Annual predict to goal totals for Canes players in 18/19

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think 30 more then last season

So top 10 in the NHL (based on 17/18 numbers) and just behind the cup winning Capitals?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Thanks for the format, Big Daddy Cane.

Player	Goals	Comments
Aho	25	Points stay up, but goals go down
PDG	2	No Top 9 ice time this season.
Ferland	13	Spends time on all 3 lines and does ok, but never meshes. Traded at the deadline
Maenalanen	6	Early-season look gets 1 or 2, then gets sent down, returns after Ferland trade and gets 7 down the stretch playing with Aho, then Necas.
Martinook	4	The 4th line will not get scoring TOI
McGinn	12	Gets moved to 4th line in 2019.
Necas	15	Calling my shot. Defenses won’t know how to contain this kid. But lack of PP time hurts goal total.
Rask	10	Loses his role on the PP and the top 9
Staal	18	Nothing changes. Having McGinn and Williams won’t help matters. Slow start, scoring picks up after Foegele brought up.
Svechnikov	22	Impresses with Necas, but fails to convert on many quality chances. Breaks out the following year.
TT	25	Capitalizes on Aho’s setup and quality other winger
Williams	15	Slllllllow, but gets PP points
Zykov	17	Gets Aho and PP love, but not enough to stay on top line.
Foegele	8	Gets called up when McGinn and Ferland don’t fit with Staal.
CDH	3	Not a goal scorer
Faulk	0	traded before the season starts
Fleury	4	Shows us a bit
Hamilton	15	Drives everything, but doesn’t score as much
Pesce	5	Better scorer than his stats show
Slavin	6	Pretty static
TVR	4	pretty static

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

229 total, I think?

Just curious, but why do you think Aho's goals go down? Are you assuming he'll be at center thus taking away some of his offense? Do you think his SH% was too high and that will come back in check? Or just year to year variation and 25 isn't statistically that far away from 29? I could see his totals dropping slightly so not saying you are wrong, just wondering the rationale.

This past season, Aho didn't score a goal for the first 15 games, but then was very consistent month to month: Oct: 0, Nov: 5, Dec: 6, Jan: 6, Feb: 5, Mar: 6, Apr: 1 (in 3 games). The prior season, Aho didn't score a goal for the first 13 games as well and still hit 24.

 

[Svechhammer]

So top 10 in the NHL (based on 17/18 numbers) and just behind the cup winning Capitals?

Yeah but we're going to give up like 1500 goals

 

[geehaad]

Just curious, but why do you think Aho's goals go down? Are you assuming he'll be at center thus taking away some of his offense? Do you think his SH% was too high and that will come back in check? Or just year to year variation and 25 isn't statistically that far away from 29? I could see his totals dropping slightly so not saying you are wrong, just wondering the rationale.

Yes.

We have to use rationale to post here, now? I JUST DON'T LIKE THE GUY, OK? There...I said it.

Just a feeling, no logic behind it.

 

[Unsustainable]

So top 10 in the NHL (based on 17/18 numbers) and just behind the cup winning Capitals?

Just 30 more

 

[NotOpie]

