Player Discussion: Anders Lee

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Completely agree with this.

Lee is a lumbering post up big in a game that's trending towards speed. He's a throwback to an older era. He's much better than Moulson, but he is the same type of one dimensional player that benefitted from big minutes in favorable conditions. He is probably the best at what he does in the league, that type of player can score goals in any era. He ideally should be on the 3rd line at ES and on the top PP, he can score 30 goals in that deployment strategy easily.

Paying him like a #1LW with the majority of his contract involving his 30's gives me serious pause. He's got the best one dimension you can have, we can get a lot for him in the trade market and we can scratch for goals in his absence.

Fixed it for you. You do know he can be traded when he declines, right?

 

[ndgolden]

Once an Islanders fan always an Islanders fan.

 

[Seph]

None of your comments disappoint me, LOL Just the basis of your arguments are unfounded and full of holes. Lets just both agree that Lou will do whats right by the Isles Crest and whether he is traded or signed Lou probably knows more than you and I.

I do find it humorous that you were fine paying #91 12+ million over 8 years without any real concern for his declining play or speed despite 91 failing to outscore 27 the last two years. Also Lee had more primary assists to #91 than #91 to Lee during the last two years, but lets not let facts cloud our judgement.

Lee had 52 and 62 pts the last two season, whereas Tavares had 66 and 84. Last season, Tavares had 18 total assists last season to Lee, 11 of which were primary, whereas Lee had 13 total assists to Tavares, 10 of which were primary. The season prior, Tavares had 11 assists to Lee, 4 of which were primary, and Lee had 6 assists to Tavares, 3 of which were primary.

Also worth noting that Lee's possession stats last season also droped dramatically at 5 on 5 when not playing with Tavares, whereas Tavares' either remained stable or went up when not playing with Lee.

I like Lee, but if we're going to compare him to Tavares statistically, Tavares comes out on top pretty easily if you don't skew the stats to fit your agenda.

 

[dlawong]

How about trade him plus another roster player or prospect for Trouba who will be UFA after this year (provided that Jet will give Isles permission to talk to Trouba's agent). That is if Jet is willing to put Trouba on the market at some point of next season. Fail that I would consider trading him for Virtanen of the Canucks plus a 2019 2nd or 3rd rounder.

As much as I like Lee and value what he does, I think he should get no more than 5.5 M and signed no longer than 5 years. For 7 M, I will look around the league for other potential wingers.

 

[CREW99AW]

How about trade him plus another roster player or prospect for Trouba who will be UFA after this year (provided that Jet will give Isles permission to talk to Trouba's agent). That is if Jet is willing to put Trouba on the market at some point of next season. Fail that I would consider trading him for Virtanen of the Canucks plus a 2019 2nd or 3rd rounder.

As much as I like Lee and value what he does, I think he should get no more than 5.5 M and signed no longer than 5 years. For 7 M, I will look around the league for other potential wingers.

If I am Winnipeg with several young vets looking for raises,I do not want a soon to be ufa, looking for a huge payday.
I want young, cost controlled assets like Pulock and Beau.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Lee had 52 and 62 pts the last two season, whereas Tavares had 66 and 84. Last season, Tavares had 18 total assists last season to Lee, 11 of which were primary, whereas Lee had 13 total assists to Tavares, 10 of which were primary. The season prior, Tavares had 11 assists to Lee, 4 of which were primary, and Lee had 6 assists to Tavares, 3 of which were primary.

Also worth noting that Lee's possession stats last season also droped dramatically at 5 on 5 when not playing with Tavares, whereas Tavares' either remained stable or went up when not playing with Lee.

I like Lee, but if we're going to compare him to Tavares statistically, Tavares comes out on top pretty easily if you don't skew the stats to fit your agenda.

Where's a rejection gif when you need it!

 

[LAIslanderFan]

Gotta laugh at the detractors as PW and LA guy clearly feel he is a forty goal scoring slough. The Islanders really need to let this kid go if he truly is so one dimensional, especially when he can be easily replaced. Hopefully some team can use someone who simply can score goals. I tend to rely on facts, and you two clearly do not. Maybe spend some time researching first before simply throwing this stuff out there. It just makes you look foolish.

So you think Lee is a perennial 40 goal scorer? Boy do you have a surprise in store for you. If you want to talk stats, have you asked yourself how Lee scored 40 goals last year and was a -25??? How does that happen. Lee has great hands and he's very good in a 12x12 space in front of the net. He's actually quite awful everywhere else on the ice. You take away a dominant player like John Tavares and his weaknesses will be exposed. He can't skate, and it annoys me that he never seemed to work on that aspect of the game. He's very slow and he's just a body in the defensive zone and the neutral zone.
His 40 goal days are history. Last year will absolutely be his career year, he'll never come close to that again (although you probably disagree based on those stats you quoted). He'll score 20, possibly 25 goals and his numbers will slowly drift downward over the next few years. The Islanders should trade him now while they can still get some value.

