Andrew Berkshire: Ranking the Top 20 Defencemen in the NHL, by the Numbers

Machinehead

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Jan 21, 2011
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wow that is a bad list but expected from the advanced stat worshippers

Not really. I think the list is a mess.

He's taking several advanced stats which tend to be pretty reliable on their own, though some are very limited, and he's attempting to combine them all into one untested rating.

It's not advanced stats as much as it it Berkshire's opinion with some numbers.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
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Believe it or not, he's also not putting enough stock in corsi as weird as that sounds.

We use corsi because it's an overarching result based on possession which encompasses many intricate aspects of the game.

Berkshire is ignoring the results to focus on the intricacies.

Who cares if Niskanen is better at D-zone passes and carry-outs? OEL (who is behind him on this list) is still a better overall possession player by a noticeable margin.

If you look at success rates, shot location, and velocity, you could probably come up with a metric to prove that Matt Belesky shoots the puck better than Wayne Simmonds, but who's the better overall goal-scorer? Obviously Simmonds.
 

XX

Waiting for Ishbia
Dec 10, 2002
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List is instantly invalidated by Niskanen at 9. Really calls into the question the methodology right away.
 

Nucker101

Foundational Poster
Apr 2, 2013
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Advanced stats that are commonly used today almost always overrate good players on bad teams and underrated good players on good teams. Also usually underrate special team play.

This is coming from someone who likes advanced stats.


But this guy is taking it to a whole new level with the stat categories he's using(as already pointed out).
 

WhatWhat

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Aug 7, 2014
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The amount of people that don't realize this is some guys opinion on which stats likely describe each category best and isn't changing his initial hypothesis to mend the results is astonishing.

It's an interesting look at a purely statistical ranking. I'm sure if he had more time and was more into building a correct model rather than putting out articles he could have tweaked it to better reflect the general consensus
 

triggrman

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Honestly, if I were to rate defensemen in the defensive zone, I'd use.

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team.
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances)
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions.
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.

Because to me, these are the most important things a defenseman does in the defensive zone.
 

Rabid Ranger

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Feb 27, 2002
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The amount of people that don't realize this is some guys opinion on which stats likely describe each category best and isn't changing his initial hypothesis to mend the results is astonishing.

It's an interesting look at a purely statistical ranking. I'm sure if he had more time and was more into building a correct model rather than putting out articles he could have tweaked it to better reflect the general consensus

I think most acknowledge that these exercises are just one guy's opinion. What it proves to me is you can make the numbers work to support virtually any viewpoint. Doesn't make it even remotely accurate though.
 

CDN24

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Jun 17, 2009
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Honestly, if I were to rate defensemen in the defensive zone, I'd use.

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team.
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances)
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions.
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.

Because to me, these are the most important things a defenseman does in the defensive zone.

This is great, this measures what a D man has to do in his end

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team
. (this tells me if the D-man is taking lots of risks and giving up high quality chances)
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances) exactly
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions. maybe relative to unsuccessful ones ie a %
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts Tells you how the coach views him relative to team.
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.
This is the most important bit. Corsi based QOC stats are weak in my opinion as everyone can make a shot attempt but the truly quality competition are guys like Mike bossy who were burying 1 in 5 of those shots.
 

triggrman

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This is great, this measures what a D man has to do in his end

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team
. (this tells me if the D-man is taking lots of risks and giving up high quality chances)
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances) exactly
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions. maybe relative to unsuccessful ones ie a %
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts Tells you how the coach views him relative to team.
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.
This is the most important bit. Corsi based QOC stats are weak in my opinion as everyone can make a shot attempt but the truly quality competition are guys like Mike bossy who were burying 1 in 5 of those shots.
Totally agree.

I cringe when I read that people say things like shot locations doesn't have an impact on goals scored, quality of competition doesn't impact it as much as quality of teammates, faceoff locations have minimal impact, etc. Or when they judge shot attempts the same as shots, or that all shots are equal.
 