I think Aho gets slightly fewer goals but adds a fair amount of assists IF he plays pivot all year. If that is the case, I anticipate Zykov on one wing and TT on the other. Both will be the beneficiary of Aho's largesse. Right now, I anticipate a line of McGinn/Staal/Svechnikov as a sneaky good offensive line that is also difficult to play against. A third line of Ferland/Necas/Williams would be interesting with Williams and Ferland actually providing veteran leadership/presence for Necas. It was noted that Ferland is a good skater, so I could easily see those two leading the rush while Williams trails for defensive and mop up purposes. While I'd like another proven scorer, I am excited to see what Zykov can do if he remains w/the Finns. Similarly, I think that McGinn and Staal are good complements to Svechnikov's creativity. Less posts for Brock mean more goals.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Player	Goals	Comments
Aho	32	Modest upgrade - my natural tendency is to curb expectations and say less than last year, but the kid's 21 and put up 29 without scoring in his first however many games last year. He's real good.
PDG	3	13th forward extraordinaire
Ferland	11	I think he's a 3rd line forward and the 21 goals were due to his linemates. Subject to increase if he sticks with Aho & TT (though that could be said of anyone on the list)
Maenalanen	1	I really don't know anything about this guy, but he's on the list, so sure, let's say he scores a goal
Martinook	9	Hoping for legitimate production from the 4th line - especially if a guy like Rask is centering. Has previously proven he can score
McGinn	15	Don't like the way people say hitting posts is basically a goal that wasn't. It's a missed shot. Goals are staying the same size this year.
Necas	13	Honestly I've got no idea. Feels right to temper Necas's expectations more than Svechnikov's
Rask	15	His "bad" last two seasons have seen him score 16 in 82 and 14 in 71. Role reduction, but if he's on the 4th line as most are penciling in, it's not a stretch to say he's the best 4th line center in the league.
Staal	23	Brind'Amour, who saw an offensive renaissance under Laviolette, helps Jordan to his best offensive season as a Hurricane.
Svechnikov	24	Laine scored 36 his rookie year. Patrick scored 13. Split the difference, and round down because he's a rookie, so we can't plan on that extra half a goal.
TT	23	Dude's 23 years old, scored 23 goals last year.
Williams	14	Modest production regression due to age
Zykov	16	Using Zykov as a catch-all - this is the amount that Zykov + everyone not on this list will score (Saarela, Foegele, etc.) If it's Zykov all year, sure, I'll take 16 from him.
CDH	1	This person doesn't score goals
Faulk	10	This person used to score goals and now doesn't. Subject to be reduced to 0 if he gets traded.
Fleury	1	This person will score one goal this year.
Hamilton	14	This person scores lots of goals, but is a defenseman, so I can't bank on 20 goals.
Pesce	4	This person will probably score 4 goals this year.
Slavin	7	This person will probably score 7 goals this year.
TVR	1	This person has an ambiguous role right now, and doesn't score even when he doesn't.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If my mental math is correct, that's 237 goals. I voted for 241-250 before I did this. Discrepancies all over.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Jeff Skinner will also score 0 goals for the Hurricanes this year.

Calling my shot now - the Canes will not trade for Skinner at the deadline.

 

[NotOpie]

Jeff Skinner will also score 0 goals for the Hurricanes this year.

Calling my shot now - the Canes will not trade for Skinner at the deadline.

Both of those seem unrealistic....so they just might happen.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Jeff Skinner will also score 0 goals for the Hurricanes this year.

Calling my shot now - the Canes will not trade for Skinner at the deadline.

Yeah, like he's going to waive his NMC to come to Carolina.

 

[Svechhammer]

Jeff Skinner will also score 0 goals for the Hurricanes this year.

Calling my shot now - the Canes will not trade for Skinner at the deadline.

$5 to anyone who proposes a Darling for Skinner over on the Trade Forum

 

[Lempo]

@Anton Dubinchuk

Laine scored 36 his rookie year. Patrick scored 13. Split the difference, and round down because he's a rookie, so we can't plan on that extra half a goal.

Patrik and Patrick were rookies too, and Andrei is an apostle name while Patrick was but a pesky saint. Upgrade to 25 or I'll snitch you to your priest.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think Necas might be a source for a surprise with 7-10 goals more than most predict. He didn't struggle at all against men in Czech or WC with 12 goals in 33 games. He's got top end speed, and he'll be playing with a couple good wingers. Seems likely he'll be pushing 20.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

@Anton Dubinchuk



Patrik and Patrick were rookies too, and Andrei is an apostle name while Patrick was but a pesky saint. Upgrade to 25 or I'll snitch you to your priest.

I like you.

Andrei also converted Russia and founded the Byzantine Church.

Patrick only converted Ireland, and it wasn’t even that hard because half of them already knew the traditions thanks to Joseph of Arimathea.

