Player Discussion: Andrei Vasilevskiy - Part 2
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JTBF81
Registered User
Granted he missed a good chunk of the early season, and who knows if his back is the same, but we're seeing many of the same problems as last year all over again. Of course the new defensive system is a pile and so is the defense in general, but far, far too often after games it's been fair to say that Vasy has been the 2nd best G on the ice. When you're gwtting paid the 2nd highest salary at your position and playing like a mid tier player at best, there's a serious problem.
Sky04
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- Jan 8, 2009
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Nah he's fine not his fault just get a couple 7m defensive dmen and we'll be fine.
Stammertime91
TBL: TEAM OF THE CENTURY
Todd1a
Kucherov or prospect
Todd1a
Kucherov or prospect
Yep I bet he will have some bad years then one year he will just put it all together lol
I don’t blame the Lightning brass at all for this contract. And Vassy himself wants to be great, we know he’s gonna put in the work. The back injury has to be a factor but we started seeing issues last season. Have to believe he’s got a couple strong seasons left in him, but the days of him being the best goalie in the NHL appear to be over. That sucks
Stammertime91
TBL: TEAM OF THE CENTURY
I almost think it's vision more than the back. It's a tracking issue to me. I never played goalie but the issue "from distance" or at the blueline for a goalie so incredibly gifted down low is bizarre. Has been for the last couple years but this year, easier shots seem to be going in and more frequently. Obviously he's not out there with one eye, but it's like vision and timing are out of sync and it's not getting better.
Sky04
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We started seeing issues 2 years ago, most of you were just blinded by it. Funny how 3 games ago he was fine but now all of a sudden somethings wrong? No its been like this for awhile. Like I've said before, outside the 2022 cup run of ~20 games he's been extremely average in the other ~160 recent ones.
McDonagh and Cernak were probably the best shut down pair in the league too so that's also a factor but it shouldn't be this bad for a 9.5m goalie. Big reason why it's stupid to invest big in a goalie is the variance in their level of play is significantly larger than anyone else and then they take up cap room for other players who could be helping them decrease that variance. Prime example is Carey Price. Bob is doing ok-ish now but the Panthers have been hampered by that contract for the majority of the time since they signed it.
McDonagh and Cernak were probably the best shut down pair in the league too so that's also a factor but it shouldn't be this bad for a 9.5m goalie. Big reason why it's stupid to invest big in a goalie is the variance in their level of play is significantly larger than anyone else and then they take up cap room for other players who could be helping them decrease that variance. Prime example is Carey Price. Bob is doing ok-ish now but the Panthers have been hampered by that contract for the majority of the time since they signed it.
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Giving him the benefit of the doubt because he was an all star, Vezina and Conn Smythe winning goalie with 7 previous seasons with a save % of .915 - .925, is a strange definition of being "blinded".
I guess you also saw the back surgery coming? You seem to have already forgotten about it or are you just completely discounting it? Sorry to cloud your vindication, but back surgeries have been known to affect people and we'll never know how Vasy's career would have been without the injury.
And you are wrong as I've pointed out to you before. He finished 9th in save % among goalies who played 40 or more games in 2022-2023. Shesterkin barely beat him with a .916 save % and that's on a team that plays defense as they were 4th best in GAA that year. 9th out of 26 goalies and .001 behind Shesterkin and .004 behind Saros is "extemely average"?
Sky04
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Yeah let's blame the surgery now I guess we've never seen players recover from them before. Where was he trending before injury? Seems like picked up right where he left off, or a massive improvement given that Leafs series.
Sure if we go by your arbitrary 40 games it looks better then him actually placing 12th and 15th in both categories, 2nd highest paid for middle of the pack results.
We are where we are because of performances like this where their play doesn't match their caphit. We're at the point here where guys here are talking like any other goalie in the league doesn't have to deal with breakaways and screen shots.
I think it's a fair question to ask if a goalie is worth their cap hit, but no goalie should be expected to always play at an elite level. Goalies are notoriously inconsistent, it comes with the territory. With the exception of maybe Hasek you could literally go back over the last 30 years and cherry pick every great goalie and find years they've stunk it up, it's sort of the price you pay for the times they carry you. Scouting is simply too good and players too smart to not exploit their tendencies. Even this season goaltending stats are all over the place, every year you get a lot of unknowns who crack into the top 5-10 because it's everyones first time through the batting order so to speak.
I'll take average goaltending as a floor though, unless your argument is that Vasy is just never going to make an adjustment and is a .900 goaltender. If you think he's never going to get back to playing at an elite level make it clear now so I can bookmark this page.
Stephen
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Just jumping in here as a goalie fan for a second, but paying a goalie $9-$10 million per season means you're often threading the needle between past and future performance.
For example, unless you put together a substantial resume like Vasi over a number of years, win all sorts of awards and championships, you don't get to that gaudy number.
But once you've put the track record together to earn that number, it's a question of how many more X/8 years of previous play you still have.
So more than positional players, goalies absolutely bring $10 million value, but is a question of when that contract is ultimately put into their hands.
Byrddog
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The bottom line is we really have no clue to the cause of his drop off in play it’s conjecture. We no doubt have a weaker defense, we also have a number of players just making bonehead passes that turn over at bad times, and then how much did the surgery hurt him.
Having had 10 surgeries on different areas of my body I know that none of the areas are as strong as before. The surgical site for Vasi is healed but the is inflammation to consider and his range of motion. While it is too early for arthritis to be apparent in the next couple years that may well be an issue as well.
It has been a perfect storm of things that could all have an impact on his play. As far as salary well unless something worsens to the point he lands on the LTIR there is nothing to be done. The thing is what I brought up preseason and during his recovery that scoring may not be able to keep pace with the goals they allow and that thus far seems to be correct especially when playing from behind.
