-liner, he's probably worth a lot more to DET now than the rest of the league, just keep and develop him.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Faulk gets Nyquist, not Mantha.

Sure, I guess but Mantha doesn't get you a top pairing D unless the + is significant. If you want younger D with potential the Canes have Bean, Fleury, Fox but the only forward on Detroit that I see bringing back a top D on their own is Larkin.

 

[go4hockey]

he is not 2nd line ,last year Mantha 3rd point and 1st goal producer in the team . He is stepping in his prime this year and will improve

I feel he is a good young player and could grow into the top line role. But coming on and saying he is at or near the top of scoring for a awful team does very little to convince that he is a top liner. He would not be the main piece coming back if I was the team moving a top pair defenseman.

 

[drw02]

I feel he is a good young player and could grow into the top line role. But coming on and saying he is at or near the top of scoring for a awful team does very little to convince that he is a top liner. He would not be the main piece coming back if I was the team moving a top pair defenseman.

I'd argue it's harder to produce playing on bad teams, at the very least, there's nothing less impressive about being the leading scorer on a bad team than a good team. Detroit is a poor possession team right now, their defense is incapable of consistently breaking out of the zone, moving the puck up ice or helping create any offensive chances (save for Green) thus limiting Mantha's chances to produce offensively.

 

[moegillknee]

Mantha would be a great pickup for lots of teams but not bringing back a current #1 dman.
Maybe a younger dman with potential like Valimaki of the flames.
Calgarys D is pretty good right now and they could use a guy like Mantha.
Something like Mantha plus nyi 2nd for Valimaki. Kylington and Frolik (cap dump) could be beneficial for both teams.
I thought Wings should have drafted Noah Dobson over a winger .but i believe alot of teams are going to be sorry they didnt grab him.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Do Detroit fans have someone in particular they want to target? It'd be a lot easier to distinguish the + if the other side had a name.

 

[Glen Metropolit]

Mantha Vs Petry

 

[WesMcCauley]

he is not 2nd line ,last year Mantha 3rd point and 1st goal producer in the team . He is stepping in his prime this year and will improve .

Mantha can easily turn into a solid top line winger scoring atleast 30+30 but i dont see teams trading a top pair young defensemen for that unless they are extremely stacked on defense and have a lot of defensive depth in the pipeline. Since very few if any fit that description, you are gonna have a hard time finding a trading partner...

 

[Frenzy31]

Valuewise, is Mantha + 1st close to Parayko? Having a debate with a friend. Let me know what you think

Note: this is strictly valuewise, not asking if either team does it

Value is based on team need. For instance if CP were on team like Carolina with d coming out their backside, but a lack of quality forward, then this deal may make sense. For the Blues, this isn’t even considered due to depth at both positions.

Someone also stated that it is harder to produce on a lousy team, I disagree. If you are on a lousy team, you are likely getting into a position and better playing time/line mates then you would on a good team.

Ice time, line mates and PP opportunity will decrease if you move to a contender. If you go from the first line and average 18 minutes a night, 1st pp unit and being one of the main options. To 15 minutes a night, 2nd unit.... etc.. your production will drop.

Boyes scored 40 with the Blues. I also think it is a major reason that guys added at the trade deadline tend to flop more then succeeed. Go from being the man to someone kind of in the middle.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

I would love Mantha, I wanted the Flyers to take him that year. I’m not trading Gostisbehere or Provorov for him though.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

I would love Mantha in La i think he would be the perfect long term winger for Kopitar. Red wing fans would something around Martinez work?

 

[ThankGord]

I would love Mantha in La i think he would be the perfect long term winger for Kopitar. Red wing fans would something around Martinez work?

Nah we'd be looking for somebody younger.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I would love Mantha in La i think he would be the perfect long term winger for Kopitar. Red wing fans would something around Martinez work?

Yeah right, A 31 year old Martinez for a 24 year old Mantha. Need to thing much younger. Besides Mantha alone is worth far more then just Martinez. Your add would need to be significantly better then just Martinez alone.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I would love Mantha, I wanted the Flyers to take him that year. I’m not trading Gostisbehere or Provorov for him though.

Then no Mantha for you then.