I think it boils down to a few keys points that can be bucketed into past, present and future categories:
-Ladd
was a fantastic leader for the relocated franchise in Winnipeg. He came here that offseason and committed to a long term deal with the team. Since then, he has been one of the team's top performers, both in fancy and counting stats. We could scarcely have asked for more from him, given the player he was.
-
Today, he is having a poor year and I suspect he would tell you the same. Both his fancy and counting stats are off of their traditional levels. Whether that is injury, age, luck, or a combination of all three is impossible to know, but the fact remains that that is the player we are seeing today. The degree to which the Jets are able to determine the relative contributions of those factors will be critically important in assessing the next section...
-The most important things for Jets fans and management is the player that Ladd will be
tomorrow; both literally (as in "against the Red Wings") and figuratively (as in "over the next six and a half seasons"). Presumably, the person and leader that Ladd is has not changed and will not change over the foreseeable future. I'm not sure how to value that, but it is not zero.
Since time only moves in one direction, I feel I'm safe in saying that he will continue to get older (although some here may disagree
); and with that age will come a degradation in his play. The questions, of course, are "what is the baseline from which he declines?" and "what will be his rate of decline?".
Only the Jets and Ladd can know his health situation, so I will not address it here.
All of this is to say that the only thing the Jets can consider going forward are those elements in this third section. The player Ladd was and, to a lesser extent, is, are barely relevant for the decision about what to do with him going forward. It is only the player he
will be that matters.
If he natural starting point lies somewhere between he player he was last year (Ryan Kessler at $7.8 million salary in the first year of his new deal) and the player he is this year (I'm struggling for a comparable here...maybe $5 million) let's say Year 1 of a new deal splits the difference at $6.4.
Everthing I have heard (ok...everything Lawless has said) suggests they are looking at a 6 (gulp) year deal. If that's the case and you start at 6.4, the $$$ would have to go 6.4, 6.2, 6.0, 5.8, 5.4, 4.8 for an AAV of $5.77, for me to start feeling comfortable and even then, I think we are on the high end. If his actual starting level of play is what we are seeing this year, virtually no aging curve will make that contract look good.