 

[Quickdraw2828]

Where's a rejection gif when you need it!

 

[LeapOnOver]

Haha, i was thinking more like a basketball rejection, but this will suffice!

 

[sabremike]

Any time someone uses +/- like the stat isn't horribly flawed I roll my eyes. It's like using a won/loss record to judge a pitcher these days (hi Jacob deGrom!), the stat has almost no value whatsoever, there are numerous stats that have far far far more value.

 

[LAIslanderFan]

Any time someone uses +/- like the stat isn't horribly flawed I roll my eyes. It's like using a won/loss record to judge a pitcher these days (hi Jacob deGrom!), the stat has almost no value whatsoever, there are numerous stats that have far far far more value.

If you want to use baseball to prove your point, I would use ERA as a better example, but comparing the two sports is kind of moronic.
I would argue the +- stat is relative where there are extremes involved, like scoring 40 goals and being -25. By the way, I was down on Moulsen (how's that working out in Buffalo?) when he was with the Islanders much the same way I'm down with Lee, I had the exact same criticisms. I got plenty of blowback at the time telling me to look at his goal output and "to rely on facts". Well, we know all about Moulsen's career after Tavares, Lee will face similar issues. Moulsen was actually more responsible defensively then Lee, although Lee's weakness on defense has nothing to do with effort, he's just a horrible skater and has difficulty skating with the puck.

 

[JPIsles21]

If you want to use baseball to prove your point, I would use ERA as a better example, but comparing the two sports is kind of moronic.
I would argue the +- stat is relative where there are extremes involved, like scoring 40 goals and being -25. By the way, I was down on Moulsen (how's that working out in Buffalo?) when he was with the Islanders much the same way I'm down with Lee, I had the exact same criticisms. I got plenty of blowback at the time telling me to look at his goal output and "to rely on facts". Well, we know all about Moulsen's career after Tavares, Lee will face similar issues. Moulsen was actually more responsible defensively then Lee, although Lee's weakness on defense has nothing to do with effort, he's just a horrible skater and has difficulty skating with the puck.

Very little of this is actually true.

1) Lee is not a horrible skater with the puck. He's no Grabner, but he is strong on the puck and does an excellent job protecting the puck especially in the offensive zone.

2) He has a power forward skill set. He is an elite goal scorer and consistently gets chances in high danger scoring areas.

3) The -25 is more of a symptom of an overall broken system. He was a +9 the year before. He didn't forget how to play defense in one year. The whole line allowed a ton of chances on goal when they were on the ice.

4) He's a much better player than Moulson. Both the advanced stats and the eye test confirm that. It's not even close.

5) Even with all of the above, I would still try to trade Lee before the trade deadline. His game will likely not age well, and we already have some pretty bad contracts. He will likely get around 7 mil a year for 5-7 years. That takes him through age 33-35. I imagine only two of those years will be useful.

 

[buud]

i think we are going to start seeing a trend, in which only top players are offered 8 year contracts. guys like Lee, good complimentary pieces, will be getting 5-6 year offers. not necessarily collusion between owners, just a 'practice' that makes good economic sense.

i offer Lee 6 years at $6, and if he says no, trade him.

all teams have overpaid players. with Boychuk and Ladd leaving in a few years (probably), Lee would be a great mentor for the youth. but, as it seems to elude some posters, the choice is his. Skinner just chose to go to Buffalo, and i can only guess that he told the GM (good stuff. this is honuorable. hear that, JT?) that he wants to be close to home, and that IF they want anything from a trade, to do it now. otherwise, in a year, he is just going to walk away, and leave them (CAR) with nothing.

this is not computer hockey.

 

[CREW99AW]

i think we are going to start seeing a trend, in which only top players are offered 8 year contracts. guys like Lee, good complimentary pieces, will be getting 5-6 year offers. not necessarily collusion between owners, just a 'practice' that makes good economic sense.

i offer Lee 6 years at $6, and if he says no, trade him.

all teams have overpaid players. with Boychuk and Ladd leaving in a few years (probably), Lee would be a great mentor for the youth. but, as it seems to elude some posters, the choice is his. Skinner just chose to go to Buffalo, and i can only guess that he told the GM (good stuff. this is honuorable. hear that, JT?) that he wants to be close to home, and that IF they want anything from a trade, to do it now. otherwise, in a year, he is just going to walk away, and leave them (CAR) with nothing.

this is not computer hockey.

