Andrei Loktionov

[Ole Gil]

If Riley Nash were replaced with any 3rd line center in the league, and playing with Jeff Skinner and Tuomo Ruutu, do you think they'd be getting a bunch of defensive zone faceoffs ahead of Dvorak/Malholtra/Bowman and Gerbe/Staal/Dwyer?

It's common sense. It's context. It's stuff that people into advanced statistics should be very into, because the goal is to explain the game and predict outcomes. If you are going to ignore context, you might as well stick with +/- and point totals.

 

[Ole Gil]

As far as Malhotra goes, I don't know how many times I need to state that shots beget scoring chances which beget goals. What constitutes good defense is limiting all of these. Malhotra is dead last in shots against, fourth worst in goals against/60, and I don't have updated numbers for scoring chances (they're hand tracked), but I'm sure he's near the bottom in those too. Like I said, some of it is a product of his usage and linemates, but he hasn't been that great either.

Ignoring all the other variables, Malhotra gets 23.4% Ozone starts.

No other Center on the Canes gets less than 50% ozone starts.

All other things being equal, there is obviously an adjustment that has to be made to compare someone getting 23% ozone starts to someone getting 50%+ ozone starts in regards to Corsi, GA/60, etc...Right?

What isn't obvious is what that adjustment is. I certainly don't know. I don't think you do either. All we know is that it exists, and that comparing Malholtra to the Staal's and Nash without applying the mystery statistical adjustment is apples and not apples. (and all this doesn't even address linemates/qoc/coaches instructions)

Which is why I keep saying "What should Malhotras stats be?"

And there are two sets of stats for this too.

What should they be as the shutdown line with Gerbe and Dwyer. And what should they be as the auxillary defensive line with Dvorak and Bowman.

The numbers exist, even if they aren't known by us. There are stats that would indicate average performance in these situations, and we'd be able to compare Malhotra's stats in similar situations to them.

That, to me, would be advanced statistics. And it's probably being done somewhere. But, unfortunately, I think a dumbed down version has trickled down to us, leaving us either misapplying the statistics or making wild unfounded guesses.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

If you are going to ignore context, you might as well stick with +/- and point totals.

No, some stats have more context built into them than +/- does. The end goal of the sports statistician is to build metrics with inherent context. Not every stat succeeds in that, but some are better than others. From "this stat is not perfect", it most certainly does not follow that "this stat is no better than +/-".

--hank

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Back to Loktionov...I believe I saw him last night score a PP goal on a rebound from right in front of the net. That has to count for something, considering our 6'3" brothers find that an area inconvenient to populate.

 

[What the Faulk]

I'm not going to begin to delve into any of that, because it's just talking in circles at this point. Context is the definition of advanced statistics. By shot differential alone, Malhotra would be one of the worst forwards in the leagues. But I've caveated his numbers multiple times. It's not impossible to succeed in that usage, though. Brandon Bollig has the most defensive starts in the league and is still running a positive differential.

But there's a point where you just have to say, it's not good enough no matter the role. Throw all numbers aside and look at one: TOI. From November through Feburary, Malhotra failed to crack 10 minutes six times. He's played under 10 minutes in all nine March games, including a Riley Nash-esque 4:39 against the Rangers, and spending time as a healthy scratch. He played just 6:06 last night.

Even Muller is losing trust in him.

 

[bleedgreen]

He and Riley Nash are the same player. I don't see it being beneficial to have both on the team.

We must not be watching the same players. Nash has two cement blocks for hands, isn't a particularly good passer, and doesn't see the play from an offensive view very well. Lokti is the polar opposite of those statements. He isn't strong, ain't gonna bowl over anyone along the boards, and he isn't a sniper but he adds an element of skill this team sorely lacks.

Nash is a black hole with the puck, though he is stronger and better along the boards.

Malhotra is either hurt or completely out of gas, which is understandable. He deserves to come back, he's one of the better fourth line centers in the league. If he doesn't out price himself we should resign him. It would cost us the same at last to bring someone else in, and how many would be truly better? Suffice it to say I disagree with you wtf.

He's a better player than what he's been lately.

 

[RodTheBawd]

We must not be watching the same players. Nash has two cement blocks for hands, isn't a particularly good passer, and doesn't see the play from an offensive view very well. Lokti is the polar opposite of those statements. He isn't strong, ain't gonna bowl over anyone along the boards, and he isn't a sniper but he adds an element of skill this team sorely lacks.

Nash is a black hole with the puck, though he is stronger and better along the boards.

They have similar stats, therefore, they are the same player.

I'd love to have Manny back. He definitely fell off in the 2nd half, but as you said, it's either injury related or age/conditioning catching up to him. Both things he could correct in the offseason.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

Malhotra, Gerbe, Loktionov, Dwyer, Bowman, Dvorak, etc. What this bottom 6 lacks is muscle and toughness. If Rutherford thinks he can ice 18 soft skaters night after night and compete in the East, he's delusional. Somewhere in that top 6, you need one guy who can bang. The bottom six also needs a mule, as does the blueline.