I hope Vasi can return to his old ability’s be the issues physical or mental. The thing is goalies do not bounce back as well as skaters. With this roster it is imperative to have a elite goalie right now Vasi does not meet that level.
Having had 10 surgeries on different areas of my body I know that none of the areas are as strong as before. The surgical site for Vasi is healed but the is inflammation to consider and his range of motion. While it is too early for arthritis to be apparent in the next couple years that may well be an issue as well.
It has been a perfect storm of things that could all have an impact on his play. As far as salary well unless something worsens to the point he lands on the LTIR there is nothing to be done. The thing is what I brought up preseason and during his recovery that scoring may not be able to keep pace with the goals they allow and that thus far seems to be correct especially when playing from behind.
I hope Vasi can return to his old ability’s be the issues physical or mental. The thing is goalies do not bounce back as well as skaters. With this roster it is imperative to have a elite goalie right now Vasi does not meet that level.
I think the deal was done under the expectation that on average goalies typically take longer to reach their peak and that his prime years are still in front of him.
A back injury could easily derail that though
T REX
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- Feb 28, 2013
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I want to amend my post.
Vasy has been awesome for us.
Zero doubt. His play recently has sucked.
As others have pointed out...it is hard for goalies to live up to a max salary.
Just disappointed in the team's play.
Bolt for life.
Vasy has been awesome for us.
Zero doubt. His play recently has sucked.
As others have pointed out...it is hard for goalies to live up to a max salary.
Just disappointed in the team's play.
Bolt for life.
I think it's more like, when we see a prolonged period with not just sub-par play, but, at times, just flat out terrible play, Vasy shouldn't be immune to criticism just because he's the goalie. His performance against Toronto last year was brutal (literally the worst goalie of the 1st round), and that's just not really acceptable for a guy in his position, especially without the excuse of aging.
Personally I think Vasy looks like he might just be making some adjustments lately. The long shots aren't quite so scary, or at least not regularly scary. But there is still the problem that he is rarely outplaying the guy at the other end of the ice. Nobody's saying he has to be the best goalie every single night, but for the last year and a half or so, it just seems way too often that he is not matching the performance of the guy opposite him.
Again, I think there's plenty of reason for optimism in Vasy's case, but I don't think the criticism has been unwarranted. It would be like Kucherov playing at a 40 point pace for 18 months.
I hope that objectively, our posters here can accept the truth that he's the biggest reason why we are massively under performing this year while also not going full chicken little. It's not just the long range shots, but he's let in back breakers as well when we needed a save.
However I'm beginning to see too many posts blaming him for every goal, instead of rightfully pointing to the defense in front of him.
Agreed. Acknowledging evidence on both sides isn't the easiest thing to do, especially when forums in general tend to be fairly argumentative.
Recognizing that he hasn't been as good as he needs to be, and at times he's been a lot worse than that, is a lot different than saying he's never been good or he never will be good again.
We do need him to be a lot better than this in order to keep the window remotely open. All other factors aside (the window can close for a number of reasons), it's hard to imagine us being competitive if Vasy doesn't regain at least SOME of his form. Not even necessarily all of it.
Bozo Nicholson
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- Jun 6, 2015
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It’s a combination of Vasy underperforming and this shithole D system that is structured in a way which amplifies his weaknesses. A heinous symbiotic relationship.
Stammertime91
TBL: TEAM OF THE CENTURY
I wonder how much is mental, too. He looks pissed and bummed out whenever he let's in the first one. And yes, I've watched his whole career with us and he's always been competitive and shown that side, but to me since his return, he looks bothered. By that I mean mentally, like he's pissed at what's happening and how he's being beaten. It's almost like a desync between mind and body and he's trying to cope. The tracking issue is there along with a nightly softie. I feel like those two trends have gained so much steam its writing his nightly performance more often than not.
Very early on, he struggled with rebound control and that was a glaring issue. Obviously nearly a decade ago, but it's improved to the point where that doesn't define him. The whole "shots from the point" and occasional softie are now becoming looming clouds over his head. I feel like a good string of games would sift through his mental state being an issue but then there's also recovery both in general and from surgery. I just don't get what I'm seeing from him given what we know he's capable of.
Very early on, he struggled with rebound control and that was a glaring issue. Obviously nearly a decade ago, but it's improved to the point where that doesn't define him. The whole "shots from the point" and occasional softie are now becoming looming clouds over his head. I feel like a good string of games would sift through his mental state being an issue but then there's also recovery both in general and from surgery. I just don't get what I'm seeing from him given what we know he's capable of.
So that's a "yes" to completely discounting the back surgery. Who are these goaltenders you speak of that had back surgery and didn't skip a beat the same season? Is Vasy like the only one playing worse after?
And trending? I've covered the previous season where he was .915 over 60 games vs the egg he laid in the playoffs which was 6 games. I guess a string of 6 bad games after the previous 60 were on par with your career numbers means you're finished.
Kinda like when we were swept by the Blue Jackets in 4 games where he had an .856 save % in the 2018-2019 playoffs? I guess we should have realized his career was over then too, except after that season he won us two cups and the Con Smythe.
Arbitrary - really? How many games does a goalie have to play to be considered a starter vs a backup? Consistency over 40 or the 60 games Vasy played last year is a lot harder than backups playing 20-30 games. Last year he had the 7th best save % among goalies who played at least 50 games, and he was 6th out of 7 that played 60 games, though he was only .004 away from being tied for 3rd best. He struggled at times last year, but he was only .003 off his career average.
Yes, Vasy is one of several players not playing up to his cap hit. Vasy has had the most success of those under performing players and has been the best goalie in franchise history and for most of his seven years as starter, so yeah, he's been given a lot more slack than others.