Too often owners fail to practice good economic sense.
Once they start bidding against each other, common sense flies out the window.
SJ reportedly offered Tavares $13m per. Not sour grapes to say this ppg player is not worth $13m per.

 

[JPIsles21]

Too often owners fail to practice good economic sense.
Once they start bidding against each other, common sense flies out the window.
SJ reportedly offered Tavares $13m per. Not sour grapes to say this ppg player is not worth $13m per.

I've had this internal debate many times. The 13 mil seems steep for JT. However, say a team does sign someone like him for that number (2-3 million "overpayment), is it really that bad? Since most GMs can't help themselves spend irresponsibly, maybe this would mean not re-signing a Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Martin, or signing a Komarov.

The idea of overpaying a true star is a lot less frightening to me. The whole point of not overspending is that so you can spend money improving your roster in other places. However, this doesn't happen often. Instead teams overspend for bottom 6/third pairing players instead of giving cheaper and younger players a longer leash.

Bottom line is that stars and superstars win games and championships. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, etc. Yes, Vegas made a run with a group of nobodies, but a lot of that was due to Fleury getting hot at the right time.

The Leafs are currently building towards that model: paying stars like stars and not overpaying depth players. This is a much better formula for long-term success. They will have the money to re-sign Mathews, Marner, Nylander, and will have room to add because they haven't practiced fiscal irresponsibility with depth players thus far. They did with Lou though. That reflects poorly for us.

Lee is a good player but will age poorly I believe. Once he is on the wrong side of 30, whatever contract he gets will not look good at all. That would be a worthy pill to swallow if we did not have so much cap space tied up in 4th liners for term. But we do unfortunately. I'd trade Lee at the deadline so we can get younger and cheaper to solidify our core of Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Martin, Komarov (combined 12.35 mil cap hit). So while JTs potential cap hit for 13 mil may seem steep, ask yourself if you'd be willing to shed all those contracts to sign him. The Isles overspend poorly.

 

[Thrasymachus]

San Jose really could have used Tavares, for 13 mil I think he would have worked out for them. They don't have a Mathews or a Barzal to pay.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Lee is a good player but will age poorly I believe. Once he is on the wrong side of 30, whatever contract he gets will not look good at all. That would be a worthy pill to swallow if we did not have so much cap space tied up in 4th liners for term. But we do unfortunately. I'd trade Lee at the deadline so we can get younger and cheaper to solidify our core of Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Martin, Komarov (combined 12.35 mil cap hit). So while JTs potential cap hit for 13 mil may seem steep, ask yourself if you'd be willing to shed all those contracts to sign him. The Isles overspend poorly.

So why not trade the fourth liners and hold onto the goal scorer? The four guys you mentioned have skill sets much easier to replace. Younger and cheaper means we are not trying to win.

 

[scott99]

So you think Lee is a perennial 40 goal scorer? Boy do you have a surprise in store for you. If you want to talk stats, have you asked yourself how Lee scored 40 goals last year and was a -25??? How does that happen. Lee has great hands and he's very good in a 12x12 space in front of the net. He's actually quite awful everywhere else on the ice. You take away a dominant player like John Tavares and his weaknesses will be exposed. He can't skate, and it annoys me that he never seemed to work on that aspect of the game. He's very slow and he's just a body in the defensive zone and the neutral zone.
His 40 goal days are history. Last year will absolutely be his career year, he'll never come close to that again (although you probably disagree based on those stats you quoted). He'll score 20, possibly 25 goals and his numbers will slowly drift downward over the next few years. The Islanders should trade him now while they can still get some value.

If I was a betting man, I would bet you A LOT of money that you are dead wrong. And you are dead wrong about his skating too. He HAS worked on it, and he is a better skater than he was his first year. Lee will score 30+ goals this year. Barzal is a better playmaker than Tavares, and Lee will see a ton of power play time with Barzal. AND they may play together on the 1st line, though it's tough to break up the Eberle-Barzal-Beauvillier line with the chemistry they showed last year.

If Bailey becomes Lee's center, he will score 30+. Bailey is a great passer. Either way, Lee will produce, he always has, he AVERAGES 29.6 goals per every 82 games. This includes his one BAD season of 15 goals. Take away that season, he averages 34 goals per every 82 games. Lee is a goal scorer, plain and simple.



Did Lee kick your dog or something ?

 

[JPIsles21]

So why not trade the fourth liners and hold onto the goal scorer? The four guys you mentioned have skill sets much easier to replace. Younger and cheaper means we are not trying to win.

