Confirmed with Link: Anthony Cirelli signs 8 year extension | $6.25M AAV

[LeafLoyalist]

Has there ever been a $6M offensive player that’s never had a 20 goal season ?

2 shortened seasons, 1 yr with 19, and very little to no PP time. Numbers can be skewed based on how they are utilized.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Can’t even score goals lmao!

 

[RussianGuyovich]

more like no scorelli

 

[Sky04]

Has he ever meshed well with anybody? We play him with Killorn but it's not like those 2 have the best chemistry, they just kinda do their own thing and both are streaky as hell.

Cooper loves to play Cirelli with Point but I see nothing there either, same when he had Stamkos on his wing. He has a very limited offensive skillset which will hurt him if he has to carry a line. Would help if he gets better at faceoffs too, your top defensive center being ~45% in the dot hurts.

 

[Stammertime91]

Has he ever meshed well with anybody? We play him with Killorn but it's not like those 2 have the best chemistry, they just kinda do their own thing and both are streaky as hell.

Cooper loves to play Cirelli with Point but I see nothing there either, same when he had Stamkos on his wing. He has a very limited offensive skillset which will hurt him if he has to carry a line. Would help if he gets better at faceoffs too, your top defensive center being ~45% in the dot hurts.

No. He has never shown above average chemistry with anyone. Him and kill0rn are put together cause they're responsible defensively and killorn is a regular season top 6 winger. Cirelli is a 2.5C. Too good for the 3rd line but not good enough offensively to impact a game as the 2C. I hate when he's on wing but that might be best to replace Palat with him. I hate that trio (with kuch and point)

 

[DFC]

Has he ever meshed well with anybody? We play him with Killorn but it's not like those 2 have the best chemistry, they just kinda do their own thing and both are streaky as hell.

Cooper loves to play Cirelli with Point but I see nothing there either, same when he had Stamkos on his wing. He has a very limited offensive skillset which will hurt him if he has to carry a line. Would help if he gets better at faceoffs too, your top defensive center being ~45% in the dot hurts.

Point-Cirelli seems to come along when Cooper is desperate to shut somebody down. But really, I can't think of Cirelli meshing with anybody. Maybe his game is too north-south to really develop any chemistry.

 

[Outl4w]

I don't like the term and average. He should have gotten less for 8 years or this salary more for 3 years. This will be a great contract if he takes a step forward of a terrible one if he doe snot. Trochek got less is fair comparison with more offensive upside .

 

[OffBy1]

Actual Selke trophy winner, Patrice Bergeron, has multiple 30 and 20 goal seasons, is excellent on faceoffs, is a true #1 center, and only makes .65 mil more a year than Cirelli.

Top three Selke candidate, 40 goal scorer Elias Lindholm, also better on faceoffs, has two years remaining on a 4.8 AAV contract.

 

[Stammertime91]

Cirelli just doesn't have the shot to hit 40 goals so expecting that or using Lindholm's career year to compare is a reach. Bergeron also plays with very good linemates who he has chemistry with and he's not an offensive slouch or vanilla in that area. Bergeron has been one of the most consistent players I've seen play the game over my almost 20 years watching hockey. He has the IQ for offense and legitimately has game breaking playmaking abilities and has scored quite a few goals at different times in his career.

Those are two outliers, one that's been the gold standard and one that capitalized on a high scoring year with better tools in the toolbox. No justification for Cirelli who underperformed offensively when he had his chances this postseason, just saying, that's a reach. My disappointment with Cirelli isn't really regular season play. It comes from the postseason. I thought 2021 was his best, the rest are not really glamorous production wise. 2020 was good defensively for him iirc, but 2021 was the only standout for me and even then, that's not "core" worthy numbers.

Which, ultimately polarizes the pros and cons of a player. He accepts the shutdown role but do we excuse him from scoring a goal in like +20 games just because? I want to see him hit another level offensively but I'm not sure he has that in him.

 

[Sky04]

Cirelli just doesn't have the shot to hit 40 goals so expecting that or using Lindholm's career year to compare is a reach. Bergeron also plays with very good linemates who he has chemistry with and he's not an offensive slouch or vanilla in that area. Bergeron has been one of the most consistent players I've seen play the game over my almost 20 years watching hockey. He has the IQ for offense and legitimately has game breaking playmaking abilities and has scored quite a few goals at different times in his career.

Those are two outliers, one that's been the gold standard and one that capitalized on a high scoring year with better tools in the toolbox. No justification for Cirelli who underperformed offensively when he had his chances this postseason, just saying, that's a reach. My disappointment with Cirelli isn't really regular season play. It comes from the postseason. I thought 2021 was his best, the rest are not really glamorous production wise. 2020 was good defensively for him iirc, but 2021 was the only standout for me and even then, that's not "core" worthy numbers.

Which, ultimately polarizes the pros and cons of a player. He accepts the shutdown role but do we excuse him from scoring a goal in like +20 games just because? I want to see him hit another level offensively but I'm not sure he has that in him.