 

[raynman]

Malhotra, Gerbe, Loktionov, Dwyer, Bowman, Dvorak, etc. What this bottom 6 lacks is muscle and toughness. If Rutherford thinks he can ice 18 soft skaters night after night and compete in the East, he's delusional. Somewhere in that top 6, you need one guy who can bang. The bottom six also needs a mule, as does the blueline.

Man that bottom 6 is pitiful. You really don't get an idea of how bad it is until you list all of the players. I just browsed through this summer's FA class and it seems as if there are some options for the 4th line. Don't know about the 3rd line though.

 

[bb99]

Back to Loktionov...I believe I saw him last night score a PP goal on a rebound from right in front of the net. That has to count for something, considering our 6'3" brothers find that an area inconvenient to populate.

Exactly. It was refreshing to see someone go there and cash in one. You'd think Eric especially would know he has to go there.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Most of the guys in our bottom 6 are nothing special. I wouldn't lose sleep over losing most of them, and I hope we do lose most of them. Gerbe is the only guy that I really care about keeping in the bottom 6.

 

[Ole Gil]

Gerbe and Dwyer are very important to this team.

Last year, they were 28th on the PK (77.8 3SHG). This year, they're 17th (81.6 10SHG).

And if the team can figure out a guy to stick in the middle of those three not named Jordan Staal, the team can get a lot of hard important minutes on the defensive side of things from the bottom 6, which is a huge boon in terms of roster flexibility elsewhere.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

Somewhat of an interesting development in Pittsburgh.

Pens fans seem to prefer Goc over Sutter in a pure shutdown role. I would love Sutter back, but in case he resigns with Pittsburgh, Vitale will most likely be the odd man out.

I hope we'll be able to acquire any one of the three this offseason.

 

[What the Faulk]

Sutter hasn't been that good in Pittsburgh, but I think he could re-find his game and maybe become a 20/20 guy here from the 3rd line. Depends on the price to acquire and sign, though.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I haven't been too up to speed on the draft yet, but it REALLY seems like Draisaitl would fit BPA AND a need, if we're drafting at around 6 or 7.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Sutter hasn't been that good in Pittsburgh, but I think he could re-find his game and maybe become a 20/20 guy here from the 3rd line. Depends on the price to acquire and sign, though.

I'd take 15-15 with the D he was playing here before.

Staal-Staal-Sutter-Malhotra is a pretty good lineup. Plus it's pretty clear where each of them are, which means hopefully they'll buy into their role as Vagrant was talking about.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

Sutter hasn't been that good in Pittsburgh, but I think he could re-find his game and maybe become a 20/20 guy here from the 3rd line. Depends on the price to acquire and sign, though.

Wouldn't be cheap. I'm sure most of us would be on board with Tlusty for Sutter straight up.

They both have comparable stats for the most part and it would address both teams' needs.

This season:
Sutter: 68gp, 11g, 23p, -2, 9.8s%
Tlusty: 59gp, 12g, 22p, +2, 10.4s%

Career:
Sutter: 402gp, 75g, 149p, +9
Tlusty: 335gp, 69g, 134p, +7

Also, comparable ages. Sutter just turned 25 and Tlusty just turned 26.

 

[Ole Gil]

It's not impossible to succeed in that usage, though. Brandon Bollig has the most defensive starts in the league and is still running a positive differential.

No forward with under 35% ozone starts has a positive Corsi Relative.

Bollig has a positive shot differential, but is by far on the worst line in terms of shot differential on the team.

Of all players with under 40% ozone start, that Chicago line has the only 3 players in the NHL with more than 20 games and a positive differential.

Stats for enjoyment:
(season), (Total Players with 20+ gp, <40%ozone starts), (with positive Corsi), (Have positive Corsi Relative)


13-14 39-3-3
12-13 41-7-10
11-12 35-2-3
10-11 31-4-3
--------------
Total 146-16-19.

So of the 146 player-seasons that've been assigned primarily defensive roles by their coach, only 16 have had a positive shot differential. Only 19 have been above the team average.

Now to draw a conclusion:

1) Coaches stick their weaker defensive players in the defensive zone the majority of the time, as is evidenced by people who always start predominantly in the dzone having bad shot differential numbers compared to the rest of the NHL and their teammates.

Or...

2) You're underestimating the effect of the extreme zone starts to an absurd degree. And the idea of comparing Malholtra to "the rest of the NHL" or "The other hurricane forwards" is non-sensical from a statistical perspective.

I know we're belaboring a point here, but it's an important (relative to inane hockey discussions )one. Particularly with the amount that "Shot differential" gets thrown around as the holy grail of advanced thinking on hockey.