6 Karlsson 5

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I am an advanced stat user, these are some wierd ass advanced stats. ex. loose puck recoveries/60, means you're chasing the puck more. Like Shattenkirk is not on my top 20 and I mostly use stats tto evaluate people.

you realize that recovering the puck means you got it back, right? It needs to be used in context.
You would probably say Bergeron is a good possession player, but yet he leads in loose puck recoveries for forwards, how is this possible if that means he is chasing....
 

6 Karlsson 5

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Aug 9, 2012
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Honestly, if I were to rate defensemen in the defensive zone, I'd use.

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team.
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances)
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions.
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.

Because to me, these are the most important things a defenseman does in the defensive zone.

can you demonstrate, through math, that an individual player can have repeatable results in altering the bolded...because, frankly know one cares what you think, its all about what you can prove

you are also getting into a slippery slope when qoc is ranked by points....offensive teams are apparently "harder" to play against, you really wanna take that stance?
 

triggrman

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can you demonstrate, through math, that an individual player can have repeatable results in altering the bolded...because, frankly know one cares what you think, its all about what you can prove

you are also getting into a slippery slope when qoc is ranked by points....offensive teams are apparently "harder" to play against, you really wanna take that stance?
Can you prove that a blocked shot is the same as a shot in the low slot? Because corsi rates them the same, and corsi is widely excepted here.

If not, I don't care what you think.
 

6 Karlsson 5

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Aug 9, 2012
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Can you prove that a blocked shot is the same as a shot in the low slot? Because corsi rates them the same, and corsi is widely excepted here.

If not, I don't care what you think.

no, but I can show you that corsi has a heavy correlation with winning...and that is all that matters...
 

6 Karlsson 5

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Aug 9, 2012
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So you're saying it's a great team stat but doesn't show individual defense?

Okay, I'll by that.
nah, I never said that

why isn't is good for individual defence? why would your method be better ? I mean if its so good you should be able to show correlation to winning
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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There's no reason to not count both overall shot attempts against and scoring chances against. Some teams, like LA, focus on limiting time and space inside the defensive zone to force turnovers. Just counting scoring chances wouldn't accurately represent the defensive impact of their players.

Problem with looking at relative sv% is that it's a hugely volatile metric, driven primarily by uncontrollable factors. Including it is more likely to infuse misinformation than actually help the formula. As an example, Bergeron has a season where he had one of the worst relative sv% in the league, the worst on his own team. Besides, it shouldn't be needed because what it represents will be covered by looking at high quality chances.

I'd also skip the successful transition. It's a slippery slope to start to include transition elements in a measure of defense. That's one of the reasons I don't like using possession based metrics as proof of defense. It's more a measurement to how little they have to play defense, rather than how good they are at it, in my opinion.

Forced turnovers, percentage of puck battles won, number of won battles and puck recoveries relative to team and possession could be useful. Some guys are just vastly more involved than others. In Toronto we had Dion who was pretty successful at what he did, it's just that his skating meant that he never got to engage as often as you'd like.

You could also look at something like percentage of shot attempts blocked. It would mostly show how successful the player is at blocking the puck when an attempt is necessary.
 

fiveonfive

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Feb 2, 2016
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Honestly, if I were to rate defensemen in the defensive zone, I'd use.

Goalie's save percentage relative to the team.
Scoring chances against (I mean isn't the goal to reduce scoring chances)
Forced turnovers in the defensive zone
Successful transitions.
Goals against relative to the team.
Defensive zone starts
Quality of competition measured by number of points from forwards, not by corsi.

Because to me, these are the most important things a defenseman does in the defensive zone.

Totally agree.

I cringe when I read that people say things like shot locations doesn't have an impact on goals scored, quality of competition doesn't impact it as much as quality of teammates, faceoff locations have minimal impact, etc. Or when they judge shot attempts the same as shots, or that all shots are equal.

