Andreas Athanasiou

[Shaman464]

Like I said, when he was a 4th liner, getting 4th line matchups, 1.3G/60.
3rd liner? Same thing.
2nd liner, same thing.

And if you look at his career, and say, only take games where he's played 18 minutes or more, that stats are solid.
39 games 18-22-40. So bigger minutes and matchups don't stop him.

Blashill doesn't like him. My guess is Blashill would love to call up one of the kids (Zadina) and bust AA down to line 3.

The smart play might be to have AA play big first line minutes, explode to 35-40 goal pace and then move him for value before he signs a big deal.

But my hope is Blashill will be fired soon and the personality conflict won't derail his career in Detroit.

I have a feeling that its no coincidence you pop up pumping the same AA stats a previous poster, about a month after he stopped posting who was AA's biggest slappy. AA was never a "4th line guy". He was always middle 6. He got 4th line minutes, but he never played on a real 4th line. So to say his numbers scale is disingenuous because he's playing against the same level competition, he just got a ton of O-zone starts prior to last season. Also, if you're going to talk about stats, his xGA, Corsi and Fenwick were all terrible last year, he was a possession nightmare, and in spite of scoring 30 goals was still a net negative when he was on the ice.

 

[MBH]

I have a feeling that its no coincidence you pop up pumping the same AA stats a previous poster, about a month after he stopped posting who was AA's biggest slappy. AA was never a "4th line guy". He was always middle 6. He got 4th line minutes, but he never played on a real 4th line. So to say his numbers scale is disingenuous because he's playing against the same level competition, he just got a ton of O-zone starts prior to last season. Also, if you're going to talk about stats, his xGA, Corsi and Fenwick were all terrible last year, he was a possession nightmare, and in spite of scoring 30 goals was still a net negative when he was on the ice.

AA played 9:01 his first season. Often playing with Luke Glendening. Fourth line.
And Dzone starts don't hurt AA's production, because so many goals are on the rush.

At some point, when a player's production beats his Corsi expectations, year over year, you have to just admit the expectations that apply on the macro levels don't apply in this specific instance.

 

[Konnan511]

He's fast. I like that. Vrooooom.

 

[Shaman464]

AA played 9:01 his first season. Often playing with Luke Glendening. Fourth line.
And Dzone starts don't hurt AA's production, because so many goals are on the rush.

At some point, when a player's production beats his Corsi expectations, year over year, you have to just admit the expectations that apply on the macro levels don't apply in this specific instance.

Its obvious you don't understand Corsi. His Corsi says he's going to be a player that will allow more goals while he's on the ice than he will create. And the states perfectly reflect that.

 

[DanZ]

Its obvious you don't understand Corsi. His Corsi says he's going to be a player that will allow more goals while he's on the ice than he will create. And the states perfectly reflect that.

Ehh you're not gunna put up good possession numbers with Glendenning as your center

 

[MBH]

Its obvious you don't understand Corsi. His Corsi says he's going to be a player that will allow more goals while he's on the ice than he will create. And the states perfectly reflect that.

I understand Corsi perfectly well.

I also understand that with a shitty defense, a shitty goalie and a bad coach with a bad gameplan, it's hard to be a plus player.

AA's GF% was higher than his expected GF%.
Why? Because he has the skill to overshoot statistical models because he creates high quality scoring opportunities like few others in the NHL.

 

[Shaman464]

Ehh you're not gunna put up good possession numbers with Glendenning as your center

When was Glendening playing center? Most of the season he was with Neilsen.

 

[Shaman464]

I understand Corsi perfectly well.

I also understand that with a ****ty defense, a ****ty goalie and a bad coach with a bad gameplan, it's hard to be a plus player.

AA's GF% was higher than his expected GF%.
Why? Because he has the skill to overshoot statistical models because he creates high quality scoring opportunities like few others in the NHL.

Okay, blame every other variable other than him, but yet other players with lesser skills in your mind had much better advance stats, and better defensive stats. Also, his xGF is in line with his actual GF, they predicted about 47, and it was 51, which is less than 10% variance.

 

[MBH]

Okay, blame every other variable other than him, but yet other players with lesser skills in your mind had much better advance stats, and better defensive stats. Also, his xGF is in line with his actual GF, they predicted about 47, and it was 51, which is less than 10% variance.

Season GF/60 XGF/60
18-19 2.32 vs 2.07
17-18 2.28 vs 2.22
16-17 2.38 vs 1.90
15-16 2.78 vs 2.62

Bests it every year. Sometimes by a little. Sometimes by a lot.

Again. Another pattern.

 

[Shaman464]

Season GF/60 XGF/60
18-19 2.32 vs 2.07
17-18 2.28 vs 2.22
16-17 2.38 vs 1.90
15-16 2.78 vs 2.62

Bests it every year. Sometimes by a little. Sometimes by a lot.

Again. Another pattern.

He beats the model by what is likely the builtin variance every season. Other than 16-17, this isn't beating prediction, but falling within normal error of models made by what amounts to fans.

 

[chris05]

Only 12 players in the NHL have more ES goals than him. (1 EN goal).
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Quite surprised to see 12 players ahead of AA in even strength goals

When you level the playing field no one will come close to AAs even strength goal numbers.

The differential equations along with the required number of integrations and integrals required to describe his play is way beyond the simple mathematical models used by so called hockey experts calling it analytics.
Grade 9 math students would tell you how terribly flawed and comical such analytics are. Anybody can use todays number system to try to justify ones existence in the NHL. And like a grade 9 physics experiment many assumptions have to be assumed true for the end result to have any meaning. This applies to numerous over rated nhl players. The ones that need a supporting cast need an abundance of playing time and favourable opportunities for them to succeed. This brings back a University memory from when NASA contracted the Nuclear Engineering department to do testing on the so called failed "O" rings. There was no number system in existence that could come close to providing the analytics or analysis for their experimental results. So the Phd brains did the next best thing... they invented a new number system to explain the conclusion of their experimental results. I don't believe there is a so called hockey expert that can capture AAs true value using todays hockey analytics. The complexity and IQ required to devise such a numbering system is way beyond the scope of any hockey expert.

 

[DanZ]

When was Glendening playing center? Most of the season he was with Neilsen.

Not much better. And he did play with Glendening a lot.

 

[MBH]

Not much better. And he did play with Glendening a lot.

Athanasiou
324 minutes with Glendening. 8-6-14
297 minutes with Nielsen. 7-4-11.

By comparison.
Mantha's top linemates.
595 minutes with Larkin. 7-10-16
262 minutes with Bertuzzi. 3-6-9.

AA had more goals with Glendening and almost as many points in a little more than half the icetime that Mantha had with Larkin - the team's leading scorer.

The other advantage Mantha - not just a better linemate - but more consistent linemates. A chance to develop consistency and chemistry.

In the Mantha for Risto trade discussions, I've seen Red Wings talk about their willingness to perhaps trade Athanasiou, but not Mantha.

And I really don't think they realized with Athanasiou accomplished last year.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Athanasiou scored 27 ES goals last year, good for #14 in the league.
This year his linemates are Glendening (who has a career maximum of 13 assists in a year) and Hirose (an undrafted kid with 15 total NHL games experience).

I'm not really outraged or anything, I just think this is funny. Leaguewide are there any better examples of better talent paired with weaker support?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Athanasiou scored 27 ES goals last year, good for #14 in the league.
This year his linemates are Glendening (who has a career maximum of 13 assists in a year) and Hirose (an undrafted kid with 15 total NHL games experience).

I'm not really outraged or anything, I just think this is funny. Leaguewide are there any better examples of better talent paired with weaker support?

probably