I'm pretty sure that was the run where he couldn't do anything becuase the layoff effected his skating. He was a blackhole everywhere on the ice that year, either way there's just been too many instances where he comes up completely dry in the playoffs. 34 points in 92 games is pretty abysmal, 2022 is the only run where he was used as a the primary defensive center, we had Gourde's line doing that the previous 2 years.

 

[DFC]

Actual Selke trophy winner, Patrice Bergeron, has multiple 30 and 20 goal seasons, is excellent on faceoffs, is a true #1 center, and only makes .65 mil more a year than Cirelli.

Top three Selke candidate, 40 goal scorer Elias Lindholm, also better on faceoffs, has two years remaining on a 4.8 AAV contract.

Yeah but Lindholm is not gonna sign for 4.8 again. If he keeps up his offensive production, he's looking at 9ish. And Bergeron signed might as well have signed his contract in Biblical times.

6.25 is not elite level money anymore. We all wish the contract had come in a little lower, but that's because we're wishing for a bargain. And I'm there with you. I miss the bargain deals. But I think it's going too far to say Cirelli isn't worth a big contract because he's not as offensively dangerous as some of the best two-way players in the game (Bergeron might actually be the best two-way player of all time). If he were, this contract would have been A LOT bigger.

 

[DFC]

Cirelli just doesn't have the shot to hit 40 goals so expecting that or using Lindholm's career year to compare is a reach. Bergeron also plays with very good linemates who he has chemistry with and he's not an offensive slouch or vanilla in that area. Bergeron has been one of the most consistent players I've seen play the game over my almost 20 years watching hockey. He has the IQ for offense and legitimately has game breaking playmaking abilities and has scored quite a few goals at different times in his career.

Those are two outliers, one that's been the gold standard and one that capitalized on a high scoring year with better tools in the toolbox. No justification for Cirelli who underperformed offensively when he had his chances this postseason, just saying, that's a reach. My disappointment with Cirelli isn't really regular season play. It comes from the postseason. I thought 2021 was his best, the rest are not really glamorous production wise. 2020 was good defensively for him iirc, but 2021 was the only standout for me and even then, that's not "core" worthy numbers.

Which, ultimately polarizes the pros and cons of a player. He accepts the shutdown role but do we excuse him from scoring a goal in like +20 games just because? I want to see him hit another level offensively but I'm not sure he has that in him.

Honestly I thought he was terrible in both cup runs, and there were nights in 2021 where he was our worst player. I think this past SCF run was actually his best playoff performance. Even while very injured, he managed to shut down a handful of the top 10 forwards in the league. He made Barkov absolutely ineffective, and he made MacKinnon a secondary scorer. There aren't a lot of guys in the league who can do that.

 

[JoVel]

Yeah but Lindholm is not gonna sign for 4.8 again. If he keeps up his offensive production, he's looking at 9ish. And Bergeron signed might as well have signed his contract in Biblical times.

Yeah, Cirelli has work to do to live up to this contract but comparing it to some of the best deals in the league to make it look bad is just disingenuous. And these people probably know it too.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Gotta be hoping that cap is going up soon.

 

[Sky04]

Yeah but Lindholm is not gonna sign for 4.8 again. If he keeps up his offensive production, he's looking at 9ish. And Bergeron signed might as well have signed his contract in Biblical times.

6.25 is not elite level money anymore. We all wish the contract had come in a little lower, but that's because we're wishing for a bargain. And I'm there with you. I miss the bargain deals. But I think it's going too far to say Cirelli isn't worth a big contract because he's not as offensively dangerous as some of the best two-way players in the game (Bergeron might actually be the best two-way player of all time). If he were, this contract would have been A LOT bigger.

Sure but he still needs to be better than his current production. The cap is going to be stagnant for at least another 4 years, he's produced at 46 point pace over the last 3 seasons and an abysmal 33 point pace in the playoffs over the last 3 runs. You don't win with guys playing at fair value and below, especially when most of our guys are at high caphits now.

It's less depth and more emphasis on the guys getting paid to put in their share or more and I have a hard time seeing Cirelli match or exceed this cap value.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Gotta be hoping that cap is going up soon.

After this coming season and the next one. Then it’ll go up a fair bit.

 

[DFC]

Sure but he still needs to be better than his current production. The cap is going to be stagnant for at least another 4 years, he's produced at 46 point pace over the last 3 seasons and an abysmal 33 point pace in the playoffs over the last 3 runs. You don't win with guys playing at fair value and below, especially when most of our guys are at high caphits now.

It's less depth and more emphasis on the guys getting paid to put in their share or more and I have a hard time seeing Cirelli match or exceed this cap value.

I think if he were better offensively, he'd be in Ryan O'Reilly territory, and then, again, it's an even bigger contract. Agreed that the playoff scoring is too low for this kind of money though. I would really have preferred something with a 5 in front of it here, don't get me wrong, but I think it's not a gross overpayment. It's more... well, there's no discount here. He's a valuable guy and he got a big contract. Not a team-friendly contract, but not an absurd one either.