Shot locations matter for individual shots. But when you are looking at a population of 1000 shots, it's unlikely that one player only took shots from the blue like and the other from the slot. If it were true it would show up in their shooting %. No one has ever claimed that 1 break away is equal to a shot from centre ice - other than you. Have you ever seen a box score where one team had 50 shots and another team had 10, but the 50 were all from the blue line while the 10 were all breakaways? Me neither.

Same with quality of competition.One shif vs Crosby compared to one shift vs Glass? Obviously there is a difference. But have you ever seen a season worth of play where one first pairing Dman played their entire TOI vs Crosby but the Other first pairing Dman playd against Glass? Me neither. I have however seen one player play 50% of their ice time with Kopitar while another player played 50% of their ice time with Sean Monahan. Which one do you think had an easier time?

Faceoff locations have minimal impact over a course of a season. That has been shown a countless number of times. Obviously it takes more than one play to see the relationship.

Can you prove that a blocked shot is the same as a shot in the low slot? Because corsi rates them the same, and corsi is widely excepted here.

If not, I don't care what you think.

What does "Corsi rates them the same" mean? That's not even true or the reason why corsi is a valuable indicator. Where did you get this bizzare idea?

Corsi works, because over 10 games or more, a team takes hundreds of shot attempts and conceded hundreds of shot attempts. Some are high danger, some are low. The distribution high danger shots/ medium danger shots/ low danger between teams is not nearly as different as their #of shot attempts taken or faced though. Like I said earlier, have you ever seen one team continuesly have breakaways and the other shoot from center ice? It's more likely that if you gave up more total shots, you game up more shots from the slot as well.
 

LeaferGeezer

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Ah this numbers crap is stupid and doesn't tell half of the story. Fun for stat guys who want hockey to be like baseball, but they're kidding themselves if they think this beats the eye test.

With that being said they got a few things right in here but only a few.
 

gorangers0525

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Dec 15, 2014
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Lol at goalie's save percentage relative to team being a defensive stat. A. A goalie's save percentage is largely independent from defenseman performance. B. What results in less goals against? Saving 95% of 100 shots or saving 97% of 200 shots? Not to mention all that extra time the team is spending not scoring goals on the other side of the rink.
 

gorangers0525

Registered User
Dec 15, 2014
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Ah this numbers crap is stupid and doesn't tell half of the story. Fun for stat guys who want hockey to be like baseball, but they're kidding themselves if they think this beats the eye test.

With that being said they got a few things right in here but only a few.



Username fits perfectly lol
 

triggrman

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Lol at goalie's save percentage relative to team being a defensive stat. A. A goalie's save percentage is largely independent from defenseman performance. B. What results in less goals against? Saving 95% of 100 shots or saving 97% of 200 shots? Not to mention all that extra time the team is spending not scoring goals on the other side of the rink.

If you're good a not allowing quality scoring chances, you're goalie is going to have better stats than when you allow a lot of high quality scoring chances. To me, this is common sense.

What's better, giving up 120 low percentage shots against, or 105 higher percentage shots against?
 

CDN24

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no, but I can show you that corsi has a heavy correlation with winning...and that is all that matters...

Correlation does not equal causation. If you could show me that Corsi causes winning that would mean something. As it is maybe winning causes good Corsi.

I actually like Corsi as a team stat as there are no quality of competition biases. On the individual level it tells you what happened but not why.

Good coaches use their better defensive d-man against the forwards who can score not just the guys who shoot a lot. It does not balance out, coaches are not rolling 4 lines and 3 d pairs.

Back to this Berkshire list while not based only on Corsi it is based on stats that do not pass the smell test. If this was so predictive of team success one would expect some of these top guys to have helped their teams a little bit more.

Hockey is a team game, winning teams are usually greater than the sum of their parts. Really it requires players who complement each other. A defense full of Karlssons and Burns' will not win a cup. You need a few Vlasics and Webers mixed in to provide the balance.
 

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