Most GMs with the exception of a few (Lou, Benning, Bergevin, Dorion, maybe some others) do not see the value in overpaid 4th liners. It's going to be extremely difficult to move these contracts. The best we can hope for is a random good year from one of them, and deal them. Unfortunately, I don't think Lou sees it the way most of us do. The low-skill, gritty model doesn't work anymore. Our only hope is that this truly was a systems issue, and perhaps Trotz can turn these players into useful contributors.

If we didn't have so much overpaid trash on our team, then signing Lee/Eberle would make a lot more sense. Unfortunately, that's not how our team is currently built.

 

[crasherino]

If I was a betting man, I would bet you A LOT of money that you are dead wrong. And you are dead wrong about his skating too. He HAS worked on it, and he is a better skater than he was his first year. Lee will score 30+ goals this year. Barzal is a better playmaker than Tavares, and Lee will see a ton of power play time with Barzal. AND they may play together on the 1st line, though it's tough to break up the Eberle-Barzal-Beauvillier line with the chemistry they showed last year.

If Bailey becomes Lee's center, he will score 30+. Bailey is a great passer. Either way, Lee will produce, he always has, he AVERAGES 29.6 goals per every 82 games. This includes his one BAD season of 15 goals. Take away that season, he averages 34 goals per every 82 games. Lee is a goal scorer, plain and simple.



Did Lee kick your dog or something ?

I'm wit you. I'll put the over/under at around 28 goals and wouldn't have a problem taking the over there. Lee just finds ways to score goals. That's been the case since day one. And while he might slow down as he ages, its not as if his goals were a product of his speed. He can play his primary game for the next 5 years if healthy. And I don't think he's had any major injuries other than a broken leg from a Boychuk slapshot to the leg.

I also don't think he'll be traded simply because he won't return the oil package that we'll need to justify getting rid of one of our core. I think everything is on the table in Lou's mind right now but trading Lee for a 1st rounder and B prospect doesn't really make sense. He's not a flawless player by any means, but he fits into this team well, he brings unique skills that don't appear to be declining in the near future and by all accounts he wants to be here. A team made up of ALL Anders Lee's won't succeed in today's NHL - that's true. But having the real deal is an asset - most people here seem to take him very much for granted and focus too much on the negatives. Will he score 40 goals without Pajama Boy? Probably not. But he'll get more than his share. I'm confident of that.

I'd sign him to a 6 year deal and worry about our next issue - we have plenty of those.

 

[Medvescak]

No way do you trade him now until you see how/where he is deployed in a Trotz system and whether he flourishes or not. Dude is a gem that doesn't fear going into the dirty areas to get his goals, hard to move off the puck in front of the net and has a nose for the net.
Regarding his longevity, I don't think he plays such a bruising style that his body would break down too prematurely (Clutter/Martin). Anders is a great athlete in top shape and relatively injury free, I think his body can withstand the normal rigors of the NHL.

 

[sabremike]

People eager to trade Lee for some amazing return as a rental should realize this: we just traded ROR because our GM decided to make a completely stupid decision. Not only is he locked up long term, he is among the best 2 way players in the entire sport. What amazing bounty did we get for him? A late 2019 first rounder, a late 2020 second rounder, a C level prospect whose absolute ceiling is being as good as Casey Czizikas (ie: decent bottom 6 guy), a 3rd line center who is the definition of mediocre with an awful contract to boot (Berglund) and a guy who at this point is near Cal Clutterbuck level of suck (Sobotka). So yeah, if he gets traded I doubt he gets an amazing return.

 

[ndgolden]

He's actually quite awful everywhere else on the ice. You take away a dominant player like John Tavares and his weaknesses will be exposed. He can't skate, and it annoys me that he never seemed to work on that aspect of the game. He's very slow and he's just a body in the defensive zone and the neutral zone.
His 40 goal days are history. Last year will absolutely be his career year, he'll never come close to that again He'll score 20, possibly 25 goals and his numbers will slowly drift downward over the next few years. The Islanders should trade him now while they can still get some value.

LA, who in this video is Lee reliant on? That is all I ask.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

His 40 goal days are history. Last year will absolutely be his career year, he'll never come close to that again (although you probably disagree based on those stats you quoted). He'll score 20, possibly 25 goals and his numbers will slowly drift downward over the next few years. The Islanders should trade him now while they can still get some value.

I am taking the over on 25 goals for the next three year, easily. Anders is still a ways away from Ladd's career trajectory. Maybe Barzal should be traded before he declines, too.

 

[Medvescak]

LA, who in this video is Lee reliant on? That is all I ask.

Video kinda says it all - good one. Methinks he will survive without TR91TOR.
Seems like he clicked very well with Bailey on alot of those goals
And how bout that Bailey, Beau, Lee line !