 

[Sky04]

I think if he were better offensively, he'd be in Ryan O'Reilly territory, and then, again, it's an even bigger contract. Agreed that the playoff scoring is too low for this kind of money though. I would really have preferred something with a 5 in front of it here, don't get me wrong, but I think it's not a gross overpayment. It's more... well, there's no discount here. He's a valuable guy and he got a big contract. Not a team-friendly contract, but not an absurd one either.

Well the difference is that O'Reilly and those other guys are their teams primary scoring centers as well, they go against top forwards and d-mans, Cirelli has a trio of elite forwards in front of him. The issue is that it's not even fair value which I don't anyone would have a problem with, it's that this is an overpayment for a position we have 9.5M and 8.5M already invested in. I guess it's a good problem to have and probably by design but his 1st 2 years are unprotected which means if there's cap trouble or a breakout player we plan on keeping Cirelli will be the one shipped out first.

 

[More 2004]

Actual Selke trophy winner, Patrice Bergeron, has multiple 30 and 20 goal seasons, is excellent on faceoffs, is a true #1 center, and only makes .65 mil more a year than Cirelli.

Top three Selke candidate, 40 goal scorer Elias Lindholm, also better on faceoffs, has two years remaining on a 4.8 AAV contract

If you want apples to apples calculate the cap % those hits were at the time of signing. Factor in age, future production. Then break down the advanced metrics to see what each is worth dollar wise. Ima get a beer while you are doing that let me know how it goes.

 

[OffBy1]

If you want apples to apples calculate the cap % those hits were at the time of signing. Factor in age, future production. Then break down the advanced metrics to see what each is worth dollar wise. Ima get a beer while you are doing that let me know how it goes.

I'm was curious to see myself.

Bergeron signed his deal after 2012-13 season when he was just short of 29 years old. 6.85 AAV was 10.6% of the team cap that year.
Regular Season (at the end of the 2013 season)
433 points in 579 games (.74 per game), and was a career +70, career, 55% faceoffs.
1 Selke trophy win
Playoffs (at the end of the 2013 season)
57 points in 83 games (.68 per game), career +29, 59% faceoffs

Cirelli's deal is 7.5% percent of our cap and he is 25 years old.
Regular Season
159 points in 294 games (.54 per game) is a +79, career 48% faceoffs.
1 5th place Selke trophy finish
Playoffs
43 points in 92 games, career +4, 46% faceoffs.

Cirelli's contract is 3.1% less of the team cap than Bergeron's 2013 contract. However, we're getting Cirelli's "prime earning" years, in theory, before he's peaked. Boston signed Bergeron in his prime at 28, almost 29, after 8 almost all better than any of Cirelli's seasons.

If we signed Cirelli for Bergeron's % of the cap it would have been 8.9 mil AAV instead of 6.2. So that says JB thinks Cirelli is only 2.7 mil AAV worse of a player than a prime earning 2013 Bergeron was in today's cap dollars.

Given the choice would you lock up 2022's Cirelli at 6.2 for 8 years, or Bergeron at his 2013 level of development at 8.9 for 8 years?

 

[Stammertime91]

 

[LightningStrikes]

What I’ve learned from this:

Cirelli < Bergeron
Cirelli’s contract < Bergeron’s contract

So we’re good right?

Imagine if we did have a peak Bergeron level player playing 3C though.

 

[Rschmitz]

What I’ve learned from this:

Cirelli < Bergeron
Cirelli’s contract < Bergeron’s contract

So we’re good right?

Imagine if we did have a peak Bergeron level player playing 3C though.

Do you think we have the forward talent to support Cirelli as 3C? I would think losing Palat means a consolidation of offensive talent on the top two lines

 

[DFC]

Well the difference is that O'Reilly and those other guys are their teams primary scoring centers as well, they go against top forwards and d-mans, Cirelli has a trio of elite forwards in front of him. The issue is that it's not even fair value which I don't anyone would have a problem with, it's that this is an overpayment for a position we have 9.5M and 8.5M already invested in. I guess it's a good problem to have and probably by design but his 1st 2 years are unprotected which means if there's cap trouble or a breakout player we plan on keeping Cirelli will be the one shipped out first.

Gotta think the return on him would be big, even with that contract.

I wonder if we will be even more reluctant to keep all three guys at their natural position now, and play one on the wing. ....just thinking, we used to play Gourde at C too. It really wasnt even fair to be that deep down the middle.

I guess an X factor could be Nick Paul. I know we cant COUNT on him getting better, but if he turns into a guy who can give some glue to a top line (like Palat) in the playoffs, I would have a lot more faith in the upcoming year(s). And i mean, if Paul was 22, that expectation wouldn't be unreasonable. But we have a decent history of developing older guys. Maybe not this old, but we got him a couple of years later than a guy like Gourde.

 

[OffBy1]

Here's an impressive stat for Cirelli. He led the team with takeaways (60) and had the 2nd fewest giveaways (13) among forwards with 70 games. Only Colton had fewer giveaways (8).

Cirelli also led the team in the postseason in takeaways, getting 30 more in only 23 games.