Mods, change it to 25. He’s convinced me.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Player	Goals	Comments
Aho	58	A goal for every named demon in Gehenna.
PDG	i	I have an irrational exuberance for Phil's game.
Ferland	4	Seven hundred shots on goal. Four land.
Maenalanen	n/a	This person does not exist.
Martinook	33 1/3	I like Martinook's Long Play game.
McGinn	threeve	Suck it, Trebek.
Necas	-127	Integer overflow error.
Rask	eleventy-one	On Bilbo's eleventy-first birthday, he gave the ring to Frodo. Big mistake.
Staal	0	Mark my words: he's going to struggle without his brother.
Svechnikov	47	Kalechnikov. He will change his number to 47 for next year, and will score 47 goals every year until he retires at 47.
TT	40
Williams	e	He's a natural goal scorer.
Zykov	0	Should have traded for Athanasiou, smdh
CDH	0
Faulk	50	...for the Minnesota Wild. Eric Staal, who we will get in return, will score 0 goals. Mark my words: he's going to struggle playing next to his brother.
Fleury	0	I'm bored now
Hamilton	o	bored
Pesce	0	bored
Slavin	0	so boring
TVR	3

[TBODY] T ( named tee /tiː/ [1] ) is the 20th letter in the modern English alphabet and the ISO basic Latin alphabet . It is the most commonly used consonant and the second most common letter in English-language texts. [2] (Note: for double T, this is doubly true.) Congenital diaphragmatic hernia ( CDH ) is a birth defect of the diaphragm. The most common type of CDH is a Bochdalek hernia; other types include Morgagni hernia, diaphragm eventration and central tendon defects of the diaphragm.
Van Riemsdyk, the younger brother of NHL forward James van Riemsdyk, took time to get noticed, going undrafted despite a stellar career at the University of New Hampshire. The Chicago Blackhawks signed him as a free agent on March 24, 2014.

Van Riemsdyk was named to the Hockey East All-Rookie Team in 2011-12 after scoring four goals and 19 points in 37 games as a freshman at New Hampshire. As a sophomore in 2012-13 he was named an NCAA First-Team All-American and a First-Team Hockey East All-Star after scoring eight goals and 33 points in 39 games, placing him second on the team in both assists (25) and points. He had 11 multipoint games, scoring a career-high four points Jan. 26, 2013, against Merrimack. [/TBODY]

 

[Lempo]

This person does not exist.

That's Michael Knight, not Maenalanen.

 

[Highway29]

Our forward group has too many unknowns.. waiting for that Faulk or Pesce trade

 

[GoldiFox]

Our forward group has too many unknowns.. waiting for that Faulk or Pesce trade

There are a lot of unknowns but there isn't much room for additions. Canes have been loading up the forward corps with AAAA talent.

LW: Ferland, McGinn, Zykov, Martinook, Foegele, and Di Giuseppe

One year from now that group could have realistically churned out zero top-6 wingers. Or maybe it generates 2-3 solid long-term options (Zykov breaks out, Ferland scores 20 and re-signs, McGinn moves his shot an inch inside, Foegele or PDG suprises). A lot of it is in the air, but the Canes seem dedicated to that group.

Fun Fact: Jordan Martinook is the highest paid LW on the team currently @ $1.8 million per year (assuming Aho at C and Teuvo at RW like the end of last year). When a team spends a total of ~$6 million total on their group of 4-5 LW then you can expect a commensurate result.

Player	Cap
Martinook	$1.8 million
Ferland	$1.7 million
McGinn	$887k
PDG	$750k
Zykov	$675k
TOTAL:	$5.81 million

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In total the entire Canes LW corps makes the same as Jeff Skinner's $5.75 million Cap. No wonder Dundon was ready to dump his salary with so many cheap options.

That is the difference between being at the Cap and being $18 million under the Cap. Competing teams have those extra 2-3 players making $5-10 million which makes a noticeable difference on paper.