 

[bleedgreen]

I don't think sutter has been much different than he was here. People expected continued development offensively but he is what he is. Without giving top six minutes or putting him on wing he was never gonna score more than he does.

 

[TheOllieC]

Yeah I'd probably trade Tlusty for Sutter but if Lindholm develops well and is that top 6 C we all hope he'd be then down the line EStaal would have to play wing most likely having Lindholm, JStaal, Sutter as centers.

That's a pretty good group.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Heard Lotki is doing great for you guys. Good to hear. He was never given a fair shot in his career under two systems who play a whole different style of hockey then what his game is. Ruutu's been alright for us. Player value wise it seems like it was a good trade, I just don't want Ruutu's contract.

 

[Vagrant]

Heard Lotki is doing great for you guys. Good to hear. He was never given a fair shot in his career under two systems who play a whole different style of hockey then what his game is. Ruutu's been alright for us. Player value wise it seems like it was a good trade, I just don't want Ruutu's contract.

He has certainly had a good stretch of games here. I'm willing to wait to see how he finishes the season, but I think he has at least played his way into another look next season when we have actual expectations. Not a huge fan of putting too much stock into garbage time (in terms of playoff relevancy) production when our coach is using a bit of a hopper to put guys together. He hasn't been 8 points in his last 8 games good in this stretch in my opinion. He's had some good puck luck, but production is production and we're not really in a place to question the "how" at this point. Especially on the PP. Getting some quality opportunities with some guys who have historically been productive NHL players.

I didn't reply in this thread before he went on this little streak, but in the interest of full disclosure I was decidedly meh about him. I do like his battle and how upright he stays on top of the puck. It may just be the jersey number but the way he glides into the offensive zone upright and on top of the puck reminds me a lot of Matt Cullen. The puck is never too far away from him and it allows for him to go in whatever direction the defense dictates.

He is one of those players that loves to have the puck on his tape in the offensive zone or else he's somewhat unsure what he's supposed to be doing. He'll reload the rush himself, circle all over the zone, and generally ignore passing options unless they're in prime scoring spots. But that seems to be a somewhat Russian attribute because Samsonov and Semin played that way too. He's skilled and quick enough to get away with it so it's not really a problem. He'll have to be careful about turnovers high in the offensive zone when we have guys trapped deep but he hasn't shown any evidence that will be a problem. He's a smart player and knows what he's risking when he's free wheeling like that.

Not great at faceoffs, but he's good enough defensively to play up the middle. Strong in the neutral zone. You can tell he spent some time in the Kings and Devils systems because of the emphasis he has on being a strong backchecker. I don't think those teams did enough to let him loose offensively but it's not surprising. The Devils and Kings are two of the hardest places for young players to break into.

He's better than like.... most of our remaining bottom six. *shrugs*

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

He has certainly had a good stretch of games here. I'm willing to wait to see how he finishes the season, but I think he has at least played his way into another look next season when we have actual expectations. Not a huge fan of putting too much stock into garbage time (in terms of playoff relevancy) production when our coach is using a bit of a hopper to put guys together. He hasn't been 8 points in his last 8 games good in this stretch in my opinion. He's had some good puck luck, but production is production and we're not really in a place to question the "how" at this point. Especially on the PP. Getting some quality opportunities with some guys who have historically been productive NHL players.

I didn't reply in this thread before he went on this little streak, but in the interest of full disclosure I was decidedly meh about him. I do like his battle and how upright he stays on top of the puck. It may just be the jersey number but the way he glides into the offensive zone upright and on top of the puck reminds me a lot of Matt Cullen. The puck is never too far away from him and it allows for him to go in whatever direction the defense dictates.

He is one of those players that loves to have the puck on his tape in the offensive zone or else he's somewhat unsure what he's supposed to be doing. He'll reload the rush himself, circle all over the zone, and generally ignore passing options unless they're in prime scoring spots. But that seems to be a somewhat Russian attribute because Samsonov and Semin played that way too. He's skilled and quick enough to get away with it so it's not really a problem. He'll have to be careful about turnovers high in the offensive zone when we have guys trapped deep but he hasn't shown any evidence that will be a problem. He's a smart player and knows what he's risking when he's free wheeling like that.

Not great at faceoffs, but he's good enough defensively to play up the middle. Strong in the neutral zone. You can tell he spent some time in the Kings and Devils systems because of the emphasis he has on being a strong backchecker. I don't think those teams did enough to let him loose offensively but it's not surprising. The Devils and Kings are two of the hardest places for young players to break into.

He's better than like.... most of our remaining bottom six. *shrugs*

well said. I hope we let him lose a bit. I've absolutely loved his brief time here this far

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

well said. I hope we let him lose a bit. I've absolutely loved his brief time here this far

You mean to get him adjusted to playing Carolina Hurricanes Hockeyâ„¢?

 

[Finnish Jerk Train]

You mean to get him adjusted to playing Carolina Hurricanes Hockeyâ„¢?

This guy knows what's up.