I fail to see how pointing out names of players, all but one picked after Kostitsyn, even up to 20 picks later, shows anything. I mean, for those players mentioned I could match it with Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Bernier, Parise, Getzlaf, Perry, and Bergeron. Kostitsyn may yet surpass some of those names, but right now most people would take those guys ahead.
Not a bad pick by any means, but could've been better, as this was a rediculously good draft.
Hey mate,
This isn't a shot at you, just thought I'd toss out a little bit of statistical background for this discussion (... and, yeah for anyone who cares to toss it out there, I know that stats don't measure all of anybody's presence on the ice, so please leave the "Captain Obvious" post at home).
I ran through the 1st round 2003 draft and ran career nhl stats (anyone know a good way to post a decent table in the forum?) for those that have played in the nhl - and for the sake of not comparing apples and oranges I've prettymuch left MA Fleury out of this. If you take career points per game average and re-rank, the draft goes like this:
Draft Position NAME PPG Career AVG RANK
2 ERIC STAAL 0.82 1
5 THOMAS VANEK 0.79 2
19 RYAN GETZLAF 0.68 3
6 MILAN MICHALEK 0.62 4
3 NATHAN HORTON 0.62 5
9 DION PHANEUF 0.62 6
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 0.61 7
16 STEVE BERNIER 0.60 8
17 ZACH PARISE 0.56 9
11 JEFF CARTER 0.53 10
28 COREY PERRY 0.50 11
24 MIKE RICHARDS 0.47 12
29 PATRICK EAVES 0.45 13
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 0.44 14
13 DUSTIN BROWN 0.39 15
15 ROBERT NILSSON 0.37 16
14 BRENT SEABROOK 0.36 17
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 0.28 18
23 RYAN KESLER 0.28 19
7 RYAN SUTER 0.26 20
20 BRENT BURNS 0.24 21
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 0.23 22
25 ANTHONY STEWART 0.20 23
8 BRAYDON COBURN 0.18 24
18 ERIC FEHR 0.12 25
30 SHAWN BELLE 0.11 26
21 MARK STUART 0.11 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0.00 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0.00 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0.00 30
If you re-rank according to 2006-07 points per game average you get:
Draft Position NAME PPG 2006-07 AVG RANK
5 THOMAS VANEK 1.00 1
2 ERIC STAAL 0.85 2
6 MILAN MICHALEK 0.85 3
3 NATHAN HORTON 0.74 4
17 ZACH PARISE 0.74 5
19 RYAN GETZLAF 0.68 6
9 DION PHANEUF 0.64 7
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 0.63 8
11 JEFF CARTER 0.56 9
28 COREY PERRY 0.55 10
16 STEVE BERNIER 0.53 11
13 DUSTIN BROWN 0.53 12
24 MIKE RICHARDS 0.53 13
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 0.50 14
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 0.48 15
29 PATRICK EAVES 0.41 16
23 RYAN KESLER 0.33 17
7 RYAN SUTER 0.29 18
20 BRENT BURNS 0.29 19
14 BRENT SEABROOK 0.26 20
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 0.26 21
15 ROBERT NILSSON 0.25 22
18 ERIC FEHR 0.21 23
8 BRAYDON COBURN 0.20 24
30 SHAWN BELLE 0.11 25
25 ANTHONY STEWART 0.10 26
21 MARK STUART 0.09 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0.00 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0.00 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0.00 30
Granted most folks will want to talk about career production thus far (where AK does fall significantly behind - as we will see), however that's hardly fair to any prospect heading into organizations that are either deep or believe in bringing prospects along slowly, especially when we talk about players just as they begin to enter the NHL. The following compares the same prospects based on career nhl point production... AK is way down the list, however, most of the guys ahead of him have significantly higher games played.
Draft Position Name NHL PTS RANK
2 ERIC STAAL 194 1
3 NATHAN HORTON 124 2
5 THOMAS VANEK 122 3
4 NIKOLAI ZHERDEV 118 4
6 MILAN MICHALEK 96 5
9 DION PHANEUF 96 6
19 RYAN GETZLAF 90 7
17 ZACH PARISE 87 8
11 JEFF CARTER 72 9
13 DUSTIN BROWN 72 10
28 COREY PERRY 66 11
24 MIKE RICHARDS 64 12
29 PATRICK EAVES 58 13
16 STEVE BERNIER 56 14
14 BRENT SEABROOK 51 15
23 RYAN KESLER 44 16
20 BRENT BURNS 42 17
7 RYAN SUTER 38 18
15 ROBERT NILSSON 21 19
10 ANDREI KASTSITSYN 12 20
22 MARC-ANTOINE POULIOT 11 21
27 JEFF TAMBELLINI 11 22
8 BRAYDON COBURN 9 23
25 ANTHONY STEWART 4 24
18 ERIC FEHR 3 25
21 MARK STUART 3 26
30 SHAWN BELLE 1 27
1 MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 0 28
12 HUGH JESSIMAN 0 29
26 BRIAN BOYLE 0 30
So, all this is food for discussion, but I will say that I'm happy with the pick. While AK hasn't had the overall production of many of the players taken before and after him, I see his skill level on the ice and his Points-per-game scoring in his current stint with the Habs and I see a guy taken exactly where he should have been taken. Hopefully we can review this draft class again in five years and see him move up these lists... in the meantime, I'll just sit around and watch him feed Plekanec the puck for goal after sweet goal.